Well, realignment was over the day that Texas and Oklahoma decided to go to the SEC together, and not in the favor of ESPN.

It's not sure what happened. Did Texas get nervous about going to the ACC without Notre Dame? Did Oklahoma fear going to the SEC without a true friend? Was it ESPN that just got greedy?

When that move was made the world of conference realignment changed.

It was no longer possible to have equal distribution of talent/blue blood football programs divided over four or 5 conferences. The B1G saw it as a direct assault on their conference, which led them to go ahead and destroy the PAC by inviting USC and UCLA. Probably even more importantly the B1G severed relationships with ESPN, so that the mouse would no longer be able to broadcast B1G events.

In the mean time, in a panic, ESPN agreed to continue a partnership with FOX to prop up the failed Big 12 conference so that the mouse would have additional inventory to supplement the loss of the B1G. In doing so ESPN set the ACC adrift.
It seemed that the only way the ACC could garner more money from ESPN was to expand, and the survival of the Big 12 robbed the ACC of the three most likely and compatible expansion candidates available.

Texas should have gone to the ACC as planned. If not with Notre Dame, TCU was an acceptable substitute agreeable to all.
Oklahoma to the SEC was a shoe in, but paired with another Texas school other than the Longhorns must have been a frightening prospect. It should still be frightening even with Texas, because Oklahoma will have a hard time standing toe to toe with the other programs in the SEC west.

The ACC was left to flounder in the wind. Stuck with a lousy TV deal and robbed by TV master of any reasonable way to escape poverty. Now some of the more valuable properties in the ACC are getting scared and are starting to act out. They are mad at the situation created by, pick one: Notre Dame, Texas or ESPN.

The simple solution would be to pay the ACC a little bit more and not rock the boat, but that not ESPN's meddling style. Every time the mouse has made a move, the B1G has made a better one. The overall problem for ESPN is that they have too much territory to protect from B1G intrusion with only one conference and too many schools to support if they use two conferences to completely keep the B1G out of the South.

ESPN allowed the Texas/Oklahoma pair to move together not in accordance with the plan. Then the B1G bested ESPN again with the USC/UCLA add, and the mouse is left to defend it's territory from the B1G getting a platform/recruiting foothold (FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina) while at the same time having to support Wake Forest and Boston College.

So far ESPN's track record is not good at solving problems. We'll see whether they chose to pay the ACC or destroy it with the hope of salvaging their own fiefdom.

(03-05-2023 08:58 AM)XLance Wrote:  Well, realignment was over the day that Texas and Oklahoma decided to go to the SEC ...

Not even close to being done. Once the dust settles on the PAC (likely soon or in six years) and ACC (likely no later than 2036), there may be a long pause, though.

(03-05-2023 08:58 AM)XLance Wrote:  Well, realignment was over the day that Texas and Oklahoma decided to go to the SEC together, and not in the favor of ESPN.

It's not sure what happened. Did Texas get nervous about going to the ACC without Notre Dame? Did Oklahoma fear going to the SEC without a true friend? Was it ESPN that just got greedy?

When that move was made the world of conference realignment changed.

It was no longer possible to have equal distribution of talent/blue blood football programs divided over four or 5 conferences. The B1G saw it as a direct assault on their conference, which led them to go ahead and destroy the PAC by inviting USC and UCLA. Probably even more importantly the B1G severed relationships with ESPN, so that the mouse would no longer be able to broadcast B1G events.

In the mean time, in a panic, ESPN agreed to continue a partnership with FOX to prop up the failed Big 12 conference so that the mouse would have additional inventory to supplement the loss of the B1G. In doing so ESPN set the ACC adrift.
It seemed that the only way the ACC could garner more money from ESPN was to expand, and the survival of the Big 12 robbed the ACC of the three most likely and compatible expansion candidates available.

Texas should have gone to the ACC as planned. If not with Notre Dame, TCU was an acceptable substitute agreeable to all.
Oklahoma to the SEC was a shoe in, but paired with another Texas school other than the Longhorns must have been a frightening prospect. It should still be frightening even with Texas, because Oklahoma will have a hard time standing toe to toe with the other programs in the SEC west.

The ACC was left to flounder in the wind. Stuck with a lousy TV deal and robbed by TV master of any reasonable way to escape poverty. Now some of the more valuable properties in the ACC are getting scared and are starting to act out. They are mad at the situation created by, pick one: Notre Dame, Texas or ESPN.

The simple solution would be to pay the ACC a little bit more and not rock the boat, but that not ESPN's meddling style. Every time the mouse has made a move, the B1G has made a better one. The overall problem for ESPN is that they have too much territory to protect from B1G intrusion with only one conference and too many schools to support if they use two conferences to completely keep the B1G out of the South.

ESPN allowed the Texas/Oklahoma pair to move together not in accordance with the plan. Then the B1G bested ESPN again with the USC/UCLA add, and the mouse is left to defend it's territory from the B1G getting a platform/recruiting foothold (FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina) while at the same time having to support Wake Forest and Boston College.

So far ESPN's track record is not good at solving problems. We'll see whether they chose to pay the ACC or destroy it with the hope of salvaging their own fiefdom.

I am sorry, but this is a somewhat whiny, blame everyone but yourself post.

"Oh, woe is me"....says the ACC ? (The Big East says hello)

The problems with the ACC were caused by the ACC itself, including its leading schools like North Carolina, not Texas, ND or even ESPN.

Who signed the deals with ESPN? Did it put a gun to the ACC's head to do so?

Could the ACC have said "No" to ESPN and shopped their deal on the market instead?

Could it have expanded earlier with WVU and Cincy, for instance?

Blaming others for your own Tobacco Road country club bad decisions is not a good look.


P.S. Can you provide any evidence that Texas was going to join the ACC ("planned" and "as it should", were your quotes) ??

The mistake was not consolidating south earlier. Now they have a big east/ACC deadweight that makes protecting the prize brands more expensive

Not all is lost for ESPN.

Solution 1.)
Consolidate valuable South assets into SEC before they hit free agency, moving the mistake leftovers to the P5 dump they just created with Fox, thereby shedding some of the “P3” filler inventory costs to Fox or streamers. Say 4-6 ACC to SEC, but maybe 1 or 2 allowed to go BIG, and rest to Big 12. With getting out of anything above $20 million on as many as 8 schools, plus expanding the ACC Network to Texas, AZ, OK, KS, parts of Ohio, Utah, CO etc


Solution 2.)
Exploit UNC’s ego and lack of self awareness to get UNC to go down with the ship. Convince UNC you’ll build them a P3 basketball centric conference, if they wield their influence to allow 2- 4 football schools to go to SEC. Add 4C, KU, Cincinnati, TCU,Houston, UCF, Baylor, WVU, Ok St etc to ACC minus FSU, Clemson, VT, ? Much harder to do this now, than in 2021. This should have bern pursued bin connection with talking to UT and OU in 2021. Risk of ND bailing to BIG is an issue

Solution 3.)
LHN 2.0 …Pay ACC football schools more, with ACC moving to unequal revenue sharing. But why spend more and get little long term macro benefits? Free agency still looming. If paying more for ACC football schools, might as well have it be when their games make you more when under SEC brand and schedule.

Imo the cheapest option is now #1. Needing to add a school or two more than you otherwise would is a relatively small transaction cost, particularly if unequal revenue sharing is utilized

(03-05-2023 08:58 AM)XLance Wrote:  The simple solution would be to pay the ACC a little bit more and not rock the boat, but that not ESPN's meddling style. Every time the mouse has made a move, the B1G has made a better one. The overall problem for ESPN is that they have too much territory to protect from B1G intrusion with only one conference and too many schools to support if they use two conferences to completely keep the B1G out of the South.

Bill Walton would like to know who your supplier is...

(03-05-2023 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The mistake was not consolidating south earlier. Now they have a big east/ACC deadweight that makes protecting the prize brands more expensive

Not all is lost for ESPN.

Solution 1.)
Consolidate valuable South assets into SEC before they hit free agency, moving the mistake leftovers to the P5 dump they just created with Fox, thereby shedding some of the “P3” filler inventory costs to Fox or streamers. Say 4-6 ACC to SEC, but maybe 1 or 2 allowed to go BIG, and rest to Big 12. With getting out of anything above $20 million on as many as 8 schools, plus expanding the ACC Network to Texas, AZ, OK, KS, parts of Ohio, Utah, CO etc


Solution 2.)
Exploit UNC’s ego and lack of self awareness to get UNC to go down with the ship. Convince UNC you’ll build them a P3 basketball centric conference, if they wield their influence to allow 2- 4 football schools to go to SEC. Add 4C, KU, Cincinnati, TCU,Houston, UCF, Baylor, WVU, Ok St etc to ACC minus FSU, Clemson, VT, ? Much harder to do this now, than in 2021. This should have bern pursued bin connection with talking to UT and OU in 2021. Risk of ND bailing to BIG is an issue

Solution 3.)
LHN 2.0 …Pay ACC football schools more, with ACC moving to unequal revenue sharing. But why spend more and get little long term macro benefits? Free agency still looming. If paying more for ACC football schools, might as well have it be when their games make you more when under SEC brand and schedule.

Imo the cheapest option is now #1. Needing to add a school or two more than you otherwise would is a relatively small transaction cost, particularly if unequal revenue sharing is utilized

If ND wants its freedom from the ACC let them take Duke with them to the Big 10. The Big 10 has plenty of targets left, especially if unequal revenue sharing enters the mix in terms of realignment.

The Big 10 could look like this:
Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The SEC could look like this:
Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M.

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest to the Big 12.

**************************************************************

Now to X, if you had accepted the deal in 2011-2, Maryland wouldn't have left, Texas and 3 more I've mentioned before would have been in the ACC, Louisville would not be with you, but in the Big 12, and you would not be in this jam. But you counted votes if N.C. State and Virginia Tech had gone to the SEC and you didn't have enough to maintain control. UNC and buds stopped the ACC's chances at successful realignment in 2011 to maintain control and in the process you ticked off Texas, ticked off ESPN, ticked off Florida State and Clemson, and sewed the discord in which now exist. You would have kept Maryland and had the ACCN in 2013. And since it never happened and will not be talked about officially it is only alleged and as the men in black say, your don't remember anything and this never happened.

That said a meeting of the SEC with an ACC's school representatives did happen at the Greenbriar in West Virginia, the SEC offices promoted the hell out of N.C. State and Va Tech to the SEC via Clay Travis a then blogger and Mr. SEC John Pennington who had his own site dedicated to the subject. And ESPN would not have simply bought the ACC off on the ACCN with 2 million per school a year if they weren't pissed about something. And the good will of the Mouse kind of dried up after that big whiff that never was. But it did result in one thing. A paranoid FOX wanted a GOR for the Big 12 and paranoid ACC wanted the same.

That's a lot of gyrations over nothing.

(03-05-2023 05:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The mistake was not consolidating south earlier. Now they have a big east/ACC deadweight that makes protecting the prize brands more expensive

Not all is lost for ESPN.

Solution 1.)
Consolidate valuable South assets into SEC before they hit free agency, moving the mistake leftovers to the P5 dump they just created with Fox, thereby shedding some of the “P3” filler inventory costs to Fox or streamers. Say 4-6 ACC to SEC, but maybe 1 or 2 allowed to go BIG, and rest to Big 12. With getting out of anything above $20 million on as many as 8 schools, plus expanding the ACC Network to Texas, AZ, OK, KS, parts of Ohio, Utah, CO etc

If ND wants its freedom from the ACC let them take Duke with them to the Big 10. The Big 10 has plenty of targets left, especially if unequal revenue sharing enters the mix in terms of realignment.

The Big 10 could look like this:
Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The SEC could look like this:
Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M.

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest to the Big 12

Something like that, although I wonder if 1-2 of those ACC schools don’t make it in as transaction costs.

They may, given the middle tier of ACC will be the most likely to want to ride out GOR if no P2 offer, and unequal revenue sharing an east solution. My guess it starts off as temporary to buy “into” P2, and just never gets fully removed if next TV deal doesn’t escalate sufficiently. But with only a P2.5, the SEC and BIG would have gotten the networks to create a seller’s market, so perhaps the next jump is large enough to hide the costs of the GTs, Cal, NC ST types

(03-05-2023 05:42 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 05:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The mistake was not consolidating south earlier. Now they have a big east/ACC deadweight that makes protecting the prize brands more expensive

Not all is lost for ESPN.

Solution 1.)
Consolidate valuable South assets into SEC before they hit free agency, moving the mistake leftovers to the P5 dump they just created with Fox, thereby shedding some of the “P3” filler inventory costs to Fox or streamers. Say 4-6 ACC to SEC, but maybe 1 or 2 allowed to go BIG, and rest to Big 12. With getting out of anything above $20 million on as many as 8 schools, plus expanding the ACC Network to Texas, AZ, OK, KS, parts of Ohio, Utah, CO etc

If ND wants its freedom from the ACC let them take Duke with them to the Big 10. The Big 10 has plenty of targets left, especially if unequal revenue sharing enters the mix in terms of realignment.

The Big 10 could look like this:
Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The SEC could look like this:
Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M.

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest to the Big 12

Something like that, although I wonder if 1-2 of those ACC schools don’t make it in as transaction costs.

They may, given the middle tier of ACC will be the most likely to want to ride out GOR if no P2 offer, and unequal revenue sharing an east solution. My guess it starts off as temporary to buy “into” P2, and just never gets fully removed if next TV deal doesn’t escalate sufficiently. But with only a P2.5, the SEC and BIG would have gotten the networks to create a seller’s market, so perhaps the next jump is large enough to hide the costs of the GTs, Cal, NC ST types

That's why I told Frank all the SEC was waiting on or needed was for the Big 10 to take PAC schools at below the current payout to Big 10 members. It cracks the door for schools who know they have less to offer to find an acceptable way to fit in. Perhaps they deliver on academics or markets or just enthusiasm and close proximity. In Ga Tech's case delivering virtually all of Atlanta with Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina Tennessee and Clemson would be quite a boost, plus the product of the SEC would once again be a staple for Atlanta.

I think if some PAC schools accept half (which is still a nice raise for them), options open up everywhere.

And I failed to mention, the need to keep some rivalries together is an issue which the networks could embrace with this lesser share entry.

(03-05-2023 05:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 05:42 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 05:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The mistake was not consolidating south earlier. Now they have a big east/ACC deadweight that makes protecting the prize brands more expensive

Not all is lost for ESPN.

Solution 1.)
Consolidate valuable South assets into SEC before they hit free agency, moving the mistake leftovers to the P5 dump they just created with Fox, thereby shedding some of the “P3” filler inventory costs to Fox or streamers. Say 4-6 ACC to SEC, but maybe 1 or 2 allowed to go BIG, and rest to Big 12. With getting out of anything above $20 million on as many as 8 schools, plus expanding the ACC Network to Texas, AZ, OK, KS, parts of Ohio, Utah, CO etc

If ND wants its freedom from the ACC let them take Duke with them to the Big 10. The Big 10 has plenty of targets left, especially if unequal revenue sharing enters the mix in terms of realignment.

The Big 10 could look like this:
Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The SEC could look like this:
Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M.

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest to the Big 12

Something like that, although I wonder if 1-2 of those ACC schools don’t make it in as transaction costs.

They may, given the middle tier of ACC will be the most likely to want to ride out GOR if no P2 offer, and unequal revenue sharing an east solution. My guess it starts off as temporary to buy “into” P2, and just never gets fully removed if next TV deal doesn’t escalate sufficiently. But with only a P2.5, the SEC and BIG would have gotten the networks to create a seller’s market, so perhaps the next jump is large enough to hide the costs of the GTs, Cal, NC ST types

That's why I told Frank all the SEC was waiting on or needed was for the Big 10 to take PAC schools at below the current payout to Big 10 members. It cracks the door for schools who know they have less to offer to find an acceptable way to fit in. Perhaps they deliver on academics or markets or just enthusiasm and close proximity. In Ga Tech's case delivering virtually all of Atlanta with Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina Tennessee and Clemson would be quite a boost, plus the product of the SEC would once again be a staple for Atlanta.

I think if some PAC schools accept half (which is still a nice raise for them), options open up everywhere.

And I failed to mention, the need to keep some rivalries together is an issue which the networks could embrace with this lesser share entry.

The fact the BIG didn’t act decisively and use huge jump in the premium CFB market to hide Stanford/UW hit surprised me. Save the ND bump to cover 2-3 more

Granted, they still would know they lowered their “raise” with Stanford and UW, but I would have guessed all but 2-3 Presidents seeing value in having certainty that the conference was avoiding the pandora’s box of unequal revenue sharing

Then again, USC/UCLA came from the sell side, and the BIG even now seems to still be figuring out what to do after this gift from Fox

(03-05-2023 05:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The mistake was not consolidating south earlier. Now they have a big east/ACC deadweight that makes protecting the prize brands more expensive

Not all is lost for ESPN.

Solution 1.)
Consolidate valuable South assets into SEC before they hit free agency, moving the mistake leftovers to the P5 dump they just created with Fox, thereby shedding some of the “P3” filler inventory costs to Fox or streamers. Say 4-6 ACC to SEC, but maybe 1 or 2 allowed to go BIG, and rest to Big 12. With getting out of anything above $20 million on as many as 8 schools, plus expanding the ACC Network to Texas, AZ, OK, KS, parts of Ohio, Utah, CO etc


Solution 2.)
Exploit UNC’s ego and lack of self awareness to get UNC to go down with the ship. Convince UNC you’ll build them a P3 basketball centric conference, if they wield their influence to allow 2- 4 football schools to go to SEC. Add 4C, KU, Cincinnati, TCU,Houston, UCF, Baylor, WVU, Ok St etc to ACC minus FSU, Clemson, VT, ? Much harder to do this now, than in 2021. This should have bern pursued bin connection with talking to UT and OU in 2021. Risk of ND bailing to BIG is an issue

Solution 3.)
LHN 2.0 …Pay ACC football schools more, with ACC moving to unequal revenue sharing. But why spend more and get little long term macro benefits? Free agency still looming. If paying more for ACC football schools, might as well have it be when their games make you more when under SEC brand and schedule.

Imo the cheapest option is now #1. Needing to add a school or two more than you otherwise would is a relatively small transaction cost, particularly if unequal revenue sharing is utilized

If ND wants its freedom from the ACC let them take Duke with them to the Big 10. The Big 10 has plenty of targets left, especially if unequal revenue sharing enters the mix in terms of realignment.

The Big 10 could look like this:
Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The SEC could look like this:
Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M.

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest to the Big 12.

**************************************************************

Now to X, if you had accepted the deal in 2011-2, Maryland wouldn't have left, Texas and 3 more I've mentioned before would have been in the ACC, Louisville would not be with you, but in the Big 12, and you would not be in this jam. But you counted votes if N.C. State and Virginia Tech had gone to the SEC and you didn't have enough to maintain control. UNC and buds stopped the ACC's chances at successful realignment in 2011 to maintain control and in the process you ticked off Texas, ticked off ESPN, ticked off Florida State and Clemson, and sewed the discord in which now exist. You would have kept Maryland and had the ACCN in 2013. And since it never happened and will not be talked about officially it is only alleged and as the men in black say, your don't remember anything and this never happened.

That said a meeting of the SEC with an ACC's school representatives did happen at the Greenbriar in West Virginia, the SEC offices promoted the hell out of N.C. State and Va Tech to the SEC via Clay Travis a then blogger and Mr. SEC John Pennington who had his own site dedicated to the subject. And ESPN would not have simply bought the ACC off on the ACCN with 2 million per school a year if they weren't pissed about something. And the good will of the Mouse kind of dried up after that big whiff that never was. But it did result in one thing. A paranoid FOX wanted a GOR for the Big 12 and paranoid ACC wanted the same.

That's a lot of gyrations over nothing.

Duke wants freedom from the ACC? That's crazy talk.
Duke's franchise is too valuable to leave. There was a report last week that Duke had set their tuition rate for next fall's incoming freshmen ($82,000).

Here’s the thing about the ACC-ESPN:

ESPN wrecked the Big East twice to the benefit of the ACC. They should have known that ESPN wouldn’t hesitate to wreck the ACC to help another one of their investments (SEC).

ESPN’s in a win/win. They either get the ACC at a bargain for another 12 years or they bankroll the endeavor to peel off the best brands now.

(03-05-2023 07:37 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 05:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The mistake was not consolidating south earlier. Now they have a big east/ACC deadweight that makes protecting the prize brands more expensive

Not all is lost for ESPN.

Solution 1.)
Consolidate valuable South assets into SEC before they hit free agency, moving the mistake leftovers to the P5 dump they just created with Fox, thereby shedding some of the “P3” filler inventory costs to Fox or streamers. Say 4-6 ACC to SEC, but maybe 1 or 2 allowed to go BIG, and rest to Big 12. With getting out of anything above $20 million on as many as 8 schools, plus expanding the ACC Network to Texas, AZ, OK, KS, parts of Ohio, Utah, CO etc


Solution 2.)
Exploit UNC’s ego and lack of self awareness to get UNC to go down with the ship. Convince UNC you’ll build them a P3 basketball centric conference, if they wield their influence to allow 2- 4 football schools to go to SEC. Add 4C, KU, Cincinnati, TCU,Houston, UCF, Baylor, WVU, Ok St etc to ACC minus FSU, Clemson, VT, ? Much harder to do this now, than in 2021. This should have bern pursued bin connection with talking to UT and OU in 2021. Risk of ND bailing to BIG is an issue

Solution 3.)
LHN 2.0 …Pay ACC football schools more, with ACC moving to unequal revenue sharing. But why spend more and get little long term macro benefits? Free agency still looming. If paying more for ACC football schools, might as well have it be when their games make you more when under SEC brand and schedule.

Imo the cheapest option is now #1. Needing to add a school or two more than you otherwise would is a relatively small transaction cost, particularly if unequal revenue sharing is utilized

If ND wants its freedom from the ACC let them take Duke with them to the Big 10. The Big 10 has plenty of targets left, especially if unequal revenue sharing enters the mix in terms of realignment.

The Big 10 could look like this:
Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The SEC could look like this:
Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M.

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest to the Big 12.

**************************************************************

Now to X, if you had accepted the deal in 2011-2, Maryland wouldn't have left, Texas and 3 more I've mentioned before would have been in the ACC, Louisville would not be with you, but in the Big 12, and you would not be in this jam. But you counted votes if N.C. State and Virginia Tech had gone to the SEC and you didn't have enough to maintain control. UNC and buds stopped the ACC's chances at successful realignment in 2011 to maintain control and in the process you ticked off Texas, ticked off ESPN, ticked off Florida State and Clemson, and sewed the discord in which now exist. You would have kept Maryland and had the ACCN in 2013. And since it never happened and will not be talked about officially it is only alleged and as the men in black say, your don't remember anything and this never happened.

That said a meeting of the SEC with an ACC's school representatives did happen at the Greenbriar in West Virginia, the SEC offices promoted the hell out of N.C. State and Va Tech to the SEC via Clay Travis a then blogger and Mr. SEC John Pennington who had his own site dedicated to the subject. And ESPN would not have simply bought the ACC off on the ACCN with 2 million per school a year if they weren't pissed about something. And the good will of the Mouse kind of dried up after that big whiff that never was. But it did result in one thing. A paranoid FOX wanted a GOR for the Big 12 and paranoid ACC wanted the same.

That's a lot of gyrations over nothing.

Duke wants freedom from the ACC? That's crazy talk.
Duke's franchise is too valuable to leave. There was a report last week that Duke had set their tuition rate for next fall's incoming freshmen ($82,000).

Come on, it clearly says “if ND wants its freedom from ACC”.

(03-05-2023 08:01 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 07:37 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 05:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The mistake was not consolidating south earlier. Now they have a big east/ACC deadweight that makes protecting the prize brands more expensive

Not all is lost for ESPN.

Solution 1.)
Consolidate valuable South assets into SEC before they hit free agency, moving the mistake leftovers to the P5 dump they just created with Fox, thereby shedding some of the “P3” filler inventory costs to Fox or streamers. Say 4-6 ACC to SEC, but maybe 1 or 2 allowed to go BIG, and rest to Big 12. With getting out of anything above $20 million on as many as 8 schools, plus expanding the ACC Network to Texas, AZ, OK, KS, parts of Ohio, Utah, CO etc


Solution 2.)
Exploit UNC’s ego and lack of self awareness to get UNC to go down with the ship. Convince UNC you’ll build them a P3 basketball centric conference, if they wield their influence to allow 2- 4 football schools to go to SEC. Add 4C, KU, Cincinnati, TCU,Houston, UCF, Baylor, WVU, Ok St etc to ACC minus FSU, Clemson, VT, ? Much harder to do this now, than in 2021. This should have bern pursued bin connection with talking to UT and OU in 2021. Risk of ND bailing to BIG is an issue

Solution 3.)
LHN 2.0 …Pay ACC football schools more, with ACC moving to unequal revenue sharing. But why spend more and get little long term macro benefits? Free agency still looming. If paying more for ACC football schools, might as well have it be when their games make you more when under SEC brand and schedule.

Imo the cheapest option is now #1. Needing to add a school or two more than you otherwise would is a relatively small transaction cost, particularly if unequal revenue sharing is utilized

If ND wants its freedom from the ACC let them take Duke with them to the Big 10. The Big 10 has plenty of targets left, especially if unequal revenue sharing enters the mix in terms of realignment.

The Big 10 could look like this:
Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The SEC could look like this:
Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M.

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest to the Big 12.

**************************************************************

Now to X, if you had accepted the deal in 2011-2, Maryland wouldn't have left, Texas and 3 more I've mentioned before would have been in the ACC, Louisville would not be with you, but in the Big 12, and you would not be in this jam. But you counted votes if N.C. State and Virginia Tech had gone to the SEC and you didn't have enough to maintain control. UNC and buds stopped the ACC's chances at successful realignment in 2011 to maintain control and in the process you ticked off Texas, ticked off ESPN, ticked off Florida State and Clemson, and sewed the discord in which now exist. You would have kept Maryland and had the ACCN in 2013. And since it never happened and will not be talked about officially it is only alleged and as the men in black say, your don't remember anything and this never happened.

That said a meeting of the SEC with an ACC's school representatives did happen at the Greenbriar in West Virginia, the SEC offices promoted the hell out of N.C. State and Va Tech to the SEC via Clay Travis a then blogger and Mr. SEC John Pennington who had his own site dedicated to the subject. And ESPN would not have simply bought the ACC off on the ACCN with 2 million per school a year if they weren't pissed about something. And the good will of the Mouse kind of dried up after that big whiff that never was. But it did result in one thing. A paranoid FOX wanted a GOR for the Big 12 and paranoid ACC wanted the same.

That's a lot of gyrations over nothing.

Duke wants freedom from the ACC? That's crazy talk.
Duke's franchise is too valuable to leave. There was a report last week that Duke had set their tuition rate for next fall's incoming freshmen ($82,000).

Come on, it clearly says “if ND wants its freedom from ACC”.

Florida State may want to change conferences for $30 Million, Duke and Notre Dame operate on a different financial level and it would take much more than money to get either to move from their current situations.

(03-05-2023 08:58 AM)XLance Wrote:  Well, realignment was over the day that Texas and Oklahoma decided to go to the SEC together, and not in the favor of ESPN.

It's not sure what happened. Did Texas get nervous about going to the ACC without Notre Dame? Did Oklahoma fear going to the SEC without a true friend? Was it ESPN that just got greedy?

When that move was made the world of conference realignment changed.

It was no longer possible to have equal distribution of talent/blue blood football programs divided over four or 5 conferences. The B1G saw it as a direct assault on their conference, which led them to go ahead and destroy the PAC by inviting USC and UCLA. Probably even more importantly the B1G severed relationships with ESPN, so that the mouse would no longer be able to broadcast B1G events.

In the mean time, in a panic, ESPN agreed to continue a partnership with FOX to prop up the failed Big 12 conference so that the mouse would have additional inventory to supplement the loss of the B1G. In doing so ESPN set the ACC adrift.
It seemed that the only way the ACC could garner more money from ESPN was to expand, and the survival of the Big 12 robbed the ACC of the three most likely and compatible expansion candidates available.

Texas should have gone to the ACC as planned. If not with Notre Dame, TCU was an acceptable substitute agreeable to all.
Oklahoma to the SEC was a shoe in, but paired with another Texas school other than the Longhorns must have been a frightening prospect. It should still be frightening even with Texas, because Oklahoma will have a hard time standing toe to toe with the other programs in the SEC west.

The ACC was left to flounder in the wind. Stuck with a lousy TV deal and robbed by TV master of any reasonable way to escape poverty. Now some of the more valuable properties in the ACC are getting scared and are starting to act out. They are mad at the situation created by, pick one: Notre Dame, Texas or ESPN.

The simple solution would be to pay the ACC a little bit more and not rock the boat, but that not ESPN's meddling style. Every time the mouse has made a move, the B1G has made a better one. The overall problem for ESPN is that they have too much territory to protect from B1G intrusion with only one conference and too many schools to support if they use two conferences to completely keep the B1G out of the South.

ESPN allowed the Texas/Oklahoma pair to move together not in accordance with the plan. Then the B1G bested ESPN again with the USC/UCLA add, and the mouse is left to defend it's territory from the B1G getting a platform/recruiting foothold (FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina) while at the same time having to support Wake Forest and Boston College.

So far ESPN's track record is not good at solving problems. We'll see whether they chose to pay the ACC or destroy it with the hope of salvaging their own fiefdom.

That's not quite how that went down, or the whys of it, but ok, setting that aside...

So first, espn's current limitations are self-done. They wanted the SEC.

Doing so caused them to change what they wanted and/or how much they wanted it.

The SEC is a regional conference. And to a lesser degree, so is the ACC.

And so is the PAC, for that matter.

espn was edged out of the Big10 due to comparative costs, pure and simple. Warren did an NFL-style deal and espn wanted to pay the bargain basement prices they have been for college sports.

Which may very well be part of the stumbling block for the PAC. Apparently you need to be the Big10 to pull off a Big10-style deal.

(Or maybe they need a Warren in their corner - dunno.)

At this point, the best move for espn would be to make the schools they have not-so-unhappy.

The SEC is pretty much squared away due to the new media deal.

Most of the grousing seems to be coming from the ACC, and that, mostly from FSU, Clemson, and possibly ND.

So let the squeaky wheels get the grease. After all, espn does have the SEC media deal.

Facilitate transferring the kids to a new school - I mean, the schools to a new conference.

Allow the ACC to bring in 4 new kids to replace those 2, and use the cover of 4 for 2 to give them all a slight pay bump - which would have the added benefit of quieting ND I think.

Grab 3 of the 4 new kids from the B12 in order to make room for them to take advantage of the PAC situation.

And for the 4th, add UConn, Memphis, or USF - or all 3 making 6 for 18.

And that brings more schools in-house for espn.

And the ACC is stabilized.

If they don't?

FSU will likely find a way out, and once that's accomplished there's a chance over half of the ACC schools leave. And many of those to Fox - the B10.

But hey, espn could always just place their financial stability in these college sports conferences merely on whether the idea of a GoR holds up.

Somehow, I don't think I'd want to place millions of dollars on that bet right now.

Not when I could do a simple controlled move and make all the rest of the concerns just go away.

(03-06-2023 02:25 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 08:58 AM)XLance Wrote:  Well, realignment was over the day that Texas and Oklahoma decided to go to the SEC together, and not in the favor of ESPN.

It's not sure what happened. Did Texas get nervous about going to the ACC without Notre Dame? Did Oklahoma fear going to the SEC without a true friend? Was it ESPN that just got greedy?

When that move was made the world of conference realignment changed.

It was no longer possible to have equal distribution of talent/blue blood football programs divided over four or 5 conferences. The B1G saw it as a direct assault on their conference, which led them to go ahead and destroy the PAC by inviting USC and UCLA. Probably even more importantly the B1G severed relationships with ESPN, so that the mouse would no longer be able to broadcast B1G events.

In the mean time, in a panic, ESPN agreed to continue a partnership with FOX to prop up the failed Big 12 conference so that the mouse would have additional inventory to supplement the loss of the B1G. In doing so ESPN set the ACC adrift.
It seemed that the only way the ACC could garner more money from ESPN was to expand, and the survival of the Big 12 robbed the ACC of the three most likely and compatible expansion candidates available.

Texas should have gone to the ACC as planned. If not with Notre Dame, TCU was an acceptable substitute agreeable to all.
Oklahoma to the SEC was a shoe in, but paired with another Texas school other than the Longhorns must have been a frightening prospect. It should still be frightening even with Texas, because Oklahoma will have a hard time standing toe to toe with the other programs in the SEC west.

The ACC was left to flounder in the wind. Stuck with a lousy TV deal and robbed by TV master of any reasonable way to escape poverty. Now some of the more valuable properties in the ACC are getting scared and are starting to act out. They are mad at the situation created by, pick one: Notre Dame, Texas or ESPN.

The simple solution would be to pay the ACC a little bit more and not rock the boat, but that not ESPN's meddling style. Every time the mouse has made a move, the B1G has made a better one. The overall problem for ESPN is that they have too much territory to protect from B1G intrusion with only one conference and too many schools to support if they use two conferences to completely keep the B1G out of the South.

ESPN allowed the Texas/Oklahoma pair to move together not in accordance with the plan. Then the B1G bested ESPN again with the USC/UCLA add, and the mouse is left to defend it's territory from the B1G getting a platform/recruiting foothold (FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina) while at the same time having to support Wake Forest and Boston College.

So far ESPN's track record is not good at solving problems. We'll see whether they chose to pay the ACC or destroy it with the hope of salvaging their own fiefdom.

That's not quite how that went down, or the whys of it, but ok, setting that aside...

So first, espn's current limitations are self-done. They wanted the SEC.

Doing so caused them to change what they wanted and/or how much they wanted it.

The SEC is a regional conference. And to a lesser degree, so is the ACC.

And so is the PAC, for that matter.

espn was edged out of the Big10 due to comparative costs, pure and simple. Warren did an NFL-style deal and espn wanted to pay the bargain basement prices they have been for college sports.

Which may very well be part of the stumbling block for the PAC. Apparently you need to be the Big10 to pull off a Big10-style deal.

(Or maybe they need a Warren in their corner - dunno.)

At this point, the best move for espn would be to make the schools they have not-so-unhappy.

The SEC is pretty much squared away due to the new media deal.

Most of the grousing seems to be coming from the ACC, and that, mostly from FSU, Clemson, and possibly ND.

So let the squeaky wheels get the grease. After all, espn does have the SEC media deal.

Facilitate transferring the kids to a new school - I mean, the schools to a new conference.

Allow the ACC to bring in 4 new kids to replace those 2, and use the cover of 4 for 2 to give them all a slight pay bump - which would have the added benefit of quieting ND I think.

Grab 3 of the 4 new kids from the B12 in order to make room for them to take advantage of the PAC situation.

And for the 4th, add UConn, Memphis, or USF - or all 3 making 6 for 18.

And that brings more schools in-house for espn.

And the ACC is stabilized.

If they don't?

FSU will likely find a way out, and once that's accomplished there's a chance over half of the ACC schools leave. And many of those to Fox - the B10.

But hey, espn could always just place their financial stability in these college sports conferences merely on whether the idea of a GoR holds up.

Somehow, I don't think I'd want to place millions of dollars on that bet right now.

Not when I could do a simple controlled move and make all the rest of the concerns just go away.

It's all down hill from here if they don't take some proactive steps, and some of them are counterintuitive.

Let Notre Dame go. If the Irish reup with the ACC that creates stability. As long as there is doubt about the Irish leaving there is instability. That move is counterintuitive.

Second cut Clemson and FSU loose to move the SEC and stay under ESPN's umbrella. That move makes ESPN much more likely to be favorable with the rest. It gives North Carolina and N.C. State more time to ponder their futures and does the same for Virginia. If Miami wants to test the waters let them. They could stay at least somewhat under the ESPN umbrella if they moved to the Big 12, or fully if the SEC took them as well.

What does that do for the ACC? It eliminates 4 votes to dissolve the conference. It leaves 11 schools, four of which are in North Carolina and 2 of which are in Virginia and all likely to vote to stay if they know they can control the vote. With 11 it takes 6 to dissolve so one North Carolina school or Virginia school would have to side with the others which include the schools least likely to find a better home. And this means with no dissolution possible the ACC is stable. The 11 remaining schools could take the 10 remaining PAC 12 schools and merge. Or they could reload as you mention Or they could bring in the Big East basketball schools and angle for a breakaway tournament and partner their hoops with the Big 12, which also pleases ESPN and FOX.

If Notre Dame and Miami head to the Big 10 and Clemson and FSU head to the SEC they are both at 18. If the Big 10 picks up Oregon and Washington to 20 the SEC can pick up Kansas, and Colorado and move to 20 as well, or perhaps Kansas and a third Texas school. Both could stop right there and let the Big 12 do its thing with the PAC remnant and you have 4 conferences.

But the thrust of my suggestion is the ACC should do what the PAC 12 either couldn't do or wouldn't do, and that is put vulnerability to rest first. When Notre Dame, if they choose to leave, does leave, and Miami, Clemson and FSU do the same the ACC that is left is no longer vulnerable. Now they can attract schools.
Villanova, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Connecticut, Georgetown all can be added to Pitt, Syracuse, and Boston College and could rebuild Big East hoops within the ACC. Now add the core hoops brands of the ACC to the mix and you have the premier basketball conference with which to push for a tournament free of the NCAA and more revenue. You cover your football with South Florida, and this conference could attract Navy, Army and likely Air Force because the behemoths are gone. Connecticut plays football with the ACC and you have 16 football schools with a focus on the academies and the Commander in Chielf's trophy.

The Big 12 picks up Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Cal and Stanford. You have a PAC division and a Big 12 division of Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Baylor; and a third of Cincinnati, Houston, and Central Florida and West Virginia Brigham Young and Utah to make 18.

Big 10:

Maryland, Miami, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
California Los Angeles, Notre Dame, Oregon, Southern California, Washington
(or add Stanford and pick up Notre Dame as a partial)

SEC:

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas

ACC:
Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest
Air Force, Army, Navy, South Florida
*Hoops only Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Saint Johns, Seton Hall, Villanova

If the ACC wants 20 football schools add these: U.A.B., Memphis, Temple, Tulane

New Big 12:
Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon State, Stanford (if picked up by Big 10 then San Diego State), Washington State
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Utah, West Virginia

Gonzaga hoops only possibly with Mt. St. Mary's

Other possible football additions: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada/UNLV

(03-06-2023 02:54 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 02:25 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 08:58 AM)XLance Wrote:  Well, realignment was over the day that Texas and Oklahoma decided to go to the SEC together, and not in the favor of ESPN.

It's not sure what happened. Did Texas get nervous about going to the ACC without Notre Dame? Did Oklahoma fear going to the SEC without a true friend? Was it ESPN that just got greedy?

When that move was made the world of conference realignment changed.

It was no longer possible to have equal distribution of talent/blue blood football programs divided over four or 5 conferences. The B1G saw it as a direct assault on their conference, which led them to go ahead and destroy the PAC by inviting USC and UCLA. Probably even more importantly the B1G severed relationships with ESPN, so that the mouse would no longer be able to broadcast B1G events.

In the mean time, in a panic, ESPN agreed to continue a partnership with FOX to prop up the failed Big 12 conference so that the mouse would have additional inventory to supplement the loss of the B1G. In doing so ESPN set the ACC adrift.
It seemed that the only way the ACC could garner more money from ESPN was to expand, and the survival of the Big 12 robbed the ACC of the three most likely and compatible expansion candidates available.

Texas should have gone to the ACC as planned. If not with Notre Dame, TCU was an acceptable substitute agreeable to all.
Oklahoma to the SEC was a shoe in, but paired with another Texas school other than the Longhorns must have been a frightening prospect. It should still be frightening even with Texas, because Oklahoma will have a hard time standing toe to toe with the other programs in the SEC west.

The ACC was left to flounder in the wind. Stuck with a lousy TV deal and robbed by TV master of any reasonable way to escape poverty. Now some of the more valuable properties in the ACC are getting scared and are starting to act out. They are mad at the situation created by, pick one: Notre Dame, Texas or ESPN.

The simple solution would be to pay the ACC a little bit more and not rock the boat, but that not ESPN's meddling style. Every time the mouse has made a move, the B1G has made a better one. The overall problem for ESPN is that they have too much territory to protect from B1G intrusion with only one conference and too many schools to support if they use two conferences to completely keep the B1G out of the South.

ESPN allowed the Texas/Oklahoma pair to move together not in accordance with the plan. Then the B1G bested ESPN again with the USC/UCLA add, and the mouse is left to defend it's territory from the B1G getting a platform/recruiting foothold (FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina) while at the same time having to support Wake Forest and Boston College.

So far ESPN's track record is not good at solving problems. We'll see whether they chose to pay the ACC or destroy it with the hope of salvaging their own fiefdom.

That's not quite how that went down, or the whys of it, but ok, setting that aside...

So first, espn's current limitations are self-done. They wanted the SEC.

Doing so caused them to change what they wanted and/or how much they wanted it.

The SEC is a regional conference. And to a lesser degree, so is the ACC.

And so is the PAC, for that matter.

espn was edged out of the Big10 due to comparative costs, pure and simple. Warren did an NFL-style deal and espn wanted to pay the bargain basement prices they have been for college sports.

Which may very well be part of the stumbling block for the PAC. Apparently you need to be the Big10 to pull off a Big10-style deal.

(Or maybe they need a Warren in their corner - dunno.)

At this point, the best move for espn would be to make the schools they have not-so-unhappy.

The SEC is pretty much squared away due to the new media deal.

Most of the grousing seems to be coming from the ACC, and that, mostly from FSU, Clemson, and possibly ND.

So let the squeaky wheels get the grease. After all, espn does have the SEC media deal.

Facilitate transferring the kids to a new school - I mean, the schools to a new conference.

Allow the ACC to bring in 4 new kids to replace those 2, and use the cover of 4 for 2 to give them all a slight pay bump - which would have the added benefit of quieting ND I think.

Grab 3 of the 4 new kids from the B12 in order to make room for them to take advantage of the PAC situation.

And for the 4th, add UConn, Memphis, or USF - or all 3 making 6 for 18.

And that brings more schools in-house for espn.

And the ACC is stabilized.

If they don't?

FSU will likely find a way out, and once that's accomplished there's a chance over half of the ACC schools leave. And many of those to Fox - the B10.

But hey, espn could always just place their financial stability in these college sports conferences merely on whether the idea of a GoR holds up.

Somehow, I don't think I'd want to place millions of dollars on that bet right now.

Not when I could do a simple controlled move and make all the rest of the concerns just go away.

It's all down hill from here if they don't take some proactive steps, and some of them are counterintuitive.

Let Notre Dame go. If the Irish reup with the ACC that creates stability. As long as there is doubt about the Irish leaving there is instability. That move is counterintuitive.

Second cut Clemson and FSU loose to move the SEC and stay under ESPN's umbrella. That move makes ESPN much more likely to be favorable with the rest. It gives North Carolina and N.C. State more time to ponder their futures and does the same for Virginia. If Miami wants to test the waters let them. They could stay at least somewhat under the ESPN umbrella if they moved to the Big 12, or fully if the SEC took them as well.

What does that do for the ACC? It eliminates 4 votes to dissolve the conference. It leaves 11 schools, four of which are in North Carolina and 2 of which are in Virginia and all likely to vote to stay if they know they can control the vote. With 11 it takes 6 to dissolve so one North Carolina school or Virginia school would have to side with the others which include the schools least likely to find a better home. And this means with no dissolution possible the ACC is stable. The 11 remaining schools could take the 10 remaining PAC 12 schools and merge. Or they could reload as you mention Or they could bring in the Big East basketball schools and angle for a breakaway tournament and partner their hoops with the Big 12, which also pleases ESPN and FOX.

If Notre Dame and Miami head to the Big 10 and Clemson and FSU head to the SEC they are both at 18. If the Big 10 picks up Oregon and Washington to 20 the SEC can pick up Kansas, and Colorado and move to 20 as well, or perhaps Kansas and a third Texas school. Both could stop right there and let the Big 12 do its thing with the PAC remnant and you have 4 conferences.

But the thrust of my suggestion is the ACC should do what the PAC 12 either couldn't do or wouldn't do, and that is put vulnerability to rest first. When Notre Dame, if they choose to leave, does leave, and Miami, Clemson and FSU do the same the ACC that is left is no longer vulnerable. Now they can attract schools.
Villanova, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Connecticut, Georgetown all can be added to Pitt, Syracuse, and Boston College and could rebuild Big East hoops within the ACC. Now add the core hoops brands of the ACC to the mix and you have the premier basketball conference with which to push for a tournament free of the NCAA and more revenue. You cover your football with South Florida, and this conference could attract Navy, Army and likely Air Force because the behemoths are gone. Connecticut plays football with the ACC and you have 16 football schools with a focus on the academies and the Commander in Chielf's trophy.

The Big 12 picks up Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Cal and Stanford. You have a PAC division and a Big 12 division of Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Baylor; and a third of Cincinnati, Houston, and Central Florida and West Virginia Brigham Young and Utah to make 18.

Big 10:

Maryland, Miami, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
California Los Angeles, Notre Dame, Oregon, Southern California, Washington
(or add Stanford and pick up Notre Dame as a partial)

SEC:

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas

ACC:
Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest
Air Force, Army, Navy, South Florida
*Hoops only Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Saint Johns, Seton Hall, Villanova

If the ACC wants 20 football schools add these: U.A.B., Memphis, Temple, Tulane

New Big 12:
Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon State, Stanford (if picked up by Big 10 then San Diego State), Washington State
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Utah, West Virginia

Gonzaga hoops only possibly with Mt. St. Mary's

Other possible football additions: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada/UNLV

Interesting.

Thinking about Miami...

IF FSU and Clemson are out to the SEC, and the B10 can get only 1 school, I don't think that answer is Miami. Plus, I don't think Miami would want to leave their BigEast rivals without at least a travelling partner. I think Miami would stay, unless the SEC came calling, especially if they went with FSU and GT.

And if the SEC wants 20 - FSU, Clemson, Miami, and GT, would not be bad choices.

And so if we presume NC is staying, then I think the B10's first choice is VA.

Rival with the eastern B10 schools - Maryland in particular. And is contiguous - also due to Maryland.

And if a second from ACC is possible, then pairing Duke with VA, no question.

For the other 2, adding Kansas with Duke solidifies Big10 basketball.

And Stanford finishes out by adding: another California school, a travelling partner, which brings another market, with top tier academics.

To address backfills -

ACC - keeps ND, loses VA and Duke, and I don't see GT on any list. Adds 2: UCF, WV. That's 13 plus the 3 military fb-only and ND non-fb. (I think the C7, et al, enjoy having their own conference in the BigEast, but sure, they could join ND in the ACC if they wanted.)

B12 - Loses UCF and WV, and Cincinnati's listed here too. Adds Colorado, WA, and OR.

And if Cal doesn't join with the B12's religious schools, then Fresno State, to give SDSU an in-state. in-conference rival.

Short version:

SEC - FSU, Clemson, Miami, and GT - 20 (NC and NC state for 22)

B10 - VA, Duke, Kansas, and Stanford - 20 (WA and Colorado for 22)

ACC - UCF, WV, UConn, Cin, USF - 13, +ND (14), and +3M (16). (Memphis, Tulane, ECU, and Temple to replace NC and NC state)

B12 - 8 PAC schools plus SDSU, and either Cal or Fresno State - 18. (Colorado State, Boise State, SMU, and Rice, to replace WA and Colorado.)

And I think all 4 conferences are strengthened even more.

Whew! you guys are making my head hurt.

If you were to look at a map of the SEC, what could that conference possible want re: football?
What they have is a tight mostly drivable conference made up of mostly really good football schools with just a hint of cannon fodder added in.
At best the only thing that they lack is a second school in Florida.....that's it, plus it's crazy talk to think that any conference will or wants to go beyond 16.

So if the SEC wants another Florida school and is willing make a sacrifice to get it, they can just trade one of their two worst football schools for Florida State...Kentucky.
Yes, Kentucky, whose upcoming OOC games include Akron, Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Murray State, Toledo, Kent State and Tennessee Tech. The schedule of a real SEC powerhouse. Heck the ACC could even take the other worst football school, just to take Vanderbilt off of their hands, leaving both conferences at 15.
IMO the ACC would then pick up Tulane as number 16.
The SEC could stop at 15 so that they could increase their per school payout to a level equal to the B1G and have the undisputed best football conference.

Any further movement is unnecessary and counterproductive, not only for the conferences involved but for ESPN's pocketbook.

(03-06-2023 08:09 AM)XLance Wrote:  Whew! you guys are making my head hurt.

If you were to look at a map of the SEC, what could that conference possible want re: football?
What they have is a tight mostly drivable conference made up of mostly really good football schools with just a hint of cannon fodder added in.
At best the only thing that they lack is a second school in Florida.....that's it, plus it's crazy talk to think that any conference will or wants to go beyond 16.

So if the SEC wants another Florida school and is willing make a sacrifice to get it, they can just trade one of their two worst football schools for Florida State...Kentucky.
Yes, Kentucky, whose upcoming OOC games include Akron, Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Murray State, Toledo, Kent State and Tennessee Tech. The schedule of a real SEC powerhouse. Heck the ACC could even take the other worst football school, just to take Vanderbilt off of their hands, leaving both conferences at 15.
IMO the ACC would then pick up Tulane as number 16.
The SEC could stop at 15 so that they could increase their per school payout to a level equal to the B1G and have the undisputed best football conference.

Any further movement is unnecessary and counterproductive, not only for the conferences involved but for ESPN's pocketbook.

Are you sure it is the SEC behind this? If ESPN worked it so that Clemson and FSU were to move to the SEC what does that give ESPN? Simple really, 22 of the last 25 national championships in one conference. Who's missing USC who actually vacated the one they had in 2003-4, and Ohio State who won it twice in that time span.

I think we all know the Mouse has a long and somewhat vindictive mindset for those who have thwarted them. Delany didn't get carriage for the independent BTN which was started in part to stick it to ESPN. The PAC never got network carriage for theirs. The ACCN was very late to launch because the deal that the Mouse allegedly had in place to bolster its opening was shot down by conference members in the ACC. And now the Big 10 has totally snubbed them and the Alliance gummed up their coup of the expanded playoffs.

Placing FSU and Clemson in the SEC legitimizes the ability of ESPN to essentially own the CFP with much less overhead by having all of the programs capable of winning one in the last quarter century just in that conference.

What FSU and Clemson permit by moving to the SEC is a legitimate concern and reason for the Buckeyes to consider the same move. It's true you have two absolute powers in the Big Ten just by the disproportionate revenue value of Michigan and Ohio State essentially representing 36.7% of the total revenue in the Big Ten.

If Ohio State could be lured away what does the Big Ten have left in the way of true national championship winners? Michigan and Nebraska then of the Big 12 shared a championship in 1997 and it was before the BCS and was a press voted NC. Penn State last won one in 1986. Independent Notre Dame is slightly more recent in 1988. What about Wisconsin? 1941. Michigan State? Not in the 20th or 21st century. Iowa last won one in 1960. Do you see a trend here?

Technically if ESPN could lure Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State into a true super conference for football, along with Nebraska, Notre Dame and Miami that conference would be college football. Add Clemson and FSU and there is 24. You could justify USC inclusion as well. Other than the Trojans only Utah (a computer service awarded championship well after Florida won the BCS) has won one since 1980. USC did it twice.

I think you can see the line of reasoning here. Why pay for the Big 10 when you essentially get all of the good stuff with just 3 schools Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State which all happen to have stadia which seat over 100,000. Why pay for the PAC 12 when USC and Utah are the only two to have had a pulse in 43 years? ACC? Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech have won one or more each since 1990.

With Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC and ESPN holding Miami, Clemson, and Florida State, could they make the case compelling enough for Penn State and Ohio State? While some people will say no, never! Is it worth consideration in a Pay for Play age? Unpopular as the notion no doubt would be, I think yes. Heck, just USC and Ohio State would give you everyone who has won one since 2000 except Utah's computer post season gimme.

Somewhere in a back room at ESPN and FOX these kinds of issues are being discussed. To Cover everyone who has won one in the last 25 years you need only to go back to 1998. For 18 year olds that's ancient history.

(03-06-2023 08:44 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 08:09 AM)XLance Wrote:  Whew! you guys are making my head hurt.

If you were to look at a map of the SEC, what could that conference possible want re: football?
What they have is a tight mostly drivable conference made up of mostly really good football schools with just a hint of cannon fodder added in.
At best the only thing that they lack is a second school in Florida.....that's it, plus it's crazy talk to think that any conference will or wants to go beyond 16.

So if the SEC wants another Florida school and is willing make a sacrifice to get it, they can just trade one of their two worst football schools for Florida State...Kentucky.
Yes, Kentucky, whose upcoming OOC games include Akron, Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Murray State, Toledo, Kent State and Tennessee Tech. The schedule of a real SEC powerhouse. Heck the ACC could even take the other worst football school, just to take Vanderbilt off of their hands, leaving both conferences at 15.
IMO the ACC would then pick up Tulane as number 16.
The SEC could stop at 15 so that they could increase their per school payout to a level equal to the B1G and have the undisputed best football conference.

Any further movement is unnecessary and counterproductive, not only for the conferences involved but for ESPN's pocketbook.

Are you sure it is the SEC behind this? If ESPN worked it so that Clemson and FSU were to move to the SEC what does that give ESPN? Simple really, 22 of the last 25 national championships in one conference. Who's missing USC who actually vacated the one they had in 2003-4, and Ohio State who won it twice in that time span.

I think we all know the Mouse has a long and somewhat vindictive mindset for those who have thwarted them. Delany didn't get carriage for the independent BTN which was started in part to stick it to ESPN. The PAC never got network carriage for theirs. The ACCN was very late to launch because the deal that the Mouse allegedly had in place to bolster its opening was shot down by conference members in the ACC. And now the Big 10 has totally snubbed them and the Alliance gummed up their coup of the expanded playoffs.

Placing FSU and Clemson in the SEC legitimizes the ability of ESPN to essentially own the CFP with much less overhead by having all of the programs capable of winning one in the last quarter century just in that conference.

What FSU and Clemson permit by moving to the SEC is a legitimate concern and reason for the Buckeyes to consider the same move. It's true you have two absolute powers in the Big Ten just by the disproportionate revenue value of Michigan and Ohio State essentially representing 36.7% of the total revenue in the Big Ten.

If Ohio State could be lured away what does the Big Ten have left in the way of true national championship winners? Michigan and Nebraska then of the Big 12 shared a championship in 1997 and it was before the BCS and was a press voted NC. Penn State last won one in 1986. Notre Dame is slightly more recent in 1988. What about Wisconsin? 1941 Michigan State? Not in the 20th or 21st century. Iowa last won one in 1960. Do you see a trend here?

Technically if ESPN could lure Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State into a true super conference for football, along with Nebraska, Notre Dame and Miami that conference would be college football. Add Clemson and FSU and there is 24. You could justify USC inclusion as well. Other than the Trojans only Utah has won one since 1980. USC did it twice.

I think you can see the line of reasoning here. Why pay for the Big 10 when you essentially get all of the good stuff with just 3 schools Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State which all happen to have stadia which seat over 100,000. Why pay for the PAC 12 when USC and Utah are the only two to have had a pulse in 43 years? ACC? Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech have won one or more each since 1990.

With Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC and ESPN holding Miami, Clemson, and Florida State, could they make the case compelling enough for Penn State and Ohio State? While some people will say no, never! Is it worth consideration in a Pay for Play age? Unpopular as the notion no doubt would be, I think yes. Heck, just USC and Ohio State would give you everyone who has won one since 2000 except Utah.

Somewhere in a back room at ESPN and FOX these kinds of issues are being discussed. To Cover everyone who has won one in the last 25 years you need only to go back to 1998. For 18 year olds that's ancient history.

Hey, I already told you that we'll trade you Clemson for South Carolina, not so much for the school per se, but just to keep a presence in South Carolina, which helps keep us connected to Georgia Tech, although that sure seems like a lot of trouble, but whatever.

We've discussed P1, but I think we are a few years away, before the likes of Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State can get out of their contracts. When FOX buys out the rest of the BTN...watch out for the big changes.

(03-06-2023 09:00 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 08:44 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 08:09 AM)XLance Wrote:  Whew! you guys are making my head hurt.

If you were to look at a map of the SEC, what could that conference possible want re: football?
What they have is a tight mostly drivable conference made up of mostly really good football schools with just a hint of cannon fodder added in.
At best the only thing that they lack is a second school in Florida.....that's it, plus it's crazy talk to think that any conference will or wants to go beyond 16.

So if the SEC wants another Florida school and is willing make a sacrifice to get it, they can just trade one of their two worst football schools for Florida State...Kentucky.
Yes, Kentucky, whose upcoming OOC games include Akron, Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Murray State, Toledo, Kent State and Tennessee Tech. The schedule of a real SEC powerhouse. Heck the ACC could even take the other worst football school, just to take Vanderbilt off of their hands, leaving both conferences at 15.
IMO the ACC would then pick up Tulane as number 16.
The SEC could stop at 15 so that they could increase their per school payout to a level equal to the B1G and have the undisputed best football conference.

Any further movement is unnecessary and counterproductive, not only for the conferences involved but for ESPN's pocketbook.

Are you sure it is the SEC behind this? If ESPN worked it so that Clemson and FSU were to move to the SEC what does that give ESPN? Simple really, 22 of the last 25 national championships in one conference. Who's missing USC who actually vacated the one they had in 2003-4, and Ohio State who won it twice in that time span.

I think we all know the Mouse has a long and somewhat vindictive mindset for those who have thwarted them. Delany didn't get carriage for the independent BTN which was started in part to stick it to ESPN. The PAC never got network carriage for theirs. The ACCN was very late to launch because the deal that the Mouse allegedly had in place to bolster its opening was shot down by conference members in the ACC. And now the Big 10 has totally snubbed them and the Alliance gummed up their coup of the expanded playoffs.

Placing FSU and Clemson in the SEC legitimizes the ability of ESPN to essentially own the CFP with much less overhead by having all of the programs capable of winning one in the last quarter century just in that conference.

What FSU and Clemson permit by moving to the SEC is a legitimate concern and reason for the Buckeyes to consider the same move. It's true you have two absolute powers in the Big Ten just by the disproportionate revenue value of Michigan and Ohio State essentially representing 36.7% of the total revenue in the Big Ten.

If Ohio State could be lured away what does the Big Ten have left in the way of true national championship winners? Michigan and Nebraska then of the Big 12 shared a championship in 1997 and it was before the BCS and was a press voted NC. Penn State last won one in 1986. Notre Dame is slightly more recent in 1988. What about Wisconsin? 1941 Michigan State? Not in the 20th or 21st century. Iowa last won one in 1960. Do you see a trend here?

Technically if ESPN could lure Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State into a true super conference for football, along with Nebraska, Notre Dame and Miami that conference would be college football. Add Clemson and FSU and there is 24. You could justify USC inclusion as well. Other than the Trojans only Utah has won one since 1980. USC did it twice.

I think you can see the line of reasoning here. Why pay for the Big 10 when you essentially get all of the good stuff with just 3 schools Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State which all happen to have stadia which seat over 100,000. Why pay for the PAC 12 when USC and Utah are the only two to have had a pulse in 43 years? ACC? Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech have won one or more each since 1990.

With Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC and ESPN holding Miami, Clemson, and Florida State, could they make the case compelling enough for Penn State and Ohio State? While some people will say no, never! Is it worth consideration in a Pay for Play age? Unpopular as the notion no doubt would be, I think yes. Heck, just USC and Ohio State would give you everyone who has won one since 2000 except Utah.

Somewhere in a back room at ESPN and FOX these kinds of issues are being discussed. To Cover everyone who has won one in the last 25 years you need only to go back to 1998. For 18 year olds that's ancient history.

Hey, I already told you that we'll trade you Clemson for South Carolina, not so much for the school per se, but just to keep a presence in South Carolina, which helps keep us connected to Georgia Tech, although that sure seems like a lot of trouble, but whatever.

We've discussed P1, but I think we are a few years away, before the likes of Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State can get out of their contracts. When FOX buys out the rest of the BTN...watch out for the big changes.

FOX didn't want to buy the last 10% of it. There was a contract option, and the sale was essentially a put. Kagan use to report its annual earnings until about 5 years ago it tanked by 1/4 of total value in one year. Cord cutting. It hit us all but them it hit hard because they held 50% roughly. Now its 39%. Southern markets are growing faster, and culture means we keep the recruiting hot beds. I like our continued outlook much better than theirs.

That said nobody knows what pay for play and the cases following it will do to the game, or any revenue sport for that matter. We also don't know if the court rulings which will be dramatically impactful will carry the requirement for all new contracts. There has been precedent for this in the past, just not with college sports.

If Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State go pay for play, they will want to keep their venues packed for obvious reasons. Therein resides the lure.