(06-26-2023 05:00 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 01:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 12:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 08:07 AM)ken d Wrote:  My problem with all this is the "if this could happen soon" part. Without that caveat, I have a very hard time seeing a path to that final outcome, namely a single Super SEC of 32 teams. It leaves too many schools severely damaged to the point where litigation would be inevitable and prolonged.

That isn't to say the SEC won't expand, and even try to attract all the top football programs under its roof. I just don't see the Big Ten capitulating and ceding its best programs to the SEC.

There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

2030. The only contract in question that matters is the ACC's. Can you or can't you dissolve, and would ESPN cover those left behind for the duration of the contract at the contracted rate? No damage financially, no damages. Exit fees? Yes. Damages? No. The Herculean part of that is not some schools moving, and not exit fees. The tough part is working it so that ESPN covers those left behind for the duration. That would mean that the departing schools still needed to be able to honor their contract with ESPN. That would indicate the SEC and it would likely mean that the negotiated part would be incremental increases which bring those schools up to the SEC contracted rates. Nothing is impossible, just improbable, unless consensus is reached.

Access and no loss of revenue for the contracted period. No sudden cash layout for ESPN, Exit fees paid in full, and the SEC being convinced that profitability would be there beyond the contracted period of time for each school taken.

If we are talking 2 to 4 it's likely the profitability remains beyond the contracted period of the SEC. It's also likely that ESPN could backfill from the PAC 12 and sculpt a product worthy of the current payouts. And it is likely then that the new ACC would be a healthier option for a P3 than the Big 12, which should help it further grow with brands like T.C.U., Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, schools who have a higher valuation than the 6th best school in the current ACC.

Then you wait and see what happens in 2030. If the Big 10 upper tier jumps the rest can roll in with the ACC. Then you have the two tiers you were speaking of earlier.

The true downside is for the ACC to wait until 2032-4 to start rethinking its position, because at that point you won't have one. You become the PAC 12 all over again. That's when FSU jumps, when UNC rethinks their future in terms of nothing but Woad Blue, when Miami gains traction as a market for someone besides the SEC, and if still viable Clemson is taken. Beyond that nada. The Big 10 if it survives and the SEC will be looking at diminishing returns if a super league has not been formed and will have no incentive to add.

The worst possible future for anyone not in the 16 member Big 10 and SEC will be to get to 2036 without having moved. Whatever the number of schools in the Big 10 and SEC by 2036 will be their number moving forward. The financial impetus for further consolidation will have expired. And between now and then for any school who does decide to move there will be a $440 million dollar upside and as much security as any school will have beyond 2036.

The "damages" to some of the left behinds come in the form of "lack of association".
Take Wake Forest as an example. They have been successful at the gate knowing they had Clemson/Florida State/NC State in rotation at home every year and increased play with Carolina.
Taking match-ups with Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Carolina off of any future schedules with the Deacs would create a measurable deficit before 2036, for which they will sue. ESPN might be able to make the media rights the same through 2036, but to say there are no damages is

I was damaged by my first girlfriend when we broke up. But, she was 2 years older and moved on. She was 6th grade and I was 4th. We rode the same bus. When she went to Jr. High, I was left behind. I survived and thrived since the damage was all in my mind and only in my associations.

There are schools in many of the older conferences which were left behind decades ago, but which still ride the same bus. The class standing and bus are about to change. Wake and schools like it will survive, though they will no longer be in the same class, they will find new sweethearts. That's just life.

Ever had a class reunion? Do all come back? Heck no! Life happened, they made new friends, remembered what jerks they had in class with them when growing up, didn't like to be pigeonholed, or are just too busy. Only the townies love the reunions because they are stuck in the past and want to see the old gang. And they know the ones who did the best will come home to gloat while most normal people are happy where they are now and don't yearn for what was.

Realignment is a lot like high school reunions. The last one I went to was my 10th and too many decades ago. My dear friends from then I kept up with. The rest? Not much at all. At the 10th my crowd was looking around at the locals drinking up the booze we collectively paid for, and at them reliving their high school memories. We had one kid in the class with a speech impediment and some of the locals were still making fun of him though he had played college ball and could have mopped the floor with them. I think of them as P5 wannabes in realignment. They live to drag people down and make fun of those who succeeded.

This consolidation is about who will succeed beyond the difficult days ahead. It is about which schools live within their means and which schools can afford more. And it is about those who are looking to the future and those who are stuck in the past. I don't believe your school wants the past. I think it wants to thrive and looks to the future in all aspects except governance. But I do think it likes to go back to the reunions to bask in its successes instead of live with and compete with other successful schools on a daily basis. UNC is the high school class president who also did well in life and likes his reunions to both relive when he discovered he was different and to show off a bit. It will be your undoing if you cling to that past too long.

(06-25-2023 09:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 04:35 PM)BeepBeepJeep Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 12:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 08:07 AM)ken d Wrote:  My problem with all this is the "if this could happen soon" part. Without that caveat, I have a very hard time seeing a path to that final outcome, namely a single Super SEC of 32 teams. It leaves too many schools severely damaged to the point where litigation would be inevitable and prolonged.

That isn't to say the SEC won't expand, and even try to attract all the top football programs under its roof. I just don't see the Big Ten capitulating and ceding its best programs to the SEC.

There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

There's also 0 chance that the top tier Big Ten schools, who are the exact ones that empowered Delaney to tell ESPN to pound sand and just aligned on an NFL style deal, then jump into a conference that's basically ESPN's puppet in this scenario in order to make essentially the same money in a super conference they'll never have a chance at winning? Let's be real, they'll take their once a decade national title and inflated regular season records and ride that until they gravy train ends.

And yet there have been talks between the SEC and some of those schools. There are some rather large stadia that need filling in a few Big 10 locations.

I'll believe that Nebraska and OHio State talked to the SEC about COVID year football.

Heck, I'll believe that they talked about a super conference.

I'm 100% confident in saying that Michigan would burn their stadium to the ground and give up football before they'd join the SEC.

(06-26-2023 04:26 PM)BeepBeepJeep Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 09:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 04:35 PM)BeepBeepJeep Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 12:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

There's also 0 chance that the top tier Big Ten schools, who are the exact ones that empowered Delaney to tell ESPN to pound sand and just aligned on an NFL style deal, then jump into a conference that's basically ESPN's puppet in this scenario in order to make essentially the same money in a super conference they'll never have a chance at winning? Let's be real, they'll take their once a decade national title and inflated regular season records and ride that until they gravy train ends.

And yet there have been talks between the SEC and some of those schools. There are some rather large stadia that need filling in a few Big 10 locations.

I'll believe that Nebraska and OHio State talked to the SEC about COVID year football.

Heck, I'll believe that they talked about a super conference.

I'm 100% confident in saying that Michigan would burn their stadium to the ground and give up football before they'd join the SEC.

No arguments on that assessment. I completely agree. You may consider adding Iowa to the list of those who likely have spoken with the SEC, initially during COVID, and perhaps Penn State.

(06-26-2023 12:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-26-2023 05:00 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 01:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 12:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

2030. The only contract in question that matters is the ACC's. Can you or can't you dissolve, and would ESPN cover those left behind for the duration of the contract at the contracted rate? No damage financially, no damages. Exit fees? Yes. Damages? No. The Herculean part of that is not some schools moving, and not exit fees. The tough part is working it so that ESPN covers those left behind for the duration. That would mean that the departing schools still needed to be able to honor their contract with ESPN. That would indicate the SEC and it would likely mean that the negotiated part would be incremental increases which bring those schools up to the SEC contracted rates. Nothing is impossible, just improbable, unless consensus is reached.

Access and no loss of revenue for the contracted period. No sudden cash layout for ESPN, Exit fees paid in full, and the SEC being convinced that profitability would be there beyond the contracted period of time for each school taken.

If we are talking 2 to 4 it's likely the profitability remains beyond the contracted period of the SEC. It's also likely that ESPN could backfill from the PAC 12 and sculpt a product worthy of the current payouts. And it is likely then that the new ACC would be a healthier option for a P3 than the Big 12, which should help it further grow with brands like T.C.U., Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, schools who have a higher valuation than the 6th best school in the current ACC.

Then you wait and see what happens in 2030. If the Big 10 upper tier jumps the rest can roll in with the ACC. Then you have the two tiers you were speaking of earlier.

The true downside is for the ACC to wait until 2032-4 to start rethinking its position, because at that point you won't have one. You become the PAC 12 all over again. That's when FSU jumps, when UNC rethinks their future in terms of nothing but Woad Blue, when Miami gains traction as a market for someone besides the SEC, and if still viable Clemson is taken. Beyond that nada. The Big 10 if it survives and the SEC will be looking at diminishing returns if a super league has not been formed and will have no incentive to add.

The worst possible future for anyone not in the 16 member Big 10 and SEC will be to get to 2036 without having moved. Whatever the number of schools in the Big 10 and SEC by 2036 will be their number moving forward. The financial impetus for further consolidation will have expired. And between now and then for any school who does decide to move there will be a $440 million dollar upside and as much security as any school will have beyond 2036.

The "damages" to some of the left behinds come in the form of "lack of association".
Take Wake Forest as an example. They have been successful at the gate knowing they had Clemson/Florida State/NC State in rotation at home every year and increased play with Carolina.
Taking match-ups with Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Carolina off of any future schedules with the Deacs would create a measurable deficit before 2036, for which they will sue. ESPN might be able to make the media rights the same through 2036, but to say there are no damages is :bs:

I was damaged by my first girlfriend when we broke up. But, she was 2 years older and moved on. She was 6th grade and I was 4th. We rode the same bus. When she went to Jr. High, I was left behind. I survived and thrived since the damage was all in my mind and only in my associations.

There are schools in many of the older conferences which were left behind decades ago, but which still ride the same bus. The class standing and bus are about to change. Wake and schools like it will survive, though they will no longer be in the same class, they will find new sweethearts. That's just life.

Ever had a class reunion? Do all come back? Heck no! Life happened, they made new friends, remembered what jerks they had in class with them when growing up, didn't like to be pigeonholed, or are just too busy. Only the townies love the reunions because they are stuck in the past and want to see the old gang. And they know the ones who did the best will come home to gloat while most normal people are happy where they are now and don't yearn for what was.

Realignment is a lot like high school reunions. The last one I went to was my 10th and too many decades ago. My dear friends from then I kept up with. The rest? Not much at all. At the 10th my crowd was looking around at the locals drinking up the booze we collectively paid for, and at them reliving their high school memories. We had one kid in the class with a speech impediment and some of the locals were still making fun of him though he had played college ball and could have mopped the floor with them. I think of them as P5 wannabes in realignment. They live to drag people down and make fun of those who succeeded.

This consolidation is about who will succeed beyond the difficult days ahead. It is about which schools live within their means and which schools can afford more. And it is about those who are looking to the future and those who are stuck in the past. I don't believe your school wants the past. I think it wants to thrive and looks to the future in all aspects except governance. But I do think it likes to go back to the reunions to bask in its successes instead of live with and compete with other successful schools on a daily basis. UNC is the high school class president who also did well in life and likes his reunions to both relive when he discovered he was different and to show off a bit. It will be your undoing if you cling to that past too long.

The first lesson learned, JR is never fall for older women.
You should have known that the older one's only want you for your body and have gained enough worldly knowledge to pursue older men when they want to get serious. It's the older guys that have all of the money.

Interesting that you mentioned reunions.
I have been working with my high school's reunion committee for the last 40 years of so and have been involved in planning at least 7 reunions during that span. We just wrapped up our 55th last September and will soon start planning our 60th.
By most accounts they are pretty lavish affairs. The reunions cover two nights (Friday and Saturday) and a full list of activities on Saturday during the day.
For only $67 per person (class of '67) we provide free food and all you can drink. Friday nights are casual and Saturday evenings are a more upscale affair (with live music of course). The money is mostly raised from contributions from class members. Our budget for the 55th was $25,000. We spent $22,000 and donated three thousand to the school.

Unfortunately attrition has thinned our ranks over the years, but we still had better than a 20% participation rate of class members in 2022 out of a class of 465.

I think the secret of our success is not setting financial barriers for participation and making sure every class member could afford to attend.

I'm sorry that you haven't had better reunion experiences. Perhaps if your class President had been more of a leader instead of a peacock, you might look at things a little differently.
A good class President can appreciate the past, but is always looking ahead, trying to find the best path forward for as many as possible.
That is what leaders do........they lead.

(06-27-2023 03:50 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-26-2023 12:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-26-2023 05:00 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 01:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 12:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

2030. The only contract in question that matters is the ACC's. Can you or can't you dissolve, and would ESPN cover those left behind for the duration of the contract at the contracted rate? No damage financially, no damages. Exit fees? Yes. Damages? No. The Herculean part of that is not some schools moving, and not exit fees. The tough part is working it so that ESPN covers those left behind for the duration. That would mean that the departing schools still needed to be able to honor their contract with ESPN. That would indicate the SEC and it would likely mean that the negotiated part would be incremental increases which bring those schools up to the SEC contracted rates. Nothing is impossible, just improbable, unless consensus is reached.

Access and no loss of revenue for the contracted period. No sudden cash layout for ESPN, Exit fees paid in full, and the SEC being convinced that profitability would be there beyond the contracted period of time for each school taken.

If we are talking 2 to 4 it's likely the profitability remains beyond the contracted period of the SEC. It's also likely that ESPN could backfill from the PAC 12 and sculpt a product worthy of the current payouts. And it is likely then that the new ACC would be a healthier option for a P3 than the Big 12, which should help it further grow with brands like T.C.U., Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, schools who have a higher valuation than the 6th best school in the current ACC.

Then you wait and see what happens in 2030. If the Big 10 upper tier jumps the rest can roll in with the ACC. Then you have the two tiers you were speaking of earlier.

The true downside is for the ACC to wait until 2032-4 to start rethinking its position, because at that point you won't have one. You become the PAC 12 all over again. That's when FSU jumps, when UNC rethinks their future in terms of nothing but Woad Blue, when Miami gains traction as a market for someone besides the SEC, and if still viable Clemson is taken. Beyond that nada. The Big 10 if it survives and the SEC will be looking at diminishing returns if a super league has not been formed and will have no incentive to add.

The worst possible future for anyone not in the 16 member Big 10 and SEC will be to get to 2036 without having moved. Whatever the number of schools in the Big 10 and SEC by 2036 will be their number moving forward. The financial impetus for further consolidation will have expired. And between now and then for any school who does decide to move there will be a $440 million dollar upside and as much security as any school will have beyond 2036.

The "damages" to some of the left behinds come in the form of "lack of association".
Take Wake Forest as an example. They have been successful at the gate knowing they had Clemson/Florida State/NC State in rotation at home every year and increased play with Carolina.
Taking match-ups with Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Carolina off of any future schedules with the Deacs would create a measurable deficit before 2036, for which they will sue. ESPN might be able to make the media rights the same through 2036, but to say there are no damages is

I was damaged by my first girlfriend when we broke up. But, she was 2 years older and moved on. She was 6th grade and I was 4th. We rode the same bus. When she went to Jr. High, I was left behind. I survived and thrived since the damage was all in my mind and only in my associations.

There are schools in many of the older conferences which were left behind decades ago, but which still ride the same bus. The class standing and bus are about to change. Wake and schools like it will survive, though they will no longer be in the same class, they will find new sweethearts. That's just life.

Ever had a class reunion? Do all come back? Heck no! Life happened, they made new friends, remembered what jerks they had in class with them when growing up, didn't like to be pigeonholed, or are just too busy. Only the townies love the reunions because they are stuck in the past and want to see the old gang. And they know the ones who did the best will come home to gloat while most normal people are happy where they are now and don't yearn for what was.

Realignment is a lot like high school reunions. The last one I went to was my 10th and too many decades ago. My dear friends from then I kept up with. The rest? Not much at all. At the 10th my crowd was looking around at the locals drinking up the booze we collectively paid for, and at them reliving their high school memories. We had one kid in the class with a speech impediment and some of the locals were still making fun of him though he had played college ball and could have mopped the floor with them. I think of them as P5 wannabes in realignment. They live to drag people down and make fun of those who succeeded.

This consolidation is about who will succeed beyond the difficult days ahead. It is about which schools live within their means and which schools can afford more. And it is about those who are looking to the future and those who are stuck in the past. I don't believe your school wants the past. I think it wants to thrive and looks to the future in all aspects except governance. But I do think it likes to go back to the reunions to bask in its successes instead of live with and compete with other successful schools on a daily basis. UNC is the high school class president who also did well in life and likes his reunions to both relive when he discovered he was different and to show off a bit. It will be your undoing if you cling to that past too long.

The first lesson learned, JR is never fall for older women.
You should have known that the older one's only want you for your body and have gained enough worldly knowledge to pursue older men when they want to get serious. It's the older guys that have all of the money.

Interesting that you mentioned reunions.
I have been working with my high school's reunion committee for the last 40 years of so and have been involved in planning at least 7 reunions during that span. We just wrapped up our 55th last September and will soon start planning our 60th.
By most accounts they are pretty lavish affairs. The reunions cover two nights (Friday and Saturday) and a full list of activities on Saturday during the day.
For only $67 per person (class of '67) we provide free food and all you can drink. Friday nights are casual and Saturday evenings are a more upscale affair (with live music of course). The money is mostly raised from contributions from class members. Our budget for the 55th was $25,000. We spent $22,000 and donated three thousand to the school.

Unfortunately attrition has thinned our ranks over the years, but we still had better than a 20% participation rate of class members in 2022 out of a class of 465.

I think the secret of our success is not setting financial barriers for participation and making sure every class member could afford to attend.

I'm sorry that you haven't had better reunion experiences. Perhaps if your class President had been more of a leader instead of a peacock, you might look at things a little differently.
A good class President can appreciate the past, but is always looking ahead, trying to find the best path forward for as many as possible.
That is what leaders do........they lead.

Well X while in college I dated only 1 girl my age and one younger. The rest were all older including a calculus instructor and a lab partner who was a CPA coming back through for Med School. Both were about 10 years older than me and it was quite fun. Neither were looking for a MRS degree and knowing both of them only made me wiser in dealing with the younger ones. I married up a few years and it too has been marvelous. I found that most Junior and Senior girls had lost boyfriends to graduation, were serious, were better conversationalists, knew how to have a quiet special evening, and didn't drink up your money and puke in your car like the Freshman girls did. Only one was weird. She wanted to sit in my lap on every date, pretend I was Santa, and give me her Christmas wish list. At first I thought okay if this is the fantasy I can play along. It wasn't a fantasy. She just really wanted to recite her Christmas wants and wishes. It was a Seinfeld moment! When I married it was for an adventurous companion and an intellectual equal, who turned out be a great wife and solid Mom.

As for high schools, you must be delusional. Nobody at 18 is a real leader. The smart ones can fend for themselves.

As to attrition, I am reminded of the old Johnny Horton song "The Battle of New Orleans." "We fired our guns and the British kept a comin' there wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago." I feel more British every year as our ranks are steadily depleted in our march to the inevitable. I used to check the hometown obituaries to see if any of my buds lost a parent. Now when I check it it's to make sure I haven't lost my buds.

(06-27-2023 06:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-27-2023 03:50 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-26-2023 12:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-26-2023 05:00 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 01:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  2030. The only contract in question that matters is the ACC's. Can you or can't you dissolve, and would ESPN cover those left behind for the duration of the contract at the contracted rate? No damage financially, no damages. Exit fees? Yes. Damages? No. The Herculean part of that is not some schools moving, and not exit fees. The tough part is working it so that ESPN covers those left behind for the duration. That would mean that the departing schools still needed to be able to honor their contract with ESPN. That would indicate the SEC and it would likely mean that the negotiated part would be incremental increases which bring those schools up to the SEC contracted rates. Nothing is impossible, just improbable, unless consensus is reached.

Access and no loss of revenue for the contracted period. No sudden cash layout for ESPN, Exit fees paid in full, and the SEC being convinced that profitability would be there beyond the contracted period of time for each school taken.

If we are talking 2 to 4 it's likely the profitability remains beyond the contracted period of the SEC. It's also likely that ESPN could backfill from the PAC 12 and sculpt a product worthy of the current payouts. And it is likely then that the new ACC would be a healthier option for a P3 than the Big 12, which should help it further grow with brands like T.C.U., Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, schools who have a higher valuation than the 6th best school in the current ACC.

Then you wait and see what happens in 2030. If the Big 10 upper tier jumps the rest can roll in with the ACC. Then you have the two tiers you were speaking of earlier.

The true downside is for the ACC to wait until 2032-4 to start rethinking its position, because at that point you won't have one. You become the PAC 12 all over again. That's when FSU jumps, when UNC rethinks their future in terms of nothing but Woad Blue, when Miami gains traction as a market for someone besides the SEC, and if still viable Clemson is taken. Beyond that nada. The Big 10 if it survives and the SEC will be looking at diminishing returns if a super league has not been formed and will have no incentive to add.

The worst possible future for anyone not in the 16 member Big 10 and SEC will be to get to 2036 without having moved. Whatever the number of schools in the Big 10 and SEC by 2036 will be their number moving forward. The financial impetus for further consolidation will have expired. And between now and then for any school who does decide to move there will be a $440 million dollar upside and as much security as any school will have beyond 2036.

The "damages" to some of the left behinds come in the form of "lack of association".
Take Wake Forest as an example. They have been successful at the gate knowing they had Clemson/Florida State/NC State in rotation at home every year and increased play with Carolina.
Taking match-ups with Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Carolina off of any future schedules with the Deacs would create a measurable deficit before 2036, for which they will sue. ESPN might be able to make the media rights the same through 2036, but to say there are no damages is

I was damaged by my first girlfriend when we broke up. But, she was 2 years older and moved on. She was 6th grade and I was 4th. We rode the same bus. When she went to Jr. High, I was left behind. I survived and thrived since the damage was all in my mind and only in my associations.

There are schools in many of the older conferences which were left behind decades ago, but which still ride the same bus. The class standing and bus are about to change. Wake and schools like it will survive, though they will no longer be in the same class, they will find new sweethearts. That's just life.

Ever had a class reunion? Do all come back? Heck no! Life happened, they made new friends, remembered what jerks they had in class with them when growing up, didn't like to be pigeonholed, or are just too busy. Only the townies love the reunions because they are stuck in the past and want to see the old gang. And they know the ones who did the best will come home to gloat while most normal people are happy where they are now and don't yearn for what was.

Realignment is a lot like high school reunions. The last one I went to was my 10th and too many decades ago. My dear friends from then I kept up with. The rest? Not much at all. At the 10th my crowd was looking around at the locals drinking up the booze we collectively paid for, and at them reliving their high school memories. We had one kid in the class with a speech impediment and some of the locals were still making fun of him though he had played college ball and could have mopped the floor with them. I think of them as P5 wannabes in realignment. They live to drag people down and make fun of those who succeeded.

This consolidation is about who will succeed beyond the difficult days ahead. It is about which schools live within their means and which schools can afford more. And it is about those who are looking to the future and those who are stuck in the past. I don't believe your school wants the past. I think it wants to thrive and looks to the future in all aspects except governance. But I do think it likes to go back to the reunions to bask in its successes instead of live with and compete with other successful schools on a daily basis. UNC is the high school class president who also did well in life and likes his reunions to both relive when he discovered he was different and to show off a bit. It will be your undoing if you cling to that past too long.

The first lesson learned, JR is never fall for older women.
You should have known that the older one's only want you for your body and have gained enough worldly knowledge to pursue older men when they want to get serious. It's the older guys that have all of the money.

Interesting that you mentioned reunions.
I have been working with my high school's reunion committee for the last 40 years of so and have been involved in planning at least 7 reunions during that span. We just wrapped up our 55th last September and will soon start planning our 60th.
By most accounts they are pretty lavish affairs. The reunions cover two nights (Friday and Saturday) and a full list of activities on Saturday during the day.
For only $67 per person (class of '67) we provide free food and all you can drink. Friday nights are casual and Saturday evenings are a more upscale affair (with live music of course). The money is mostly raised from contributions from class members. Our budget for the 55th was $25,000. We spent $22,000 and donated three thousand to the school.

Unfortunately attrition has thinned our ranks over the years, but we still had better than a 20% participation rate of class members in 2022 out of a class of 465.

I think the secret of our success is not setting financial barriers for participation and making sure every class member could afford to attend.

I'm sorry that you haven't had better reunion experiences. Perhaps if your class President had been more of a leader instead of a peacock, you might look at things a little differently.
A good class President can appreciate the past, but is always looking ahead, trying to find the best path forward for as many as possible.
That is what leaders do........they lead.

Well X while in college I dated only 1 girl my age and one younger. The rest were all older including a calculus instructor and a lab partner who was a CPA coming back through for Med School. Both were about 10 years older than me and it was quite fun. Neither were looking for a MRS degree and knowing both of them only made me wiser in dealing with the younger ones. I married up a few years and it too has been marvelous. I found that most Junior and Senior girls had lost boyfriends to graduation, were serious, were better conversationalists, knew how to have a quiet special evening, and didn't drink up your money and puke in your car like the Freshman girls did. Only one was weird. She wanted to sit in my lap on every date, pretend I was Santa, and give me her Christmas wish list. At first I thought okay if this is the fantasy I can play along. It wasn't a fantasy. She just really wanted to recite her Christmas wants and wishes. It was a Seinfeld moment! When I married it was for an adventurous companion and an intellectual equal, who turned out be a great wife and solid Mom.

As for high schools, you must be delusional. Nobody at 18 is a real leader. The smart ones can fend for themselves.

As to attrition, I am reminded of the old Johnny Horton song "The Battle of New Orleans." "We fired our guns and the British kept a comin' there wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago." I feel more British every year as our ranks are steadily depleted in our march to the inevitable. I used to check the hometown obituaries to see if any of my buds lost a parent. Now when I check it it's to make sure I haven't lost my buds.

Yep!
"We fired our cannon till the barrel melted down, so we grabbed a alligator and we fought another round, we filled his head with cannon balls and powered his behind and when we touched the powder off....that 'gator lost his mind....."

I guess we'll see whether holding on to principles will be the correct approach or not.
Sounds like you have been smart enough to hold on to the same women after you made an intelligent choice......that's a good philosophy to live by.

(06-12-2023 01:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  PAC 12 revenue payouts for 2022 were 37 million.

ACC revenue payouts for 2022 were 37.9 million plus bowl and playoff money and tourney creds.

The SEC payouts were 49.9 but will jump closer to 75 by 2024.

What are the Options?

ESPN could move 4 ACC schools to the SEC and create a 20 team conference.

Let's assume that the schools most anxious to make more are Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina. Or that they are Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia.

In either case the ACC is reduced to 10 full member schools and Notre Dame as a partial.

Notre Dame requires games in Georgia, Florida, and might like them in Louisiana and Texas.

ESPN knows it needs late night games and preferably games with decent content.

ESPN could create two 20 team conferences, dominate content, elevate payouts for the ACCN in which they split profits, which means it's not a cash outlay, and they could nearly double the reach of the ACCN if they picked up the 10 PAC 12 schools and merged them with the ACC.

ACC:

California, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Use the escalator clause for the ACC contract and establish 38 million as the payout for all. Since FOX pays half of the PAC 12 contract now, the total cost to ESPN would be 190 million for the PAC move. For the 4 ACC schools moving to the SEC the total cost would be 37 million each or 154 million.

The SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia

ESPN creates two 20 member Power Conferences which suck the oxygen out of further realignment.

The Big 12 expands from the Moutain West and AAC to create the 4th Conference.

The Big 10 and FOX have no place to go and stay at 16.

The ACC increases its total revenue by adding the in state subscription rate for the ACCN to Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. They only lose South Carolina's 5 million from the footprint in this move.

They essentially get the PAC 12 for what their full rate is now. They increase inventory which reduces cost, they make interest in the ACC national which reduces cost via advertising, and the ACC and PAC share an academic standing which is strong but not exclusive like the Big 10's.

ESPN for what likely would wind up being a total cash outlay of 150 million after the value of added inventory, enhanced markets, and in the SEC enhanced content vs content games are subtracted, and the added market reach of each subscription network (ACCN & SECN) are subtracted would be the cheapest dominance ESPN could possibly buy.

They would control 40 schools plus 1 and half of the Big 12 when it came time for votes on the postseason and the possible new hoops tourney. And considering their haul of the expanded playoff would be around 750 million a year 150 million for control, the highest volume of content, and tremendous reach and branding would seem to be a no brainer.

The split East and West Coast divisions provide plenty of local play for non revenue sports and revenue sports and cuts the number of cross country games way down.

The SEC dominates the SE for football and the ACC dominates for basketball and the two compliment each other quite well.

Should ESPN pick up Notre Dame's T1 there are ample games for the Irish to play out West, in the Deep South and at home with interesting schedules to stimulate attendance and donations.

I see a lot of potential in this.

It is one way ESPN could essentially end realignment for the foreseeable future.

Twenty may indeed be the goal.
Most expansions take place two schools at a time, so the timing may just work out with the 5 year GOR that the Big 12 schools have signed.

It appears that the SEC may help in the dismantling of the PAC and absorb a couple of PAC schools, before turning to the Big 12 to get to 20.

It appears as if the SEC may expand, first with the pair of Arizona State and Colorado and then perhaps adding Kansas and Texas Tech.

Speculation....of course, but with the migration patterns in today's world it's a way to insure the SEC and ESPN with they need into the future.

Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Texas Tech, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU
Ole Miss, MSU, Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt
Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 08:02 AM)bullet Wrote:  The interesting thing about the latest SEC deal is the former CBS "game of the week" is worth as much as the rest of the non-SEC network games combined. There is double 2 million viewers.

ESPN paid an arm and a leg to wrangle that game away from CBS, but it did help the SEC to stay competitive with the B1G and keep the conference from getting wandering eyes.

ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee


Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

You don't think they'll be backlash like there was for the European Super League in 2021?

(06-13-2023 06:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  Essentially, with a ten team western division and a ten team eastern division, this new entity could for all practical purposes be two conferences sharing a common network and a common administration. What it wouldn't do, which these two now enjoy as separate conferences, is guarantee both of them a berth in an expanded CFP.

I would suggest that the CFP could go to 16 teams, with each of the P4 guaranteed two bids designated by the conferences, with the rest of the field selected at-large by a committee. This would probably require that CCG's be eliminated, so there would need to be a way to divide the CFP revenue in a way that ensures that the P4 conferences be made whole for giving up their exclusive tournament.

But why not go to 32 or 64? More is always more on this board.

TCU was certainly a top 4 team last year and lost by 70 points. Why do people want to see more matchups like this in the future. Imagine 12 beats 5 and plays #1 and loses by 100. How is that good for TV or the sport?

6-9 teams should be the max with G5 playing a mini-tournament or at least a play-in game right before playing #1.

(07-18-2023 12:33 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 08:02 AM)bullet Wrote:  The interesting thing about the latest SEC deal is the former CBS "game of the week" is worth as much as the rest of the non-SEC network games combined. There is double 2 million viewers.

ESPN paid an arm and a leg to wrangle that game away from CBS, but it did help the SEC to stay competitive with the B1G and keep the conference from getting wandering eyes.

ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee


Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

You don't think they'll be backlash like there was for the European Super League in 2021?

Not if anyone has any sense. Why is it happening is the question. The answer is because it is no longer supported with high school athletes with a high level of quality and in ample supply out West and in the Northern Midwest and along the Atlantic Coast north of North Carolina. A coalescing into one super conference is more of a statement on the current quality of athletics within our society as a part of a balanced growth of our youth than it is anything else.

Mind, Body, Spirit and the development of a balance between those was one a goal of education. Cultural morality has changed, and that isn't getting into the religious aspect of morality, I'm talking traditional mores which have been abandoned has impacted the nation. The lack of emphasis on the development of the body in schools which has happened over the last 50 years where PE was restricted due to a lot of factors from the social activity of students at school to liability, to violence on school grounds and drugs. Toss in computers, cell phones, and junk food and you get there. And now the traditional courses feeding into STEM for college students are lacking in too many school systems. The breakdown of discipline, and now a cultural influence not to have it, have all led with the other factors I mentioned to malaise for college sports. Now there are still plenty of athletes seeking to play, but the overall quality, the coachability, the drive to win are damaged and have been replaced with the desire for fame and money, which have always been a part, and rightfully in some ways has now been emphasized so that the athlete can earn from what they do rather than just the school or the NCAA. But all of it pieced together means we have fewer regions in the country were there is a cultural emphasis on high school athletics. That means fewer potential recruits, and certainly a dearth of well developed recruits in terms of physical training, and fundamental instruction. We've been headed to the smaller and smaller grouping of competitive athletics for 40 years now.

The issue isn't that the top schools are greedy, even though that's there. The issue is an overall decline in the stressing and desire to play athletics. We've grown fat, dumb, and lazy as a society and we want our kids to go where they get approval, not instruction and discipline. So, we have expensive niche sports leagues for junior and sis. It works a bit for baseball and soccer, not so much for basketball and football. At least basketball is voluntarily played in the streets.

I'd say where we are headed is a huge canary in the coal mine for the health of the United States, and the bird is about dead.

(07-18-2023 12:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-18-2023 12:33 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 08:02 AM)bullet Wrote:  The interesting thing about the latest SEC deal is the former CBS "game of the week" is worth as much as the rest of the non-SEC network games combined. There is double 2 million viewers.

ESPN paid an arm and a leg to wrangle that game away from CBS, but it did help the SEC to stay competitive with the B1G and keep the conference from getting wandering eyes.

ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee


Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

You don't think they'll be backlash like there was for the European Super League in 2021?

Not if anyone has any sense. Why is it happening is the question. The answer is because it is no longer supported with high school athletes with a high level of quality and in ample supply out West and in the Northern Midwest and along the Atlantic Coast north of North Carolina. A coalescing into one super conference is more of a statement on the current quality of athletics within our society as a part of a balanced growth of our youth than it is anything else.

Mind, Body, Spirit and the development of a balance between those was one a goal of education. Cultural morality has changed, and that isn't getting into the religious aspect of morality, I'm talking traditional mores which have been abandoned has impacted the nation. The lack of emphasis on the development of the body in schools which has happened over the last 50 years where PE was restricted due to a lot of factors from the social activity of students at school to liability, to violence on school grounds and drugs. Toss in computers, cell phones, and junk food and you get there. And now the traditional courses feeding into STEM for college students are lacking in too many school systems. The breakdown of discipline, and now a cultural influence not to have it, have all led with the other factors I mentioned to malaise for college sports. Now there are still plenty of athletes seeking to play, but the overall quality, the coachability, the drive to win are damaged and have been replaced with the desire for fame and money, which have always been a part, and rightfully in some ways has now been emphasized so that the athlete can earn from what they do rather than just the school or the NCAA. But all of it pieced together means we have fewer regions in the country were there is a cultural emphasis on high school athletics. That means fewer potential recruits, and certainly a dearth of well developed recruits in terms of physical training, and fundamental instruction. We've been headed to the smaller and smaller grouping of competitive athletics for 40 years now.

The issue isn't that the top schools are greedy, even though that's there. The issue is an overall decline in the stressing and desire to play athletics. We've grown fat, dumb, and lazy as a society and we want our kids to go where they get approval, not instruction and discipline. So, we have expensive niche sports leagues for junior and sis. It works a bit for baseball and soccer, not so much for basketball and football. At least basketball is voluntarily played in the streets.

I'd say where we are headed is a huge canary in the coal mine for the health of the United States, and the bird is about dead.

Amen, Brother JR. Amen.

(06-12-2023 01:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  PAC 12 revenue payouts for 2022 were 37 million.

ACC revenue payouts for 2022 were 37.9 million plus bowl and playoff money and tourney creds.

The SEC payouts were 49.9 but will jump closer to 75 by 2024.

What are the Options?

ESPN could move 4 ACC schools to the SEC and create a 20 team conference.

Let's assume that the schools most anxious to make more are Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina. Or that they are Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia.

In either case the ACC is reduced to 10 full member schools and Notre Dame as a partial.

Notre Dame requires games in Georgia, Florida, and might like them in Louisiana and Texas.

ESPN knows it needs late night games and preferably games with decent content.

ESPN could create two 20 team conferences, dominate content, elevate payouts for the ACCN in which they split profits, which means it's not a cash outlay, and they could nearly double the reach of the ACCN if they picked up the 10 PAC 12 schools and merged them with the ACC.

ACC:

California, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Use the escalator clause for the ACC contract and establish 38 million as the payout for all. Since FOX pays half of the PAC 12 contract now, the total cost to ESPN would be 190 million for the PAC move. For the 4 ACC schools moving to the SEC the total cost would be 37 million each or 154 million.

The SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia

ESPN creates two 20 member Power Conferences which suck the oxygen out of further realignment.

The Big 12 expands from the Moutain West and AAC to create the 4th Conference.

The Big 10 and FOX have no place to go and stay at 16.

The ACC increases its total revenue by adding the in state subscription rate for the ACCN to Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. They only lose South Carolina's 5 million from the footprint in this move.

They essentially get the PAC 12 for what their full rate is now. They increase inventory which reduces cost, they make interest in the ACC national which reduces cost via advertising, and the ACC and PAC share an academic standing which is strong but not exclusive like the Big 10's.

ESPN for what likely would wind up being a total cash outlay of 150 million after the value of added inventory, enhanced markets, and in the SEC enhanced content vs content games are subtracted, and the added market reach of each subscription network (ACCN & SECN) are subtracted would be the cheapest dominance ESPN could possibly buy.

They would control 40 schools plus 1 and half of the Big 12 when it came time for votes on the postseason and the possible new hoops tourney. And considering their haul of the expanded playoff would be around 750 million a year 150 million for control, the highest volume of content, and tremendous reach and branding would seem to be a no brainer.

The split East and West Coast divisions provide plenty of local play for non revenue sports and revenue sports and cuts the number of cross country games way down.

The SEC dominates the SE for football and the ACC dominates for basketball and the two compliment each other quite well.

Should ESPN pick up Notre Dame's T1 there are ample games for the Irish to play out West, in the Deep South and at home with interesting schedules to stimulate attendance and donations.

I see a lot of potential in this.

It is one way ESPN could essentially end realignment for the foreseeable future.

I think it is now clear that the PAC as we know it is a dead man walking. It's also clear that the Big Ten and SEC are, and will always be, head and shoulders above every other conference. What may not be clear to those two, and to the media, is that college sports will be a better and more valuable product if neither of them "wins" in realignment and comes to dominate the other. Rather, the best outcome is for both of them to be more or less equal in both resources and on field strength.

A different solution IMO is for the PAC 12 to be split in half, with the Big Ten taking USCLA, OU, UW, Cal and Stanford, and the remaining six schools moving to the Big 12. At the same time, ESPN should find a way to move Clemson, FSU, UNC and Virginia to the SEC taking them also to 20 members.

That leaves the Big 12 and ACC very unbalanced, with the ACC significantly weakened. The Big 12 would have 18 members, and the ACC 10. My recommendation would be to broker a deal where new B12 members Cincinnati and UCF move to the ACC leaving the B12 at 16, and UConn and UCF are also added to the ACC to take them back to 14.

Now, all four conferences achieve as much internal geographic, cultural, academic and athletic compatibility as is possible in the world of college athletics. At the end of the day, no school that was part of an AQ conference during the BCS era would be left behind.

To accomplish this, I believe, would require that both the B1G and SEC do something that nobody believes they will ever do. That is, settle for less money per school than they might get by continuing the realignment arms race. Whether they do this or not, they will always have an insurmountable financial advantage over all other FBS conferences. The question is, would it really make a difference if their revenue advantage were only $40 million per school instead of $50 million? Is there not some benefit to them in having enough teams in other conferences with the resources to be somewhat competitive, even if they can't realistically hope to field a national champion?

Now, when they are all about to get a huge raise in revenue, would be a good time for the two giants to share some of that good fortune with schools that help both of them achieve important strategic, long-term goals. Waiting for the ACC GoR to expire, or hoping to acquire new product on the cheap by waiting a couple of years, would mean this opportunity is lost, IMO. If there are any statesmen left in college athletics, they need to step up now.

My new 20 team SEC (listed in order of their 10 year average football strength rank), with 4 annual conference opponents and an annual OOC opponent, if any.

Alabama (1): Auburn, Mississippi St, Florida St, Tennessee, Notre Dame
Clemson (3): South Carolina, Georgia, UNC, Florida St
Georgia (4): Florida, Auburn, Clemson, Virginia, Georgia Tech
Oklahoma (5): Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma St
LSU (6): Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Oklahoma
Florida St (13): Mississippi St, Florida, Alabama, Clemson, Miami
Auburn (14): Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi St
Texas A&M (16): LSU, Texas, Florida, Ole Miss
Florida (22): Georgia, Florida St, Texas A&M, Kentucky
Mississippi St (23): Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida St, Auburn
Texas (27): Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Notre Dame
Ole Miss (28): Mississippi St, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M
Tennessee (29): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Alabama
South Carolina (32): Clemson, Virginia, UNC, Tennessee
Missouri (35): Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Vanderbilt, Kansas
UNC (45): Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Duke
Arkansas (51): Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU
Kentucky (52): Tennessee, UNC, Vanderbilt, Florida, Louisville
Vanderbilt (69): Kentucky, Virginia, South Carolina, Missouri
Virginia (76): UNC, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Virginia Tech

(08-04-2023 09:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-12-2023 01:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  PAC 12 revenue payouts for 2022 were 37 million.

ACC revenue payouts for 2022 were 37.9 million plus bowl and playoff money and tourney creds.

The SEC payouts were 49.9 but will jump closer to 75 by 2024.

What are the Options?

ESPN could move 4 ACC schools to the SEC and create a 20 team conference.

Let's assume that the schools most anxious to make more are Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina. Or that they are Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia.

In either case the ACC is reduced to 10 full member schools and Notre Dame as a partial.

Notre Dame requires games in Georgia, Florida, and might like them in Louisiana and Texas.

ESPN knows it needs late night games and preferably games with decent content.

ESPN could create two 20 team conferences, dominate content, elevate payouts for the ACCN in which they split profits, which means it's not a cash outlay, and they could nearly double the reach of the ACCN if they picked up the 10 PAC 12 schools and merged them with the ACC.

ACC:

California, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Use the escalator clause for the ACC contract and establish 38 million as the payout for all. Since FOX pays half of the PAC 12 contract now, the total cost to ESPN would be 190 million for the PAC move. For the 4 ACC schools moving to the SEC the total cost would be 37 million each or 154 million.

The SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia

ESPN creates two 20 member Power Conferences which suck the oxygen out of further realignment.

The Big 12 expands from the Moutain West and AAC to create the 4th Conference.

The Big 10 and FOX have no place to go and stay at 16.

The ACC increases its total revenue by adding the in state subscription rate for the ACCN to Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. They only lose South Carolina's 5 million from the footprint in this move.

They essentially get the PAC 12 for what their full rate is now. They increase inventory which reduces cost, they make interest in the ACC national which reduces cost via advertising, and the ACC and PAC share an academic standing which is strong but not exclusive like the Big 10's.

ESPN for what likely would wind up being a total cash outlay of 150 million after the value of added inventory, enhanced markets, and in the SEC enhanced content vs content games are subtracted, and the added market reach of each subscription network (ACCN & SECN) are subtracted would be the cheapest dominance ESPN could possibly buy.

They would control 40 schools plus 1 and half of the Big 12 when it came time for votes on the postseason and the possible new hoops tourney. And considering their haul of the expanded playoff would be around 750 million a year 150 million for control, the highest volume of content, and tremendous reach and branding would seem to be a no brainer.

The split East and West Coast divisions provide plenty of local play for non revenue sports and revenue sports and cuts the number of cross country games way down.

The SEC dominates the SE for football and the ACC dominates for basketball and the two compliment each other quite well.

Should ESPN pick up Notre Dame's T1 there are ample games for the Irish to play out West, in the Deep South and at home with interesting schedules to stimulate attendance and donations.

I see a lot of potential in this.

It is one way ESPN could essentially end realignment for the foreseeable future.

I think it is now clear that the PAC as we know it is a dead man walking. It's also clear that the Big Ten and SEC are, and will always be, head and shoulders above every other conference. What may not be clear to those two, and to the media, is that college sports will be a better and more valuable product if neither of them "wins" in realignment and comes to dominate the other. Rather, the best outcome is for both of them to be more or less equal in both resources and on field strength.

A different solution IMO is for the PAC 12 to be split in half, with the Big Ten taking USCLA, OU, UW, Cal and Stanford, and the remaining six schools moving to the Big 12. At the same time, ESPN should find a way to move Clemson, FSU, UNC and Virginia to the SEC taking them also to 20 members.

That leaves the Big 12 and ACC very unbalanced, with the ACC significantly weakened. The Big 12 would have 18 members, and the ACC 10. My recommendation would be to broker a deal where new B12 members Cincinnati and UCF move to the ACC leaving the B12 at 16, and UConn and UCF are also added to the ACC to take them back to 14.

Now, all four conferences achieve as much internal geographic, cultural, academic and athletic compatibility as is possible in the world of college athletics. At the end of the day, no school that was part of an AQ conference during the BCS era would be left behind.

To accomplish this, I believe, would require that both the B1G and SEC do something that nobody believes they will ever do. That is, settle for less money per school than they might get by continuing the realignment arms race. Whether they do this or not, they will always have an insurmountable financial advantage over all other FBS conferences. The question is, would it really make a difference if their revenue advantage were only $40 million per school instead of $50 million? Is there not some benefit to them in having enough teams in other conferences with the resources to be somewhat competitive, even if they can't realistically hope to field a national champion?

Now, when they are all about to get a huge raise in revenue, would be a good time for the two giants to share some of that good fortune with schools that help both of them achieve important strategic, long-term goals. Waiting for the ACC GoR to expire, or hoping to acquire new product on the cheap by waiting a couple of years, would mean this opportunity is lost, IMO. If there are any statesmen left in college athletics, they need to step up now.

WVU says,"C'mon man."