(05-05-2022 09:33 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 09:07 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 08:57 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 08:45 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Hurts the poor the most.

And makes them more needy on government. That has always been the plan. Cause a problem, then come in with the white horse and save the day by giving pshit away and saying the evil successful citizens aren't paying "their fair share".

For 2 years, the "poor" was middle class with the government giving out "free" cash. Let's be honest, there weren't really many "poor" people during the pandemic. Now that money has dried up and inflation hits at the same time.

This is going to just keep getting uglier.

Now the working (blue collar) class and lower level professional middle class (corporate non-management level employees with degrees) are going to be scrapping paycheck to paycheck just survive and the poor is going to become a total welfare state. Not sure what will become of the upper-middle class. My guess is those that can hold onto that will be fine, but it will substantially shrink in number, making all the $300k-$700k houses that have been selling like hotcakes for 2 years utterly worthless.

Disagree with worthless. It will kill the housing market but they will be going more around their actual value. Someone will be looking to buy them up and rent them out at minimum.

Correct. I suspect in retrospect they will find that roughly March of this year marked the high point of the current housing boom. Mortgage rates for a 30 year mortgage are now around 5.5%. That will probably be closer to 7% by the end of the year. Mortgage applications have fallen off the table. Low inventory is the only thing supporting housing right now, and that will probably change once potential sellers realize their home will be worth less next month than it is today.

(05-05-2022 10:02 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 09:33 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 09:07 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 08:57 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 08:45 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Hurts the poor the most.

And makes them more needy on government. That has always been the plan. Cause a problem, then come in with the white horse and save the day by giving pshit away and saying the evil successful citizens aren't paying "their fair share".

For 2 years, the "poor" was middle class with the government giving out "free" cash. Let's be honest, there weren't really many "poor" people during the pandemic. Now that money has dried up and inflation hits at the same time.

This is going to just keep getting uglier.

Now the working (blue collar) class and lower level professional middle class (corporate non-management level employees with degrees) are going to be scrapping paycheck to paycheck just survive and the poor is going to become a total welfare state. Not sure what will become of the upper-middle class. My guess is those that can hold onto that will be fine, but it will substantially shrink in number, making all the $300k-$700k houses that have been selling like hotcakes for 2 years utterly worthless.

Disagree with worthless. It will kill the housing market but they will be going more around their actual value. Someone will be looking to buy them up and rent them out at minimum.

Rents are currently higher than mortgage payments. Rent prices NEVER go down. If housing values decrease it will make even less sense to rent over buying. There is going to be a bottle neck of vacant homes and apartment units in coming years and there is currently a ton of new construction coming out of the ground. This will be worse than 2008-2012.

1. Rents are not anywhere near as high as mortgage payments. May be true with older mortgages, but if you bought a house right now you wouldn't come anywhere close to covering it by renting it out.

2. Rent prices will indeed come down if the government doesn't step in to subsidize through tax credits, expansion of Section 8, or another new program. People need to live and their income is finite. Maybe in a hot urban center you can simply cram more single, naive, masochistic 20-somethings into the same shoebox and never lower the rent, but if you are talking about single family houses, if they sit empty long enough generating no revenue, the rent goes down.

(05-05-2022 11:30 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 10:02 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 09:33 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 09:07 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 08:57 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  And makes them more needy on government. That has always been the plan. Cause a problem, then come in with the white horse and save the day by giving pshit away and saying the evil successful citizens aren't paying "their fair share".

For 2 years, the "poor" was middle class with the government giving out "free" cash. Let's be honest, there weren't really many "poor" people during the pandemic. Now that money has dried up and inflation hits at the same time.

This is going to just keep getting uglier.

Now the working (blue collar) class and lower level professional middle class (corporate non-management level employees with degrees) are going to be scrapping paycheck to paycheck just survive and the poor is going to become a total welfare state. Not sure what will become of the upper-middle class. My guess is those that can hold onto that will be fine, but it will substantially shrink in number, making all the $300k-$700k houses that have been selling like hotcakes for 2 years utterly worthless.

Disagree with worthless. It will kill the housing market but they will be going more around their actual value. Someone will be looking to buy them up and rent them out at minimum.

Rents are currently higher than mortgage payments. Rent prices NEVER go down. If housing values decrease it will make even less sense to rent over buying. There is going to be a bottle neck of vacant homes and apartment units in coming years and there is currently a ton of new construction coming out of the ground. This will be worse than 2008-2012.

1. Rents are not anywhere near as high as mortgage payments. May be true with older mortgages, but if you bought a house right now you wouldn't come anywhere close to covering it by renting it out.

2. Rent prices will indeed come down if the government doesn't step in to subsidize through tax credits, expansion of Section 8, or another new program. People need to live and their income is finite. Maybe in a hot urban center you can simply cram more single, naive, masochistic 20-somethings into the same shoebox and never lower the rent, but if you are talking about single family houses, if they sit empty long enough generating no revenue, the rent goes down.

In every market there is a price point in which properties are not considered a rental. Properties considered typical rentals have rents higher than the mortgage payment would be. If they weren't there would be no such thing as rental properties. Why would an investor buy a property which costs more to buy than the return gives? An most large apartment complexes are owned by corporations and they would much rather file BK than lower rents. With mortgage rates at 6%+ builders will have to give away finished homes and those that had deals fall through. That is when the values will decline, because builders have to build. They get paid to build. Selling only allows them to build more homes. It will be a mess and new home sales around me put on the breaks about a month ago when the rates went from 3.5% to 5% overnight. It will only get worse and I'm sure there are borrowers currently that didn't close before their "lock" ended and weren't in budget to close with the new rate. Spec homes in builder subdivisions are the first sign of "blood" in the housing market. Builders don't like making payments on their builds.

(05-05-2022 11:40 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 11:30 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 10:02 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 09:33 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 09:07 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  For 2 years, the "poor" was middle class with the government giving out "free" cash. Let's be honest, there weren't really many "poor" people during the pandemic. Now that money has dried up and inflation hits at the same time.

This is going to just keep getting uglier.

Now the working (blue collar) class and lower level professional middle class (corporate non-management level employees with degrees) are going to be scrapping paycheck to paycheck just survive and the poor is going to become a total welfare state. Not sure what will become of the upper-middle class. My guess is those that can hold onto that will be fine, but it will substantially shrink in number, making all the $300k-$700k houses that have been selling like hotcakes for 2 years utterly worthless.

Disagree with worthless. It will kill the housing market but they will be going more around their actual value. Someone will be looking to buy them up and rent them out at minimum.

Rents are currently higher than mortgage payments. Rent prices NEVER go down. If housing values decrease it will make even less sense to rent over buying. There is going to be a bottle neck of vacant homes and apartment units in coming years and there is currently a ton of new construction coming out of the ground. This will be worse than 2008-2012.

1. Rents are not anywhere near as high as mortgage payments. May be true with older mortgages, but if you bought a house right now you wouldn't come anywhere close to covering it by renting it out.

2. Rent prices will indeed come down if the government doesn't step in to subsidize through tax credits, expansion of Section 8, or another new program. People need to live and their income is finite. Maybe in a hot urban center you can simply cram more single, naive, masochistic 20-somethings into the same shoebox and never lower the rent, but if you are talking about single family houses, if they sit empty long enough generating no revenue, the rent goes down.

In every market there is a price point in which properties are not considered a rental. Properties considered typical rentals have rents higher than the mortgage payment would be. If they weren't there would be no such thing as rental properties. Why would an investor buy a property which costs more to buy than the return gives? An most large apartment complexes are owned by corporations and they would much rather file BK than lower rents. With mortgage rates at 6%+ builders will have to give away finished homes and those that had deals fall through. That is when the values will decline, because builders have to build. They get paid to build. Selling only allows them to build more homes. It will be a mess and new home sales around me put on the breaks about a month ago when the rates went from 3.5% to 5% overnight. It will only get worse and I'm sure there are borrowers currently that didn't close before their "lock" ended and weren't in budget to close with the new rate. Spec homes in builder subdivisions are the first sign of "blood" in the housing market. Builders don't like making payments on their builds.

Investors wouldn't buy a property which costs more to buy than the return gives. That was my point. I could probably rent my house for its mortgage payment (it would be close), but I bought it 15 years ago. You couldn't buy one now and rent it. That will accelerate the collapse. Rents are going up because there is a shortage... not because of a lack of housing, but because of the very fact that mortgages are more expensive. And with the cost of building right now, you can't build your way out of it because... you can't get enough rent to do so. They aren't investing to rent. They are investing because they think they can turn a profit selling tomorrow. Not sure if that is still the case anymore, but once it is clear it isn't, the Ponzi scheme collapses and someone is left holding the bag. Further, the ability to cash out equity to pay for the inflation ends. We saw this dance not too long ago.

There aren't really many "builder subdivisions" around here and there really haven't been any new ones since the early 2000s. Most of the city was subdivided/built in the 50s and 60s and most of the acreage parcels that remain are smaller (<10 acres) and become more owner subdivisions where they divide in to lots and sell the land to whoever or deed it to their children. They aren't large planned developments. I'm glad, because as you alluded, those are all going to turn to shite. I would avoid those regions like the plague.

A lot of people, companies, and banks are going to lose a lot of money.

(05-05-2022 11:59 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 11:40 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 11:30 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 10:02 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 09:33 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  Disagree with worthless. It will kill the housing market but they will be going more around their actual value. Someone will be looking to buy them up and rent them out at minimum.

Rents are currently higher than mortgage payments. Rent prices NEVER go down. If housing values decrease it will make even less sense to rent over buying. There is going to be a bottle neck of vacant homes and apartment units in coming years and there is currently a ton of new construction coming out of the ground. This will be worse than 2008-2012.

1. Rents are not anywhere near as high as mortgage payments. May be true with older mortgages, but if you bought a house right now you wouldn't come anywhere close to covering it by renting it out.

2. Rent prices will indeed come down if the government doesn't step in to subsidize through tax credits, expansion of Section 8, or another new program. People need to live and their income is finite. Maybe in a hot urban center you can simply cram more single, naive, masochistic 20-somethings into the same shoebox and never lower the rent, but if you are talking about single family houses, if they sit empty long enough generating no revenue, the rent goes down.

In every market there is a price point in which properties are not considered a rental. Properties considered typical rentals have rents higher than the mortgage payment would be. If they weren't there would be no such thing as rental properties. Why would an investor buy a property which costs more to buy than the return gives? An most large apartment complexes are owned by corporations and they would much rather file BK than lower rents. With mortgage rates at 6%+ builders will have to give away finished homes and those that had deals fall through. That is when the values will decline, because builders have to build. They get paid to build. Selling only allows them to build more homes. It will be a mess and new home sales around me put on the breaks about a month ago when the rates went from 3.5% to 5% overnight. It will only get worse and I'm sure there are borrowers currently that didn't close before their "lock" ended and weren't in budget to close with the new rate. Spec homes in builder subdivisions are the first sign of "blood" in the housing market. Builders don't like making payments on their builds.

Investors wouldn't buy a property which costs more to buy than the return gives. That was my point. I could probably rent my house for its mortgage payment (it would be close), but I bought it 15 years ago. You couldn't buy one now and rent it. That will accelerate the collapse. They aren't investing to rent. They are investing because they think they can turn a profit selling tomorrow. Not sure if that is still the case anymore, but once it is clear it isn't, the Ponzi scheme collapses and someone is left holding the bag. Further, the ability to cash out equity to pay for the inflation ends. We saw this dance not too long ago.

There aren't really many "builder subdivisions" around here and there really haven't been any new ones since the early 2000s. Most of the city was subdivided/built in the 50s and 60s and most of the acreage parcels that remain are smaller (<10 acres) and become more owner subdivisions where they divide in to lots and sell the land to whoever or deed it to their children. They aren't large planned developments. I'm glad, because as you alluded, those are all going to turn to shite. I would avoid those regions like the plague.

A lot of people, companies, and banks are going to lose a lot of money.

You don't live in a "typical" market. At 3.5% you could buy a house and rent it the next day for more than your mortgage payment in my market.

(05-05-2022 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 10:09 AM)mlb Wrote:  My issue is that we should have been raising the interest rates years ago. Neither party truly understands things, but the economy was admittedly going great during the Trump years and he pushed to keep the interest rates artificially low which gave us no room to work should we hit a recession. Now we have all this stimulus spending from both parties and the war causing significant inflation so we have to raise interest rates, while at the same time staring a recession in the face.

The fed raised rates under Trump to levels that were not seen since prior to Obama. Trump correctly kept the pressure on the feds to keep rates low, because they were jumping at every indicator to raise rates and that could have stifled the economy. In the end, inflation was kept in check, and the economy was on a heater. So the rates under Trump were appropriate.

When Covid hit, they lowered the rates all the way down. Then the fed shoved their heads up their asses and did nothing for 18 months after the election, even though the economy was clearly on a heater prior to the election, and the Biden* was spending trillions on people not to work. And even after that, the feds kept their heads up their asses. The inflation took off, but from the echo chamber of their large intestine we heard something that sounded like "transitory". Then inflation kept going up.....and up....and up.......and then we get a quarter where we have a drop in gdp and are entering a recession and then the fed pulls their heads out of their asses and start raising rates, which will shove us into a recession/depression.

What the fed did under Biden* in no way matched what they did under Trump. Under Trump, they literally micro-analyzed every indicator to say they probably needed another rate hike. Under Biden* they did jack diddly sh*t. Had the rates been back to Trump levels in Q1 of 2021, and had the fed acted sooner, and had the idiot may Pete Buttjig not be so incompetant, and had Biden* not been a dumb*** on energy, all of this could have been avoided.

In no way do I disagree that the Fed acted too slow as we were coming out of COVID and they needed to raise rates. But even during the Trump years the Fed was too slow to act. The transitory inflation was a joke, and even if it was the case then you could have acted to lower once those transitory factors passed. Now we are all going to pay for all the cash that has been created and thrown into the economy. That goes on both parties. As a libertarian, I've been against almost everything that has gone on since 2008. Should have let those banks that were overleveraged crash and burn. I'm tired of main street bailing out wall street.

(05-05-2022 12:18 PM)mlb Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 10:09 AM)mlb Wrote:  My issue is that we should have been raising the interest rates years ago. Neither party truly understands things, but the economy was admittedly going great during the Trump years and he pushed to keep the interest rates artificially low which gave us no room to work should we hit a recession. Now we have all this stimulus spending from both parties and the war causing significant inflation so we have to raise interest rates, while at the same time staring a recession in the face.

The fed raised rates under Trump to levels that were not seen since prior to Obama. Trump correctly kept the pressure on the feds to keep rates low, because they were jumping at every indicator to raise rates and that could have stifled the economy. In the end, inflation was kept in check, and the economy was on a heater. So the rates under Trump were appropriate.

When Covid hit, they lowered the rates all the way down. Then the fed shoved their heads up their asses and did nothing for 18 months after the election, even though the economy was clearly on a heater prior to the election, and the Biden* was spending trillions on people not to work. And even after that, the feds kept their heads up their asses. The inflation took off, but from the echo chamber of their large intestine we heard something that sounded like "transitory". Then inflation kept going up.....and up....and up.......and then we get a quarter where we have a drop in gdp and are entering a recession and then the fed pulls their heads out of their asses and start raising rates, which will shove us into a recession/depression.

What the fed did under Biden* in no way matched what they did under Trump. Under Trump, they literally micro-analyzed every indicator to say they probably needed another rate hike. Under Biden* they did jack diddly sh*t. Had the rates been back to Trump levels in Q1 of 2021, and had the fed acted sooner, and had the idiot may Pete Buttjig not be so incompetant, and had Biden* not been a dumb*** on energy, all of this could have been avoided.

In no way do I disagree that the Fed acted too slow as we were coming out of COVID and they needed to raise rates. But even during the Trump years the Fed was too slow to act. The transitory inflation was a joke, and even if it was the case then you could have acted to lower once those transitory factors passed. Now we are all going to pay for all the cash that has been created and thrown into the economy. That goes on both parties. As a libertarian, I've been against almost everything that has gone on since 2008. Should have let those banks that were overleveraged crash and burn. I'm tired of main street bailing out wall street.

You must really hate them bailing out the overpriced college system in America then.

(05-05-2022 12:05 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 11:59 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 11:40 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 11:30 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 10:02 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Rents are currently higher than mortgage payments. Rent prices NEVER go down. If housing values decrease it will make even less sense to rent over buying. There is going to be a bottle neck of vacant homes and apartment units in coming years and there is currently a ton of new construction coming out of the ground. This will be worse than 2008-2012.

1. Rents are not anywhere near as high as mortgage payments. May be true with older mortgages, but if you bought a house right now you wouldn't come anywhere close to covering it by renting it out.

2. Rent prices will indeed come down if the government doesn't step in to subsidize through tax credits, expansion of Section 8, or another new program. People need to live and their income is finite. Maybe in a hot urban center you can simply cram more single, naive, masochistic 20-somethings into the same shoebox and never lower the rent, but if you are talking about single family houses, if they sit empty long enough generating no revenue, the rent goes down.

In every market there is a price point in which properties are not considered a rental. Properties considered typical rentals have rents higher than the mortgage payment would be. If they weren't there would be no such thing as rental properties. Why would an investor buy a property which costs more to buy than the return gives? An most large apartment complexes are owned by corporations and they would much rather file BK than lower rents. With mortgage rates at 6%+ builders will have to give away finished homes and those that had deals fall through. That is when the values will decline, because builders have to build. They get paid to build. Selling only allows them to build more homes. It will be a mess and new home sales around me put on the breaks about a month ago when the rates went from 3.5% to 5% overnight. It will only get worse and I'm sure there are borrowers currently that didn't close before their "lock" ended and weren't in budget to close with the new rate. Spec homes in builder subdivisions are the first sign of "blood" in the housing market. Builders don't like making payments on their builds.

Investors wouldn't buy a property which costs more to buy than the return gives. That was my point. I could probably rent my house for its mortgage payment (it would be close), but I bought it 15 years ago. You couldn't buy one now and rent it. That will accelerate the collapse. They aren't investing to rent. They are investing because they think they can turn a profit selling tomorrow. Not sure if that is still the case anymore, but once it is clear it isn't, the Ponzi scheme collapses and someone is left holding the bag. Further, the ability to cash out equity to pay for the inflation ends. We saw this dance not too long ago.

There aren't really many "builder subdivisions" around here and there really haven't been any new ones since the early 2000s. Most of the city was subdivided/built in the 50s and 60s and most of the acreage parcels that remain are smaller (<10 acres) and become more owner subdivisions where they divide in to lots and sell the land to whoever or deed it to their children. They aren't large planned developments. I'm glad, because as you alluded, those are all going to turn to shite. I would avoid those regions like the plague.

A lot of people, companies, and banks are going to lose a lot of money.

You don't live in a "typical" market. At 3.5% you could buy a house and rent it the next day for more than your mortgage payment in my market.

Even at 3.5% (and rates are significantly higher), a $500,000 house (and that's what the typical middle class "Wonder Years" type home is listed for right now), you are looking at about $3,500 per month to cover mortgage, property tax, and insurance. Closer to $4,000 if there is an HOA. Not sure who is paying that ("Typically") in rent unless you live in a major city or a tourist zone that can get it via Airbnb. Moving to 5.5% adds about another $500. If you consider maintenance and repairs, probably another $500. That's if you have the time an energy to do it yourself and not have to give a property management company a cut. These people that have been buying these homes the last 2 years aren't renting them. There aren't many rentals on the market at all really anywhere right now.

(05-05-2022 11:23 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 10:09 AM)mlb Wrote:  My issue is that we should have been raising the interest rates years ago. Neither party truly understands things, but the economy was admittedly going great during the Trump years and he pushed to keep the interest rates artificially low which gave us no room to work should we hit a recession. Now we have all this stimulus spending from both parties and the war causing significant inflation so we have to raise interest rates, while at the same time staring a recession in the face.

The fed raised rates under Trump to levels that were not seen since prior to Obama. Trump correctly kept the pressure on the feds to keep rates low, because they were jumping at every indicator to raise rates and that could have stifled the economy. In the end, inflation was kept in check, and the economy was on a heater. So the rates under Trump were appropriate.

When Covid hit, they lowered the rates all the way down. Then the fed shoved their heads up their asses and did nothing for 18 months after the election, even though the economy was clearly on a heater prior to the election, and the Biden* was spending trillions on people not to work. And even after that, the feds kept their heads up their asses. The inflation took off, but from the echo chamber of their large intestine we heard something that sounded like "transitory". Then inflation kept going up.....and up....and up.......and then we get a quarter where we have a drop in gdp and are entering a recession and then the fed pulls their heads out of their asses and start raising rates, which will shove us into a recession/depression.

What the fed did under Biden* in no way matched what they did under Trump. Under Trump, they literally micro-analyzed every indicator to say they probably needed another rate hike. Under Biden* they did jack diddly sh*t. Had the rates been back to Trump levels in Q1 of 2021, and had the fed acted sooner, and had the idiot may Pete Buttjig not be so incompetant, and had Biden* not been a dumb*** on energy, all of this could have been avoided.

Unfortunately, this what you get when you have gross inept incompetent leadership that is more worried about someone’s gender Letter than running the country as a whole. It is gross ignorance to the infinity. Now the same fools who voted for him will be the same fools who suffer.

(05-05-2022 12:25 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 12:18 PM)mlb Wrote:  In no way do I disagree that the Fed acted too slow as we were coming out of COVID and they needed to raise rates. But even during the Trump years the Fed was too slow to act. The transitory inflation was a joke, and even if it was the case then you could have acted to lower once those transitory factors passed. Now we are all going to pay for all the cash that has been created and thrown into the economy. That goes on both parties. As a libertarian, I've been against almost everything that has gone on since 2008. Should have let those banks that were overleveraged crash and burn. I'm tired of main street bailing out wall street.

You must really hate them bailing out the overpriced college system in America then.

Absolutely. I don't think we should be bailing out people who make poor decisions on their degrees.

(05-05-2022 12:26 PM)mlb Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 12:25 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 12:18 PM)mlb Wrote:  In no way do I disagree that the Fed acted too slow as we were coming out of COVID and they needed to raise rates. But even during the Trump years the Fed was too slow to act. The transitory inflation was a joke, and even if it was the case then you could have acted to lower once those transitory factors passed. Now we are all going to pay for all the cash that has been created and thrown into the economy. That goes on both parties. As a libertarian, I've been against almost everything that has gone on since 2008. Should have let those banks that were overleveraged crash and burn. I'm tired of main street bailing out wall street.

You must really hate them bailing out the overpriced college system in America then.

Absolutely. I don't think we should be bailing out people who make poor decisions on their degrees.

Awoman to both posts

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Hope you all have some hard assets...recession here we come...

(05-05-2022 12:48 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Hope you all have some hard assets...recession here we come...

That was always the only possible outcome of putting President Houseplant in charge of the largest economy in the world.

(05-05-2022 02:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 12:48 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Hope you all have some hard assets...recession here we come...

That was always the only possible outcome of putting President Houseplant in charge of the largest economy in the world.

To some extent, but I think the WAY it happened was not on anyone's radar with a huge demand increases for travel ballooning the consumer price index, a war between two developed countries precipitating expected shortages in many key commodities, and a completely out of control housing market. I think one of those is within the president's control, and clearly would've had somewhat different outcomes under DJT (Ukraine War and outcomes from that), but two others really aren't (public's overcompensation and private industry price gouging to make up balance sheets in travel costs and the housing market), and would've happened regardless of who was in the WH. After all, the 4 largest contributors to inflation right now, which account for roughly 60% of the total impact of inflation are used car sales (production issues due to Covid causing a lack of new car inventory), energy costs (specifically oil, due to policy changes and Ukraine War), housing costs (market expansion akin to a Red Giant...), and travel attributed costs (bounceback from Covid).

(05-05-2022 02:46 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 02:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 12:48 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Hope you all have some hard assets...recession here we come...

That was always the only possible outcome of putting President Houseplant in charge of the largest economy in the world.

To some extent, but I think the WAY it happened was not on anyone's radar with a huge demand increases for travel ballooning the consumer price index, a war between two developed countries precipitating expected shortages in many key commodities, and a completely out of control housing market. I think one of those is within the president's control, and clearly would've had somewhat different outcomes under DJT (Ukraine War and outcomes from that), but two others really aren't (public's overcompensation and private industry price gouging to make up balance sheets in travel costs and the housing market), and would've happened regardless of who was in the WH. After all, the 4 largest contributors to inflation right now, which account for roughly 60% of the total impact of inflation are used car sales (production issues due to Covid causing a lack of new car inventory), energy costs (specifically oil, due to policy changes and Ukraine War), housing costs (market expansion akin to a Red Giant...), and travel attributed costs (bounceback from Covid).

I dont agree. The current president mailed out more and bigger checks, he essentially encouraged unemployment over employment, purposely curtailed the future domestic oil/gas production, and created a condition where more dollars were chasing less inventory (which was due as much to inability to hire help to improve production as it was to Covid shutdowns). The current conditions were not inevitable. This president litereally manufactured inflation and an energy shortage. If he doesnt get his head out of his butt---he may even create a food shortage. He should be on the phone right now making sure the railroads understand that transporting fertilizer is more important than transporting Pelatons and flat screens.

(05-05-2022 12:48 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Hope you all have some hard assets...recession here we come...

Looking at buying about 33 acres... just because.

I'm positioned to buy this turd market like a big dog.

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(05-05-2022 03:17 PM)maximus Wrote:  

(05-05-2022 12:48 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Hope you all have some hard assets...recession here we come...

Looking at buying about 33 acres... just because.

I'm positioned to buy this turd market like a big dog.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Yep...same here, this is going to be an opportunity as much as it is a problem for some.

So when the shite it the fan in '07-'08, the Government not only bailed everyone out, but not a single person with any degree of authority in the Government or the private sector went to jail (at least to my knowledge) and no effective controls were put in place to prevent a repeat. In fact, the exact thing is happening... ARMs and other subprimes, masses of people cashing out, handwritten "We Buy Ugly Houses" signs everywhere, every barber, plumber, and electrician in town getting real estate agent licenses or getting into the mortgage or house flipping business. Just ridiculous.

(05-06-2022 08:44 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  So when the shite it the fan in '07-'08, the Government not only bailed everyone out, but not a single person with any degree of authority in the Government or the private sector went to jail (at least to my knowledge) and no effective controls were put in place to prevent a repeat. In fact, the exact thing is happening... ARMs and other subprimes, masses of people cashing out, handwritten "We Buy Ugly Houses" signs everywhere, every barber, plumber, and electrician in town getting real estate agent licenses or getting into the mortgage or house flipping business. Just ridiculous.

I know former Mortgage Brokers that are closing sales now. Not an attorney in site. Surely no probs will arise from that.