(11-10-2022 11:36 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Barring an insane shortage of diesel or OPEC skull fcking us, inflation has peaked.

Still a ways to go to get back down where it needs to go though. Unfortunately it took the Fed finally realizing inflation was a real issue for them to act accordingly. The byproduct of high rates means housing collapse, less credit available for business expansion, layoffs, higher unemployment. So yeah prices will go down after that.

Exactly. The FED raising rates isn't direct correlation to inflation just going down. Its the start of the chain that results in the end in many losing jobs which is next year or in my company's case saying F it now. Most were worthless positions that brought the company little value anyways IMO.

(11-10-2022 11:37 AM)HCJag Wrote:  At what point did inflation really take off? Has it been a year yet? If so, I wouldn't call 7.7% over an already inflated number very good news.

It started taking off in April '21 (4.2%). October '21 was 6 2%. Peak was June '22 (9.1%). So there will be a steady monthly decrease going forward till June. If it stays above 5%, it will be unbearable for some. Bankruptcy courts will be very busy.

(11-10-2022 11:43 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 11:36 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Barring an insane shortage of diesel or OPEC skull fcking us, inflation has peaked.

Still a ways to go to get back down where it needs to go though. Unfortunately it took the Fed finally realizing inflation was a real issue for them to act accordingly. The byproduct of high rates means housing collapse, less credit available for business expansion, layoffs, higher unemployment. So yeah prices will go down after that.

Exactly. The FED raising rates isn't direct correlation to inflation just going down. Its the start of the chain that results in the end in many losing jobs which is next year or in my company's case saying F it now. Most were worthless positions that brought the company little value anyways IMO.

It's already happening in Tech spaces. Those companies who are laying off workers were built for growth and it was because funding was helping start ups and creating solid middle class jobs.

Those will disappear, which means every industry will feel that ripple. The job market will tighten at some point in Q1 of 2023.

(11-10-2022 11:47 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 11:37 AM)HCJag Wrote:  At what point did inflation really take off? Has it been a year yet? If so, I wouldn't call 7.7% over an already inflated number very good news.

It started taking off in April '21 (4.2%). October '21 was 6 2%. Peak was June '22 (9.1%). So there will be a steady monthly decrease going forward till June. If it stays above 5%, it will be unbearable for some. Bankruptcy courts will be very busy.

Right after Democrats passed the American Rescue Plan Act. I thought it was insane at the time, and it looks even more insane now.

(11-10-2022 11:52 AM)RuckleSt Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 11:47 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 11:37 AM)HCJag Wrote:  At what point did inflation really take off? Has it been a year yet? If so, I wouldn't call 7.7% over an already inflated number very good news.

It started taking off in April '21 (4.2%). October '21 was 6 2%. Peak was June '22 (9.1%). So there will be a steady monthly decrease going forward till June. If it stays above 5%, it will be unbearable for some. Bankruptcy courts will be very busy.

Right after Democrats passed the American Rescue Plan Act. I thought it was insane at the time, and it looks even more insane now.

The US didn't need "rescuing". It just needed to have the chains taken off the doors. This election cycle gave everyone a pretty good idea where all of that money went. It wasn't to the Republican donors.

Applauding any positive news from this disaster of an administration.

(11-10-2022 10:37 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Not confident it will continue, but at least it's good for the market and our 401(k)'s for now.

Quote:The numbers: The cost of living rose a relatively modest 0.4% in October, a sign that price pressures in the U.S. are easing after the biggest surge in inflation in 40 years.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index.

The smaller-than-expected rise in inflation gave a huge boost to stock prices early Thursday. Bond yields also fell.

Wall Street investors hope a slowdown in inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to ease off on its rapid series of interest-rate hikes aimed at slowing the economy.

The yearly rate of inflation fell to 7.7% from 8.2%, marking the lowest level since January. Inflation had peaked at a nearly 41-year high of 9.1% in June.

In another positive sign, the so-called core rate of inflation, which omits food and energy, rose just 0.3%. Wall Street had forecast a 0.5% increase

U.S. inflation shows signs of easing, perhaps giving Fed ammo to go slowe

Quote:U.S. stocks surged at the open Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 900 points, after a highly-anticipated inflation report came in softer than anticipated. The Dow DJIA, 2.48% was up 2.8% soon after the opening bell, while the S&P 500 SPX, 3.89% jumped 3.7% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, 5.24% soared 5.1%, according to FactSet data, at last check.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-su...2022-11-10

Dow currently up 800.

Being in the car business....the last few weeks have been crap at least where I am at. If people are buying cars, you know the economy is up.

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(11-10-2022 11:36 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Barring an insane shortage of diesel or OPEC skull fcking us, inflation has peaked.

Still a ways to go to get back down where it needs to go though. Unfortunately it took the Fed finally realizing inflation was a real issue for them to act accordingly. The byproduct of high rates means housing collapse, less credit available for business expansion, layoffs, higher unemployment. So yeah prices will go down after that.

Ummm have you not been watching the price at the pump over the last 10 days.... or the continued depleting of the SOR?

Inflation slowed a bit for this report... yes. I would not bet on a similar slowing next month.

It will eventually start to slow - that is inevitable, but we are not done quite yet.

(11-10-2022 11:40 AM)Hernando Hills Tiger Wrote:  I've look [sic] at the market everyday for the last 3 years. It is hardly surging. My 401K is down 20% this year alone. Maybe 6 more months of gains will allow this to be true?

To start a thread stating inflation eased and market is surging is just a stupid lie.

The marked surged, TODAY. The thread title says "Surges", not surging.

Try to keep up, Gomer. I know rudimentary English can be hard for some.

(11-10-2022 12:27 PM)hburg Wrote:  Being in the car business....the last few weeks have been crap at least where I am at. If people are buying cars, you know the economy is up.

Has the chip shortage been tackled finally?

7.7% inflation

hooray

Not sure where these numbers were pulled from but inflation killed me in October much worse than the last three months. Look for these numbers to be revised. There is missing data.

(11-10-2022 12:27 PM)hburg Wrote:  Being in the car business....the last few weeks have been crap at least where I am at. If people are buying cars, you know the economy is up.

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Only thing our dealerships have are trucks. It’s been before the pandemic since I’ve seen cars on lots. Our Honda Dealership puts its small number of SUVs closest to the road thinking people won’t realize the rest of their parking lot is empty.

Ford and Lincoln advertise cars but they are no where to be found on the lot.

Same with Chevrolet.

The Ram, Jeep and Dodge dealership had some chargers & challengers until this summer now just SUVs trucks and vans

(11-10-2022 01:08 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  Not sure where these numbers were pulled from but inflation killed me in October much worse than the last three months. Look for these numbers to be revised. There is missing data.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0...%20months.

(11-10-2022 01:15 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 01:08 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  Not sure where these numbers were pulled from but inflation killed me in October much worse than the last three months. Look for these numbers to be revised. There is missing data.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0...%20months.

These numbers will be revised

SURGING NOT SURGING NOT SURGING SURGING SURGING SURGING NOT SURGING

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The only car lots I see that isn't full of used cars are the German dealerships. BMW, VW and MB are full of inventory. Will start seeing Factory incentives all over the place by next Spring when the Tax Refunds start coming out.

(11-10-2022 01:16 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 01:15 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 01:08 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  Not sure where these numbers were pulled from but inflation killed me in October much worse than the last three months. Look for these numbers to be revised. There is missing data.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0...%20months.

These numbers will be revised

Ok

(11-10-2022 01:21 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 01:16 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 01:15 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-10-2022 01:08 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  Not sure where these numbers were pulled from but inflation killed me in October much worse than the last three months. Look for these numbers to be revised. There is missing data.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0...%20months.

These numbers will be revised

Ok

Went back to start of October and saw where Diesel started @ $4.80 avg and ended the month at $5.33. That’s where I got stung as we are freight dependent. Both freight cost and product climbed accordingly.