The second reading of this data with a more complete data set shows the 1Q GDP shrank more than originally estimated last month.

Not surging!

I'm finding that pretty much EVERYTHING with Biden in charge is worse than expected.

doesn't matter, market is up 2%

The local steel mill here currently has the lines shut down due to lack of orders. Recession, I hear you coming.

(05-26-2022 10:30 AM)fsquid Wrote:  doesn't matter, market is up 2%

hang around

But, but....it's Putin's fault.

(05-26-2022 10:17 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The second reading of this data with a more complete data set shows the 1Q GDP shrank more than originally estimated last month.

This is why Im surprised by what I keep hearing from the experts. They keep saying there is no recession likley this year. A recession is officially 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Because thats how you officially define a recession----a recession is always going to be identified in retrospect. In other words, by the time its "official"----Americans have already been in recession for half a year.

My guess is if the first quarter was negative (and was even more negative than we originally thought)---and the consumer's perception of the economic conditions is worse today than it was in the first quarter---its hard for me to see how the second quarter (which is already two thirds complete) is going to avoid being another negative print. I suspect we are already 5 months into a recession---its just not official yet.

(05-26-2022 10:35 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(05-26-2022 10:30 AM)fsquid Wrote:  doesn't matter, market is up 2%

hang around

Wait until the earnings misses and warnings start coming. New home sales have already rolled over---thats usually a leading indicator.

(05-26-2022 12:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-26-2022 10:17 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The second reading of this data with a more complete data set shows the 1Q GDP shrank more than originally estimated last month.

This is why Im surprised by what I keep hearing from the experts. They keep saying there is no recession likley this year. A recession is officially 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Because thats how you officially define a recession----a recession is always going to be identified in retrospect. In other words, by the time its "official"----Americans have already been in recession for half a year.

My guess is if the first quarter was negative (and was even more negative than we originally thought)---and the consumer's perception of the economic conditions is worse today than it was in the first quarter---its hard for me to see how the second quarter (which is already two thirds complete) is going to avoid being another negative print. I suspect we are already 5 months into a recession---its just not official yet.

yep

Will what we know as "Hoovervilles" pop up in our cities and will they be known as Bidenvilles? I see it in the stars, they started early in LA, Philly, NY, etc. Yep, they're mostly in Demoncraptically run cities.