It is reported that the BIG is finalizing its media deal with Fox, NBC, and CBS.
https://nypost.com/2022/08/08/big-ten-on...-espn/amp/

If true, I think this might be a very good news for the ACC (and potentially for Cincy too).

This is what I posted on the main board:

1. Back in early July, John Canzano (Oregon guy) had an interview with Bob Thompson and wrote this:

Fox was probably pretty ticked when Texas and Oklahoma announced the move to the SEC and I imagine they believe ESPN was behind it,” Thompson said. “I think the days of Fox and ESPN partnering on things like the Big 12 and Pac-12 are probably over for now.”
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pa...comes-with

Fox not sharing the BIG TV rights with the ESPN confirms that the cooperation between Fox and ESPN is OVER.

2. My understanding is Fox didn’t make an offer for Pac content. Instead Fox is probably going to invest in B12.

3. ESPN still needs West coast schools for late night programs. But no announcement during the 30 day exclusive window.

4. This is a bad omen for Pac.

A few things to think about, per Thompson:

• The Pac-12 will survive if ESPN reaches an agreement with the conference during this negotiating window that ensures the 10 remaining universities have a reasonable annual payout going forward.

• If ESPN’s initial offer is a lowball to the Pac-12, Thompson expects it could cause a few members to bolt or at least prompt them to seriously explore other options.

• Thompson negotiated dozens of these kinds of deals with a variety of conferences in his career. He said that ESPN may decide to make a shrewd offer to the Pac-12, knowing that it if it’s rejected, the conference is likely to fall apart and have a handful of members end up with the Big 12.

“ESPN,” he said, “can then go after those rights buoyed by the fact that they have $$$ in their pocket that they didn't pay the Pac 12.”

• The whole Pac-12 + ACC alliance makes Thompson leery. He believes the concept was hatched as a way to funnel some extra dollars to ACC members who have grown restless with the terms of the conference’s current media rights deal.

Said Thompson: “It seems to me the play is that somehow the ACC Network serves both conferences and replaces Pac-12 Networks ultimately increasing the payout from ESPN to the ACC.”
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-es...ker-as-pac

5. ESPN needs West Coast programs. But they don’t want to pay for the whole Pac 12 package. What would this mean? Moving some of Pac schools to the SEC would be very expensive. I think the answer is obvious.

6. If ESPN and Fox are really at war, the one B12 program that the ESPN might get interested in is Cincy. I won’t be surprised if ESPN is willing to pay for moving Cincy to ACC.

(08-08-2022 11:26 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  ....
• The whole Pac-12 + ACC alliance makes [Bob] Thompson leery. He believes the concept was hatched as a way to funnel some extra dollars to ACC members who have grown restless with the terms of the conference’s current media rights deal.
Said Thompson: “It seems to me the play is that somehow the ACC Network serves both conferences and replaces Pac-12 Networks ultimately increasing the payout from ESPN to the ACC.”[/i]
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-es...ker-as-pac

5. ESPN needs West Coast programs. But they don’t want to pay for the whole Pac 12 package. What would this mean?
....

At first glance, the relevant conjecture now seems to be this:

Which 4-8 schools will move from ACC to SEC and which 4-16 new schools will be brought under ESPN's ACCN umbrella?

(08-08-2022 11:26 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  It is reported that the BIG is finalizing its media deal with Fox, NBC, and CBS.
https://nypost.com/2022/08/08/big-ten-on...-espn/amp/

If true, I think this might be a very good news for the ACC (and potentially for Cincy too).

This is what I posted on the main board:

1. Back in early July, John Canzano (Oregon guy) had an interview with Bob Thompson and wrote this:

Fox was probably pretty ticked when Texas and Oklahoma announced the move to the SEC and I imagine they believe ESPN was behind it,” Thompson said. “I think the days of Fox and ESPN partnering on things like the Big 12 and Pac-12 are probably over for now.”
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pa...comes-with

Fox not sharing the BIG TV rights with the ESPN confirms that the cooperation between Fox and ESPN is OVER.

2. My understanding is Fox didn’t make an offer for Pac content. Instead Fox is probably going to invest in B12.

3. ESPN still needs West coast schools for late night programs. But no announcement during the 30 day exclusive window.

4. This is a bad omen for Pac.

A few things to think about, per Thompson:

• The Pac-12 will survive if ESPN reaches an agreement with the conference during this negotiating window that ensures the 10 remaining universities have a reasonable annual payout going forward.

• If ESPN’s initial offer is a lowball to the Pac-12, Thompson expects it could cause a few members to bolt or at least prompt them to seriously explore other options.

• Thompson negotiated dozens of these kinds of deals with a variety of conferences in his career. He said that ESPN may decide to make a shrewd offer to the Pac-12, knowing that it if it’s rejected, the conference is likely to fall apart and have a handful of members end up with the Big 12.

“ESPN,” he said, “can then go after those rights buoyed by the fact that they have $$$ in their pocket that they didn't pay the Pac 12.”

• The whole Pac-12 + ACC alliance makes Thompson leery. He believes the concept was hatched as a way to funnel some extra dollars to ACC members who have grown restless with the terms of the conference’s current media rights deal.

Said Thompson: “It seems to me the play is that somehow the ACC Network serves both conferences and replaces Pac-12 Networks ultimately increasing the payout from ESPN to the ACC.”
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-es...ker-as-pac

5. ESPN needs West Coast programs. But they don’t want to pay for the whole Pac 12 package. What would this mean? Moving some of Pac schools to the SEC would be very expensive. I think the answer is obvious.

6. If ESPN and Fox are really at war, the one B12 program that the ESPN might get interested in is Cincy. I won’t be surprised if ESPN is willing to pay for moving Cincy to ACC.

This may be good for us. ESPN already shills for the SEC. Maybe they'll hype the other conference in which they're heavily invested. The battle lines are drawn between ESPN and Fox. ESPN also won't want to lose any valuable schools to Fox, so the realignment implications are interesting.

Yeaaaaaahhh...

Something is telling me that ESPN is going to have some B1G games too.

(08-09-2022 06:20 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Yeaaaaaahhh...

Something is telling me that ESPN is going to have some B1G games too.

Prediction: if ESPN truly does lose the Big Ten contract, look for them to make a play for Cincinnati - either by obtaining rights to the entire Big XII (maybe unlikely), or by offering to move the Bearcats to the ACC. JMO.

ESPN can and will Let BIG go and Sign ND to 75M per year as an INDY! This will replace the BIG10 programming on ESPN.

(08-09-2022 06:33 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  ESPN can and will Let BIG go and Sign ND to 75M per year as an INDY! This will replace the BIG10 programming on ESPN.

No, ESPN would be forth choice to us to televise our home games. NBC,CBS,Fox than ESPN.


Swarbrick said we will have to spheres. The Big Ten and SEC. We will drift toward the Big now and not look back.

(08-09-2022 06:28 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 06:20 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Yeaaaaaahhh...

Something is telling me that ESPN is going to have some B1G games too.

Prediction: if ESPN truly does lose the Big Ten contract, look for them to make a play for Cincinnati - either by obtaining rights to the entire Big XII (maybe unlikely), or by offering to move the Bearcats to the ACC. JMO.

I agree.....ESPN/ACC is about to do something now. Gonna be interesting.

Moving Cincinnati and WVU to the ACC would not be a game changer. And unless ESPN is suddenly paranoid there's no way that meaningfully closes the gap.

What it would do is blow up the math on dissolving the ACC. That would, absent B1G cooperative raiding, lead to more non-P2 invites than P2 invites in the ACC and halt the ability to dissolve the ACC. What that would signal is that the ACC would be frozen in place until the early 2030s and then we do ACC liquidation all over again but after suffering a $300-500m deficit in TV dollars compared to our competition and the requisite drain that will impose on all the programs in the conference. But then there's no GoR gymnastics necessary. You can just pick up your ball and leave.

(08-09-2022 06:28 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 06:20 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Yeaaaaaahhh...

Something is telling me that ESPN is going to have some B1G games too.

Prediction: if ESPN truly does lose the Big Ten contract, look for them to make a play for Cincinnati - either by obtaining rights to the entire Big XII (maybe unlikely), or by offering to move the Bearcats to the ACC. JMO.

Cincinnati is going to be the crux of great maneuvering. Sure.

LOL!

ESPN is going to move XII pieces to the ACC and PAC and take over the PACN.

Makes too much sense. The XII is in a TV market wasteland.

Cincy, WVU, UCF?, TCU, Houston? and Baylor to the ACC

Move some pieces out west Texas Tech, Okie State, Kansas, Iowa State, San Diego St, Houston?

Done

(08-09-2022 09:15 AM)GoWulfPak Wrote:  ESPN is going to move XII pieces to the ACC and PAC and take over the PACN.

Makes too much sense. The XII is in a TV market wasteland.

Cincy, WVU, UCF?, TCU, Houston? and Baylor to the ACC

Move some pieces out west Texas Tech, Okie State, Kansas, Iowa State, San Diego St, Houston?

Done

we’re not going along w/ this slapdash arrangement ...

UNCOLA

(08-09-2022 08:11 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Moving Cincinnati and WVU to the ACC would not be a game changer. And unless ESPN is suddenly paranoid there's no way that meaningfully closes the gap.

What it would do is blow up the math on dissolving the ACC. That would, absent B1G cooperative raiding, lead to more non-P2 invites than P2 invites in the ACC and halt the ability to dissolve the ACC. What that would signal is that the ACC would be frozen in place until the early 2030s and then we do ACC liquidation all over again but after suffering a $300-500m deficit in TV dollars compared to our competition and the requisite drain that will impose on all the programs in the conference. But then there's no GoR gymnastics necessary. You can just pick up your ball and leave.

Both could happen, neither could happen, but I'll say this: we can't use "conventional" math to argue against the addition of WVU and UC, then turn around and say "trust me, the money will be there" to justify moving ACC teams to the SEC.

Now, what you could say is this: ESPN may move a few ACC teams to the SEC, then back-fill the ACC with the choicest parts of the Big XII and/or Pac-10, etc. But that's not what I've been reading from you. You seem to be implying that ESPN wants to destroy their ACC gravy train and build up the Big XII, which they'll then have to bid against Fox to secure? That doesn't make sense, IMHO.

(08-09-2022 08:25 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 06:28 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 06:20 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Yeaaaaaahhh...

Something is telling me that ESPN is going to have some B1G games too.

Prediction: if ESPN truly does lose the Big Ten contract, look for them to make a play for Cincinnati - either by obtaining rights to the entire Big XII (maybe unlikely), or by offering to move the Bearcats to the ACC. JMO.

Cincinnati is going to be the crux of great maneuvering. Sure.

LOL!

Not the crux (not sure how you got that idea, but anyway) - I'm just saying they've gone from "no chance" to "on the table".

(08-09-2022 09:38 AM)green Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 09:15 AM)GoWulfPak Wrote:  ESPN is going to move XII pieces to the ACC and PAC and take over the PACN.

Makes too much sense. The XII is in a TV market wasteland.

Cincy, WVU, UCF?, TCU, Houston? and Baylor to the ACC

Move some pieces out west Texas Tech, Okie State, Kansas, Iowa State, San Diego St, Houston?

Done

we’re not going along w/ this slapdash arrangement ...

UNCOLA

Too many of you guys seem to want to take the attitude of no ACC expansion. What, are you going to "hold your breath" until your team can move to the SEC/B1G? Call me when you regain consciousness...

I like this news. If true one would think this development would force ESPN to invest in its contracted properties. This is big news for The ACC and probably even bigger news for The Big 12.

(08-09-2022 09:38 AM)green Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 09:15 AM)GoWulfPak Wrote:  ESPN is going to move XII pieces to the ACC and PAC and take over the PACN.

Makes too much sense. The XII is in a TV market wasteland.

Cincy, WVU, UCF?, TCU, Houston? and Baylor to the ACC

Move some pieces out west Texas Tech, Okie State, Kansas, Iowa State, San Diego St, Houston?

Done

we’re not going along w/ this slapdash arrangement ...

UNCOLA

You'll do what ESPN tells you to do....and like it.

(08-09-2022 09:51 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 08:11 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Moving Cincinnati and WVU to the ACC would not be a game changer. And unless ESPN is suddenly paranoid there's no way that meaningfully closes the gap.

What it would do is blow up the math on dissolving the ACC. That would, absent B1G cooperative raiding, lead to more non-P2 invites than P2 invites in the ACC and halt the ability to dissolve the ACC. What that would signal is that the ACC would be frozen in place until the early 2030s and then we do ACC liquidation all over again but after suffering a $300-500m deficit in TV dollars compared to our competition and the requisite drain that will impose on all the programs in the conference. But then there's no GoR gymnastics necessary. You can just pick up your ball and leave.

Both could happen, neither could happen, but I'll say this: we can't use "conventional" math to argue against the addition of WVU and UC, then turn around and say "trust me, the money will be there" to justify moving ACC teams to the SEC.

Now, what you could say is this: ESPN may move a few ACC teams to the SEC, then back-fill the ACC with the choicest parts of the Big XII and/or Pac-10, etc. But that's not what I've been reading from you. You seem to be implying that ESPN wants to destroy their ACC gravy train and build up the Big XII, which they'll then have to bid against Fox to secure? That doesn't make sense, IMHO.

Let's say ESPN is underpaying the ACC by $30m/yr/team (roughly double current payout), not including ND. Moving 8 ACC teams means ESPN has to pay $240m more a year for the same inventory of teams. But then again, you save $180m a year cutting loose the lower earners. And that's before you do playoff expansion, regional focused schedules, ditch the NCAA, etc. In reality, it's actually rosier than that because your biggest earners were the ones who went over the SEC. They made up way more than half of the value of the ACC. Way more than 2/3 even. So what is left is actually worth less than even the average math would suggest. Makes perfect financial sense to me.

(08-09-2022 06:33 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  ESPN can and will Let BIG go and Sign ND to 75M per year as an INDY! This will replace the BIG10 programming on ESPN.

ND will sign with NBC for that #$. It would take 80 mil or more for espn to even have a shot. ESPN will have to make due with ACC/B12/Pac. to be fille in with AAC and Belt.

(08-09-2022 09:57 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 09:38 AM)green Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 09:15 AM)GoWulfPak Wrote:  ESPN is going to move XII pieces to the ACC and PAC and take over the PACN.

Makes too much sense. The XII is in a TV market wasteland.

Cincy, WVU, UCF?, TCU, Houston? and Baylor to the ACC

Move some pieces out west Texas Tech, Okie State, Kansas, Iowa State, San Diego St, Houston?

Done

we’re not going along w/ this slapdash arrangement ...

UNCOLA

Too many of you guys seem to want to take the attitude of no ACC expansion. What, are you going to "hold your breath" until your team can move to the SEC/B1G? Call me when you regain consciousness...

I don't think that's the goal, although it admittedly could be the result. The goal of obstruction as I see it is preventing the ACC from taking any substantive steps towards a stable future, until those that want out are released. If a few schools are willing to tell their conference mates that they want out at the first opportunity and won't support any changes in the meantime, we may see left-behind schools ready to waive or settle the GoR at a reasonable amount so that they can move on to a more stable future while the other conferences are in flux as well. Waiting until the 2030s runs the risk that when your hostages are finally freed, the other conferences have stabilized and you have fewer desirable options.