The polls have always been rigged popularity contests with little substance behind them. Same as it ever was.

(10-15-2023 01:32 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 10:36 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Remaining Schedule except conference champ game (Massey Composite at this writing)

Air Force (23):
Navy (100)
Colo St (97)
Army (103)
Hawaii (120)
UNLV (59)
Boise St (76)

Tulane (30):
North Tx (111)
Rice (106)
ECU (114)
Tulsa (92)
FAU (87)
UTSA (91)

Without consideration of the conference champ game, AF has the toughest remaining schedule because of UNLV and away game at Boise. If AF wins out, they will very likely earn the NY6 bowl bid. Depending on the nature of the loss (e.g., opponent), AF could absorb a loss and still go to a NY6 bowl. Tulane has to win out unless AF bombs (pun intended).

Nobody knows anything until the CFP ratings come out. They’ll use their own criteria, which is usually political. Because it’s political, my guess is this:

They rank AFA 1-2 spots ahead of Tulane. That way, if both win out, undefeated AFA goes; but if they lose one and Tulane wins out, Tulane goes. They structure the initial rankings in such a way as to avoid putting themselves in a difficult spot later. They always set things up so that they will “work themselves out.”

Throw out every other ranking because only the CFP matters.

From at least 2018 through 2022 seasons, the top final Massey Composite G-5 listed was also the NY6 representative. It is a reason I use Massey Composite until the CFP rankings are released.

If both #22 Air Force & #24 Tulane win out, I think Tulane gets the Access Bowl based on the strength of their overall schedule.

The MWC only has 5 teams (41% of MWC conference) at .500 or better right now. For comparison, the AAC has 9 teams (64% of MWC conference) at .500 or better right now.

(10-15-2023 01:57 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 01:32 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 10:36 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Remaining Schedule except conference champ game (Massey Composite at this writing)

Air Force (23):
Navy (100)
Colo St (97)
Army (103)
Hawaii (120)
UNLV (59)
Boise St (76)

Tulane (30):
North Tx (111)
Rice (106)
ECU (114)
Tulsa (92)
FAU (87)
UTSA (91)

Without consideration of the conference champ game, AF has the toughest remaining schedule because of UNLV and away game at Boise. If AF wins out, they will very likely earn the NY6 bowl bid. Depending on the nature of the loss (e.g., opponent), AF could absorb a loss and still go to a NY6 bowl. Tulane has to win out unless AF bombs (pun intended).

Nobody knows anything until the CFP ratings come out. They’ll use their own criteria, which is usually political. Because it’s political, my guess is this:

They rank AFA 1-2 spots ahead of Tulane. That way, if both win out, undefeated AFA goes; but if they lose one and Tulane wins out, Tulane goes. They structure the initial rankings in such a way as to avoid putting themselves in a difficult spot later. They always set things up so that they will “work themselves out.”

Throw out every other ranking because only the CFP matters.

From at least 2018 through 2022 seasons, the top final Massey Composite G-5 listed was also the NY6 representative. It is a reason I use Massey Composite until the CFP rankings are released.

That’s an impressive correlation.

I’m curious if we’ve seen the same correlation on WEEK ONE of the CFP rankings?

My guess (and very loose recollection) says you would not. I think the correlation is the effect of other polls (many of which are human-driven) migrating to match the CFP list, not the other way around.

(10-15-2023 03:33 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 01:57 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 01:32 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 10:36 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Remaining Schedule except conference champ game (Massey Composite at this writing)

Air Force (23):
Navy (100)
Colo St (97)
Army (103)
Hawaii (120)
UNLV (59)
Boise St (76)

Tulane (30):
North Tx (111)
Rice (106)
ECU (114)
Tulsa (92)
FAU (87)
UTSA (91)

Without consideration of the conference champ game, AF has the toughest remaining schedule because of UNLV and away game at Boise. If AF wins out, they will very likely earn the NY6 bowl bid. Depending on the nature of the loss (e.g., opponent), AF could absorb a loss and still go to a NY6 bowl. Tulane has to win out unless AF bombs (pun intended).

Nobody knows anything until the CFP ratings come out. They’ll use their own criteria, which is usually political. Because it’s political, my guess is this:

They rank AFA 1-2 spots ahead of Tulane. That way, if both win out, undefeated AFA goes; but if they lose one and Tulane wins out, Tulane goes. They structure the initial rankings in such a way as to avoid putting themselves in a difficult spot later. They always set things up so that they will “work themselves out.”

Throw out every other ranking because only the CFP matters.

From at least 2018 through 2022 seasons, the top final Massey Composite G-5 listed was also the NY6 representative. It is a reason I use Massey Composite until the CFP rankings are released.

That’s an impressive correlation.

I’m curious if we’ve seen the same correlation on WEEK ONE of the CFP rankings?

My guess (and very loose recollection) says you would not. I think the correlation is the effect of other polls (many of which are human-driven) migrating to match the CFP list, not the other way around.

No, it does not correlate to the best of my recollection. However, the longer the season goes, the better it gets. Like all metrics, it is imperfect, but it is readily available and offers a reasonable likelihood of accuracy. I am open to better methods.

Massey Composite makes a much better approximation than, say, pure W/L record, to what the CFP rankings will be. Carry on!

All that matters is that Navy wins this week. ROLL GOATS!

What’s ridiculous was Tulane falling from #9 to end last year to #23 to start this year. I will also say something you are overlooking is ole miss. The better ole miss does that greatly helps Tulane.

(10-15-2023 04:42 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  All that matters is that Navy wins this week. ROLL GOATS!

AFA by 10 according to Vegas.
Vegas obviously biased with UNLV in the conference out there.

Go Navy!

(10-15-2023 04:43 PM)Greenwavedrownsacat Wrote:  What’s ridiculous was Tulane falling from #9 to end last year to #23 to start this year. I will also say something you are overlooking is ole miss. The better ole miss does that greatly helps Tulane.

Navy destroying Air Force and in effect making Wyoming and Fresno look bad, that would help the best. But yeah, Ole Miss winning the SEC would be alright too.

(10-15-2023 04:54 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 04:43 PM)Greenwavedrownsacat Wrote:  What’s ridiculous was Tulane falling from #9 to end last year to #23 to start this year. I will also say something you are overlooking is ole miss. The better ole miss does that greatly helps Tulane.

Navy destroying Air Force and in effect making Wyoming and Fresno look bad, that would help the best. But yeah, Ole Miss winning the SEC would be alright too.

Yes to the first.

I’m ok with Ole Miss maintaining a high ranking to help Tulane.

I simply cannot root for them to win the SEC, sorry, gotta draw the line somewhere.

According the Commerical Appeal, the Tigers even now hold a very slim opportunity to earn a NY6 slot. However, it would require a complex chain of favorable occurrences too numerous to list. In other words, a miracle...

The news is better for the Tigers to earn a berth in the conference championship game. Boiled down, Memphis must win out and Tulane must beat FAU and/or UTSA.

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/s...099162007/

(10-16-2023 08:14 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  According the Commerical Appeal, the Tigers even now hold a very slim opportunity to earn a NY6 slot. However, it would require a complex chain of favorable occurrences too numerous to list. In other words, a miracle...

The news is better for the Tigers to earn a berth in the conference championship game. Boiled down, Memphis must win out and Tulane must beat FAU and/or UTSA.

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/s...099162007/

Best scenario for the AAC to keep NY6 Bowl slot.
Tulane goes on undefeated rest of way and both SMU and Memphis win out. The winner of SMU and Memphis at 10-2 then play an 11-1 Tulane in AAC Championship

(10-15-2023 05:02 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I’m ok with Ole Miss maintaining a high ranking to help Tulane.

I simply cannot root for them to win the SEC, sorry, gotta draw the line somewhere.

Good news for owl at the moon: Ole Miss will probably go 10-2 with losses @Alabama and @Georgia — so a final (pre-bowls) ranking of about #10 or #11, but missing out on the SECCG.

So After Week 8
Unbeaten
Air Force 7-0 MWC #19 AP #19 Coaches
James Madison 7-0 SBC #25 AP #25 Coaches- Ineligible
Liberty 7-0 CUSA

Once Beaten
Tulane 6-1 AAC #22 AP #23 Coaches
Fresno 6-1 MWC
Georgia St 6-1 SBC
Toledo 7-1 MAC
UNLV 6-1 MWC

This is the most wide open NY6 race is recent memory. There are at least five schools that have a very fair shake to take the bid.

There also is time for some 2007 type of chaos.

(10-22-2023 06:14 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  This is the most wide open NY6 race is recent memory. There are at least five schools that have a very fair shake to take the bid.

There also is time for some 2007 type of chaos.

Oh absolutely and remember is the Conference Championship Game champions so you could have some that could be knocked out on that game.

James Madison may be ineligible for the NY6 but might still be national champs! Would love that

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/17...ing_for_a/

If Ole Miss keeps winning they should pull Tulane up the polls with them

(10-22-2023 10:40 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  James Madison may be ineligible for the NY6 but might still be national champs! Would love that

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/17...ing_for_a/

You mean like ucf?

If they win out the SBC should really push for NCAA to allow them to play because they are their best bet for that NY6 bid.

Right now still looks like MWC with Air Force and Fresno or AAC with Tulane ,SMU as the main challengers