Looks like old Joe has been told to run on his economic record.

So I thought I would throw in a few anecdotal happenings.

Bought gas yesterday at $3.469. See below.

Then went and got my Senior haircut. Ran $17. Two to three years back, $11. Went by the chicken place for lunch. $11. Used to run $8, before Biden. Chicken place advertising for help $16/hr.

I know the rate of inflation is dropping. Just the rate. But the last 2.5 years is now baked in. Anybody who thinks my haircut will revert to $11, raise your little blue hand.

Still down hundreds of thousands in my retirement account.

Electric bill about double two years ago.

I presume most nonSmurfs are having similar experiences.

Yay Biden.

That analysis ignores the global macroeconomic trends that no US President is responsible for. Inflation is an issue globally. Oil and gas prices are an issue globally.

If we want to evaluate Biden’s policy impacts on the US economy, it would be best to compare our economic performance to our peers. Are we outperforming or underperforming them?

If I were trying to prove something in a scholarly magazine, that would be good advice.

BUT, I am just reporting on how things have changed in my life since Biden and his policies have taken force. Prices are up, my cash reserves down.

Bottom line: not for the better.

I guess if you want to prove that it is a coincidence and Biden holds no responsibility, go ahead. Hardly a plus to say the guy is ineffectual.

(07-29-2023 07:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  If I were trying to prove something in a scholarly magazine, that would be good advice.

BUT, I am just reporting on how things have changed in my life since Biden and his policies have taken force. Prices are up, my cash reserves down.

Bottom line: not for the better.

I guess if you want to prove that it is a coincidence and Biden holds no responsibility, go ahead. Hardly a plus to say the guy is ineffectual.

It’s not asking if the guy is ineffectual, but rather, could the economy be worse?

Metrics I have seen show inflation in the US lower than peer countries and same for GDP growth.

So sure, we are dealing with inflation, but so is the entire world. And we are experience it to a lesser extent. Bottom line: compared to our peers, we are doing better.

(07-29-2023 09:08 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(07-29-2023 07:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  If I were trying to prove something in a scholarly magazine, that would be good advice.

BUT, I am just reporting on how things have changed in my life since Biden and his policies have taken force. Prices are up, my cash reserves down.

Bottom line: not for the better.

I guess if you want to prove that it is a coincidence and Biden holds no responsibility, go ahead. Hardly a plus to say the guy is ineffectual.

It’s not asking if the guy is ineffectual, but rather, could the economy be worse?

Metrics I have seen show inflation in the US lower than peer countries and same for GDP growth.

So sure, we are dealing with inflation, but so is the entire world. And we are experience it to a lesser extent. Bottom line: compared to our peers, we are doing better.

I guess you can view your metrics and draw your conclusions. What I saw was the wild spending sparked inflation here, and now that we have a Republican House that has put the brake’s on Biden’s spending, the rate is coming down.

To answer your question, yes the economy could be a lot worse - if the House was controlled still by the Dems, and passing spending bill after spending bill, with Biden signing every one and bragging about it.

The first two years was the wild inflation that is now baked in. The RATE is coming down, but prices are not returning to 2020 levels…ever.

Seems odd to have Biden crowing about Bidenomics while his faithful are working oh-so-hard to show that it is not his fault, he just happens to be the guy on the porch when the tsunami hit. They all agree that he is, in fact, the hero.

Not trying to be combative with you, Lad, but I would like to get a Blue Teamer’s take on what specifically Biden has done to bring down the inflation he caused.

I see two reasons the rate of inflation is abating:

A. Spending has slowed. This seems to be a function of the GOP taking control of the House, and blocking Biden/Dem spending.

B. Raising interest rates. Same ol’, same ol’. It has mixed results for the American people. Lenders, such as people who buy bank CDs, are better off. But borrowers, especially businesses, just have higher costs. But in any case, it is not not something special that Biden did. That would be like praising the mayor for sending the fire department to a fire. Yay, Mayor.

If I have missed anything that is fighting inflation, in particular anything Joe has done, please let me know.

(07-30-2023 09:30 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Not trying to be combative with you, Lad, but I would like to get a Blue Teamer’s take on what specifically Biden has done to bring down the inflation he caused.

I see two reasons the rate of inflation is abating:

A. Spending has slowed. This seems to be a function of the GOP taking control of the House, and blocking Biden/Dem spending.

B. Raising interest rates. Same ol’, same ol’. It has mixed results for the American people. Lenders, such as people who buy bank CDs, are better off. But borrowers, especially businesses, just have higher costs. But in any case, it is not not something special that Biden did. That would be like praising the mayor for sending the fire department to a fire. Yay, Mayor.

If I have missed anything that is fighting inflation, in particular anything Joe has done, please let me know.

My whole point is that inflation was not solely caused by Biden - the entire world is dealing with inflation, after all. Trump and Biden likely contributed to the inflation in the U.S. with some of the stimulus payments, but those were so long ago, and so minimal to individuals, that it’s hard to buy that they were the cause of long-term inflation. Kansas City Fed points to profiteering as the main cause of significant inflation in 2021: https://www.npr.org/2023/05/19/117718097...-inflation

The major economic policies of Biden, the IRA and CHIPS, are longer-term and aren’t just cash for nothing programs - they support new jobs and good wages, which are needed with unemployment so low. Not all spending is equal, after all. I imagine without these, functionally, government supported projects the chance that a recession actually had occurred would have been much higher. P

Interest rates are definitely one, if not the, primary reason for inflation reduction. But it’s not the only one as other country’s central banks have raised rates without similar success (although maybe they haven’t been as aggressive).

(07-30-2023 10:37 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(07-30-2023 09:30 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Not trying to be combative with you, Lad, but I would like to get a Blue Teamer’s take on what specifically Biden has done to bring down the inflation he caused.

I see two reasons the rate of inflation is abating:

A. Spending has slowed. This seems to be a function of the GOP taking control of the House, and blocking Biden/Dem spending.

B. Raising interest rates. Same ol’, same ol’. It has mixed results for the American people. Lenders, such as people who buy bank CDs, are better off. But borrowers, especially businesses, just have higher costs. But in any case, it is not not something special that Biden did. That would be like praising the mayor for sending the fire department to a fire. Yay, Mayor.

If I have missed anything that is fighting inflation, in particular anything Joe has done, please let me know.

My whole point is that inflation was not solely caused by Biden - the entire world is dealing with inflation, after all. Trump and Biden likely contributed to the inflation in the U.S. with some of the stimulus payments, but those were so long ago, and so minimal to individuals, that it’s hard to buy that they were the cause of long-term inflation. Kansas City Fed points to profiteering as the main cause of significant inflation in 2021: https://www.npr.org/2023/05/19/117718097...-inflation

The major economic policies of Biden, the IRA and CHIPS, are longer-term and aren’t just cash for nothing programs - they support new jobs and good wages, which are needed with unemployment so low. Not all spending is equal, after all. I imagine without these, functionally, government supported projects the chance that a recession actually had occurred would have been much higher. P

Interest rates are definitely one, if not the, primary reason for inflation reduction. But it’s not the only one as other country’s central banks have raised rates without similar success (although maybe they haven’t been as aggressive).

Perhaps the world was infected by US inflation. Maybe we are the perpetrator, not the victim.

Agree not all spending is equal. For example, I supported the aid to the UKraine, and would no matter who was Prez. some things are worth the cost. Other things just buy votes.

But Biden came in throwing money around like a drunken sailor, except that drunken sailors stopped when they ran out of money, and Biden didn’t. Imagine drunken sailors with printing presses. This unfunded spending had the effect of printing money and sparking inflation.

https://budget.house.gov/press-release/t...ng-record/

https://reason.com/2022/11/29/bidens-spe...ecedented/

Like Trump, Biden has overseen significant pandemic-related relief, but he also has ramped up spending on priorities well beyond COVID-19. The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), passed in March 2021, cost $1.8 trillion, more than half of the new spending enacted during Biden's time in office.

But it's the other expensive legislation Biden has signed that pushed him past Trump. The much-vaunted Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act spent another $765 billion, though the infrastructure expenditures will occur over the course of the next five years. The Jon Stewart-promoted Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics (PACT) Act contributed another $278 billion, while the recently passed CHIPS Act "chipped" in $255 billion more. And though congressional Democrats failed to pass Biden's Build Back Better legislation earlier this year, its eventual successor, the Inflation Reduction Act, is still estimated by the CBO to add another $51 billion to the federal ledger.


Do we really want to live in this spending spree another 6 years? Can we afford to? Or will it kill the American economy?

This attitude toward spending is the single biggest reason I think electing a Democrat in 2024 will be the worst thing that can happen.

(07-30-2023 10:37 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  The major economic policies of Biden, the IRA and CHIPS, are longer-term and aren’t just cash for nothing programs - they support new jobs and good wages, which are needed with unemployment so low.

Wow, someone has REALLY been drinking the party Kool-Aid. This is more boosterism that I've seen from anyone who is not partisan hack.

Seriously, Lad: this saddens me, as I thought your were more objective/less gullible than that.

(07-30-2023 11:20 AM)georgewebb Wrote:  

(07-30-2023 10:37 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  The major economic policies of Biden, the IRA and CHIPS, are longer-term and aren’t just cash for nothing programs - they support new jobs and good wages, which are needed with unemployment so low.

Wow, someone has REALLY been drinking the party Kool-Aid. This is more boosterism that I've seen from anyone who is not partisan hack.

Seriously, Lad: this saddens me, as I thought your were more objective/less gullible than that.

From what I have read, the CHIPS act has been a success already, resulting in investment in fab construction, which is one of the main purposes.

When it comes to the IRA, my understanding is that it’s directly impacting alternative energy funding from private investors in a substantial way that exceeded expectations.

Instead of being a pompous douche, maybe you can talk issues and not ad homs?

Edit: seriously, are you surprised someone who advocates for strong government support and funding for infrastructure and technology investments would be supportive of two major funding bills focused at, essentially, funding infrastructure and technology improvements?

Quote:they support new jobs and good wages, which are needed with unemployment so low.

I think you have that backwards.

one would want new jobs, and competition for better wages -- when unemployment is high, not low. These programs bolster a base in employment, and bolster falling wages.

Right now the problem is opposite that. Employment is tight, and wages are rising. Employment is built into the inflation picture both as a primary component, and a secondary effect component.

One of the metrics the Fed fixates on is the unemployment rate. The ratcheting of the interest rates up has several effects -- it lowers the money supply (reducing inflation), it makes banks tighten credit (thus reducing money supply, *and* reducing operating credit to firms), and the reduction of credit to companies puts a dent in corporate spending (which raises unemployment, and thus dampens the factor in inflation caused by tight employment conditions).

Your statement seems backwards.

I agree that the CHIPS act has upsides in strategic stance, and a hedge in the falling impact of globalization of commerce (which is the direction the world is headed), but the economic impacts are actually positive to the inflationary side. Again, this one is (and should be) balanced against the strategic interest of home sourcing semiconductors.

What Biden has done to increase inflation, both worldwide and in the USA:

1) His early moves against oil caused the price of energy to skyrocket worldwide, and that caused inflation everywhere.

2) The extreme deficit spending pumped so much more money into an economy chasing what was essentially a fixed supply of goods, and that caused inflation in the USA, with some effects felt worldwide.

3) Giving away money to people and disincentivizing them from working placed limitations on the ability of the supply side to meet demand that grew as people came out of COVID.


What can be done:

1) Conduct the war on climate change by implementing carbon reductions that are practical with current technology and economically feasible, instead of simply a war on petroleum. Things that can be done--a) wind and solar, but those are limited in impact; b) nuclear, following the French model of smaller package plants that can be replicated over and over, and recycling of nuclear waste; c) improvements to electric transmission and distribution networks; d) vast improvements in battery and other electrical storage technologies; and e) convert rails back to electricity, like Europe, because trains can take electricity from fixed supply lines instead of having to carry their fuel with them.

2) Take realistic steps to balance the budget, something neither party has been willing to do; democrats have blown up the deficit at every opportunity, and republicans have seemed content to leave it where they found it instead of reducing it; implement the recommendations Bowles-Simpson and Domenici-Rivlin, which are even more critical than they were a decade ago--flatter and broader (fewer/no non-business deductions/exclusions) income taxes, national consumption tax, build a stronger military for less money by converting 400K active duty slots to 1MM reserve slots at roughly half the cost, reverse the top-heavy rank structure, focus on defense rather than extraneous goals, reform procurement to provide more bang for the buck.

3) Reform the welfare state into a combination of Bismarck health care and a universal basic income based on Milton Friedman's negative income tax (NIT) or the Boortz-Linder prebate/prefund (the NIT adapted to a consumption tax paradigm); farm out the existing welfare hodge podge to the states on a voluntary basis, with the money they save because Bismarck makes Medicaid redundant.

(07-30-2023 11:41 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(07-30-2023 11:20 AM)georgewebb Wrote:  

(07-30-2023 10:37 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  The major economic policies of Biden, the IRA and CHIPS, are longer-term and aren’t just cash for nothing programs - they support new jobs and good wages, which are needed with unemployment so low.

Wow, someone has REALLY been drinking the party Kool-Aid. This is more boosterism that I've seen from anyone who is not partisan hack.

Seriously, Lad: this saddens me, as I thought your were more objective/less gullible than that.

From what I have read, the CHIPS act has been a success already, resulting in investment in fab construction, which is one of the main purposes.

When it comes to the IRA, my understanding is that it’s directly impacting alternative energy funding from private investors in a substantial way that exceeded expectations.

Instead of being a pompous douche, maybe you can talk issues and not ad homs?

Edit: seriously, are you surprised someone who advocates for strong government support and funding for infrastructure and technology investments would be supportive of two major funding bills focused at, essentially, funding infrastructure and technology improvements?

And much of the IRA is non-infrastructure, and heavily mainlined inflationary.

(07-30-2023 10:37 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  The major economic policies of Biden, the IRA and CHIPS, are longer-term and aren’t just cash for nothing programs - they support new jobs and good wages, which are needed with unemployment so low.

No, they aren't. They're just bureaucratic boondoggles. Take a close look at how much money goes to administration and overhead versus actual construction.

I would expect my wife's dogs to produce more shovel-ready jobs than IRA and CHIPS.

Lad, thanks for your reply. As the bluest guy on this site, your response was the one I was most interested in.

George/Tanq/Numbers have refuted the Bidenomics myth better than I ever could.

You excuse a lot by saying everybody has inflation,, we are just part of the crowd, therefore it could not be Biden's policies.

But the timing is such that, as soon as Biden got into office and started spending and started his War on Oil, then the inflation figures started up.

Plus, remember, we are the big guy (or one of them) in the world economy, not the other way around. We infected the world, not the other way around. Spending in Nigeria or Norway did not cause our inflation.

Printing money is inflationary. That is what Biden did the first two years, with the aid of his Democratic Congress. That is what he still would be doing, if we didn't have a GOP House.

Biden is the one who coined the word "Bidenomics", as though inflation rates falling are the result of some program he instituted in his brilliance. What program? he touts selected, cherry picked stats, but what did he actually do besides stop spending involuntarily? And it was his own actions that spiked inflation in the first place.

The term Bidenomics is misleading. It was not Bidenomics that caused inflation - it was Democrat-onomics. It's the old spend and tax the rich scheme that is the hallmark of the Dem party. And they want to do it more. And more. And more. And then when the economy craters, they will blame the greedy rich.

Seems to be plenty on the Blue team who want to see this happen. Add in the anti-Trump voters and and we may get to see it again. However, Bidenomics, IMO, has given us a great short term lesson in why to NOT vote for Democrats. Ever.

Being considerably older than you, I remember the Carter days. 20+% prime rate. Prices jumping monthly. I thought those days were over - until Biden took office. Didn't take a lot of Biden to set the wheels rolling.

Bidenflation

(07-29-2023 02:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Looks like old Joe has been told to run on his economic record.

So I thought I would throw in a few anecdotal happenings.

Bought gas yesterday at $3.469. See below.

Then went and got my Senior haircut. Ran $17. Two to three years back, $11. Went by the chicken place for lunch. $11. Used to run $8, before Biden. Chicken place advertising for help $16/hr.

I know the rate of inflation is dropping. Just the rate. But the last 2.5 years is now baked in. Anybody who thinks my haircut will revert to $11, raise your little blue hand.

Still down hundreds of thousands in my retirement account.

Electric bill about double two years ago.

I presume most nonSmurfs are having similar experiences.

Yay Biden.

Because rampant money printing began January 2021. And interest rates were kept artificially low beginning at that time.

I’m being highly sarcastic.

(07-31-2023 08:32 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Lad, thanks for your reply. As the bluest guy on this site, your response was the one I was most interested in.

George/Tanq/Numbers have refuted the Bidenomics myth better than I ever could.

You excuse a lot by saying everybody has inflation,, we are just part of the crowd, therefore it could not be Biden's policies.

But the timing is such that, as soon as Biden got into office and started spending and started his War on Oil, then the inflation figures started up.

Plus, remember, we are the big guy (or one of them) in the world economy, not the other way around. We infected the world, not the other way around. Spending in Nigeria or Norway did not cause our inflation.

Printing money is inflationary. That is what Biden did the first two years, with the aid of his Democratic Congress. That is what he still would be doing, if we didn't have a GOP House.

Biden is the one who coined the word "Bidenomics", as though inflation rates falling are the result of some program he instituted in his brilliance. What program? he touts selected, cherry picked stats, but what did he actually do besides stop spending involuntarily? And it was his own actions that spiked inflation in the first place.

The term Bidenomics is misleading. It was not Bidenomics that caused inflation - it was Democrat-onomics. It's the old spend and tax the rich scheme that is the hallmark of the Dem party. And they want to do it more. And more. And more. And then when the economy craters, they will blame the greedy rich.

Seems to be plenty on the Blue team who want to see this happen. Add in the anti-Trump voters and and we may get to see it again. However, Bidenomics, IMO, has given us a great short term lesson in why to NOT vote for Democrats. Ever.

Being considerably older than you, I remember the Carter days. 20+% prime rate. Prices jumping monthly. I thought those days were over - until Biden took office. Didn't take a lot of Biden to set the wheels rolling.

It’s been a long time since I’ve read such a huge load of unadulterated politically skewed garbage. This is truly laughable sh!t.

As if the money printing party began in January 2021. This economy should have crashed long before Biden got in office, but artificially low interest rates and rampant money printing kept the party rolling. Just keep pushing money into the economy and all is good. Seriously, how long had we been pushing free money into the banks (ie, the wealthy)?

Once the printing starts, the only way to stop it is to let the economy crash. Trump wasn’t going to let that happen, and neither is Biden. But this game will last for only so long…

The problem is, the longer the money printing game is played, the worse the situation gets. The only way to keep it going is to print exponentially more money.

The fed tries to fight inflation by raising rates. But after a decade of creating a debt bubble, a massive amount of corporate debt is coming due for all sorts of zombie companies. What to do? Lower rates again? Yup, inflation is on its way again.

I distinctly remember having a similar conversation back in 2019, and the only difference is that this President doesn’t moan about raising interest rates like Trump did. The signs were there back then as the Fed took over the overnight money lending, pumping more money into the system - even as banks wouldn’t lend to each other

Oh, and last I heard, deficits are actually lower under Biden. To complain about spending just NOW is ludicrous.

(07-30-2023 11:41 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  When it comes to the IRA, my understanding is that it’s directly impacting alternative energy funding from private investors in a substantial way that exceeded expectations.

But the topic was inflation... and the IRA specifically is there to reduce inflation... its in the name... so why is the most significant accomplishment that you can think of for the Inflation Reduction Act to 'exceed expectations' (which realistically could mean that it created ONE job but was expected to create zero... since that shouldn't be a major focus of a bill with that name )

Investing in such projects isn't per se a bad thing... that's not what I'm saying... what I'm saying is that NOT spending that money but instead paying down the debt would probably have done a lot more as an Act to Reduce Inflation than 'exceeding' whatever expectation there might have been from this 'not on point' aspect of the bill.

It's a bit like asking Mrs Lincoln 'other than that, how did you enjoy the play'.