(07-04-2023 06:22 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: I don’t get why the PAC 10 continues this charade that GK is going to put together a tv deal with great money and exposure. They aren’t going to get Big 12 money. They may get a deal that looks like it’s almost Big 12 money but once production costs are deducted, the real value is far less. The simple solution is this:
The Big 10 reaches out to the schools they are interested in with their offer (likely a phased in plan, that eventually builds up to full shares).
Said schools then inform the 4Cs schools of said offer.
4Cs approach the Big 12 and announce their move.
2 days later, the Big 10 announces their expansion.
I agree with both you and Schmolik on this one. But for slightly different reasons.
The Big 10 will take what they want from the PAC 12 because the SEC isn't really interested in them at all. And why not? Because SEC fans aren't interested in them. The Networks might think they can sell the SEC fans on some PAC schools to expand the time zone window, but SEC fans won't buy it and it would piss them off. Sankey knows this. Even ESPN knows this. If ESPN wants those late night windows they'll have to get them through the Big 12 or pay the PAC for them.
I have suggested Colorado for the SEC, but only because they used to be Big 8 and then Big 12. If the SEC decided to take Kansas, Colorado makes sense as the #2. They fit with Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas and have history and fan interest in those games and with Texas recruiting ties re-established by playing Texas and A&M maybe their return to their former form, which was never truly great but was competitive.
This is why the Big 10 will never succeed in the Deep South. Outside of Miami which is more Northeastern culturally, there is no fan interest no matter how many snowbirds they think they attract. The other exception is Virginia which is now Beltway and not Southern, and though not Northern Midwestern either is more Northern than Southern.
In spite of the Risk board mentality which even the bloggers and beat writers now plug for interest, college sports is regional and still has traditions.
I fully expect the Big 10 to take more PAC schools simply to jazz up business on the West Coast and because culturally it works. I expect Deep South ACC schools to continue to hope for the SEC for the same reasons.
Where the SEC was smart was in realizing early that the mentality and culture of the Southwest, while not Southeastern, was similar enough that the two together made sense, as well as cents. The Big 12 coming prior to the major defections to the SEC also really helped. As the Big 8 blended with the old SWC members they remained close enough geographically, and got acclimated enough culturally for the Old Big 8 schools to begin to have enough of a similar culture to acclimate better toward the SEC. Passion wise for the sport they fit. The lack of significate markets among them also kept the Big 10 at bay early when the Big 10 culture would have been the preferred choice. Kansas in the SEC is now not unthinkable, and Colorado connected to Texas instead of California is not unthinkable either. That still doesn't mean the SEC will add Colorado, just that if it did not expand out of the ACC, if ESPN managed to keep the ACC together to become the #3 conference in a 3 conference upper tier, Colorado and Kansas would be appealing market wise and to add value to the winter schedule.
I do think that cultural sanity will be maintained in future additions, whether from the ACC or PAC 12. I also think 20 may be maxing it out, unless the Big 10 and SEC are simply paid to add the niche markets the networks want and the networks only want 2 conferences in the end.
Obviously, the massive prize is Notre Dame and the likelihood is that they join neither. They could easily be accommodated as an independent with another school like B.Y.U. attached in the same way.
The SEC's targets which could fit outside of those in the ACC would be Kansas and Colorado with all of Colorado's value being tied up in marketing a new time zone. Colorado playing any SEC school late would be of interest in the Central Time Zone. The thing which makes it improbable is I don't see SEC fans buying into playing Arizona schools and Colorado by itself could only provide 4 or 5 such games.
IMO, this is the hidden underbelly of the PAC 12 contract problem. The Big 10 might be able to justify 3 more PAC schools. Washington the most valuable, Oregon the most visible, Stanford a high-profile school with incredible academics are the three. Without Notre Dame maybe Cal becomes the evener for scheduling with the moves, maybe. Outside of the longshot that the SEC could entertain adding Colorado, there is no interest in PAC 12 schools from the SEC. As fun as it is to contemplate a national conference the high dollar value of the SEC is pinned to extreme regionalism, and a fervor for those games which sells nationally.
That fervor says that Florida State and Clemson fit. That North Carolina would be welcomed for the market and to create must see basketball games with Kentucky.
Duke was great under coach K, and maybe will remain so, but Carolina has always been great. Kansas fits right there as well. I would not be surprised if the SEC decided to double dip national brands. Two for football and two for hoops and call it a day. I can see a Virginia school in the SEC for markets should Vanderbilt decide to be the SEC's first all but Football member and Duke decided to join them in that capacity. Perhaps 20 full and two partial is the way the SEC winds up. We'll see.
24 for either the SEC or Big 10 will only happen, IMO, if the networks underwrite them.
I think the board is anticipating the correct resolution of the PAC 12. Eventually, and unless the contract situation magically improves, some of them are headed to the Big 12 where both FOX and ESPN can have just enough late night programming to meet their needs, and the Big 10 will move on to either 18 or 20 with the ones it really wants.
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"Big Ten Waiting for PAC 12 to Implode"
