I have updated the data in my program and have my updated numbers below for anyone that was interested. The number in parenthesis is how much the team improved or declined in the ratings from last week. We can add the Massey numbers when more ratings are added to the composite, but right now it seems about half loaded.

Sun Belt Ratings:
32 - James Madison (+6)
48 - Troy (+7)
51 - Georgia Southern (-1)
58 - Marshall (-19)
62 - Georgia State (-7)
64 - South Alabama (+18)
69 - App State (-4)
71 - Texas State (-20)
73 - Louisiana (+3)
91 - Coastal Carolina (no change)
95 - Old Dominion (+8)
115 - ULM (-18)
120 - Arkansas State (-9)
131 - Southern Miss (-2)

Average Conference Team Rating:
43.07 - SEC
43.75 - Pac-12
47.00 - Big 12
50.14 - Big Ten
52.14 - ACC
77.21 - Sun Belt
81.92 - Mountain West
89.00 - FBS Independents
90.71 - AAC
92.33 - CUSA
97.75 - MAC

Wow. We dropped 19 points losing by a TD to one of the better teams the conference has played this year, at their house. Played 2 P5s and went 1-1. I mean granted we didn't play UMASS, UConn, or Charlotte, but we can only schedule so tough.

(10-09-2023 05:48 AM)MUther Wrote:  Wow. We dropped 19 points losing by a TD to one of the better teams the conference has played this year, at their house. Played 2 P5s and went 1-1. I mean granted we didn't play UMASS, UConn, or Charlotte, but we can only schedule so tough.

Seriously... I guess we are chopped liver.

Last week Marshall was #55 in the Massey Composite but was #39 in my ranking. So far Marshall is #52 in the composite this week so my ranking isn’t out of line. If anything it sounds like last week’s ranking was a little high.

Massey Conference Rank:

1. SEC - 8.14
2. Pac-12 - 8.08
3. Big 12 - 7.96
4. Big Ten - 7.95
5. ACC - 7.78
--------------------------------
6. Sun Belt - 7.17
7. Mountain West - 7.10
8. American - 7.00
9 (tie). MAC - 6.73
9 (tie). CUSA - 6.73

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings?c=1

(10-09-2023 05:48 AM)MUther Wrote:  Wow. We dropped 19 points losing by a TD to one of the better teams the conference has played this year, at their house. Played 2 P5s and went 1-1. I mean granted we didn't play UMASS, UConn, or Charlotte, but we can only schedule so tough.

You're the best win on NC State's schedule so far haha. Unfortunately NC State is closer to UVA than FSU this year.

(10-09-2023 07:29 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Last week Marshall was #55 in the Massey Composite but was #39 in my ranking. So far Marshall is #52 in the composite this week so my ranking isn’t out of line. If anything it sounds like last week’s ranking was a little high.

I guess we should have played Utah St so we could be #32.

(10-09-2023 09:28 AM)MUther Wrote:  I guess we should have played Utah St so we could be #32.

+1

NCSU lost to L'ville by only 3 (I guess its better than losing to them by 24 uh?), who just beat ND.

I believe NCSU is a lot better than some are giving credit for. Take care of Business and the rest will sort itself out.
More disturbing is MU is only a PK or 1 point to Ga. State. I would have figured we should have been more of a favorite than that.

Reading some of the this weeks power index is comical. Reaks in a conference that is not used to having teams in the upper 50's +.

Cajuns are getting shortchanged in the models. They will be a tough out for anyone left on their schedule.

(10-09-2023 10:02 AM)Johns1124 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 09:28 AM)MUther Wrote:  I guess we should have played Utah St so we could be #32.

+1

NCSU lost to L'ville by only 3 (I guess its better than losing to them by 24 uh?), who just beat ND.

I believe NCSU is a lot better than some are giving credit for. Take care of Business and the rest will sort itself out.
More disturbing is MU is only a PK or 1 point to Ga. State. I would have figured we should have been more of a favorite than that.

Reading some of the this weeks power index is comical. Reaks in a conference that is not used to having teams in the upper 50's +.

Yeah I'm really surprised you guys aren't favored by more than that. I do think #32 is probably a little high for us at this point. If we go beat GS and Marshall then it'll be more deserved, but at this point I'd expect a bit lower due to margin of victory in some of our games.

(10-09-2023 10:11 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Cajuns are getting shortchanged in the models. They will be a tough out for anyone left on their schedule.

We play ugly

Hey, we still stink. Awesome.

I did something a little different.

This model uses zero information about final scores or who wins games but only uses differentials in offensive success rates and yards per play on offense (metrics that SP+ uses) and finds ratings for each team that best explains the differentials for these two stats in each game. It uses zero information from previous seasons or win-loss record and doesn't count FCS games.

It leads to some anomalies you won't see in other rankings (Miami #3 and ODU a lot higher than most other models).


1. Washington
2. Oregon
3. Miami
4. Georgia
5. Texas
.
.
.
38. James Madison
48. South Alabama
58. Texas State
59. Troy
65. Louisiana
74. Marshall
77. Georgia Southern
81. Appalachian State
82. Old Dominion
85. Coastal Carolina
104. Georgia State
114. ULM
118. Southern Miss
123. Arkansas State

(10-09-2023 05:15 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I did something a little different.

This model uses zero information about final scores or who wins games but only uses differentials in offensive success rates and yards per play on offense (metrics that SP+ uses) and finds ratings for each team that best explains the differentials for these two stats in each game. It uses zero information from previous seasons or win-loss record and doesn't count FCS games.

It leads to some anomalies you won't see in other rankings (Miami #3 and ODU a lot higher than most other models).


1. Washington
2. Oregon
3. Miami
4. Georgia
5. Texas
.
.
.
38. James Madison
48. South Alabama
58. Texas State
59. Troy
65. Louisiana
74. Marshall
77. Georgia Southern
81. Appalachian State
82. Old Dominion
85. Coastal Carolina
104. Georgia State
114. ULM
118. Southern Miss
123. Arkansas State

Not accounting for strength of opponents will create some anomalies, I would think. Unless its taking data directly from SP+.

(10-09-2023 05:48 AM)MUther Wrote:  Wow. We dropped 19 points losing by a TD to one of the better teams the conference has played this year, at their house. Played 2 P5s and went 1-1. I mean granted we didn't play UMASS, UConn, or Charlotte, but we can only schedule so tough.

The way you all played against VT and NC State is why I’m not looking forward to playing you all in Huntington. There are computer rankings and there’s the eye test.

(10-09-2023 03:35 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Hey, we still stink. Awesome.

You gotta look on the bright side. We’re in a place where math limits how far we can drop from week to week.

(10-09-2023 05:15 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I did something a little different.

This model uses zero information about final scores or who wins games but only uses differentials in offensive success rates and yards per play on offense (metrics that SP+ uses) and finds ratings for each team that best explains the differentials for these two stats in each game. It uses zero information from previous seasons or win-loss record and doesn't count FCS games.

It leads to some anomalies you won't see in other rankings (Miami #3 and ODU a lot higher than most other models).


1. Washington
2. Oregon
3. Miami
4. Georgia
5. Texas
.
.
.
38. James Madison
48. South Alabama
58. Texas State
59. Troy
65. Louisiana
74. Marshall
77. Georgia Southern
81. Appalachian State
82. Old Dominion
85. Coastal Carolina
104. Georgia State
114. ULM
118. Southern Miss
123. Arkansas State

Yeah, whatever you did this ain't it. No way four west division teams should be ahead of any #2 east right now.

(10-09-2023 10:02 AM)Johns1124 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 09:28 AM)MUther Wrote:  I guess we should have played Utah St so we could be #32.

+1

NCSU lost to L'ville by only 3 (I guess its better than losing to them by 24 uh?), who just beat ND.

I believe NCSU is a lot better than some are giving credit for. Take care of Business and the rest will sort itself out.
More disturbing is MU is only a PK or 1 point to Ga. State. I would have figured we should have been more of a favorite than that.

Reading some of the this weeks power index is comical. Reaks in a conference that is not used to having teams in the upper 50's +.

Who lost to Louisville by 24 this year? You're transitive inference from last year to take a swipe at JMU?