The Big 10 didn't expand to 18 for no reason. The current ACC kerfuffle is not over, only delayed in the public's eyes while things will continue to churn below the surface appearances, and all because the Networks don't want any negativity for the upcoming football season which is two weeks away.

The direction has gone out that the public hue and cry for the demise of the PAC 12 needs to be saved for the sportscasters of those late-night games in the last time slot of the day to mention. Meanwhile, it will be Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and SEC to sell the facade of normalcy in a rapidly changing landscape of College Football.

The networks have not abandoned their hopes for profits from an expanded playoff and only continue behind the scenes to find the best possible way to design it so that it reaches all of the major market areas when it debuts.

It for the reason stated above that fully expect a breakaway of the upper tier once the realignment issue is settled, an issue sure to resurface in the days following the CFP championship game. The passing of the deadline for the ACC was hyped I think as a stopping point for realignment discussions during the season and like a master magician we are now required to divert our eyes to the action at hand while the slight of it goes unobserved. We will now take about a 4 and half month break from the topic providing ample time behind the scenes for ESPN, the ACC and those hopeful for an exit to work out what comes next. But there is a shelf life. The new CFP contract begins in 2026 when the 2 year contract for the expansion expires. Changes will likely be in place for the start of that season, meaning I expect to see consolidation wrapped up, and a breakaway likely to happen before 2026.

That set of moves would showcase an upper tier, utilize 3 conferences, and guarantee the penetration of the markets with the best possible branding to generate the size of the audience that FOX and ESPN will want. Having consolidation wrapped up in 2025 will be key to such an endeavor.

That is why for now, the focus shifts to the actual season and the making of money from it. When the season is over you will hear more about realignment during basketball and that too will die when the tournaments start and ramp up again when they have concluded. This has been the predictable pattern to drive viewership in the slow months with realignment news. Realignment in and of itself has become a 4th season for the networks, sports writers, and bloggers/podcasters.

Now the ACC goes underground, it's not over, it's just getting started. They'll be the news all next Summer. And that you can bet on!

Hopefully by next summer Florida State can get all of their financing arranged and will be able to make a payment an move into the SEC with Kansas to get the SEC to 18 teams.
The ACC will find three teams to move to 16 teams to match the Big 12.
The PAC 4 will find enough teams to get them to full conference status.

We'll rock along like that for a couple of years until things change again and the true P2 conferences emerge.
The SEC will take the best of the ACC and the B1G will take the best of the Big 12. At that point I predict some relegation as the make up of all four leagues will change.

(08-17-2023 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  Hopefully by next summer Florida State can get all of their financing arranged and will be able to make a payment an move into the SEC with Kansas to get the SEC to 18 teams.
The ACC will find three teams to move to 16 teams to match the Big 12.
The PAC 4 will find enough teams to get them to full conference status.

We'll rock along like that for a couple of years until things change again and the true P2 conferences emerge.
The SEC will take the best of the ACC and the B1G will take the best of the Big 12. At that point I predict some relegation as the make up of all four leagues will change.

That's quite likely X. Although I think the ACC could be morphed into a conference for privates, spearheaded by Notre Dame. Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Boston College, possibly Pitt as a hybrid, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and by 2030, USC and Stanford and Cal could stick even though Cal is public. Pick up T.C.U. and Baylor, Brigham Young, and the 3 service academies and you have an 18 school conference.

That would shake up a few things.

(08-17-2023 02:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  Hopefully by next summer Florida State can get all of their financing arranged and will be able to make a payment an move into the SEC with Kansas to get the SEC to 18 teams.
The ACC will find three teams to move to 16 teams to match the Big 12.
The PAC 4 will find enough teams to get them to full conference status.

We'll rock along like that for a couple of years until things change again and the true P2 conferences emerge.
The SEC will take the best of the ACC and the B1G will take the best of the Big 12. At that point I predict some relegation as the make up of all four leagues will change.

That's quite likely X. Although I think the ACC could be morphed into a conference for privates, spearheaded by Notre Dame. Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Boston College, possibly Pitt as a hybrid, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and by 2030, USC and Stanford and Cal could stick even though Cal is public. Pick up T.C.U. and Baylor, Brigham Young, and the 3 service academies and you have an 18 school conference.

That would shake up a few things.

After all of this time, JR, nobody ever figured out how to untie the knot.
There were just too many schools in the wrong places and the valuations were not right to ever get to a 4 X 16.
When the SEC went to 16 every thing got lopsided and the B1G began to panic. They were blocked from coming down the east coast and they had to make the move "west". That even threw the balance more out of whack. The ACC tried to cut the B1G off in the west, but the move failed. Now we have 18 x 18 x 16 x 14+1. The ACC will add two schools soon for balance.

Funny isn't it. After all of those scenarios, nothing worked. What we needed was Alexander's sword, but I guess in the end the market will sort things out, which actually means that the networks will arrange things to suit themselves so that they can make money even if they eventually ruin the sport. They will continuously tell us that this is what we wanted all along, and nobody will believe them, but there won't be a good alternative except for those with deep pockets.

(08-17-2023 03:46 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 02:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  Hopefully by next summer Florida State can get all of their financing arranged and will be able to make a payment an move into the SEC with Kansas to get the SEC to 18 teams.
The ACC will find three teams to move to 16 teams to match the Big 12.
The PAC 4 will find enough teams to get them to full conference status.

We'll rock along like that for a couple of years until things change again and the true P2 conferences emerge.
The SEC will take the best of the ACC and the B1G will take the best of the Big 12. At that point I predict some relegation as the make up of all four leagues will change.

That's quite likely X. Although I think the ACC could be morphed into a conference for privates, spearheaded by Notre Dame. Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Boston College, possibly Pitt as a hybrid, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and by 2030, USC and Stanford and Cal could stick even though Cal is public. Pick up T.C.U. and Baylor, Brigham Young, and the 3 service academies and you have an 18 school conference.

That would shake up a few things.

After all of this time, JR, nobody ever figured out how to untie the knot.
There were just too many schools in the wrong places and the valuations were not right to ever get to a 4 X 16.
When the SEC went to 16 every thing got lopsided and the B1G began to panic. They were blocked from coming down the east coast and they had to make the move "west". That even threw the balance more out of whack. The ACC tried to cut the B1G off in the west, but the move failed. Now we have 18 x 18 x 16 x 14+1. The ACC will add two schools soon for balance.

Funny isn't it. After all of those scenarios, nothing worked. What we needed was Alexander's sword, but I guess in the end the market will sort things out, which actually means that the networks will arrange things to suit themselves so that they can make money even if they eventually ruin the sport. They will continuously tell us that this is what we wanted all along, and nobody will believe them, but there won't be a good alternative except for those with deep pockets.

The sword X has been the SCOTUS rulings. The networks won't be opposed because where do the people raise a voice which will be aired on television? That is why they get to dictate policy and tell us we will like it. The only vote that the people have is to tune out and turn off. That hits the wallet and gets response. But, we are reticent to do that to our own institutions and there is the rub.

The models didn't work, because outside of the 2 x 32 there isn't one which has a chance of lasting now. And that model could just as easily be a 2 x 28 or a 2 x 24.

"Meanwhile, it will be Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and SEC to sell the facade of normalcy in a rapidly changing landscape of College Football."

I wouldn't want to be the sales guy trying to sell "all is well" for one of those conferences!

(08-18-2023 09:45 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  "Meanwhile, it will be Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and SEC to sell the facade of normalcy in a rapidly changing landscape of College Football."

I wouldn't want to be the sales guy trying tell sell "all is well" for one of those conferences!

My premise 11 years ago with my first post was that if this intrusion of corporate America into our life and our loves didn't engender a major whiplash we were done as a free society. We are there. It is why I have closely followed realignment as a sociology experiment on how docile the public has become to outside intrusion into their lives. I've been sorely disappointed by the result.

When Texas and Oklahoma jumped everyone should have taken notice that this didn't happen because of sports media money. Something much bigger and uglier scared those two into the move and demographic changes are a part of it, but so too are financial shifts. This is a survival move and they saw it coming. Everyone else was oblivious until that point and now you have schools willing to leave for no money. Why? It's not about sports, it's about survival in a world which will see massive downsizing in higher education and each state will organize the downsizing by keeping the tentpole schools afloat. I say tentpole because they aren't the flagship of a state educational systems armada, they will be the only shelter to those that survive.

(08-18-2023 10:07 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-18-2023 09:45 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  "Meanwhile, it will be Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and SEC to sell the facade of normalcy in a rapidly changing landscape of College Football."

I wouldn't want to be the sales guy trying to sell "all is well" for one of those conferences!

My premise 11 years ago with my first post was that if this intrusion of corporate America into our life and our loves didn't engender a major whiplash we were done as a free society. We are there. It is why I have closely followed realignment as a sociology experiment on how docile the public has become to outside intrusion into their lives. I've been sorely disappointed by the result.

When Texas and Oklahoma jumped everyone should have taken notice that this didn't happen because of sports media money. Something much bigger and uglier scared those two into the move and demographic changes are a part of it, but so too are financial shifts. This is a survival move and they saw it coming. Everyone else was oblivious until that point and now you have schools willing to leave for no money. Why? It's not about sports, it's about survival in a world which will see massive downsizing in higher education and each state will organize the downsizing by keeping the tentpole schools afloat. I say tentpole because they aren't the flagship of a state educational systems armada, they will be the only shelter to those that survive.

I always enjoy your takes JR. I find realignment truly fascinating well beyond its impact on college sports.

(08-17-2023 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  Hopefully by next summer Florida State can get all of their financing arranged and will be able to make a payment an move into the SEC with Kansas to get the SEC to 18 teams.
The ACC will find three teams to move to 16 teams to match the Big 12.
The PAC 4 will find enough teams to get them to full conference status.

We'll rock along like that for a couple of years until things change again and the true P2 conferences emerge.
The SEC will take the best of the ACC and the B1G will take the best of the Big 12. At that point I predict some relegation as the make up of all four leagues will change.

Your first paragraph is the starting point for my vision of what I would like to see emerge within the FBS.

The three teams I would then like to see the ACC add are West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCF.

And finally, the PAC 4 join their 4C brethren in the Big 12.

When this is done, we are left with a P4, with the B1G and SEC at 18 each, and the ACC and Big 12 at 16, plus independent Notre Dame. This I would see as an autonomous subdivision of the FBS, in which none of these 69 teams can count any win against an FCS team toward bowl eligibility. The remaining FBS schools may continue to count one FCS win.

I would organize the ACC and Big 12 into two 8 team divisions, and give these four division champions an AQ into a 16 team CFP. The B1G and SEC would remain divisionless, and the top three finishers within their conference standings would also get an autobid to the CFP. This results in 10 autobids, and the final six berths go to the highest ranked FBS teams not already in the field, using some standard metric like the Massey Composite, the Sagarin rankings, or some combination of metrics. Whatever metric is used, it would also be used to seed the 16 teams for the CFP.

My ACC divisions:
ACC division: Clemson, Va Tech, NCSU, UNC, Georgia Tech, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia
Big East division: Louisville, Miami, WVU, Pitt, UCF, Cincinnati, Syracuse, BC

My Big 12 divisions:
Southwest: OK State, TCU, Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa St, BYU, Houston
Pacific: Utah, Stanford, Arizona St, Washington St, Arizona, Cal, Oregon St, Colorado

(08-19-2023 08:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  Hopefully by next summer Florida State can get all of their financing arranged and will be able to make a payment an move into the SEC with Kansas to get the SEC to 18 teams.
The ACC will find three teams to move to 16 teams to match the Big 12.
The PAC 4 will find enough teams to get them to full conference status.

We'll rock along like that for a couple of years until things change again and the true P2 conferences emerge.
The SEC will take the best of the ACC and the B1G will take the best of the Big 12. At that point I predict some relegation as the make up of all four leagues will change.

Your first paragraph is the starting point for my vision of what I would like to see emerge within the FBS.

The three teams I would then like to see the ACC add are West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCF.

And finally, the PAC 4 join their 4C brethren in the Big 12.

When this is done, we are left with a P4, with the B1G and SEC at 18 each, and the ACC and Big 12 at 16, plus independent Notre Dame. This I would see as an autonomous subdivision of the FBS, in which none of these 69 teams can count any win against an FCS team toward bowl eligibility. The remaining FBS schools may continue to count one FCS win.

I would organize the ACC and Big 12 into two 8 team divisions, and give these four division champions an AQ into a 16 team CFP. The B1G and SEC would remain divisionless, and the top three finishers within their conference standings would also get an autobid to the CFP. This results in 10 autobids, and the final six berths go to the highest ranked FBS teams not already in the field, using some standard metric like the Massey Composite, the Sagarin rankings, or some combination of metrics. Whatever metric is used, it would also be used to seed the 16 teams for the CFP.
My ACC divisions:
ACC division: Clemson, Va Tech, NCSU, UNC, Georgia Tech, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia
Big East division: Louisville, Miami, WVU, Pitt, UCF, Cincinnati, Syracuse, BC

My Big 12 divisions:
Southwest: OK State, TCU, Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa St, BYU, Houston
Pacific: Utah, Stanford, Arizona St, Washington St, Arizona, Cal, Oregon St, Colorado

Your vision is a good one, but I will offer one little tweak.
With the circumstances that have come out of Morgantown in the last few weeks, there is a possibility that West Virginia as a University is in true danger of not being a viable educational institution in the future.
This is not a slight of WVU, but evidently there are some real management problems that have existed and allowed the University to make it necessary to have to downgrade their educational offerings.

It may be necessary to modify the scenario to include Cincinnati, UCF and USF (as a substitute for West Virginia).

The Bulls could be reunited with some of their old Big East brethren in your Big East division.

If conference realignment followed logic:

WVU, Cincy, and UCF to the ACC (17+1)

Stanford, Cal, Wash St, Ore St, and SMU to the Big 12 (18)

You could functionally split the Big 12 into divisions:
East: Iowa St, Kansas, K St, Okla St, TCU, SMU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston
West: Wash St, Ore St, Cal, Stanford, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Arizona, Ariz St

(08-19-2023 03:32 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If conference realignment followed logic:

WVU, Cincy, and UCF to the ACC (17+1)

Stanford, Cal, Wash St, Ore St, and SMU to the Big 12 (18)

You could functionally split the Big 12 into divisions:
East: Iowa St, Kansas, K St, Okla St, TCU, SMU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston
West: Wash St, Ore St, Cal, Stanford, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Arizona, Ariz St

If this is the discussion, I think it's probably more like:

Cal - indy in football, the rest to the Big West.

Big10 (18)

FSU and Clemson to the SEC (18)

WVU, Cincy, UCF, USF, and UConn, to the ACC (17+1)

SDSU, Stanford, Wash St, Ore St, SMU, to the Big 12 (18)

East: Iowa St, Kansas, K St, Okla St, TCU, SMU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston
West: Wash St, Ore St, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Arizona, Ariz St, SDSU, Stanford

Stanford waits (with the rest of the AAU schools in the Big12) for the ACC situation to resolve one way or other - right along with the Big10...

If the BIG and SEC are at 20, a third conference at 24 makes more sense than two conferences of 16. Two M2s at 16 with even more backfill further widens the gap.

For P5 schools outside of the BIG and SEC, making this essentially a P5 reorganization down to 3 conferences is the most tenable path

(08-19-2023 06:15 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  If the BIG and SEC are at 20, a third conference at 24 makes more sense than two conferences of 16. Two M2s at 16 with even more backfill further widens the gap.

For P5 schools outside of the BIG and SEC, making this essentially a P5 reorganization down to 3 conferences is the most tenable path

If the Big 10 and SEC are at 20 apiece, that puts the ACC at 9 or 10. They need not go to 16 like the Big 12 did. USF, UConn, Memphis, and even Temple are there to help them rebuild. They could even try to flip WVU, Cincinnati, and UCF.

Merging with the Big 12 would mean leaving 1-2 schools out. The ACC won’t do that if they don’t have to.

(08-19-2023 06:15 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  If the BIG and SEC are at 20, a third conference at 24 makes more sense than two conferences of 16. Two M2s at 16 with even more backfill further widens the gap.

For P5 schools outside of the BIG and SEC, making this essentially a P5 reorganization down to 3 conferences is the most tenable path

Yes. We would see Notre Dame remain independent. Boston College, Oregon St, Wake Forest, and Washington St fade into non-power status.

B1G (18) + California, Stanford
SEC (16) + Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, Virginia
XII (16) + Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

(08-19-2023 09:45 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 06:15 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  If the BIG and SEC are at 20, a third conference at 24 makes more sense than two conferences of 16. Two M2s at 16 with even more backfill further widens the gap.

For P5 schools outside of the BIG and SEC, making this essentially a P5 reorganization down to 3 conferences is the most tenable path

Yes. We would see Notre Dame remain independent. Boston College, Oregon St, Wake Forest, and Washington St fade into non-power status.

B1G (18) + California, Stanford
SEC (16) + Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, Virginia
XII (16) + Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

If the ACC opens like that, even if the SEC added Virginia (instead of what we seem to be seeing with North Carolina State), I would be very surprised if the Big10 did not add Miami, at the very minimum.

Cal is prestigious academically, but so are Duke and GT. And - if the ACC were open right now - I think they are in line ahead of Cal. Not because of academics, but all the other reasons. The Big10 wants academic schools, so question, but once you check that box, then it's on to the other boxes. And Cal not only being in the same state as other Big10 schools, but also being in the SF media market with Stanford, pretty much isn't a great place to be in from a realignment perspective. Add in the drama of the board of regents, and...

While: Duke bringing North Carolina, and being a basketball power, or GT bringing Georgia/Atlanta? Or even USF with Florida/ Tampa...

Plus, I really get the impression that if football wasn't such big money, and thus required by the P5/4 conferences, I really wonder if Cal would even sponsor football.

I think if someone found a way for them to get money to make their stadium payments, and they had some OOC scheduling agreements with some old rivals for certain sports, they would probably be happier in the BigWest.

So with apologies to Cal-Berkeley and their fans, I just don't see the Big10 adding them. Yes, it still could happen - the Big10 does favor academic schools. But if other options are there, I don't think Cal is top of the list for realignment.

In my P4 proposal above, I would further break the SEC and B1G into 3 divisions each, with the winner of the division round robin getting an AQ into the CFP. Non-division winners are of course eligible to fill one of the six at-large CFP berths, as are G5 conference champs and independents (including Notre Dame).

My SEC divisions would be (with annual OOD and OOC games for each school):

East:
Georgia.............Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech
Florida St..........Mississippi St, Alabama, Miami
Auburn.............Alabama, Mississippi St
Florida.............Tennessee, Texas
South Carolina...Missouri
Kentucky..........Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Louisville

Central:
Alabama...........Auburn, Florida State, Notre Dame/2
LSU..................Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Notre Dame/2
Mississippi St.....Florida St, Auburn
Ole Miss............Arkansas
Tennessee.........Kentucky, Florida
Vanderbilt.........Kentucky, Kansas

West:
Oklahoma.........LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma St
Texas A&M........LSU, Notre Dame/2
Texas...............Georgia, Florida, Notre Dame/2
Missouri...........South Carolina, Illinois
Arkansas..........Ole Miss
Kansas.............Vanderbilt, Kansas St

My main objective in indulging in this exercise was to come up with a structure for college football that preserves as much of its heritage and traditions as possible to stave off what appears to be an inexorable march toward a small (32-40ish teams) NFL-lite model that relegates much of the FBS to second class status.

In doing this, I tried to maintain as much of a regional flavor to schedules as possible, while optimizing the number of marquee games throughout the regular season. I hoped to create divisions that produced CFP worthy champions every year, while preserving the path to a championship for schools that didn't win their division round robin, or who aren't likely to earn a bid in the current format.

And I tried to envision non-conference and out of division (OOD) games that gave as many schools as possible a regular season schedule that looks a lot like what they would have created for themselves.

So, similar to the SEC, My Big Ten would look like this:

East:
Ohio State.......Michigan, Southern Cal
Penn State......Oregon, Michigan St, Pitt
Indiana
Maryland
Purdue
Rutgers..........Syracuse

Central:
Wisconsin........Northwestern, Southern Cal
Michigan.........Ohio State, Washington, Notre Dame/2
Michigan St.....Penn State, UCLA, Notre Dame/2
Iowa..............Nebraska, Iowa State
Minnesota.......Nebraska
Illinois............Northwestern, Missouri

West:
Oregon...........Penn State, Oregon State
Washington.....Michigan, Washington St
Southern Cal...Ohio State, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
UCLA..............Michigan St, California
Nebraska.........Iowa, Minnesota
Northwestern...Illinois, Wisconsin, Duke

These schedules would give independent Notre Dame both as difficult and as reasonable as any would-be CFP team every year. They would typically play each year:

Alabama or LSU
Texas or Texas A&M
Michigan or Michigan State
Southern Cal
Stanford
5 ACC opponents
Navy

I do think the networks and the Power conferences have heard the anger loud and clear. Not from the fans from the schools left behind in the PAC 12, Big 12, ACC and G5, but from the fans from schools leaving the conferences. Oklahoma fans wants the Okie State games. PAC 12 fans in the Big 12 and Big 10 wants to continue their rivalries in the PAC 12. You see where I am getting at? You are also getting a lot of negative from sports fans including writers and people in the media that there are more worthy G5 schools that deserved to be in a P5. This is not over because I don't think ESPN will want to break the ACC up. Selling the ACC Network and half the contract to Apple in part of a partnership or with Amazon may give the ACC more money to play with to help keep FSU and the greedy leadership happy.

(08-20-2023 03:28 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  I do think the networks and the Power conferences have heard the anger loud and clear. Not from the fans from the schools left behind in the PAC 12, Big 12, ACC and G5, but from the fans from schools leaving the conferences. Oklahoma fans wants the Okie State games. PAC 12 fans in the Big 12 and Big 10 wants to continue their rivalries in the PAC 12. You see where I am getting at? You are also getting a lot of negative from sports fans including writers and people in the media that there are more worthy G5 schools that deserved to be in a P5. This is not over because I don't think ESPN will want to break the ACC up. Selling the ACC Network and half the contract to Apple in part of a partnership or with Amazon may give the ACC more money to play with to help keep FSU and the greedy leadership happy.

David, they have heard it, and they just don't give a damn! The ACC is all they have left to reorganize, and they are finished. It will happen. What you suggest doesn't fit in with their plans and who has the power, the one who pays the money, has never been clearer!