(09-30-2023 07:26 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: I would hardly categorize the 'let Ukraine fend for itself' asa tenet of strong foreign policy.
Couple of points.
One, JFK was clearly a tax-cutting Cold Warrior which, as George said, would make him anathema to modern progressives/leftists. JFK actually ran on a platform that criticized republicans for having too weak armed forces. JFK's objective was a "2-1/2 war" military, that could simulataneusly engage Russia, China, and a rogue nation/terror threat. The Cuban missile crisis was clearly an example of extremely aggressive foreign policy.
Two, I think strong foreign policy needs to be determined in accordance with what your objectives are. We are in Cold War II, like it or not. The #1 enemy is China and Russia is #2. Unfortunately, a lot of the senior career bureaucrats at State and Defense and CIA sill think in terms of Russia as enemy #1, and we are in serious danger of losing if we don't refocus. Our biggest problem is not Russia and Ukraine, it's China through its Belt and Road and String of Pearls initiatives gaining influence in the developing world, now extending to Europe and South America. We have spent the last 20 years fighting wars that we did not intend to win--and probably could not win--in the MidEast, while China has been outflanking us economically.
We won Cold War I in two steps--Truman bribed up an alliance to stop Siviet aggression, and 40 years later Reagan put sufficient pressure on the Russian economy to bring down the Evil Empire. I think we can win Cold War II with a similar strategy. China has done some very impressive things economically, but the Chinese economy has very much feet of clay. They export cheap consumer goods and use the resulting cash flow to fund make-work projects with no chance of economic success (the empty cities) and to buy foreign influence. Bribe up that alliance among the British Commonwealth (UK, Canada, Australia, India, Malaysia, Singapore), the Quad (Australia again, India again, Japan), and other countries threatened by China (Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines), and we have leverage to shut off China's exports to the west and its imports of oil. Without those things the Chinese economy craters. The objective of Belt and Road is to provide additional land-based lines of transportation, to avoid the sea threats, but you can't truck enough oil over the Himalayas to keep China's economy going.
So, to my mind, a strong policy is one that addresses today's number one enemy instead of yesterdays, and I think the preoccupation with Ukraine indicates that our "best minds" at State/Defense/CIA are not capable of making that transition. A basic problem is that those views caused us to engage in a strong anti-Russian foreign policy after the fall of the Iron Curtain, driving Russia ever closer to China, when a less hostile policy might have allowed us to triangulate Russia v China in very useful ways. One of my basic tenets for defense/foreign policy, learned in Vietnam a half century ago, is never fight a war that you don't intend to win. What does a win look like in Ukraine? I think that a negotiated peace with Ukraine remaining militarily neutral but with strong economic ties to Europe (perhaps EU membership but not NATO) is the best outcome--for Ukraine, for Russia, for Europe, and for the USA. Then focus on stopping China. How do we get there?
I don't think that ignoring China to focus on Iraq and Afghanistan as been a useful foreign policy for the last 20 years, and I don't think focusing on Ukraine to ignore China is useful now.
Tanq, this may be another iteration of our differences. You seem to have far more respect for, and trust in, the senior career bureaucrats running our security and defense and foreign policy establisments than I do.