Hofstra is one of three teams besides UNCW that realistically have a shot at the regular season title. UNCW is 10-1 and Hofstra is 6-4 with UNCW having played one more game than Hofstra.

A win at Hofstra and UNCW goes to 11-1 with only six games remaining and Hofstra goes to 6-5. A loss for Hofstra effectively ends their chance to win the regular season title. So this is a must win for Hofstra and a game that gets UNCW a whole lot closer to winning the regular season title, narrowing the teams that could possibly overtake us to Towson and Delaware.

Besides an inexplicable loss to W&M, Hofstra's only losses have been twice to Towson and once to UNCW. The achilles heel of Hofstra has been their inability to shoot the three and their inability to defend the three.

Hofstra conference play stats

#10 three point shooting 28.9% UNCW#3 at 37.4%
#9 three point defense 37.9% where they give up an average of 10 made three's each game.

UNCW is #6 in three point defense based on percentage points, but we simply do not allow other teams to get off three point shots. We limit opponents to 16 attempts per game which is #1 in the conference and only 5.9 avg. made three's per game. Hofstra was 3-18 against UNCW in round one, while UNCW was 10-27.

UNCW and Hofstra are #1 and #2 in the conference in TO margin(+5.18 and +3.9 respectively), but in our last meeting Hofstra turned the ball over 17 times compared to just 9 for UNCW. That led to 22 pt.s off TO's and 19 fast break points for the Hawks' and only 7 pt's off TO's and 7 fast break pts. for Hofstra.

Should be another great game between these two heavyweights in the CAA, but Hofstra doesn't have the roster to defend the Hawks' and their weaknesses are our strengths. Mike is back and he led us in scoring last time against Hofstra with 19 points. Phillips rode the pine and only played 15 minutes due to foul trouble and Sims was only 4-13 and we still won. Basketball is all about matchups, and UNCW matches up well against Hofstra.

I look for this to be an offensive explosion since both teams realize how important this game, plus it's nationally televised. UNCW is clicking on all cylinders.

Wild Eyed Southern Boys - 84
Yanks 75

I want to point out that your statistics are for CAA games, and Hofstra shot threes .360 against a hard nonconference schedule and .283 against the CAA. In all games, Hofstra is second of 358 teams shooting threes .807 (W&M has the CAA record of .810), and ninth shooting twos .576.

https://static.caasports.com/custompages...M#team.ind has Hofstra's statistics.

Of 13 statistics for all games, Hofstra has the CAA leader in four, and somebody in the top three in nine. Aaron Estrada leads with 18.0 points, 4.9 assists, and leads the NCAA with a .951 free throw percentage, which would be the CAA record and eighth in NCAA history. According to the NCAA, Gadsden has the CAA record of .944, which is 15th in NCAA history. However, the CAA excludes him because it requires 80 attempts, and he had 72 attempts because of how few games you played. Charleston's Reyne Smith is second in the NCAA at .948.

If the season was over now, Aaron Estrada would be the fifth Hofstra player to lead in points per game in twelve seasons, two others finished second, and two others made the First Team.

(02-06-2022 12:50 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  I want to point out that your statistics are for CAA games, and Hofstra shot threes .360 against a hard nonconference schedule and .283 against the CAA. In all games, Hofstra is second of 358 teams shooting threes .807 (W&M has the CAA record of .810), and ninth shooting twos .576.

https://static.caasports.com/custompages...M#team.ind has Hofstra's statistics.

Of 13 statistics for all games, Hofstra has the CAA leader in four, and somebody in the top three in nine. Aaron Estrada leads with 18.0 points, 4.9 assists, and leads the NCAA with a .951 free throw percentage, which would be the CAA record and eighth in NCAA history. According to the NCAA, Gadsden has the CAA record of .944, which is 15th in NCAA history. However, the CAA excludes him because it requires 80 attempts, and he had 72 attempts because of how few games you played. Charleston's Reyne Smith is second in the NCAA at .948.

If the season was over now, Aaron Estrada would be the fifth Hofstra player to lead in points per game in twelve seasons, two others finished second, and two others made the First Team.

This is what always worries me about Hofstra. To summarize all of that, Hofstra almost without fail, scores the ball very well. The last couple games I feel like our defense is letting up a bit. We only turned the Tribe over 11 times, and we had trouble turning Elon over too. Getting turnovers was a huge part of that 12 win streak we had. If we’re going to beat LICC tomorrow, we have to get turnovers and convert them into points.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

(02-06-2022 12:50 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  I want to point out that your statistics are for CAA games, and Hofstra shot threes .360 against a hard nonconference schedule and .283 against the CAA. In all games, Hofstra is second of 358 teams shooting threes .807 (W&M has the CAA record of .810), and ninth shooting twos .576.

https://static.caasports.com/custompages...M#team.ind has Hofstra's statistics.

Of 13 statistics for all games, Hofstra has the CAA leader in four, and somebody in the top three in nine. Aaron Estrada leads with 18.0 points, 4.9 assists, and leads the NCAA with a .951 free throw percentage, which would be the CAA record and eighth in NCAA history. According to the NCAA, Gadsden has the CAA record of .944, which is 15th in NCAA history. However, the CAA excludes him because it requires 80 attempts, and he had 72 attempts because of how few games you played. Charleston's Reyne Smith is second in the NCAA at .948.

If the season was over now, Aaron Estrada would be the fifth Hofstra player to lead in points per game in twelve seasons, two others finished second, and two others made the First Team.

I missed pointing out this was for conference play, but I only use conference numbers because it's the best data to. compare based on identical opponents. Also, coaches know the other teams and coaching strategies far better than they know OOC opponents. The facts I used are accurate and imo, OOC stats don't mean much. Hofstra has struggled both shooting and defending the three in the CAA. Meanwhile UNCW has excelled in both. I mentioned these same stats the last time we played and the stats from that game back up the stats. The unexpected factor was the TO's by Hofstra compared to UNCW. True to CAA stats, UNCW had a huge advantage from the three point line. The other factor was turnovers, where UNCW had a huge advantage as well.

Things may change thus game but based on stats before the last game I predicted the win and the point spread based on CAA data. Not much has changed since then except Fornes for UNCW has become another offensive weapon who wasn't on track yet.

Hofstra is pretty much a one man band of offense, and UNCW can switch on picks and not get into mismatches against Estrada. OTH, UNCW has multiple players who can light it up on any given night with Sims, Phillips, Okauru, Harvey and Fornes. Hofstra has two players in the top 25 of the CAA in scoring while UNCW has four and three of them are in the top 11. The two teams are almost identical in most categories, but UNCW has a huge edge in three point shooting on offense and defense. That's the separating factor.

My prediction remains the same.

Hofstra is far from being a one-man scoring team. Last checked we have five double scorers on the season.

Double up on Estrada and Cooks, who now is healthy, preseason all CAA Jalen Ray, Dubar or Silverio can light you up as well.

Should be a good game and there's a reason all the prognosticators have us as 7-point favs.

(02-07-2022 11:51 AM)HUPride Wrote:  there's a reason all the prognosticators have us as 7-point favs.

Just like we were an underdog in nearly every win in the 12 game stretch. Just like those reasons?

(02-07-2022 11:51 AM)HUPride Wrote:  Hofstra is far from being a one-man scoring team. Last checked we have five double scorers on the season.

Double up on Estrada and Cooks, who now is healthy, preseason all CAA Jalen Ray, Dubar or Silverio can light you up as well.

Should be a good game and there's a reason all the prognosticators have us as 7-point favs.

Any idea what the reason is? Certainly not the game we played several weeks back. Rest assured, we will not be doubling up anyone.

(02-07-2022 12:14 PM)GrayHawk Wrote:  Should be a good game and there's a reason all the prognosticators have us as 7-point favs.

Absolutely, I don't even think we should play the game. Just give the win to Hofstra.

(02-07-2022 11:51 AM)HUPride Wrote:  Hofstra is far from being a one-man scoring team. Last checked we have five double scorers on the season.

Double up on Estrada and Cooks, who now is healthy, preseason all CAA Jalen Ray, Dubar or Silverio can light you up as well.

Should be a good game and there's a reason all the prognosticators have us as 7-point favs.

You do recall the FACT that you're sitting at 0-1 against our squad this year right?

(02-06-2022 01:26 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Hofstra has two players in the top 25 of the CAA in scoring while UNCW has four and three of them are in the top 11. The two teams are almost identical in most categories, but UNCW has a huge edge in three point shooting on offense and defense. That's the separating factor.

In all games, Zach Cooks averages 15.0 points, and he would be fourth if he played in 75 percent of games to qualify, which he will after today. Hofstra played the 31st hardest nonconference schedule and 62nd hardest season schedule of 358 teams.

Only using conference games is like if you take two students from the same high school who went to colleges of different difficulties that are known relative to each other and after college say it's only fair to compare them using high school grades because their colleges had different difficulties.

I understand why Hofstra is favored, but I wouldn't be surprised if you win. Teams change during the season. In 2019, the Washington Nationals started 22-32, which was a pace to go 66-96, and they won the World Series. For you to go from 3-5 (2-5 vs. Division I) to winning the CAA Tournament is possible.

Cooks should've been ejected from the last game.

That's not a trackable stat though, just sayin.

The fellas from Long Island Community college are out in full force today

(02-07-2022 12:44 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(02-06-2022 01:26 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Hofstra has two players in the top 25 of the CAA in scoring while UNCW has four and three of them are in the top 11. The two teams are almost identical in most categories, but UNCW has a huge edge in three point shooting on offense and defense. That's the separating factor.

In all games, Zach Cooks averages 15.0 points, and he would be fourth if he played in 75 percent of games to qualify, which he will after today. Hofstra played the 31st hardest nonconference schedule and 62nd hardest season schedule of 358 teams.

Only using conference games is like if you take two students from the same high school who went to colleges of different difficulties that are known relative to each other and after college say it's only fair to compare them using high school grades because their colleges had different difficulties.

I understand why Hofstra is favored, but I wouldn't be surprised if you win. Teams change during the season. In 2019, the Washington Nationals started 22-32, which was a pace to go 66-96, and they won the World Series. For you to go from 3-5 (2-5 vs. Division I) to winning the CAA Tournament is possible.

I think the discrepancy in SOS/NET rankings are why Hofstra is favored. Per the metrics, UNCW is still unremarkable; we haven't played anyone in the first quad and we are 1-0 in Q2. I don't understand why UNCW's run through the league in the first half of the season is being dismissed though. It's one thing to have national media focus on metrics and ignore our improvement; they're not watching the games and they have no feel for the league as a whole. They're simply monitoring the metrics, but it feels really strange (and disrespectful) for fans of the league to do the same.

Hofstra has three home CAA wins this year by an average margin of victory of 5 points, and they lost their last home game to Towson by 10. Maybe Hofstra covers tonight; I certainly don't have a problem with them being favored on their home floor, but we probably should stop pretending that our losses to Southern Miss and Norfolk St mean anything the rest of the way.

(02-07-2022 11:51 AM)HUPride Wrote:  Hofstra is far from being a one-man scoring team. Last checked we have five double scorers on the season.

Double up on Estrada and Cooks, who now is healthy, preseason all CAA Jalen Ray, Dubar or Silverio can light you up as well.

Should be a good game and there's a reason all the prognosticators have us as 7-point favs.

You definitely have a good and deep squad and I understand why you’re favored.

(02-07-2022 12:44 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(02-06-2022 01:26 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Hofstra has two players in the top 25 of the CAA in scoring while UNCW has four and three of them are in the top 11. The two teams are almost identical in most categories, but UNCW has a huge edge in three point shooting on offense and defense. That's the separating factor.

In all games, Zach Cooks averages 15.0 points, and he would be fourth if he played in 75 percent of games to qualify, which he will after today. Hofstra played the 31st hardest nonconference schedule and 62nd hardest season schedule of 358 teams.

Only using conference games is like if you take two students from the same high school who went to colleges of different difficulties that are known relative to each other and after college say it's only fair to compare them using high school grades because their colleges had different difficulties.

I understand why Hofstra is favored, but I wouldn't be surprised if you win. Teams change during the season. In 2019, the Washington Nationals started 22-32, which was a pace to go 66-96, and they won the World Series. For you to go from 3-5 (2-5 vs. Division I) to winning the CAA Tournament is possible.

Terrible analogy. Conference games have more value than OOC games for multiple reasons.

1. OOC games are used by both teams to try out players, schemes, lineups and overall strategies. But in the end, wins or losses OOC don't get you to the NCAA tournament unless you do great in your conference as well. And in the case of the CAA for the past 10 years, only if you win the conference tournmanent. The record really starts to count once conference play starts. A 10-1 in record in conference is far more important than 10-1 OOC.
2. There is a reason conferences exist in the first place and why home and home games are played. The team that wins a conference has proven themselves in the fairest manner possible, which is playing the exact same oppenents in the exact same locations. In conference statistics compare teams and players which all have the same level of motivation, all starting at zero with an equal chance at winning the conference. And every team and player faces the exact same players and competition as the other conference teams.

No matter how you try to spin it, your logic is flawed. There is a reason conference only stats are monitored and a reason confernce games are tallied separately from OOC games. Nice try though.

Game's at 5ET? That's kinda weird. At least I get to watch while working (west coast).

(02-07-2022 12:44 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(02-06-2022 01:26 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Hofstra has two players in the top 25 of the CAA in scoring while UNCW has four and three of them are in the top 11. The two teams are almost identical in most categories, but UNCW has a huge edge in three point shooting on offense and defense. That's the separating factor.

Only using conference games is like if you take two students from the same high school who went to colleges of different difficulties that are known relative to each other and after college say it's only fair to compare them using high school grades because their colleges had different difficulties.

82 explained why it's more important to look at the conference games, but your example above is actually backwards compared to the point you're trying to get across.

You're looking backwards across a bunch of games outside of recent play and during conference play lineups and the likes stabilize, especially when considering the fact we are all playing the same opponents. Your analogy is actually backwards when it comes to adding weight to what is recent plus the commonality factor.

Good start already.

Announcers calling us UNCW....:-)

Are we in the right arena?

Sounds like a NU crowd/

Goood omen. Big Mike hits his first threept. attempt and Hofstra with two TO's.