(02-07-2022 09:46 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-26-2022 06:02 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If the Super SEC ends up going to 24 teams and the Big 10 follows, I doubt anyone is going to have room for ND in the OOC as they’ll likely be playing 10 conference games. I think ND lands in the Super Big 10 simply due to lack of potential opponents. ND isn’t going to settle for independence if it means playing the Big 12, ACC, and PAC 12 leftovers. It’s a tough pill to swallow but the Big 10 is going to have the schools they want to play.

Looking around, I think these schools are likely all in hard spot:
ACC: BC, Cuse, WF
Big 12: Cincinnati, WVU, UCF, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston, BYU
PAC 12: Washington St, Oregon St, Utah

Bubble:
ACC: Pitt, Duke, GT, L’ville, NC St, Miami
Big 12: Kansas, Iowa St
PAC 12: Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St

Likely in a Super Conference:
ACC: Florida St, Clemson, VT, UVA, UNC
Big 12: None
Pac 12: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington

Alternatively, I think the SEC could end up as entity unto its own (with the addition of some ACC schools) while the Big Ten, PAC 12, ACC, Big 12, & ND stage their own playoff.

No doubt the pursuit of money is a very powerful force in society, and that is true of academia and intercollegiate sports as well. But I believe many fans continue to underestimate the power of another force -- inertia -- which dominates academics' behavior.

I do see the top football schools - that is to say the P5 - becoming a separate entity, whether that is inside the NCAA or outside of it. I don't see any of them being left behind in a pay for play world, and I don't see a P2 acting separately. At the same time, I doubt we'll see three 24 team conferences. I don't even think we will wind up with symmetry in conference/division size. But I do think that both the SEC and B1G will grow with culturally compatible brands, and that will result in a reduction from P5 to P4. I think the ACC is the conference that will have to die for this to happen.

I could see the B1G taking in ACC schools (including Notre Dame) as a new 7 team division, bringing them to 21 teams in total. The teams I would guess would be considered academically compatible to the B1G and valuable enough from a brand standpoint to justify that growth are: Notre Dame, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Pitt, Georgia Tech and Duke. I think those schools would also be willing and interested in staying together.

For its part, I think the SEC would accept Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Virginia Tech and Kansas, creating these 7 team divisions:

Clemson, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State and Kentucky
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Vandy
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri and Kansas

The PAC remains unchanged thanks to geography and academic snobbery. That leaves The Big 12 to absorb the remaining four ACC schools as part of an 8 team eastern division:

West Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, UCF and USF.

The western division consists of:
Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston and BYU.

These four conferences have their own postseason play, with the three conferences of 16 or more teams having a three game, four team CCT in the first two weeks of December. On New Year's Day, the B1G champ plays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 12 champ in the Sugar Bowl. The winners of those two bowls play each other for the championship of whatever they call this new, separate division.

The other four NY6 bowls match 8 non champions on or around New Year's Day. All six rotate as hosts of the National Championship game.

The 70 teams in this division will be required to play 10 games against division opponents, and no more than 2 games against other NCAA FBS schools (but no FCS schools).

Most important, each of these four conferences (and all other conferences) make their own rules about player compensation, mobility and eligibility, and are responsible for policing compliance with their own rules.

Ken, ESPN would have to have a really good reason to allow those 7 to move to the B1G.
Perhaps for allowing those teams out of their contracts ESPN would gain access to B1G product? This has to be a concern at ESPN. CBS promoting B1G product on Saturdays just might take back some of the SEC's "new" audience, and it's possible that the mouse may lose access to B1G product in the process.

If I were the B1G and wanted to pursue that expansion strategy, I would tweak your seven to close off the Va/NC markets. My seven would be Kansas, UVa, Va. Tech, Carolina, NC State, Georgia Tech and Duke. At this point I would offer Notre Dame an ACC style partial with some restrictions to limit the number of SEC football games per year. Probably increasing the per year commitment for the B1G from 5 to 6 or 7.

I would align Maryland with their old ACC conference mates for a 7 team division.
Kansas rounds out the B1G west. Rutgers (bless their hearts) gets Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue where they will stay until the eventually cry "uncle", drop B1G membership and at that time are replaced by Pitt.

If the B1G is going to make that move, there is no way they would want to split any portion of RTP.

(02-08-2022 06:13 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-07-2022 09:46 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-26-2022 06:02 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If the Super SEC ends up going to 24 teams and the Big 10 follows, I doubt anyone is going to have room for ND in the OOC as they’ll likely be playing 10 conference games. I think ND lands in the Super Big 10 simply due to lack of potential opponents. ND isn’t going to settle for independence if it means playing the Big 12, ACC, and PAC 12 leftovers. It’s a tough pill to swallow but the Big 10 is going to have the schools they want to play.

Looking around, I think these schools are likely all in hard spot:
ACC: BC, Cuse, WF
Big 12: Cincinnati, WVU, UCF, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston, BYU
PAC 12: Washington St, Oregon St, Utah

Bubble:
ACC: Pitt, Duke, GT, L’ville, NC St, Miami
Big 12: Kansas, Iowa St
PAC 12: Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St

Likely in a Super Conference:
ACC: Florida St, Clemson, VT, UVA, UNC
Big 12: None
Pac 12: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington

Alternatively, I think the SEC could end up as entity unto its own (with the addition of some ACC schools) while the Big Ten, PAC 12, ACC, Big 12, & ND stage their own playoff.

No doubt the pursuit of money is a very powerful force in society, and that is true of academia and intercollegiate sports as well. But I believe many fans continue to underestimate the power of another force -- inertia -- which dominates academics' behavior.

I do see the top football schools - that is to say the P5 - becoming a separate entity, whether that is inside the NCAA or outside of it. I don't see any of them being left behind in a pay for play world, and I don't see a P2 acting separately. At the same time, I doubt we'll see three 24 team conferences. I don't even think we will wind up with symmetry in conference/division size. But I do think that both the SEC and B1G will grow with culturally compatible brands, and that will result in a reduction from P5 to P4. I think the ACC is the conference that will have to die for this to happen.

I could see the B1G taking in ACC schools (including Notre Dame) as a new 7 team division, bringing them to 21 teams in total. The teams I would guess would be considered academically compatible to the B1G and valuable enough from a brand standpoint to justify that growth are: Notre Dame, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Pitt, Georgia Tech and Duke. I think those schools would also be willing and interested in staying together.

For its part, I think the SEC would accept Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Virginia Tech and Kansas, creating these 7 team divisions:

Clemson, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State and Kentucky
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Vandy
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri and Kansas

The PAC remains unchanged thanks to geography and academic snobbery. That leaves The Big 12 to absorb the remaining four ACC schools as part of an 8 team eastern division:

West Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, UCF and USF.

The western division consists of:
Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston and BYU.

These four conferences have their own postseason play, with the three conferences of 16 or more teams having a three game, four team CCT in the first two weeks of December. On New Year's Day, the B1G champ plays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 12 champ in the Sugar Bowl. The winners of those two bowls play each other for the championship of whatever they call this new, separate division.

The other four NY6 bowls match 8 non champions on or around New Year's Day. All six rotate as hosts of the National Championship game.

The 70 teams in this division will be required to play 10 games against division opponents, and no more than 2 games against other NCAA FBS schools (but no FCS schools).

Most important, each of these four conferences (and all other conferences) make their own rules about player compensation, mobility and eligibility, and are responsible for policing compliance with their own rules.

Ken, ESPN would have to have a really good reason to allow those 7 to move to the B1G.
Perhaps for allowing those teams out of their contracts ESPN would gain access to B1G product? This has to be a concern at ESPN. CBS promoting B1G product on Saturdays just might take back some of the SEC's "new" audience, and it's possible that the mouse may lose access to B1G product in the process.

If I were the B1G and wanted to pursue that expansion strategy, I would tweak your seven to close off the Va/NC markets. My seven would be Kansas, UVa, Va. Tech, Carolina, NC State, Georgia Tech and Duke. At this point I would offer Notre Dame an ACC style partial with some restrictions to limit the number of SEC football games per year. Probably increasing the per year commitment for the B1G from 5 to 6 or 7.

I would align Maryland with their old ACC conference mates for a 7 team division.
Kansas rounds out the B1G west. Rutgers (bless their hearts) gets Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue where they will stay until the eventually cry "uncle", drop B1G membership and at that time are replaced by Pitt.

If the B1G is going to make that move, there is no way they would want to split any portion of RTP.

What academics don't understand about business strategy is laughable. Nobody wants to buy the cow when it can simply milk it. There are 6 schools which account for 72.4% of the Big 10's value. You want the games between those schools, not the whole product. ESPN doesn't care about the research triangle. It cares about holding ad leverage in Virginia and North Carolina and holding it as efficiently as possible. And it cares about tying it into the largest potential viewing base.

The ACC has the most potential households already. What you don't have is their attention. ESPN has the most attention focused upon the SEC. For them, North Carolina, either of the Virgina schools, Clemson, Florida State and Miami have the greatest upside in the SEC.

ESPN has built a monopoly of state brands from Virginia, across Kentucky, through Missouri, and into Kansas, and everything South. Why? That is the area with the most eyeballs week in and week out on college sports product. Yeah, Michigan and Ohio State had a game where they pulled 15 million, a game, and the only one in recent memory.

The schools they need to keep the advertising hammer over the Southeast and Southwest (the 2 most viewer saturated regions for college sports and among the fastest growing) are: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State or Duke, Florida State and Miami. Having both Virginia schools is necessary because just one doesn't deliver the highest ad rates in a state of nearly 10 million. UNC and NC State deliver North Carolina, but then UNC and Duke deliver not only the state but some Northeast interest as well. Florida is large enough that having UF, FSU, and Miami simply triple dip 27 million, the way A&M and Texas double dip 29 million.

ESPN cares about branding and reach. They paid what they did to the SEC to glean Texas and Oklahoma which were 56.3% of the total value of the B12 in just 2 schools, and to maximize their values by pitting them against many more brands.

So, if ESPN wants to keep a monopoly on the SEC/ACC/B12 footprint and do so while maximizing brand reach and exponentially maximizing national interest they put their best brand schools (not necessarily the best teams in one sport) together and pay them the premium, and they group the rest together for less.

I'd say Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas would be their ideal collection. If they have reservations over Duke post coach K swap N.C. State. In either of the scenarios, they come out ahead in all aspects that enhance their leverage over ad rates, their % of actual viewers, and national reach. Especially if ND remains an Indy, but more fully under ESPN obligation and plays games all over. For this reason, if the ACC goes away, I expect ESPN to keep and expand rights to ND and to simply use in house scheduling of UT, OU, SEC brands and former ACC brands along with ND's traditional rivals as a national strategy.

The rest are priced together and cover the same markets gleaning the remaining niche markets of the regional interest.

If ESPN bids on B1G content it will be to have access to the aforementioned 6 schools (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa, with Michigan State just outside at 6.6% of the total value).

The same approach works with the PAC 12 where 5 schools hold 57.1% of the total value (Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Arizona State).

ESPN doesn't give a hoot about conferences as a whole. They care about how much they hold of the schools which comprise the highest combined value for the slots available.

FOX (if they remain engaged in college sports) might care about merging PAC brands with B1G brands whether by scheduling or other means. But ESPN isn't giving up its Southeastern and Southwestern monopoly. I look for them to pick up full rights to the B12 so they can finish sculpting the most cost-efficient division of assets.

ESPN will continue to maximize content value by which schools get the big money in the SEC (which to ESPN is just the top brand mix) and to round out inventory for odd times and streaming with their economy lineup.

If they can they will keep partial rights to time zone property out West and to some key games in the Northern Midwest. Notre Dame alone would deliver enough of the latter if they could remain independent. It is a mistake to see ND's value to ESPN as being a whole member of either the ACC or SEC. ESPN maximizes ND's value by having them as insurance to a West Coast or Northern Midwest/New England draw.

So what you're saying is that Ken d's B1G pipe dream just went up in smoke?

NC State will not consent to go to the B12.

If as JR writes Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas join an expanded SEC, NC State and GT will not acquiesce to the B12. They will go to the B10 and the B10 will take them even if it is only to spite ESPN.

(02-08-2022 04:03 PM)Statefan Wrote:  NC State will not consent to go to the B12.

If as JR writes Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas join an expanded SEC, NC State and GT will not acquiesce to the B12. They will go to the B10 and the B10 will take them even if it is only to spite ESPN.

Nah. The Big 10 and PAC 12 AAU schools would likely form another 23 and either Pitt or Kansas, or Iowa State would make 24 if ND remained aloof. If it's Kansas it opens another slot.

IMO Duke - K is no slam dunk. N.C. State has more upside and Duke is not an imperative if UNC & Kansas are in, especially as SEC hoops get stronger. The question is what does UNC push for, and which one would ESPN prefer? The viewership #'s are in your favor but both would be way low by SEC standards.

We still do not know who will opt out of pay for play and I expect a few to do so.

It would remain more profitable for the SEC to take 4 (VaTech, UNC, Clemson, & FSU, and if Vandy opted out Miami). But it's not about the SEC. It's about ESPN.

(02-08-2022 04:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:03 PM)Statefan Wrote:  NC State will not consent to go to the B12.

If as JR writes Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas join an expanded SEC, NC State and GT will not acquiesce to the B12. They will go to the B10 and the B10 will take them even if it is only to spite ESPN.

Nah. The Big 10 and PAC 12 AAU schools would likely form another 23 and either Pitt or Kansas, or Iowa State would make 24 if ND remained aloof. If it's Kansas it opens another slot.

IMO Duke - K is no slam dunk. N.C. State has more upside and Duke is not an imperative if UNC & Kansas are in, especially as SEC hoops get stronger. The question is what does UNC push for, and which one would ESPN prefer? The viewership #'s are in your favor but both would be way low by SEC standards.

We still do not know who will opt out of pay for play and I expect a few to do so.

It would remain more profitable for the SEC to take 4 (VaTech, UNC, Clemson, & FSU, and if Vandy opted out Miami). But it's not about the SEC. It's about ESPN.

Who knows what State's viewership would be if we were on television against someone other than James Madison or some other body bag. Part of ratings is who you are up against and who you are playing.

(02-03-2022 09:44 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(02-03-2022 08:31 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-03-2022 07:19 PM)Statefan Wrote:  It's one thing to have seats, it's another to fill them.

Pitt averaged 45,400 for 21
Miami averaged 43,500
Louisville averaged 43,570
Mizzou averaged 46,200
UNC averaged 48,000
MSU averages 49,430
NC State averages 54,510
Kentucky averaged 56,140
Ole Miss averaged 56,230

If you are attempting a split, the only question is where VT goes.

Texas, OU, LSU, TAMU, Auburn, Bama, TN, Florida, Georgia, Clemson, FSU, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina make a tidy 14 with filled seating from 75K to 105K.

VT is the tweener at 65K because Pitt and Miami never average more than 50-52K in a year and to do that Pitt has to host PSU and Miami has to host a good FSU or a good Florida team. If you push VT down, you get VT, NC State, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Pitt, Miss State, Miami, Kentucky, UNC, GT, Louis, and UVa as 12 that seat on paper 50-65 but in reality usually host 43-60K.

I really don't know what to do about BC, Syracuse, WF, Duke, and Vandy. Of these five Wake is the most committed to football. Duke and Vandy are not committed at all.

If you were going to split the combined SEC and ACC, there would have to be exceptions made for the attendance criteria.

This I think works.
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, FSU, Georgia, Clemson, South Carolina, Tennessee

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, UVa, Virginia Tech, Carolina, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mizzou, Louisville

That works.

ACC West - Mizzou, Vandy, Louisville, KY, Pitt
ACC South - Miami, GT, UNC, NC State, Duke
ACC North - WF, VT, UVa, BC, Syracuse

SEC West - Texas, OU, TAMU, LSU, Arkansas
SEC South - Ole Miss, MSU, Bama, Tennessee, Auburn
SEC East - Florida, FSU, Georgia, Clemson, SC

That gets you past the 30,000-40,000 tickets per home game differential that is so difficult to negotiate.

LOOK what happens if you take into account Wahoowa84's summary of viewership. Again dividing into two 15 team conferences, when the ACC's top three most viewed teams are moved into the SEC and the 4 least viewed SEC teams move into the ACC.

ACC West-Mizzou, Vandy, Louisville, Ky, Pitt
ACC South-GT, UNC, NC State, WF, South Carolina
ACC North-Duke, VT, UVa, BC, Syracuse

SEC West-Texas, OU, TAMU, LSU, Arkansas
SEC South-Ole Miss, MSU, Alabama, Tenn. Auburn
SEC East-Florida, FSU, Georgia, Clemson, Miami

(02-08-2022 05:25 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:03 PM)Statefan Wrote:  NC State will not consent to go to the B12.

If as JR writes Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas join an expanded SEC, NC State and GT will not acquiesce to the B12. They will go to the B10 and the B10 will take them even if it is only to spite ESPN.

Nah. The Big 10 and PAC 12 AAU schools would likely form another 23 and either Pitt or Kansas, or Iowa State would make 24 if ND remained aloof. If it's Kansas it opens another slot.

IMO Duke - K is no slam dunk. N.C. State has more upside and Duke is not an imperative if UNC & Kansas are in, especially as SEC hoops get stronger. The question is what does UNC push for, and which one would ESPN prefer? The viewership #'s are in your favor but both would be way low by SEC standards.

We still do not know who will opt out of pay for play and I expect a few to do so.

It would remain more profitable for the SEC to take 4 (VaTech, UNC, Clemson, & FSU, and if Vandy opted out Miami). But it's not about the SEC. It's about ESPN.

Who knows what State's viewership would be if we were on television against someone other than James Madison or some other body bag. Part of ratings is who you are up against and who you are playing.

SEC teams don't play body bag games? Every SEC team played an FCS game in 2021 and that's not even counting the other G5 cupcakes they play.

(02-09-2022 06:30 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 05:25 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:03 PM)Statefan Wrote:  NC State will not consent to go to the B12.

If as JR writes Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas join an expanded SEC, NC State and GT will not acquiesce to the B12. They will go to the B10 and the B10 will take them even if it is only to spite ESPN.

Nah. The Big 10 and PAC 12 AAU schools would likely form another 23 and either Pitt or Kansas, or Iowa State would make 24 if ND remained aloof. If it's Kansas it opens another slot.

IMO Duke - K is no slam dunk. N.C. State has more upside and Duke is not an imperative if UNC & Kansas are in, especially as SEC hoops get stronger. The question is what does UNC push for, and which one would ESPN prefer? The viewership #'s are in your favor but both would be way low by SEC standards.

We still do not know who will opt out of pay for play and I expect a few to do so.

It would remain more profitable for the SEC to take 4 (VaTech, UNC, Clemson, & FSU, and if Vandy opted out Miami). But it's not about the SEC. It's about ESPN.

Who knows what State's viewership would be if we were on television against someone other than James Madison or some other body bag. Part of ratings is who you are up against and who you are playing.

SEC teams don't play body bag games? Every SEC team played an FCS game in 2021 and that's not even counting the other G5 cupcakes they play.

Without the FCS who will the SEC schedule before rivalry week when the ACC is playing conference games? The most important thing is the opponent needs to be a push over so it's a half bye week half warm up. If the opponent has a pulse you're overscheduling by SEC standards.

(02-09-2022 09:08 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-09-2022 06:30 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 05:25 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:03 PM)Statefan Wrote:  NC State will not consent to go to the B12.

If as JR writes Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas join an expanded SEC, NC State and GT will not acquiesce to the B12. They will go to the B10 and the B10 will take them even if it is only to spite ESPN.

Nah. The Big 10 and PAC 12 AAU schools would likely form another 23 and either Pitt or Kansas, or Iowa State would make 24 if ND remained aloof. If it's Kansas it opens another slot.

IMO Duke - K is no slam dunk. N.C. State has more upside and Duke is not an imperative if UNC & Kansas are in, especially as SEC hoops get stronger. The question is what does UNC push for, and which one would ESPN prefer? The viewership #'s are in your favor but both would be way low by SEC standards.

We still do not know who will opt out of pay for play and I expect a few to do so.

It would remain more profitable for the SEC to take 4 (VaTech, UNC, Clemson, & FSU, and if Vandy opted out Miami). But it's not about the SEC. It's about ESPN.

Who knows what State's viewership would be if we were on television against someone other than James Madison or some other body bag. Part of ratings is who you are up against and who you are playing.

SEC teams don't play body bag games? Every SEC team played an FCS game in 2021 and that's not even counting the other G5 cupcakes they play.

Without the FCS who will the SEC schedule before rivalry week when the ACC is playing conference games? The most important thing is the opponent needs to be a push over so it's a half bye week half warm up. If the opponent has a pulse you're overscheduling by SEC standards.

And yet the SEC's SOS is always higher than that of the ACC or the MAC playing B1G and somehow having the top of your conference body bag the Big 10 champs and their in state rivals from the ACC (which are usually the only competition of note for the SEC champs) isn't enough to put this asinine annual claim to rest (Clemson excepted as they usually have chicken dinner in November). So much smack from the schadenfreude crowd!

And for the record there are few playing FCS games now and those which do are usually making a schedule cover for cancellations. This past season Florida was at Missouri the week before playing FSU, South Carolina hosted Auburn the week before playing Clemson, Kentucky had New Mexico State. Seems like UGa was the only one playing below their weight with Charleston Southern (56-7 which isn't much different from 45-0), but finishing with Michigan and Alabama likely made up for that don't ya think?

(02-08-2022 04:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:03 PM)Statefan Wrote:  NC State will not consent to go to the B12.

If as JR writes Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas join an expanded SEC, NC State and GT will not acquiesce to the B12. They will go to the B10 and the B10 will take them even if it is only to spite ESPN.

Nah. The Big 10 and PAC 12 AAU schools would likely form another 23 and either Pitt or Kansas, or Iowa State would make 24 if ND remained aloof. If it's Kansas it opens another slot.

IMO Duke - K is no slam dunk. N.C. State has more upside and Duke is not an imperative if UNC & Kansas are in, especially as SEC hoops get stronger. The question is what does UNC push for, and which one would ESPN prefer? The viewership #'s are in your favor but both would be way low by SEC standards.

We still do not know who will opt out of pay for play and I expect a few to do so.

It would remain more profitable for the SEC to take 4 (VaTech, UNC, Clemson, & FSU, and if Vandy opted out Miami). But it's not about the SEC. It's about ESPN.

The ESPN strategy would be to deny the Big Ten any pathway to the states of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. Therefore, I think the final 8 would be:

Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, UNC, NC State, Va Tech and UVa

It's the same strategy that shut off the state of Texas to the Big Ten (and no, the likes of Houston or Rice would not be palatable enough for what they would want and neither would Duke). And at 24 do you really need all of them to be football powerhouses? So Vandy baseball, women's lacrosse, etc., should have a place in the new environment.

That leaves the PAC/B1G with no choice but to partially merge. 10 from the PAC joining the 14 B1G (overlooking ASU's lack of AAU because the Phoenix market is much more important than Kansas City's and they have a hockey team), with uneven divisions or, more likely, going divisionless.

The Big 12 would likely then pick up Louisville and South Florida, two P level southern programs the SEC couldn't pick up. Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest and Duke would join the Big East, as well as Notre Dame's other sports, thereby heralding the return of Eastern independents.

So the new paradigm would have 24, 24, 14, Notre Dame and a bunch of new indies and G programs that might rise to the challenge from time to time if the playoffs expanded to a high number of spots. The corporatization of college sports is somehow mitigated by academic inertia.

(02-09-2022 06:30 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 05:25 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:03 PM)Statefan Wrote:  NC State will not consent to go to the B12.

If as JR writes Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas join an expanded SEC, NC State and GT will not acquiesce to the B12. They will go to the B10 and the B10 will take them even if it is only to spite ESPN.

Nah. The Big 10 and PAC 12 AAU schools would likely form another 23 and either Pitt or Kansas, or Iowa State would make 24 if ND remained aloof. If it's Kansas it opens another slot.

IMO Duke - K is no slam dunk. N.C. State has more upside and Duke is not an imperative if UNC & Kansas are in, especially as SEC hoops get stronger. The question is what does UNC push for, and which one would ESPN prefer? The viewership #'s are in your favor but both would be way low by SEC standards.

We still do not know who will opt out of pay for play and I expect a few to do so.

It would remain more profitable for the SEC to take 4 (VaTech, UNC, Clemson, & FSU, and if Vandy opted out Miami). But it's not about the SEC. It's about ESPN.

Who knows what State's viewership would be if we were on television against someone other than James Madison or some other body bag. Part of ratings is who you are up against and who you are playing.

SEC teams don't play body bag games? Every SEC team played an FCS game in 2021 and that's not even counting the other G5 cupcakes they play.

State only has 4 data points listed for 21. A few years ago we had a game with JMU as a data point. When your games are not recorded in the basic data set, who knows who is watching or who might watch. But what does it matter and why would you look at the actual broadcast footprint or competition to gauge viewership?

(02-08-2022 08:37 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 06:13 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-07-2022 09:46 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-26-2022 06:02 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If the Super SEC ends up going to 24 teams and the Big 10 follows, I doubt anyone is going to have room for ND in the OOC as they’ll likely be playing 10 conference games. I think ND lands in the Super Big 10 simply due to lack of potential opponents. ND isn’t going to settle for independence if it means playing the Big 12, ACC, and PAC 12 leftovers. It’s a tough pill to swallow but the Big 10 is going to have the schools they want to play.

Looking around, I think these schools are likely all in hard spot:
ACC: BC, Cuse, WF
Big 12: Cincinnati, WVU, UCF, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston, BYU
PAC 12: Washington St, Oregon St, Utah

Bubble:
ACC: Pitt, Duke, GT, L’ville, NC St, Miami
Big 12: Kansas, Iowa St
PAC 12: Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St

Likely in a Super Conference:
ACC: Florida St, Clemson, VT, UVA, UNC
Big 12: None
Pac 12: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington

Alternatively, I think the SEC could end up as entity unto its own (with the addition of some ACC schools) while the Big Ten, PAC 12, ACC, Big 12, & ND stage their own playoff.

No doubt the pursuit of money is a very powerful force in society, and that is true of academia and intercollegiate sports as well. But I believe many fans continue to underestimate the power of another force -- inertia -- which dominates academics' behavior.

I do see the top football schools - that is to say the P5 - becoming a separate entity, whether that is inside the NCAA or outside of it. I don't see any of them being left behind in a pay for play world, and I don't see a P2 acting separately. At the same time, I doubt we'll see three 24 team conferences. I don't even think we will wind up with symmetry in conference/division size. But I do think that both the SEC and B1G will grow with culturally compatible brands, and that will result in a reduction from P5 to P4. I think the ACC is the conference that will have to die for this to happen.

I could see the B1G taking in ACC schools (including Notre Dame) as a new 7 team division, bringing them to 21 teams in total. The teams I would guess would be considered academically compatible to the B1G and valuable enough from a brand standpoint to justify that growth are: Notre Dame, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Pitt, Georgia Tech and Duke. I think those schools would also be willing and interested in staying together.

For its part, I think the SEC would accept Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Virginia Tech and Kansas, creating these 7 team divisions:

Clemson, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State and Kentucky
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Vandy
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri and Kansas

The PAC remains unchanged thanks to geography and academic snobbery. That leaves The Big 12 to absorb the remaining four ACC schools as part of an 8 team eastern division:

West Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, UCF and USF.

The western division consists of:
Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston and BYU.

These four conferences have their own postseason play, with the three conferences of 16 or more teams having a three game, four team CCT in the first two weeks of December. On New Year's Day, the B1G champ plays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 12 champ in the Sugar Bowl. The winners of those two bowls play each other for the championship of whatever they call this new, separate division.

The other four NY6 bowls match 8 non champions on or around New Year's Day. All six rotate as hosts of the National Championship game.

The 70 teams in this division will be required to play 10 games against division opponents, and no more than 2 games against other NCAA FBS schools (but no FCS schools).

Most important, each of these four conferences (and all other conferences) make their own rules about player compensation, mobility and eligibility, and are responsible for policing compliance with their own rules.

Ken, ESPN would have to have a really good reason to allow those 7 to move to the B1G.
Perhaps for allowing those teams out of their contracts ESPN would gain access to B1G product? This has to be a concern at ESPN. CBS promoting B1G product on Saturdays just might take back some of the SEC's "new" audience, and it's possible that the mouse may lose access to B1G product in the process.

If I were the B1G and wanted to pursue that expansion strategy, I would tweak your seven to close off the Va/NC markets. My seven would be Kansas, UVa, Va. Tech, Carolina, NC State, Georgia Tech and Duke. At this point I would offer Notre Dame an ACC style partial with some restrictions to limit the number of SEC football games per year. Probably increasing the per year commitment for the B1G from 5 to 6 or 7.

I would align Maryland with their old ACC conference mates for a 7 team division.
Kansas rounds out the B1G west. Rutgers (bless their hearts) gets Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue where they will stay until the eventually cry "uncle", drop B1G membership and at that time are replaced by Pitt.

If the B1G is going to make that move, there is no way they would want to split any portion of RTP.

What academics don't understand about business strategy is laughable. Nobody wants to buy the cow when it can simply milk it. There are 6 schools which account for 72.4% of the Big 10's value. You want the games between those schools, not the whole product. ESPN doesn't care about the research triangle. It cares about holding ad leverage in Virginia and North Carolina and holding it as efficiently as possible. And it cares about tying it into the largest potential viewing base.

The ACC has the most potential households already. What you don't have is their attention. ESPN has the most attention focused upon the SEC. For them, North Carolina, either of the Virgina schools, Clemson, Florida State and Miami have the greatest upside in the SEC.

ESPN has built a monopoly of state brands from Virginia, across Kentucky, through Missouri, and into Kansas, and everything South. Why? That is the area with the most eyeballs week in and week out on college sports product. Yeah, Michigan and Ohio State had a game where they pulled 15 million, a game, and the only one in recent memory.

The schools they need to keep the advertising hammer over the Southeast and Southwest (the 2 most viewer saturated regions for college sports and among the fastest growing) are: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State or Duke, Florida State and Miami. Having both Virginia schools is necessary because just one doesn't deliver the highest ad rates in a state of nearly 10 million. UNC and NC State deliver North Carolina, but then UNC and Duke deliver not only the state but some Northeast interest as well. Florida is large enough that having UF, FSU, and Miami simply triple dip 27 million, the way A&M and Texas double dip 29 million.

Actually JR, I will slightly disagree with that, although I could be wrong, but I would think that Oklahoma, Texas, and A&M triple dip Texas, much like how UF, FSU, and Miami triple dip Florida. And I would say that Georgia, Auburn, and GT triple dip the state of Georgia, just like again how Florida, FSU, and Miami do the state of Florida. Then again, maybe it is just UGA and Auburn doing a double dip in the state of Georgia.

(02-09-2022 10:49 AM)JRsec Wrote:  And yet the SEC's SOS is always higher than that of the ACC or the MAC playing B1G and somehow having the top of your conference body bag the Big 10 champs and their in state rivals from the ACC (which are usually the only competition of note for the SEC champs) isn't enough to put this asinine annual claim to rest (Clemson excepted as they usually have chicken dinner in November). So much smack from the schadenfreude crowd!

And for the record there are few playing FCS games now and those which do are usually making a schedule cover for cancellations. This past season Florida was at Missouri the week before playing FSU, South Carolina hosted Auburn the week before playing Clemson, Kentucky had New Mexico State. Seems like UGa was the only one playing below their weight with Charleston Southern (56-7 which isn't much different from 45-0), but finishing with Michigan and Alabama likely made up for that don't ya think?

You don't have to go to North Avenue to find people panning the SEC's November cupcakes. ESPN does it on the regular. Loudly.

(02-09-2022 09:31 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-09-2022 10:49 AM)JRsec Wrote:  And yet the SEC's SOS is always higher than that of the ACC or the MAC playing B1G and somehow having the top of your conference body bag the Big 10 champs and their in state rivals from the ACC (which are usually the only competition of note for the SEC champs) isn't enough to put this asinine annual claim to rest (Clemson excepted as they usually have chicken dinner in November). So much smack from the schadenfreude crowd!

And for the record there are few playing FCS games now and those which do are usually making a schedule cover for cancellations. This past season Florida was at Missouri the week before playing FSU, South Carolina hosted Auburn the week before playing Clemson, Kentucky had New Mexico State. Seems like UGa was the only one playing below their weight with Charleston Southern (56-7 which isn't much different from 45-0), but finishing with Michigan and Alabama likely made up for that don't ya think?

You don't have to go to North Avenue to find people panning the SEC's November cupcakes. ESPN does it on the regular. Loudly.

It's called a new contract. Likely 9 conference games. It's all noise! The SOS and conference product is the best available and they know it. It won't be long before all 12 are P games anyway. 1 more contract if we remain under NCAA control and immediately if we have a breakaway.

(02-09-2022 09:08 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-09-2022 06:30 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 05:25 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 04:03 PM)Statefan Wrote:  NC State will not consent to go to the B12.

If as JR writes Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Kansas join an expanded SEC, NC State and GT will not acquiesce to the B12. They will go to the B10 and the B10 will take them even if it is only to spite ESPN.

Nah. The Big 10 and PAC 12 AAU schools would likely form another 23 and either Pitt or Kansas, or Iowa State would make 24 if ND remained aloof. If it's Kansas it opens another slot.

IMO Duke - K is no slam dunk. N.C. State has more upside and Duke is not an imperative if UNC & Kansas are in, especially as SEC hoops get stronger. The question is what does UNC push for, and which one would ESPN prefer? The viewership #'s are in your favor but both would be way low by SEC standards.

We still do not know who will opt out of pay for play and I expect a few to do so.

It would remain more profitable for the SEC to take 4 (VaTech, UNC, Clemson, & FSU, and if Vandy opted out Miami). But it's not about the SEC. It's about ESPN.

Who knows what State's viewership would be if we were on television against someone other than James Madison or some other body bag. Part of ratings is who you are up against and who you are playing.

SEC teams don't play body bag games? Every SEC team played an FCS game in 2021 and that's not even counting the other G5 cupcakes they play.

Without the FCS who will the SEC schedule before rivalry week when the ACC is playing conference games? The most important thing is the opponent needs to be a push over so it's a half bye week half warm up. If the opponent has a pulse you're overscheduling by SEC standards.

Half the ACC is composed of body bag programs.

Gimme a break.

Of course the fly in the ointment to all of these scenarios is the ACC's contract with ESPN. We all know it's horrible.
BUT....it binds the ACC (and Notre Dame) to ESPN through the 2035-36 school year. The contract also obligates ESPN to pay all of the ACC schools through the same time period.
In order for any of these scenarios where some ACC schools move to the B1G and others perhaps to the SEC (or even to the Big East or Big 12) something has to be done with that contract.
All parties would have to agree. Which means the schools (even Wake Forest, BC and Syracuse) would have to be paid AND ESPN would have to receive enough value from somebody for that company to allow any ACC schools to move to another media platform. Otherwise the 16 schools that will make up the SEC and the 14 5/8 schools that make up the ACC are going to be roommates for another 14 years.

My goodness - I just saw this thread now.

I'm still having a really hard time understanding the point of an SEC superconference when they just added the single most valuable piece of them all: Texas.

After adding Texas, virtually every single other expansion candidate is providing diminishing returns.

Having said that, I would concede that the SEC would take UNC and UVA if they actually wanted to move there. (So would the Big Ten.) I think the SEC interest in Florida State is conceivable in the sense that a UF/FSU combo would lock down a critically important state (Florida) in the same manner as the UT/A&M combo in Texas. I've long felt that any SEC interest in Clemson is overrated and colored by recent on-the-field results as opposed to off-the-field metrics.

Note that I don't believe any of the above will happen. IMHO, the UT/OU combo is the single most valuable expansion that any conference could reasonably expect and it was achieved with the addition of only 2 schools. Remember that any other combo actually has to add *more* than that UT/OU combo since you have to spread the pie among a larger number of members and I just don't see it. Getting larger for the sake of getting larger simply isn't the goal of conference realignment - it has to make business sense.

Finally, any notion of Notre Dame going to the SEC is absolutely bats**t crazy even by the standards of this message board. If their goal was to maximize TV money, then they would have joined the Big Ten a decade ago. It's pretty clear to me that independence in and of itself is what matters and that's a bright line issue for their alums. ND is the one school where alumni donations *do* matter because their alums send checks there religiously as they would to an actual church. ND's endowment is larger than half of the Ivy League - the direct football dollars are effectively rounding error compared to their insane level of alumni support and those alums have made it clear that independence is non-negotiable.

(02-10-2022 11:31 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My goodness - I just saw this thread now.

I'm still having a really hard time understanding the point of an SEC superconference when they just added the single most valuable piece of them all: Texas.

After adding Texas, virtually every single other expansion candidate is providing diminishing returns.

Having said that, I would concede that the SEC would take UNC and UVA if they actually wanted to move there. (So would the Big Ten.) I think the SEC interest in Florida State is conceivable in the sense that a UF/FSU combo would lock down a critically important state (Florida) in the same manner as the UT/A&M combo in Texas. I've long felt that any SEC interest in Clemson is overrated and colored by recent on-the-field results as opposed to off-the-field metrics.

Note that I don't believe any of the above will happen. IMHO, the UT/OU combo is the single most valuable expansion that any conference could reasonably expect and it was achieved with the addition of only 2 schools. Remember that any other combo actually has to add *more* than that UT/OU combo since you have to spread the pie among a larger number of members and I just don't see it. Getting larger for the sake of getting larger simply isn't the goal of conference realignment - it has to make business sense.

Finally, any notion of Notre Dame going to the SEC is absolutely bats**t crazy even by the standards of this message board. If their goal was to maximize TV money, then they would have joined the Big Ten a decade ago. It's pretty clear to me that independence in and of itself is what matters and that's a bright line issue for their alums. ND is the one school where alumni donations *do* matter because their alums send checks there religiously as they would to an actual church. ND's endowment is larger than half of the Ivy League - the direct football dollars are effectively rounding error compared to their insane level of alumni support and those alums have made it clear that independence is non-negotiable.

You have the ND alumni/fan attitude exactly right.

After 30 plus years of conference realignment (beginning with Penn State to the Big Ten) and five million threads on message boards, dozens of articles, numerous Jack Swarbrick quotes, many people still don't get this.

Now, with pay for play, a possible breakaway and other things, I will not make an absolute statement that ND football will always remain an independent, but your post is absolutely correct about the attitude of ND towards football conference membership.

I doubt seriously that ND football will ever join the ACC. It simply does not make business sense for ND to do so.

As much as it pains me, if ND HAD to (at figurative gunpoint) give up football independence, it likely would hold its nose and join the Big Ten for about $90 million a year-----if the ACC is picked apart and only two super conferences remain---and ND had no other viable options to remain relevant regarding "big time", top level football.

Other than that level of complete upheaval, you are right. ND will remain a football independent indefinitely.

(02-10-2022 11:31 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My goodness - I just saw this thread now.

I'm still having a really hard time understanding the point of an SEC superconference when they just added the single most valuable piece of them all: Texas.

After adding Texas, virtually every single other expansion candidate is providing diminishing returns.

Having said that, I would concede that the SEC would take UNC and UVA if they actually wanted to move there. (So would the Big Ten.) I think the SEC interest in Florida State is conceivable in the sense that a UF/FSU combo would lock down a critically important state (Florida) in the same manner as the UT/A&M combo in Texas. I've long felt that any SEC interest in Clemson is overrated and colored by recent on-the-field results as opposed to off-the-field metrics.

Note that I don't believe any of the above will happen. IMHO, the UT/OU combo is the single most valuable expansion that any conference could reasonably expect and it was achieved with the addition of only 2 schools. Remember that any other combo actually has to add *more* than that UT/OU combo since you have to spread the pie among a larger number of members and I just don't see it. Getting larger for the sake of getting larger simply isn't the goal of conference realignment - it has to make business sense.

Finally, any notion of Notre Dame going to the SEC is absolutely bats**t crazy even by the standards of this message board. If their goal was to maximize TV money, then they would have joined the Big Ten a decade ago. It's pretty clear to me that independence in and of itself is what matters and that's a bright line issue for their alums. ND is the one school where alumni donations *do* matter because their alums send checks there religiously as they would to an actual church. ND's endowment is larger than half of the Ivy League - the direct football dollars are effectively rounding error compared to their insane level of alumni support and those alums have made it clear that independence is non-negotiable.

You just keep thinking like a president Frank while networks continue to surprise you. Conferences are merely dancing for dollars and to whatever tune is played.

As I've explained carefully many times, the SEC likely isn't interested in Clemson. ESPN is interested in the value of Clemson vs an SEC slate as it maximizes Clemson's value for them. Is the SEC interested in UVa or Va Tech and UNC? Sure. But ESPN again will shelter whatever brands they value most in the SEC and will likely buy the B12 rights outright and park economy brands there.

What's moe Frank the B1G is far more vulnerable than many realize. That happens when 72.4% of the B1G's value resides in 6 schools. It means you have 7 holding the top 6 back and 1 at neutral value.

I'm going to enjoy watching this play out for those who perceive themselves to be masters of the world. Only the Big 12 had more power concentrated in fewer schools than the Big 10 and of that 72.4% nearly half of that is Michigan and Ohio State.

Why is a lowballed PAC relatively safe? Aside from geography they, along with the SEC have the most equitable spreading of value. That means they are hard to kill. The ACC would be relatively healthy if not more tightly sharing markets with the B1G and SEC.

So, while the B1G is stable now, as money drives more sports value and as Federal and State revenue shrinks, and as presidents finally grasp the dichotomy of Academic endeavors and pay for play athletics, associations that try to shoehorn academics and athletics under one umbrella will fail because each limits the other and they will discover the importance of separating them and when they do Michigan and Ohio State and likely Penn State will look to maximize sports values by leaving B1G laggards behind, just like Texas and Oklahoma.

But you can keep drinking the Kool-Aid and I bet you Notre Dame wakes up first, not to conference membership but to how their location and natural rivals put Disney in areas of the country where their market dominance isn't as great and for a lot less than B1G money.