RE: Game Week: @UB
Buffalo comes in at 3-8, and have really struggled to score this year. They lost at home to a 6-4 FCS team in Fordham. Their three wins are against two of the worst MAC teams, Kent State and Akron, and they needed OT to beat Akron like we did. Their big win was crushing CMU at home.
Watching them against Miami-OH, they remind me of Akron on offense. One of their QBs is Cole Snyder, he struggles to complete just 55% of his passes with 13 TDs and 9 INTs. He isn't much of a runner, but they played CJ Ogbonna quite a bit and he is. He only has 19 attempts on the year, and only threw twice against Miami. That is why I said they were kind of like Akron, if Ogbonna is in there they are going to run. Their offense hasn't move the ball well though. They are running team, but they only average 3.6 YPC, and their leading rush (Cook) barely gets to 4 YPC. Their offense is a bit like ours, except I think we can run the ball better then they can, and they have the obvious tell of a run is coming when Ogbonna is in. With Snyder there is the pass threat, but again he doesn't complete a ton of his passes, and they only get about 185 yards through the air...which isn't great in modern football.
There strength is clearly their defense. With Gabbert out for Miami, their backup is more of duel-threat. He ran for 60 on his own and as a team they were at 180. So in watching that game, I though a run game featuring Samson in the cold, getting Austin more involved in the run game, and Jaylon on the edge could be effective. Get some short, quick routes in the pass game so Austin can get it out quick and not have to process too much too quickly. Their defense is their strength, but they do up nearly 370 yards a game. We need to stay on schedule, no penalties, limit the negative plays and I think we can move it some on them.
Their kicker McNulty and Jesus were probably the best in the MAC last year, but McNulty has struggled this year hitting just 10-18 field goals.
Buffalo has no postseason hopes, so this could go one of two ways; they could mail it in and be ready for the offseason or come out fired up and pissed off to end our season since there is ending too. If I had to guess, I'd say the later is more likely.
These are two similar teams. This is going to be a rock fight! We need to put together our best game of the season, and most importantly the cleanest game of the year! No dumb penalties, staying on schedule on offense, getting off the field on 3rd/4th downs while converting our 3rd downs.
As of now it's supposed to be a mid-40s, rainy day in Buffalo. ESPN has us with just a 35.3% change of winning this game...I think our odds are better than that.
|
