I suffered through the last 5 USF coaches and got quite jaded... but something about Golesh really makes be a bit more optimistic this time...

And with our profoundly lighter schedule schedule, even a MODERATE improvement might snag us 6 wins. Thats what I'm going with... 6-6.

W NCAT
W @ GA So
W Louisiana
L @ UGA
W @ Tulane
W USF
L @ UTSA
W Memphis
W FAU
W @ Navy
W Temple
W @ North Texas

Win over UTSA in rematch at Alamodome. Assuming the best two conference records play in champ game.

I’m sipping the Koolaid. Feel good about our team if we get OLine and QB play figured out. If we don’t, then we lose to Ga So, LA, UGA, Tulane, UTSA, Memphis, Navy.

Rice

9/02 @ TexasU – L
9/09 U of Houston – L
9/16 Texas Southern – W
9/23 @ USF - L
9/30 East Carolina - L
10/07 Connecticut - W
10/19 @ Tulsa - L
10/28 Tulane – L
11/04 SMU – L
11/11 @ UTSA - L
11/18 @ Charlotte - W
11/25 Florida Atlantic – Tossup, depending on how well Mensa has FAU playing by year end.

3-9 or 4-8

(06-29-2023 07:26 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 07:18 PM)Runner Wrote:  UTSA
Best 10-2
Most likely 8-4
Worst 7-5

Exactly the same for Memphis.

I'm going to amend this slightly.

Most likely 9-3.

Wins: Bethune-Cookman, at Ark State, Navy, Boise, at UAB, at UNT, USF, at CLT, at Temple.

Losses: Missouri (in KC), Tulane, SMU

Our hardest games are home or neutral. Our road schedule is much easier than usual.

I moved from 8-4 to 9-3 by switching Boise to a win, since it's a home game for us.

The schedulers allowed us to miss ECU and UTSA.

(07-03-2023 01:55 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 07:26 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 07:18 PM)Runner Wrote:  UTSA
Best 10-2
Most likely 8-4
Worst 7-5

Exactly the same for Memphis.

I'm going to amend this slightly.

Most likely 9-3.

Wins: Bethune-Cookman, at Ark State, Navy, Boise, at UAB, at UNT, USF, at CLT, at Temple.

Losses: Missouri (in KC), Tulane, SMU

Our hardest games are home or neutral. Our road schedule is much easier than usual.

I moved from 8-4 to 9-3 by switching Boise to a win, since it's a home game for us.

The schedulers allowed us to miss ECU and UTSA.

I'm still at 7-5, maybe 8-3 at best ( acknowledging the weak schedule). And the tragedy is RS & LV keep their jobs, ensuring more mediocrity for years to come & with that irrelevance.

(07-03-2023 06:51 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(07-03-2023 01:55 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 07:26 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 07:18 PM)Runner Wrote:  UTSA
Best 10-2
Most likely 8-4
Worst 7-5

Exactly the same for Memphis.

I'm going to amend this slightly.

Most likely 9-3.

Wins: Bethune-Cookman, at Ark State, Navy, Boise, at UAB, at UNT, USF, at CLT, at Temple.

Losses: Missouri (in KC), Tulane, SMU

Our hardest games are home or neutral. Our road schedule is much easier than usual.

I moved from 8-4 to 9-3 by switching Boise to a win, since it's a home game for us.

The schedulers allowed us to miss ECU and UTSA.

I'm still at 7-5, maybe 8-3 at best ( acknowledging the weak schedule). And the tragedy is RS & LV keep their jobs, ensuring more mediocrity for years to come & with that irrelevance.

Per ESPN's Game Matchup Predictor, we are currently favored in 10 games:

Bethune Cookman 99%
@Ark State 69%
Navy 85%
Boise State 60%
Tulane 54%
@UAB 59%
@UNT 60%
South Florida 81%
Charlotte 77%
@ Temple 71%

We are dogs in 2 games:

@Missouri 35%
SMU 49%

Let's call anything between 45% and 55% a tossup. Let's call 60% not a cinch. Let's call anything around or over 70% a solid favorite.

So going in, we should be 10-2.

But let's say we lose any tossups. That's Tulane at 54% (SMU at 49% is already counted as a loss, even though we only lost by 3 last year in Dallas).

Now we're 9-3.

Let's say we lose all those 60% and less. That's Boise, UAB and UNT.

Now we're at 6-6, having lost every game where we weren't at least a 69% favorite. That has to be the floor. I think that gets RS fired.

But now let's be more realistic. Of the 2 tossups (SMU and Tulane), we should win one. Both are at home.

At or around 60%, we have 3 games. Boise, @UAB and @UNT. Let's say we win 2.

Now we're right back to 9-3, which is where I have us.

We also could play out of our minds and be 11-1, b/c we're really only far outclassed by Missouri, and the game is in Kansas City. But the next hardest games (Tulane and SMU) are at home.

So, my final forecast is 9-3, with a ceiling of 11-1, and a floor of 7-5 (we aren't losing every game below 69%).

[quote='Purple n Gold' pid='18999257' dateline='1688124674']
ECU

Best : 10-2

Most Likely : 8-4

Worst : 5-7

If our QB play does not diminish greatly with Garcia at the helm (or whoever is QB1).. I think at best we could be nearing double digit wins by the end of the season. For me, that will be unlikely though.

I believe there will be some learning moments and most likely we will drop games against any 4 of Michigan, App State, SMU, Tulane, UTSA or Navy.



Best: 8-4

Most Likely: 7-5

Worst: 6-6

According to everyone predictions that are playing UAB here and on social media we will be 1-11. We won't finish 1-11.

I'll just say bring it!

(07-04-2023 09:21 AM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  According to everyone predictions that are playing UAB here and on social media we will be 1-11. We won't finish 1-11.

I'll just say bring it!

That applies to almost all predictions, lol. I think almost everybody is overstating their case, but that's what fans do in preseason.

The MEMPHIS football team is perfectly set up for solid success in 2023:

• Favored in most games
• Draw toughest AAC opponents Tulane and SMU at home
• Draw road games at rebuilding UAB and weak UNCC
• Avoid playing top newcomer UTSA and old nemesis ECU
• 3 year starter Henigan returns at QB behind a damn decent OL
  

However, most TIGER fans have learned to account for Coach Silverfail's incredible skill for choking games. He EXCELS at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Dude is THE UNDISPUTED MASTER at this. 2022 examples are the Houston home game 4th quarter collapse and the 4 OT choke job at ECU.

This schedule screams 10-2 to most rational individuals. I would normally agree citing probable losses as the "neutral site" game in St Louis against Missouri and either the Tulane or SMU home game.

However, the Silverfail factor ABSOLUTELY must be accounted for.

Best case: 10-2 (never happen)
Likely: 8-4
Worse case: 6-6 or worse (should result in Silverfail's dismissal but who knows....)

I think the spread for the Owls is going to be huge.
Best scenario - 9-3 (not counting bowl game)
most likely - 7-5 (again, not counting bowl game)
worst scenario - 4-8

CFB teams that are listed as underdogs in the most games this season. Lots of AAC teams here.

11: Charlotte and UAB.

10: Tulsa (and Cincinnati in the Big 12).

9: ECU, USF.

That's 5 of 14 for us.

14-0

Any computer rating won’t place ECU well because the offense lost production and some lateral turnover in the transfer portal on defense. I would bet a lot of money that ECU won’t be an underdog in 9 games this season.

What that doesn’t show is that ECU returns All-Conference Rahjai Harris from injury, has Garcia who as #7 QB in his class, and has added a few P5 WRs through the portal. The defense should be equivalent in talent to last year, the players added at LB and DB may be better suited for our defense.

(07-05-2023 03:39 PM)panicstricken Wrote:  14-0

Absolutely!

(07-05-2023 03:44 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  Any computer rating won’t place ECU well because the offense lost production and some lateral turnover in the transfer portal on defense. I would bet a lot of money that ECU won’t be an underdog in 9 games this season.

What that doesn’t show is that ECU returns All-Conference Rahjai Harris from injury, has Garcia who as #7 QB in his class, and has added a few P5 WRs through the portal. The defense should be equivalent in talent to last year, the players added at LB and DB may be better suited for our defense.

I was surprised to see ECU at 9. My assumption is they will be much better than that. We'll see.

You and I can count together as the season goes along. After our discussion on the stadiums, I don't trust your math.

(07-05-2023 03:13 PM)TripleA Wrote:  CFB teams that are listed as underdogs in the most games this season. Lots of AAC teams here.

11: Charlotte and UAB.

10: Tulsa (and Cincinnati in the Big 12).

9: ECU, USF.

That's 5 of 14 for us.

Hard to believe Rice is not on there.

(07-05-2023 04:13 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 03:44 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  Any computer rating won’t place ECU well because the offense lost production and some lateral turnover in the transfer portal on defense. I would bet a lot of money that ECU won’t be an underdog in 9 games this season.

What that doesn’t show is that ECU returns All-Conference Rahjai Harris from injury, has Garcia who as #7 QB in his class, and has added a few P5 WRs through the portal. The defense should be equivalent in talent to last year, the players added at LB and DB may be better suited for our defense.

I was surprised to see ECU at 9. My assumption is they will be much better than that. We'll see.

You and I can count together as the season goes along. After our discussion on the stadiums, I don't trust your math.

Gardner Webb Tulsa Charlotte Rice. Would you put ECU as an underdog in any of those games. That’s not including Marshall App FAU Navy which ECU could easily be favored in depending on how the season is going.

UTSA

UH-W
TX State-W
Army-W
Tennessee-L
Temple-W
UAB-W
FAU-W
East Carolina-W
NTU-BIG WIN
Rice-W
USF-W
Tulane-L

10-2

Best Case: 11-2, conference champs and an invitation to a major bowl.
Most Likely: 8-4 with losses to UTSA, Michigan, Tulane OR SMU, App OR Marshall. We are invited to a minor bowl game.
Worst Case: 5-7, with wins coming over Tulsa, Rice, Charlotte, Gardner-Webb and one other.