The goal should be to have 2-4 teams in the top 100 of the NET each year and no teams below 225-250. If we can do that, we will return to being a top 10 conference.

Finally found this fan site again.

https://bboilercbb.github.io/conferences...index.html

Shows computer projections for order of finish, percent change each week, etc.

(02-13-2024 10:58 AM)freshtop Wrote:  Finally found this fan site again.

https://bboilercbb.github.io/conferences...index.html

Shows computer projections for order of finish, percent change each week, etc.

The amazing thing with those projections is that today, in mid-February, 7 of 9 CUSA teams (77.8%) still have at least a slim mathematical chance of finishing in 1st place in the conference.

By way of comparison, the American has 6 of 14 (42.9%), the SEC has 7 of 14 (50%), the Sun Belt only has 4 of 14 (28.6%), the ACC only has 4 of 15 (26.7%), the Big Ten only has 3 of 14 (21.4%), and the PAC only has 2 of 12 (16.7%).

(02-13-2024 10:04 AM)Shadow_Son Wrote:  The goal should be to have 2-4 teams in the top 100 of the NET each year and no teams below 225-250. If we can do that, we will return to being a top 10 conference.

We've been in the Top 100 almost the entire season and all this calendar year. Our many freshmen are becoming more experienced.

2023-24 NET data as of 2.17.24.

CUSA
Louisiana Tech 87
Liberty 113
Western Ky. 137
Delaware 145
Sam Houston 180
Jacksonville St. 187
UTEP 212
Kennesaw St. 254
New Mexico St. 272
Middle Tenn. 298
FIU 299
Average 199

Average conference comps
2022-23 final average in ()
MWC (88) 103
A-10 (167) 124
MVC (189) 136
AAC (135) 148
WAC (153) 190
CUSA (150) 199
SBC (180) 208
MAC (212) 234

Below shows the number of Quad 1 wins and the number of Quad 4 losses (AKA good wins vs bad losses).

CUSA (the Quad 1 win came from future CUSA member Delaware)
Quad 1 wins - 1
Quad 4 losses - 43

AAC
Quad 1 wins - 9
Quad 4 losses - 24

A-10
Quad 1 wins - 11
Quad 4 losses - 22

MAC
Quad 1 wins - 0
Quad 4 losses - 46

MWC
Quad 1 wins - 29
Quad 4 losses - 17

SBC
Quad 1 wins - 3
Quad 4 losses - 60

WAC
Quad 1 wins - 1
Quad 4 losses - 34

Rumored future CUSA members
UMass 91
MoSt 142
Tarleton St 148
EKU 198

I have been a staunch critic of the "NET rankings" since its inception. The NCAA creating their own ranking system to determine the fate of bubble teams in March was only ever going to have a heavy bias towards the P5. The formula is clear: water down your non-conference schedule as much as possible, beat those teams by 30-50+, then benefit from playing only Q1 and Q2 games in conference so your ranking stays intact. Glad SVP is shedding light on this.

https://x.com/StanfordSteve82/status/176...64033?s=20

(02-28-2024 09:37 AM)Shadow_Son Wrote:  I have been a staunch critic of the "NET rankings" since its inception. The NCAA creating their own ranking system to determine the fate of bubble teams in March was only ever going to have a heavy bias towards the P5. The formula is clear: water down your non-conference schedule as much as possible, beat those teams by 30-50+, then benefit from playing only Q1 and Q2 games in conference so your ranking stays intact. Glad SVP is shedding light on this.

https://x.com/StanfordSteve82/status/176...64033?s=20

Yeah. Didn't they change RPI to NET once the non-spoonfed conference teams figured out RPI ?

(02-28-2024 09:40 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  

(02-28-2024 09:37 AM)Shadow_Son Wrote:  I have been a staunch critic of the "NET rankings" since its inception. The NCAA creating their own ranking system to determine the fate of bubble teams in March was only ever going to have a heavy bias towards the P5. The formula is clear: water down your non-conference schedule as much as possible, beat those teams by 30-50+, then benefit from playing only Q1 and Q2 games in conference so your ranking stays intact. Glad SVP is shedding light on this.

https://x.com/StanfordSteve82/status/176...64033?s=20

Yeah. Didn't they change RPI to NET once the non-spoonfed conference teams figured out RPI ?

They're all like this.

The only way to break the system is to schedule nothing but Q1/Q2 opponents on your nonconference schedule so that you don't slip as far once you start playing Q3/Q4 teams on your conference schedule.

The tradeoff, of course, is that by doing so, you're opening yourself up to be beaten down by 30-40 points by those same Q1/Q2 teams, helping them and hurting your own cause.

So what I'm trying to say is... we're probably going to be a single-bid conference, along with every other non-Power conference.

2023-24 NET data as of 2.28.24. Please note that I did move UMass from the A-10 to the MAC in these figures. The MAC average NET improved by 11 spots.

I also did a "what if" WKU moved to the MAC. CUSA drops 6 spots to 207 and the MAC increases 6 spots to 217. UMass and WKU combined would improve the MAC by 16 spots.

Lastly, sorry the delay. I usually do this on Sunday's but I was in NYC for a business trip.

CUSA
Louisiana Tech 83
Liberty 120
Western Ky. 145
Delaware 155
Sam Houston 166
Jacksonville St. 181
UTEP 226
Kennesaw St. 251
New Mexico St. 287
Middle Tenn. 298
FIU 299
Average 201

Average conference comps
2022-23 final average in ()
MWC (88) 105
A-10 (167) 123
MVC (189) 137
AAC (135) 146
WAC (153) 192
CUSA (150) 201
SBC (180) 208
MAC (212) 223

Below shows the number of Quad 1 wins and the number of Quad 4 losses (AKA good wins vs bad losses).

CUSA (the Quad 1 win came from future CUSA member Delaware)
Quad 1 wins - 1
Quad 4 losses - 48

AAC
Quad 1 wins - 4
Quad 4 losses - 28

A-10
Quad 1 wins - 11
Quad 4 losses - 20

MAC
Quad 1 wins - 1
Quad 4 losses - 53

MWC
Quad 1 wins - 34
Quad 4 losses - 17

SBC
Quad 1 wins - 3
Quad 4 losses - 57

WAC
Quad 1 wins - 2
Quad 4 losses - 36

Rumored future CUSA members
MoSt 154
Tarleton St 141
EKU 195

2023-24 NET data as of 3.3.24.

CUSA
Louisiana Tech 86
Liberty 129
Western Ky. 148
Sam Houston 161
Delaware 164
UTEP 191
Jacksonville St. 198
Kennesaw St. 256
New Mexico St. 286
FIU 296
Middle Tenn. 302
Average 202

Average conference comps
2022-23 final average in ()
MWC (88) 105
A-10 (167) 124
MVC (189) 138
AAC (135) 145
WAC (153) 190
CUSA (150) 202
SBC (180) 208
MAC (212) 223

Below shows the number of Quad 1 wins and the number of Quad 4 losses (AKA good wins vs bad losses).

CUSA (the Quad 1 win came from future CUSA member Delaware)
Quad 1 wins - 1
Quad 4 losses - 52

AAC
Quad 1 wins - 7
Quad 4 losses - 28

A-10
Quad 1 wins - 12
Quad 4 losses - 21

MAC
Quad 1 wins - 1
Quad 4 losses - 55

MWC
Quad 1 wins - 28
Quad 4 losses - 18

SBC
Quad 1 wins - 3
Quad 4 losses - 48

WAC
Quad 1 wins - 2
Quad 4 losses - 41

Rumored future CUSA members
Tarleton St 133
MoSt 158
EKU 205

2023-24 NET data as of 3.16.24. Likely my last time updating this until the end of the tournament.

CUSA
Louisiana Tech 99
Western Ky. 136
Liberty 141
Sam Houston 152
Delaware 167
UTEP 184
Jacksonville St. 216
Kennesaw St. 261
Middle Tenn. 288
New Mexico St. 289
FIU 294
Average 202

Average conference comps
2022-23 final average in ()
MWC (88) 105
A-10 (167) 121
MVC (189) 138
AAC (135) 143
WAC (153) 192
CUSA (150) 202
SBC (180) 209
MAC (212) 222

Below shows the number of Quad 1 wins and the number of Quad 4 losses (AKA good wins vs bad losses).

CUSA (the Quad 1 win came from future CUSA member Delaware)
Quad 1 wins - 1
Quad 4 losses - 42

AAC
Quad 1 wins - 8
Quad 4 losses - 31

A-10
Quad 1 wins - 12
Quad 4 losses - 23

MAC
Quad 1 wins - 1
Quad 4 losses - 59

MWC
Quad 1 wins - 37
Quad 4 losses - 17

SBC
Quad 1 wins - 3
Quad 4 losses - 57

WAC
Quad 1 wins - 2
Quad 4 losses - 35

Rumored future CUSA members
Tarleton St 145
MoSt 146
EKU 219

2023-24 NET data as of 4.13.24. Last update of the season with final results.

CUSA
Louisiana Tech 101
Western Ky. 138
Liberty 140
Sam Houston 152
Delaware 165
UTEP 182
Jacksonville St. 216
Kennesaw St. 263
Middle Tenn. 290
New Mexico St. 291
FIU 295
Average 203

Average conference comps
2022-23 final average in ()
MWC (88) 106
A-10 (167) 122
MVC (189) 139
AAC (135) 144
WAC (153) 187
CUSA (150) 203
SBC (180) 210
MAC (212) 224

Below shows the number of Quad 1 wins and the number of Quad 4 losses (AKA good wins vs bad losses).

CUSA (the Quad 1 win came from future CUSA member Delaware)
Quad 1 wins - 1
Quad 4 losses - 42

AAC
Quad 1 wins - 10
Quad 4 losses - 31

A-10
Quad 1 wins - 15
Quad 4 losses - 23

MAC
Quad 1 wins - 0
Quad 4 losses - 59

MWC
Quad 1 wins - 41
Quad 4 losses - 17

SBC
Quad 1 wins - 4
Quad 4 losses - 57

WAC
Quad 1 wins - 3
Quad 4 losses - 34

Rumored future CUSA members
Tarleton St 135
MoSt 144
EKU 219

Thanks for doing this topper1296. Two things jumped out at me. First, every conference, except for the A10, was lower this year. Secondly the separation between CUSA, SB, and MAC has decreased.

The AAC lost a step at least partially because of realignment, losing exceptionally strong teams and replacing them with (for the most part) weaker teams. They're still clearly the best of the southern/eastern G5s.

I was surprised by CUSA's drop, but the only consolation here is that for MOST of us, we had uncharacteristically bad years. Looking at the bottom tier: Jax State was rebuilding after graduating a very experienced roster. Kennesaw, which had been gaining strength every year, was regrouping after a coaching change. The wheels came off for MTSU, which had been projected as a Top 2 team. NMSU was expected to be down this year, but historically has a strong team. They should be back. FIU is never a strong team, but has been at least mediocre in recent years. If each of these teams improves just a little, then we pull back ahead of the WAC and close the gap somewhat with the AAC. (Still need to improve a LOT at the top to catch the AAC, though.)

It's good to see improvement with the MAC and (especially) the Belt. I don't want to see either of them catch up to CUSA, of course. I just want G5 conferences to be strong across the board. It's an anti-Power thing.

EDIT: Yes, I know G5 is a football designation, but I'm focused on peer-to-peer designations, and "G5" automatically cuts out Power Greed conferences, FCS conferences, and non-football conferences.

Not shocked with CUSA’s “drop”, lost a Final Four team and two NIT finalists from the prior year. The league lost strength. Combine that with many of the traditionally stronger programs being predictably down this season and a poor OOC showing, and you’ve got a recipe for the worst-case scenario.

I’m also completely unconcerned about the health of CUSA in the long run. How often are NMSU and MTSU really going to be sub-200 teams, let alone near 300? Think it’s reasonable to expect leaps from Liberty and/or UTEP in the near-future as well. Delaware (and likely Missouri State) bring basketball pedigree. We should expect to be respectable nationally on the hardwood.

There have to be “bottom-feeder” programs of course, competition produces winners and losers. But top to bottom I like our collection of schools better than many of our peers in other mid-majors.

(04-15-2024 11:51 AM)EatEmUp11 Wrote:  Not shocked with CUSA’s “drop”, lost a Final Four team and two NIT finalists from the prior year. The league lost strength. Combine that with many of the traditionally stronger programs being predictably down this season and a poor OOC showing, and you’ve got a recipe for the worst-case scenario.

I’m also completely unconcerned about the health of CUSA in the long run. How often are NMSU and MTSU really going to be sub-200 teams, let alone near 300? Think it’s reasonable to expect leaps from Liberty and/or UTEP in the near-future as well. Delaware (and likely Missouri State) bring basketball pedigree. We should expect to be respectable nationally on the hardwood.

There have to be “bottom-feeder” programs of course, competition produces winners and losers. But top to bottom I like our collection of schools better than many of our peers in other mid-majors.

MT will be as long as our president is Sidney McPhee, until December 2026.

(04-15-2024 11:51 AM)EatEmUp11 Wrote:  Not shocked with CUSA’s “drop”, lost a Final Four team and two NIT finalists from the prior year. The league lost strength. Combine that with many of the traditionally stronger programs being predictably down this season and a poor OOC showing, and you’ve got a recipe for the worst-case scenario.

I’m also completely unconcerned about the health of CUSA in the long run. How often are NMSU and MTSU really going to be sub-200 teams, let alone near 300? Think it’s reasonable to expect leaps from Liberty and/or UTEP in the near-future as well. Delaware (and likely Missouri State) bring basketball pedigree. We should expect to be respectable nationally on the hardwood.

There have to be “bottom-feeder” programs of course, competition produces winners and losers. But top to bottom I like our collection of schools better than many of our peers in other mid-majors.

Hopefully not for very much longer but we will see. We will see how recruiting goes this year with Coach Hooten. We have heard very little on this front so far. NMSU has history of regularly being 100-150 NET with excursions into the top 100. I think we will get back there, just a matter of when.

GO AGGIES!!!!

Everything is SO unpredictable (vs the past) because of the "no rules" transfer portal.

It is going to be difficult to build consistency.

(04-15-2024 12:49 PM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 11:51 AM)EatEmUp11 Wrote:  Not shocked with CUSA’s “drop”, lost a Final Four team and two NIT finalists from the prior year. The league lost strength. Combine that with many of the traditionally stronger programs being predictably down this season and a poor OOC showing, and you’ve got a recipe for the worst-case scenario.

I’m also completely unconcerned about the health of CUSA in the long run. How often are NMSU and MTSU really going to be sub-200 teams, let alone near 300? Think it’s reasonable to expect leaps from Liberty and/or UTEP in the near-future as well. Delaware (and likely Missouri State) bring basketball pedigree. We should expect to be respectable nationally on the hardwood.

There have to be “bottom-feeder” programs of course, competition produces winners and losers. But top to bottom I like our collection of schools better than many of our peers in other mid-majors.

MT will be as long as our president is Sidney McPhee, until December 2026.

Point is, I highly doubt MTSU’s ten year avg is anywhere near 290.

(04-16-2024 12:19 PM)EatEmUp11 Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 12:49 PM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 11:51 AM)EatEmUp11 Wrote:  Not shocked with CUSA’s “drop”, lost a Final Four team and two NIT finalists from the prior year. The league lost strength. Combine that with many of the traditionally stronger programs being predictably down this season and a poor OOC showing, and you’ve got a recipe for the worst-case scenario.

I’m also completely unconcerned about the health of CUSA in the long run. How often are NMSU and MTSU really going to be sub-200 teams, let alone near 300? Think it’s reasonable to expect leaps from Liberty and/or UTEP in the near-future as well. Delaware (and likely Missouri State) bring basketball pedigree. We should expect to be respectable nationally on the hardwood.

There have to be “bottom-feeder” programs of course, competition produces winners and losers. But top to bottom I like our collection of schools better than many of our peers in other mid-majors.

MT will be as long as our president is Sidney McPhee, until December 2026.

Point is, I highly doubt MTSU’s ten year avg is anywhere near 290.

Using the NET rankings from the 20-21 season through this past season:

Liberty 96.75
Louisiana Tech 110.75
Western Kentucky 129.75
Sam Houston 134.75
UTEP 169.5
NMSU 180.5
Delaware 186
Jacksonville St 190.25
Middle Tennessee 200.5
Kennesaw St 234
FIU 269.25

CUSA 172.91


Based off those numbers only Louisiana Tech and Delaware were able to outperform their 4 year average this past season. NMSU is the only huge outlier as it is their only season outside the top 190 in NET over that span. Only Liberty has been in the top 150 NET ever year. In addition to Liberty; Tech, WKU, SHSU, and UTEP are the only schools to be in the top 200 NET every season.