It’s never been clear to me the extent to which the ACC’s revenue problems are due to terrible TV contracts and to what extent the problems are structural.

If the ACC could put its media contracts up for bids today, what could the ACC expect to get? Will the ACC be competitive when it can finally get out from under its lousy TV contracts? Can we wait this out, as hard as that now seems?

I wonder what an ACC tv deal would be today with ND football and Stanford for 16 full members

I would be shooting for NBC and streaming service such as AppleTV who is currently working with MLB broadcasting games. At some point I think they would like to get into sports especially college football, and NBC has the network the question is would they actually get into the game full time beside airing ND games???

(06-30-2022 09:39 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  It’s never been clear to me the extent to which the ACC’s revenue problems are due to terrible TV contracts and to what extent the problems are structural.

If the ACC could put its media contracts up for bids today, what could the ACC expect to get? Will the ACC be competitive when it can finally get out from under its lousy TV contracts? Can we wait this out, as hard as that now seems?

I have provided some information on this regard in other threads.
The ACC's problems are mostly structural, and that is what drives the terrible contracts.

The ACC is the smallest schools of the P5 with average enrollment s of around 27k students. Compare that to the SEC and BIG 10 with average enrollments closer to 45k-50k students. Assuming these numbers are reasonably proportional to the relative sizes of fanbases and the ACC will always be valued 30 to 50 % less than the SEC and BIG. Based on enrollment alone the ACC should be last in the money. By the way, this would directly apply to those of you who think streaming games will be a savior. Half of the ACCs schools would take severe revenue hits if games go to a pay per view streaming model.

This problem can only be solved by some schools drastically increasing their enrollments or adding large schools. Think UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Oregon, UW, basically schools with minimum enrollments of 40+k.

These numbers are important because TV contracts chase eyeballs. The enrollments can be seen as proxies for the inelastic demand to watch a particular school. Elastic demand only exists for schools performing well and can vanish once the good times end. These enrollments also factor into alumni giving. Statefan has provided excellent analysis in other threads on how school endowment size can be used as a proxy for school capability to buy program success, as well as soft power advertising for bringing in talent. I think the only schools with massive endowments are unc, duke, and Miami, but I would need to conduct more research to confirm.

The next structural problem the ACC faces is reactionary leadership that failed to learn from the Big East. The leaderships at various schools have not aligned their athletic visions with each other under the ACC. The SEC and BIG moved first to the football first model and are reaping the benefits. Too many ACC schools have split visions either wanting basketball first (uva, unc, duke, su?), football first (cu, fsu, Miami), or naively assuming they can balance the two (NC state, gt, VT, ul). These split visions prevent a cohesive league and we can see the results in relatively uncompetitive nature of ACC sports being dominated by a few teams that are all in on their desired sports.

While the ACC did have the largest market reach of the conference extending from Miami to Boston. The latest move by the BIG will have nullified that advantage. Not that the ACC made much use of it.

Because of these structural disadvantages, and poor leadership judgement favoring nepotistic regional contracts. The ACC is now on it death clock represented by the GoR. It will likely implode as Schools have no cohesive vision, which will drive them to chase their own desired ends.

By the way, chickens may have finally come home to roost for ND. The BIG's expansion, may have effectively erased any benefit ND would have brought to it's conference and taken away one if it's primary west coast rivals. ND can now only look to ESPN and SEC if it wants to be apart of where big brand CFP is going.

According to the media value numbers that JRSEC put out, the current average value of the SEC (without UT or OU) is $46.6M - and their latest contract would pay an average of about $40M. That means SEC teams are actually being underpaid by about $6.6M/yr.

Using his numbers, the average value of the ACC is $32.2M - but the current contract only pays an average of $17M over its lifetime. Even if you ignore the first few low-paying years of the ACC contract, from here on out the average payout is just $23.7M. In other words, the ACC is being underpaid by about $9M per team per year!

(07-01-2022 07:53 AM)AeroWolf Wrote:  

(06-30-2022 09:39 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  It’s never been clear to me the extent to which the ACC’s revenue problems are due to terrible TV contracts and to what extent the problems are structural.

If the ACC could put its media contracts up for bids today, what could the ACC expect to get? Will the ACC be competitive when it can finally get out from under its lousy TV contracts? Can we wait this out, as hard as that now seems?

I have provided some information on this regard in other threads.
The ACC's problems are mostly structural, and that is what drives the terrible contracts.

The ACC is the smallest schools of the P5 with average enrollment s of around 27k students. Compare that to the SEC and BIG 10 with average enrollments closer to 45k-50k students. Assuming these numbers are reasonably proportional to the relative sizes of fanbases and the ACC will always be valued 30 to 50 % less than the SEC and BIG. Based on enrollment alone the ACC should be last in the money. By the way, this would directly apply to those of you who think streaming games will be a savior. Half of the ACCs schools would take severe revenue hits if games go to a pay per view streaming model.

This problem can only be solved by some schools drastically increasing their enrollments or adding large schools. Think UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Oregon, UW, basically schools with minimum enrollments of 40+k.

These numbers are important because TV contracts chase eyeballs. The enrollments can be seen as proxies for the inelastic demand to watch a particular school. Elastic demand only exists for schools performing well and can vanish once the good times end. These enrollments also factor into alumni giving. Statefan has provided excellent analysis in other threads on how school endowment size can be used as a proxy for school capability to buy program success, as well as soft power advertising for bringing in talent. I think the only schools with massive endowments are unc, duke, and Miami, but I would need to conduct more research to confirm.

The next structural problem the ACC faces is reactionary leadership that failed to learn from the Big East. The leaderships at various schools have not aligned their athletic visions with each other under the ACC. The SEC and BIG moved first to the football first model and are reaping the benefits. Too many ACC schools have split visions either wanting basketball first (uva, unc, duke, su?), football first (cu, fsu, Miami), or naively assuming they can balance the two (NC state, gt, VT, ul). These split visions prevent a cohesive league and we can see the results in relatively uncompetitive nature of ACC sports being dominated by a few teams that are all in on their desired sports.

While the ACC did have the largest market reach of the conference extending from Miami to Boston. The latest move by the BIG will have nullified that advantage. Not that the ACC made much use of it.

Because of these structural disadvantages, and poor leadership judgement favoring nepotistic regional contracts. The ACC is now on it death clock represented by the GoR. It will likely implode as Schools have no cohesive vision, which will drive them to chase their own desired ends.

By the way, chickens may have finally come home to roost for ND. The BIG's expansion, may have effectively erased any benefit ND would have brought to it's conference and taken away one if it's primary west coast rivals. ND can now only look to ESPN and SEC if it wants to be apart of where big brand CFP is going.

I think that ND is going to join the Big Ten and buy its way out of the ACC.

That may be sooner than later, too.

In retrospect, I think that Jack Swabrick's comments about picking one of two Suns to orbit was his way of preparing ND fans for joining the Big Ten.

(06-23-2022 09:23 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-23-2022 03:00 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-23-2022 01:15 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-23-2022 01:06 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Neither is going to happen. We are stuck with the status quo until the GOR is no longer enforceable.

Complaining about it gets you exactly nothing.

BROKEN RECORD

THERE YOU HAVE IT

Neither, as in:

1) ND football is not joining the ACC.

2) The deal between the ACC and ND will not be abrogated by either party.


NOW YOU HAVE IT

ND football will stay indy until 2036, at least.

UNAMBIGUOUS

DEPENDS ON WHAT DAY OF THE WEEK IT IS

(07-01-2022 10:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 07:53 AM)AeroWolf Wrote:  

(06-30-2022 09:39 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  It’s never been clear to me the extent to which the ACC’s revenue problems are due to terrible TV contracts and to what extent the problems are structural.

If the ACC could put its media contracts up for bids today, what could the ACC expect to get? Will the ACC be competitive when it can finally get out from under its lousy TV contracts? Can we wait this out, as hard as that now seems?

I have provided some information on this regard in other threads.
The ACC's problems are mostly structural, and that is what drives the terrible contracts.

The ACC is the smallest schools of the P5 with average enrollment s of around 27k students. Compare that to the SEC and BIG 10 with average enrollments closer to 45k-50k students. Assuming these numbers are reasonably proportional to the relative sizes of fanbases and the ACC will always be valued 30 to 50 % less than the SEC and BIG. Based on enrollment alone the ACC should be last in the money. By the way, this would directly apply to those of you who think streaming games will be a savior. Half of the ACCs schools would take severe revenue hits if games go to a pay per view streaming model.

This problem can only be solved by some schools drastically increasing their enrollments or adding large schools. Think UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Oregon, UW, basically schools with minimum enrollments of 40+k.

These numbers are important because TV contracts chase eyeballs. The enrollments can be seen as proxies for the inelastic demand to watch a particular school. Elastic demand only exists for schools performing well and can vanish once the good times end. These enrollments also factor into alumni giving. Statefan has provided excellent analysis in other threads on how school endowment size can be used as a proxy for school capability to buy program success, as well as soft power advertising for bringing in talent. I think the only schools with massive endowments are unc, duke, and Miami, but I would need to conduct more research to confirm.

The next structural problem the ACC faces is reactionary leadership that failed to learn from the Big East. The leaderships at various schools have not aligned their athletic visions with each other under the ACC. The SEC and BIG moved first to the football first model and are reaping the benefits. Too many ACC schools have split visions either wanting basketball first (uva, unc, duke, su?), football first (cu, fsu, Miami), or naively assuming they can balance the two (NC state, gt, VT, ul). These split visions prevent a cohesive league and we can see the results in relatively uncompetitive nature of ACC sports being dominated by a few teams that are all in on their desired sports.

While the ACC did have the largest market reach of the conference extending from Miami to Boston. The latest move by the BIG will have nullified that advantage. Not that the ACC made much use of it.

Because of these structural disadvantages, and poor leadership judgement favoring nepotistic regional contracts. The ACC is now on it death clock represented by the GoR. It will likely implode as Schools have no cohesive vision, which will drive them to chase their own desired ends.

By the way, chickens may have finally come home to roost for ND. The BIG's expansion, may have effectively erased any benefit ND would have brought to it's conference and taken away one if it's primary west coast rivals. ND can now only look to ESPN and SEC if it wants to be apart of where big brand CFP is going.

I think that ND is going to join the Big Ten and buy its way out of the ACC.

That may be sooner than later, too.

In retrospect, I think that Jack Swabrick's comments about picking one of two Suns to orbit was his way of preparing ND fans for joining the Big Ten.

I think that depends on if FOX wants them. I am not sure that ND brings the necessary value anymore now that the BIG stretches coast to coast. ND no longer open any new markets. No new recruiting grounds,. ND is a small private religious school nature no longer relates to the BIG large land grant institutions. I think FOX and BIG would align more toward GT, UNC, UW, Cal, FSU, and UVA, and that is it. Those are large schools, Tier 1 research and academic schools, that open new markets and recruiting. ND offers only it's New England catholic fan base, which will tune in to watch college football anyways. I think ND has overplayed it independence to it's detriment and now may be stuck with the ACC heading into tier 2 sports.

(07-01-2022 11:08 AM)AeroWolf Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 10:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I think that ND is going to join the Big Ten and buy its way out of the ACC.

That may be sooner than later, too.

In retrospect, I think that Jack Swabrick's comments about picking one of two Suns to orbit was his way of preparing ND fans for joining the Big Ten.

I think that depends on if FOX wants them. I am not sure that ND brings the necessary value anymore now that the BIG stretches coast to coast. ND no longer open any new markets. No new recruiting grounds,. ND is a small private religious school nature no longer relates to the BIG large land grant institutions. I think FOX and BIG would align more toward GT, UNC, UW, Cal, FSU, and UVA, and that is it. Those are large schools, Tier 1 research and academic schools, that open new markets and recruiting. ND offers only it's New England catholic fan base, which will tune in to watch college football anyways. I think ND has overplayed it independence to it's detriment and now may be stuck with the ACC heading into tier 2 sports.

Try to convince yourself if you wish, but... Fox wants Notre Dame. So does ESPN, but they may lose out. The good news: without Notre Dame, that makes Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville somewhat more valuable to ESPN (and it opens the door for Cincinnati and West Virginia as ACC expansion candidates, too - IMHO).

There WILL be a third power conference - a P3 - and the ACC is likely to be the core of that group. The question in my mind is: how much will it pay (in total)?
$50M = not enough
$60M = enough for some, not others
$70M = now you're starting to get my attention
$80M = probably puts an end to roaming eyes for now.

(07-01-2022 11:30 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 11:08 AM)AeroWolf Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 10:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I think that ND is going to join the Big Ten and buy its way out of the ACC.

That may be sooner than later, too.

In retrospect, I think that Jack Swabrick's comments about picking one of two Suns to orbit was his way of preparing ND fans for joining the Big Ten.

I think that depends on if FOX wants them. I am not sure that ND brings the necessary value anymore now that the BIG stretches coast to coast. ND no longer open any new markets. No new recruiting grounds,. ND is a small private religious school nature no longer relates to the BIG large land grant institutions. I think FOX and BIG would align more toward GT, UNC, UW, Cal, FSU, and UVA, and that is it. Those are large schools, Tier 1 research and academic schools, that open new markets and recruiting. ND offers only it's New England catholic fan base, which will tune in to watch college football anyways. I think ND has overplayed it independence to it's detriment and now may be stuck with the ACC heading into tier 2 sports.

Try to convince yourself if you wish, but... Fox wants Notre Dame. So does ESPN, but they may lose out. The good news: without Notre Dame, that makes Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville somewhat more valuable to ESPN (and it opens the door for Cincinnati and West Virginia as ACC expansion candidates, too - IMHO).

There WILL be a third power conference - a P3 - and the ACC is likely to be the core of that group. The question in my mind is: how much will it pay (in total)?
$50M = not enough
$60M = enough for some, not others
$70M = now you're starting to get my attention
$80M = probably puts an end to roaming eyes for now.

post of day, hokie ...
suppose disney offers 75%, 85% ...
doesn’t match ...
but approaches ...

DON’T THUMB YOUR NOSE AT THE BOSS

There's a lot of confident predictions and projections in this thread. The truth is that the future of college sports is damned hard to predict even for the real experts and the real experts aren't posting here.

Let's have some humility.

(07-01-2022 07:53 AM)AeroWolf Wrote:  

(06-30-2022 09:39 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  It’s never been clear to me the extent to which the ACC’s revenue problems are due to terrible TV contracts and to what extent the problems are structural.

If the ACC could put its media contracts up for bids today, what could the ACC expect to get? Will the ACC be competitive when it can finally get out from under its lousy TV contracts? Can we wait this out, as hard as that now seems?

I have provided some information on this regard in other threads.
The ACC's problems are mostly structural, and that is what drives the terrible contracts.

The ACC is the smallest schools of the P5 with average enrollment s of around 27k students. Compare that to the SEC and BIG 10 with average enrollments closer to 45k-50k students. Assuming these numbers are reasonably proportional to the relative sizes of fanbases and the ACC will always be valued 30 to 50 % less than the SEC and BIG. Based on enrollment alone the ACC should be last in the money. By the way, this would directly apply to those of you who think streaming games will be a savior. Half of the ACCs schools would take severe revenue hits if games go to a pay per view streaming model.

This problem can only be solved by some schools drastically increasing their enrollments or adding large schools. Think UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Oregon, UW, basically schools with minimum enrollments of 40+k.

These numbers are important because TV contracts chase eyeballs. The enrollments can be seen as proxies for the inelastic demand to watch a particular school. Elastic demand only exists for schools performing well and can vanish once the good times end. These enrollments also factor into alumni giving. Statefan has provided excellent analysis in other threads on how school endowment size can be used as a proxy for school capability to buy program success, as well as soft power advertising for bringing in talent. I think the only schools with massive endowments are unc, duke, and Miami, but I would need to conduct more research to confirm.

The next structural problem the ACC faces is reactionary leadership that failed to learn from the Big East. The leaderships at various schools have not aligned their athletic visions with each other under the ACC. The SEC and BIG moved first to the football first model and are reaping the benefits. Too many ACC schools have split visions either wanting basketball first (uva, unc, duke, su?), football first (cu, fsu, Miami), or naively assuming they can balance the two (NC state, gt, VT, ul). These split visions prevent a cohesive league and we can see the results in relatively uncompetitive nature of ACC sports being dominated by a few teams that are all in on their desired sports.

While the ACC did have the largest market reach of the conference extending from Miami to Boston. The latest move by the BIG will have nullified that advantage. Not that the ACC made much use of it.

Because of these structural disadvantages, and poor leadership judgement favoring nepotistic regional contracts. The ACC is now on it death clock represented by the GoR. It will likely implode as Schools have no cohesive vision, which will drive them to chase their own desired ends.

By the way, chickens may have finally come home to roost for ND. The BIG's expansion, may have effectively erased any benefit ND would have brought to it's conference and taken away one if it's primary west coast rivals. ND can now only look to ESPN and SEC if it wants to be apart of where big brand CFP is going.

Still yanks My chain that last year, We sat on Our hands while the Big 12 came in and grabbed Cincinnati, UCF, Houston . We have no vision on growing the population centers into our conference. Had the Big 12 not found that lifeline, We might have either Baylor , Kansas into the fold.

(07-01-2022 11:30 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 11:08 AM)AeroWolf Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 10:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I think that ND is going to join the Big Ten and buy its way out of the ACC.

That may be sooner than later, too.

In retrospect, I think that Jack Swabrick's comments about picking one of two Suns to orbit was his way of preparing ND fans for joining the Big Ten.

I think that depends on if FOX wants them. I am not sure that ND brings the necessary value anymore now that the BIG stretches coast to coast. ND no longer open any new markets. No new recruiting grounds,. ND is a small private religious school nature no longer relates to the BIG large land grant institutions. I think FOX and BIG would align more toward GT, UNC, UW, Cal, FSU, and UVA, and that is it. Those are large schools, Tier 1 research and academic schools, that open new markets and recruiting. ND offers only it's New England catholic fan base, which will tune in to watch college football anyways. I think ND has overplayed it independence to it's detriment and now may be stuck with the ACC heading into tier 2 sports.

Try to convince yourself if you wish, but... Fox wants Notre Dame. So does ESPN, but they may lose out. The good news: without Notre Dame, that makes Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville somewhat more valuable to ESPN (and it opens the door for Cincinnati and West Virginia as ACC expansion candidates, too - IMHO).

There WILL be a third power conference - a P3 - and the ACC is likely to be the core of that group. The question in my mind is: how much will it pay (in total)?
$50M = not enough
$60M = enough for some, not others
$70M = now you're starting to get my attention
$80M = probably puts an end to roaming eyes for now.

I don’t think Cincy & WV adds enough for that much of a pay raise. To have a shot at that I think the ACC has to go west. The B1G now stretches from coast to coast, the ACC will have to as well. It’s sad but true.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

(07-02-2022 09:13 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 07:53 AM)AeroWolf Wrote:  

(06-30-2022 09:39 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  It’s never been clear to me the extent to which the ACC’s revenue problems are due to terrible TV contracts and to what extent the problems are structural.

If the ACC could put its media contracts up for bids today, what could the ACC expect to get? Will the ACC be competitive when it can finally get out from under its lousy TV contracts? Can we wait this out, as hard as that now seems?

I have provided some information on this regard in other threads.
The ACC's problems are mostly structural, and that is what drives the terrible contracts.

The ACC is the smallest schools of the P5 with average enrollment s of around 27k students. Compare that to the SEC and BIG 10 with average enrollments closer to 45k-50k students. Assuming these numbers are reasonably proportional to the relative sizes of fanbases and the ACC will always be valued 30 to 50 % less than the SEC and BIG. Based on enrollment alone the ACC should be last in the money. By the way, this would directly apply to those of you who think streaming games will be a savior. Half of the ACCs schools would take severe revenue hits if games go to a pay per view streaming model.

This problem can only be solved by some schools drastically increasing their enrollments or adding large schools. Think UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Oregon, UW, basically schools with minimum enrollments of 40+k.

These numbers are important because TV contracts chase eyeballs. The enrollments can be seen as proxies for the inelastic demand to watch a particular school. Elastic demand only exists for schools performing well and can vanish once the good times end. These enrollments also factor into alumni giving. Statefan has provided excellent analysis in other threads on how school endowment size can be used as a proxy for school capability to buy program success, as well as soft power advertising for bringing in talent. I think the only schools with massive endowments are unc, duke, and Miami, but I would need to conduct more research to confirm.

The next structural problem the ACC faces is reactionary leadership that failed to learn from the Big East. The leaderships at various schools have not aligned their athletic visions with each other under the ACC. The SEC and BIG moved first to the football first model and are reaping the benefits. Too many ACC schools have split visions either wanting basketball first (uva, unc, duke, su?), football first (cu, fsu, Miami), or naively assuming they can balance the two (NC state, gt, VT, ul). These split visions prevent a cohesive league and we can see the results in relatively uncompetitive nature of ACC sports being dominated by a few teams that are all in on their desired sports.

While the ACC did have the largest market reach of the conference extending from Miami to Boston. The latest move by the BIG will have nullified that advantage. Not that the ACC made much use of it.

Because of these structural disadvantages, and poor leadership judgement favoring nepotistic regional contracts. The ACC is now on it death clock represented by the GoR. It will likely implode as Schools have no cohesive vision, which will drive them to chase their own desired ends.

By the way, chickens may have finally come home to roost for ND. The BIG's expansion, may have effectively erased any benefit ND would have brought to it's conference and taken away one if it's primary west coast rivals. ND can now only look to ESPN and SEC if it wants to be apart of where big brand CFP is going.

Still yanks My chain that last year, We sat on Our hands while the Big 12 came in and grabbed Cincinnati, UCF, Houston . We have no vision on growing the population centers into our conference. Had the Big 12 not found that lifeline, We might have either Baylor , Kansas into the fold.

They haven't actually joined yet...

(07-01-2022 10:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I think that ND is going to join the Big Ten and buy its way out of the ACC.

That may be sooner than later, too.

In retrospect, I think that Jack Swabrick's comments about picking one of two Suns to orbit was his way of preparing ND fans for joining the Big Ten.

I suspect that you're right.

It's not a Midwest Big Ten any more. It just became a major coast-to-coast league. It has something to offer a school with a proud history of coast-to-coast barnstorming and coast-to-coast fan support.

I notice many ND fans now sound accepting of the shift.

About the two suns pulling everything else into orbits: I had a similar thought when Dabo Swinney suggested that college football should 'blow it all up and start over.' You could read that as a sports leader preparing fans.

(07-01-2022 10:04 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  According to the media value numbers that JRSEC put out, the current average value of the SEC (without UT or OU) is $46.6M - and their latest contract would pay an average of about $40M. That means SEC teams are actually being underpaid by about $6.6M/yr.

Using his numbers, the average value of the ACC is $32.2M - but the current contract only pays an average of $17M over its lifetime. Even if you ignore the first few low-paying years of the ACC contract, from here on out the average payout is just $23.7M. In other words, the ACC is being underpaid by about $9M per team per year!

Those are 2019-20 numbers and a bit more reliable than last year's which were COVID skewed. The SEC's new contract replaces CBS's T1 deal jumping from 55 million to well over the 307 million CBS offered. The T2 and T3 were reworked but no details on the amount. The difference will be a little over 20 million more when the contract kicks in. The SEC made 56.7 million per school in the COVID year and the totals did not include the 20 million loan each received against the first full year of the new contract which is expected to be a little over 75 million per school. When OU and UT come on board that will jump to around 90 million.

Now while that new contract calculation which doesn't include escalators kicking in skews your calculations on the SEC, the numbers for the ACC should be about right. I doubt we will have solid numbers on the SEC until the B1G is done. No need giving them a target.

(07-02-2022 10:58 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-02-2022 09:13 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 07:53 AM)AeroWolf Wrote:  

(06-30-2022 09:39 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  It’s never been clear to me the extent to which the ACC’s revenue problems are due to terrible TV contracts and to what extent the problems are structural.

If the ACC could put its media contracts up for bids today, what could the ACC expect to get? Will the ACC be competitive when it can finally get out from under its lousy TV contracts? Can we wait this out, as hard as that now seems?

I have provided some information on this regard in other threads.
The ACC's problems are mostly structural, and that is what drives the terrible contracts.

The ACC is the smallest schools of the P5 with average enrollment s of around 27k students. Compare that to the SEC and BIG 10 with average enrollments closer to 45k-50k students. Assuming these numbers are reasonably proportional to the relative sizes of fanbases and the ACC will always be valued 30 to 50 % less than the SEC and BIG. Based on enrollment alone the ACC should be last in the money. By the way, this would directly apply to those of you who think streaming games will be a savior. Half of the ACCs schools would take severe revenue hits if games go to a pay per view streaming model.

This problem can only be solved by some schools drastically increasing their enrollments or adding large schools. Think UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Oregon, UW, basically schools with minimum enrollments of 40+k.

These numbers are important because TV contracts chase eyeballs. The enrollments can be seen as proxies for the inelastic demand to watch a particular school. Elastic demand only exists for schools performing well and can vanish once the good times end. These enrollments also factor into alumni giving. Statefan has provided excellent analysis in other threads on how school endowment size can be used as a proxy for school capability to buy program success, as well as soft power advertising for bringing in talent. I think the only schools with massive endowments are unc, duke, and Miami, but I would need to conduct more research to confirm.

The next structural problem the ACC faces is reactionary leadership that failed to learn from the Big East. The leaderships at various schools have not aligned their athletic visions with each other under the ACC. The SEC and BIG moved first to the football first model and are reaping the benefits. Too many ACC schools have split visions either wanting basketball first (uva, unc, duke, su?), football first (cu, fsu, Miami), or naively assuming they can balance the two (NC state, gt, VT, ul). These split visions prevent a cohesive league and we can see the results in relatively uncompetitive nature of ACC sports being dominated by a few teams that are all in on their desired sports.

While the ACC did have the largest market reach of the conference extending from Miami to Boston. The latest move by the BIG will have nullified that advantage. Not that the ACC made much use of it.

Because of these structural disadvantages, and poor leadership judgement favoring nepotistic regional contracts. The ACC is now on it death clock represented by the GoR. It will likely implode as Schools have no cohesive vision, which will drive them to chase their own desired ends.

By the way, chickens may have finally come home to roost for ND. The BIG's expansion, may have effectively erased any benefit ND would have brought to it's conference and taken away one if it's primary west coast rivals. ND can now only look to ESPN and SEC if it wants to be apart of where big brand CFP is going.

Still yanks My chain that last year, We sat on Our hands while the Big 12 came in and grabbed Cincinnati, UCF, Houston . We have no vision on growing the population centers into our conference. Had the Big 12 not found that lifeline, We might have either Baylor , Kansas into the fold.

They haven't actually joined yet...

Yep, why I say the time is ripe for the pickings