.

AAC started #8 in the conference rankings, now back up to #7th.

Conference rankings according to 5 ranking systems, 12/14/21: .


SCROLL DOWN TO SEE UPDATES FOLLOWING IN LATER POSTS, BELOW.

....................................................................................................Projected
...........................Massey..................................................................NCAA
...............NET*...Composite....Torvik.....Sagarin....RPI^...Median(Mean)...Bids~
#1 Big12.....1............1..............1............1..........3..........1.0(1.4)..........7
#2 Big10.....3............2..............2............2..........1..........2.0(2.0)..........8.3
#3 BigEast...2............3..............4............3..........2.........3.0(2.8)..........6
#4 SEC........4............4..............3............4..........4.........4.0(3.8)..........8
#5 PAC........6............6..............5............5..........6.........6.0(5.6)..........3
#6 ACC.......5.............5..............6............6..........7.........6.0(5.8)..........5.4
#7 MWC......7............7...............7............8..........5.........7.0(6.8)..........1.9+
#8 AAC.......8............8...............9............7.........11........8.0(8.6)..........2.5@
#9 WCC......9............9...............8............9..........9.........9.0(8.8)..........4
#10 A-10...10..........10.............10..........10.........10.......10.0(10.0)........1
#11 SoCon.11..........12.............12..........12..........8........12.0(11.0).......1.4
#12 CUSA..12..........11.............13..........13.........13.......13.0(12.4)........1
#13 MVC...13..........13.............11..........11..........23.......13.0(14.2)........1
#14 CAA....14..........15.............14..........15.........18.......15.0(15.2)........1
#15 MAC...18...........14.............19.........16..........12.......16.0(15.8).......1.4
#16 WAC...15..........17.............15..........19..........14.......15.0(16.0).......1
#17 SBC....19..........16.............16.........18...........15.......16.0(16.8).......1
#18 Ivy.....16..........19.............18..........14...........21......18.0(7.6).........1

*According to warrennolan.com
^According to realtimerpi.com
~According to bracketmatrix.com

NOTE: A conference can have a ".5 bid" for each team that is projected to earn a NCAA bid by approximately half the bracketologists surveyed by bracketmatrix.com.

@Houston (3 seed), Memphis (7 seed), Wichita St. (possible 11 seed)

+CSU (11 seed), SDSU (possible 11 seed), Utah St. (possible 11 seed)

.

(12-14-2021 02:21 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

Conference rankings according to 5 ranking systems, 12/14/21:
....................................................................................................Projected
...........................Massey..................................................................NCAA
...............NET*...Composite....Torvik.....Sagarin....RPI^...Median(Mean)...Bids~
#1 Big12.....1............1..............1............1..........3..........1.0(1.4)..........7
#2 Big10.....3............2..............2............2..........1..........2.0(2.0)..........8.3
#3 BigEast...2............3..............4............3..........2.........3.0(2.8)..........6
#4 SEC........4............4..............3............4..........4.........4.0(3.8)..........8
#5 PAC........6............6..............5............5..........6.........6.0(5.6)..........3
#6 ACC.......5.............5..............6............6..........7.........6.0(5.8)..........5.4
#7 MWC......7............7...............7............8..........5.........7.0(6.8)..........1.9+
#8 AAC.......8............8...............9............7.........11........8.0(8.6)..........2.5@
#9 WCC......9............9...............8............9..........9.........9.0(8.8)..........4
#10 A-10...10..........10.............10..........10.........10.......10.0(10.0)........1
#11 SoCon.11..........12.............12..........12..........8........12.0(11.0).......1.4
#12 CUSA..12..........11.............13..........13.........13.......13.0(12.4)........1
#13 MVC...13..........13.............11..........11..........23.......13.0(14.2)........1
#14 CAA....14..........15.............14..........15.........18.......15.0(15.2)........1
#15 MAC...18...........14.............19.........16..........12.......16.0(15.8).......1.4
#16 WAC...15..........17.............15..........19..........14.......15.0(16.0).......1
#17 SBC....19..........16.............16.........18...........15.......16.0(16.8).......1
#18 Ivy.....16..........19.............18..........14...........21......18.0(7.6).........1

*According to warrennolan.com
^According to realtimerpi.com
~According to bracketmatrix.com

NOTE: A conference can have a ".5 bid" for each team that is projected to earn a NCAA bid by approximately half the bracketologists surveyed by bracketmatrix.com.

@Houston (3 seed), Memphis (7 seed), Wichita St. (possible 11 seed)

+CSU (11 seed), SDSU (possible 11 seed), Utah St. (possible 11 seed)

.

What? The A-10 is not better than the AAC? Those poor folks who want Temple to make a UCONN type move... ...to a BB conference expected to get 1 bid.

(12-14-2021 02:48 AM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  What? The A-10 is not better than the AAC? Those poor folks who want Temple to make a UCONN type move... ...to a BB conference expected to get 1 bid.

True, and the A-10 finished 9th in the Massey Composite conference rankings in both 2020 and 2021, and 10th in 2018 and 2019. The A-10 sent 3 teams per year to the NCAA from 2014 to 2018, but only 2 in 2019 and 2021.

Thus, the trends in the battle for 7th place have been moving against, not for the A-10, and this probably helps to make it clear why they've decided to add Loyola of Chicago. The Atlantic 10 appeared to be in danger of becoming a one-bid league.

.

Some of the A-10 teams have really been a puzzlement this season. For example, St. Bonaventure has wins over (7-4) Boise, (7-4) Clemson, and (#8-3) Marquette, but lost at home to (2-5) Northern Iowa.


Similarly, Dayton has wins over (8-1) Kansas, (8-3) Miami (FL), (8-3) Belmont, and (7-4) Virginia Tech, but has also lost to (7-4) MA Lowell, (5-6) Lipscomb, & (3-4) Austin Peay.

.

.

UPDATE: 12/17/21.


....................................................................................................Projected
...........................Massey..................................................................NCAA
...............NET*...Composite....Torvik.....Sagarin....RPI^...Median(Mean)...Bids~
#1 Big12.....1............1..............1............1..........3..........1.0(1.4)..........7
#2 Big10.....3............2..............2............2..........1..........2.0(2.0)..........8.3
#3 BigEast...2............3..............4............3..........2.........3.0(2.8)..........6
#4 SEC........4............4..............3............4..........4.........4.0(3.8)..........8
#5 PAC........6............6..............6............5..........6.........6.0(5.6)..........3
#6 ACC.......5.............5..............5............6..........7.........6.0(5.8)..........5.4
#7 MWC......7............7...............7............8..........5.........7.0(6.8)..........1.7+
#8 AAC.......8............8...............8............7.........10........8.0(8.2)..........2.5@
#9 WCC......9............9...............9............9..........8.........9.0(8.8)..........3.5
#10 A-10...10..........10.............10..........10.........11.......10.0(10.2)........1
#11 SoCon.11..........12.............12..........12..........9........12.0(11.2).......1
#12 CUSA..12..........11.............13..........13.........14.......13.0(12.6)........1
#13 MVC...13..........13.............11..........11..........22.......13.0(14.0)........1
#14 CAA....14..........15.............14..........15.........16.......15.0(14.8)........1
#15 MAC...17...........14.............17.........16..........12.......16.0(15.8).......1
#16 SBC....18..........16.............15.........18...........13.......16.0(16.0).......1
#17 WAC...19..........17.............16..........19..........15.......17.0(17.2).......1
#18 BWC...15..........18.............18..........18..........17.......18.0 (17.2)......1
#19 Ivy.....16..........19.............19..........14..........20........19.0(17.6)......1

*According to warrennolan.com
^According to realtimerpi.com
~According to bracketmatrix.com

NOTE: A conference can have a ".5 bid" for each team that is projected to earn a NCAA bid by approximately half the bracketologists surveyed by bracketmatrix.com.

@Houston (3 seed), Memphis (7 seed), Wichita St. (possible 11 seed)

+CSU (11 seed), SDSU (possible 11 seed), Utah St. (possible 11 seed)

Latest NCAA Net (Ken Pom in parenthesis)

3 Houston (3)

50 Memphis (34)
57 Cincy (76)
65 UCF (55)
75 SMU (70)
83 Wichita St (73)

119 Temple (128)
143 Tulane (137)
155 East Carolina (157)
180 Tulsa(140)

254 USF (247)

(01-08-2022 11:31 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Latest NCAA Net (Ken Pom in parenthesis)

3 Houston (3)

50 Memphis (34)
57 Cincy (76)
65 UCF (55)
75 SMU (70)
83 Wichita St (73)

119 Temple (128)
143 Tulane (137)
155 East Carolina (157)
180 Tulsa(140)

254 USF (247)

While its early in the season...3 out of the 4 top AAC Teams will be bolting to join the Big 12...as the AAC will take a huge hit in overall ratings once those 3 teams leave.

(12-14-2021 02:21 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .


Conference rankings according to 5 ranking systems, 12/14/21: .

UPDATES FOLLOW IN LATER POSTS, BELOW.

....................................................................................................Projected
...........................Massey..................................................................NCAA
...............NET*...Composite....Torvik.....Sagarin....RPI^...Median(Mean)...Bids~
#1 Big12.....1............1..............1............1..........3..........1.0(1.4)..........7
#2 Big10.....3............2..............2............2..........1..........2.0(2.0)..........8.3
#3 BigEast...2............3..............4............3..........2.........3.0(2.8)..........6
#4 SEC........4............4..............3............4..........4.........4.0(3.8)..........8
#5 PAC........6............6..............5............5..........6.........6.0(5.6)..........3
#6 ACC.......5.............5..............6............6..........7.........6.0(5.8)..........5.4
#7 MWC......7............7...............7............8..........5.........7.0(6.8)..........1.9+
#8 AAC.......8............8...............9............7.........11........8.0(8.6)..........2.5@
#9 WCC......9............9...............8............9..........9.........9.0(8.8)..........4
#10 A-10...10..........10.............10..........10.........10.......10.0(10.0)........1
#11 SoCon.11..........12.............12..........12..........8........12.0(11.0).......1.4
#12 CUSA..12..........11.............13..........13.........13.......13.0(12.4)........1
#13 MVC...13..........13.............11..........11..........23.......13.0(14.2)........1
#14 CAA....14..........15.............14..........15.........18.......15.0(15.2)........1
#15 MAC...18...........14.............19.........16..........12.......16.0(15.8).......1.4
#16 WAC...15..........17.............15..........19..........14.......15.0(16.0).......1
#17 SBC....19..........16.............16.........18...........15.......16.0(16.8).......1
#18 Ivy.....16..........19.............18..........14...........21......18.0(7.6).........1

*According to warrennolan.com
^According to realtimerpi.com
~According to bracketmatrix.com

NOTE: A conference can have a ".5 bid" for each team that is projected to earn a NCAA bid by approximately half the bracketologists surveyed by bracketmatrix.com.

@Houston (3 seed), Memphis (7 seed), Wichita St. (possible 11 seed)

+CSU (11 seed), SDSU (possible 11 seed), Utah St. (possible 11 seed)

.

Wait until tourney bids come, the ACC number of bids will be far better than their performances should indicate.

NET Rankings as of 1/9/2021
Houston 14-2 #4
Memphis 9-5 #51
UCF 9-4 #62
UC 11-5 #63
SMU 11-4 #72
WSU 9-5 #73
Temple 9-6 #122
Tulane 6-7 #134
ECU 10-4 #152
Tulsa 6-7 #177
USF 5-9 #259

Future Schools
UAB 13-4 #42
North Texas 9-4 #58
Charlotte 7-5 #157
Rice 9-5 #164
FAU 8-6 #171
UTSA 7-9 #334

Overall the league has improved the bottoms, only USF under 200
The top two newcomers can replace UC, UCF
Losing Houston hurts big time
UTSA being even worse than USF is bad.

So new league would have only 2 teams under 200 and 5 better than 100

Definitely worse than now but not as bad as it looked earlier.

(01-09-2022 06:53 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  NET Rankings as of 1/9/2021
Houston 14-2 #4
Memphis 9-5 #51
UCF 9-4 #62
UC 11-5 #63
SMU 11-4 #72
WSU 9-5 #73
Temple 9-6 #122
Tulane 6-7 #134
ECU 10-4 #152
Tulsa 6-7 #177
USF 5-9 #259

Future Schools
UAB 13-4 #42
North Texas 9-4 #58
Charlotte 7-5 #157
Rice 9-5 #164
FAU 8-6 #171
UTSA 7-9 #334

Overall the league has improved the bottoms, only USF under 200
The top two newcomers can replace UC, UCF
Losing Houston hurts big time
UTSA being even worse than USF is bad.

So new league would have only 2 teams under 200 and 5 better than 100

Definitely worse than now but not as bad as it looked earlier.

The Net is just so volatile...

How does WSU go from 83 to 73 with losing by 10 to Houston...I am assuming a bunch of their other opponents had really good days.

UPDATED 1/8/22:


Conference rankings according to 5 ranking systems, : .

....................................................................................................Projected
...........................Massey..................................................................NCAA
...............NET*...Composite....Torvik.....Sagarin....RPI^...Median(Mean)...Bids~
#1 Big12.....1............1..............1............1..........1..........1.0(1.4)..........8
#2 Big10.....2............2..............2............2..........3..........2.0(2.2)..........8.3
#3 BigEast...3............3..............4............4..........2.........3.0(2.8)..........6.3
#4 SEC........4............4..............3............3..........4.........4.0(3.8)..........7
#5 ACC.......5.............5..............4............5..........7.........5.0(5.8)..........4.6
#6 PAC........6............6..............5............6..........6.........6.0(5.6)..........3
#7 AAC.......7............7...............7............7..........8........7.0(8.6)..........2.2@
#8 MWC......8............8...............8............8..........5.........8.0(6.8).........2.2+
#9 WCC.....10...........9...............9............9..........9.........9.0(8.8)..........4
#10 A-10.....9..........10.............10..........10.........10.......10.0(10.0)........1.2
#11 MVC...11..........11.............11..........11..........16.......11.0(12.0)........1
#12 SoCon.12..........12.............12..........13.........11........12.0(12.0).......1
#13 CUSA..13..........13.............13..........12.........12.......13.0(12.6)........1
#14 CAA....14..........14.............14..........14.........13.......14.0(13.8)........1
#15 SBC....15..........15.............16.........17...........15.......15.0(15.6).......1
#16 WAC...16..........16.............15..........18..........14.......16.0(15.8).......1
#17 MAC...18...........17............18..........16..........18.......18.0(17.4).......1
#19 Ivy.....19..........19.............19..........15...........21......19.0(18.6).......1

*According to warrennolan.com
^According to realtimerpi.com
~According to bracketmatrix.com

NOTE: A conference can have a ".5 bid" for each team that is projected to earn a NCAA bid by approximately half the bracketologists surveyed by bracketmatrix.com.

@Houston (3 seed), Memphis (11 seed), UCF (possible 11 seed)

+CSU (7 seed), SDSU (possible 12 seed), Boise St. (possible 11 seed)

.

(01-09-2022 08:58 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  Wait until tourney bids come, the ACC number of bids will be far better than their performances should indicate.

That may happen, but the AAC is now projected to get fewer bids since that was posted.

................................................................MASSEY
..............................NET........KENPOM......COMPOSITE....BRACKET MATRIX.COM
..................................................................................predicted seed (votes)

Houston 14-2.........#4...............3.................9........ .....3 (60 bracketologies)
Memphis* 9-5.......#51.............34................41... ........10 (33 bracketologies)
UCF* 9-4..............#62.............55.................51............11 (13 bracketologies)
UC* 11-5..............#63.............75^...............89^............NA (possible NIT team)
SMU* 11-4...........#72^............70.................61............NA (possible NIT team)
WSU* 9-5............#73^............74^...............76^............NA (possible NIT team)
Temple 9-6............#122............128.............131
Tulane 6-7.............#134............137.............151
ECU 10-4...............#152...........157.............139
Tulsa 6-7...............#177............140............156
USF 5-9.................#259...........247.............244

Future AAC Schools:

UAB 13-4...............#42............48................48............12 (57 bracketologies)
North Texas* 9-4..#58............83^...............65.............12 (2 bracketologies)
Charlotte 7-5.........#157...........208.............158
Rice 9-5................#164...........168.............184
FAU 8-6................#171...........179..............231
UTSA 7-9..............#334...........312..............299

*Possible NIT team.

AAC seems a likely 2-bid conference unless a dark horse wins the AAC tourney.

NOTE: The AAC has received more than 2 NIT bids.

The NIT is a 32-team tournament, with 20-22 at-large bids (10-12 bids/year have gone to conference champions that failed to win their conference tourneys).

The total number of NCAA (35) and NIT (20-22) at-large teams has ranged between 55 and 60 since the NCAA and NIT fields have had 68 and 32 teams.

In addition to automatic qualifiers, all but a few of the nation's 45 most-highly ranked teams have tended to receive NCAA bids in a typical year, and all but a few of the nation's 70 most-highly ranked teams have received NCAA or NIT bids.

^Teams with NET rankings between 71 and 100 have been less likely than more highly-ranked teams to receive NIT bids unless they won their regular season or conference tourney championships.

.

NCAA "locks" (1): Houston

Possible NCAA bubble teams (7): Memphis, UCF, SMU, WSU, UC, North Texas, UAB

Possible NIT teams (7): Memphis, UCF, SMU, WSU, UC, UAB, North Texas

Possible CBI (not NIT) bids (7): UCF, SMU, WSU, UC, North Texas, Temple, ECU

NOTE: Teams that have played in previous CBI tournaments are italicized.

Teams that might receive CBI or CIT bids, if they finish >.500: Charlotte, Rice, FAU

.

UPDATED 1/15/22:


Conference rankings according to 5 ranking systems, : .

....................................................................................................Projected
...........................Massey..................................................................NCAA
...............NET*...Composite....Torvik-....Sagarin....RPI^...Median(Mean)...Bids~
#1 Big12.....1............1..............1............1..........1..........1.0(1.4).........7.3
#2 Big10.....2............2..............2............2..........3..........2.0(2.2).........8.2
#3 BigEast...3............3..............4............4..........2.........3.0(2.8)..........7
#4 SEC........4............4..............3............3..........4.........4.0(3.8)..........7
#5 ACC.......5.............5..............4............5..........7.........5.0(5.8)..........4.8
#6 PAC........6............6..............5............6..........6.........6.0(5.6)..........3
#7 AAC.......7............7...............7............7..........8........7.0(8.6)..........2@
#8 MWC......8............8...............8............8..........5.........8.0(6.8).........2.2+
#9 WCC.....10...........9...............9............9..........9.........9.0(8.8)..........4
#10 A-10.....9..........10.............10..........10.........10.......10.0(10.0)........1.3
#11 MVC...11..........11.............11..........11..........16.......11.0(12.0)........1
#12 SoCon.12..........13.............12..........13.........11........12.0(12.2).......1
#13 CUSA..13..........12.............13..........12.........12.......12.0(12.4)........1
#14 CAA....14..........14.............14..........14.........13.......14.0(13.8)........1
#15 SBC....15..........15.............15.........17...........15.......15.0(15.6).......1
#16 WAC...16..........16.............16..........18..........14.......16.0(15.8).......1
#17 MAC...18...........17............18..........16..........18.......18.0(17.4).......1
#19 Ivy.....19..........19.............19..........15...........21......19.0(18.6).......1

*According to warrennolan.com
^According to realtimerpi.com
- According to barttorvik.com
~According to bracketmatrix.com

NOTE: A conference can have a ".5 bid" for each team that is projected to earn a NCAA bid by approximately half the bracketologists surveyed by bracketmatrix.com.

@Houston (3 seed), Memphis (12 seed); possibly UCF (5 votes)

+CSU (8 seed), SDSU (9 seed); possibly Wyoming, Boise, FSU, USU (1-14 votes).

................................................................MASSEY
..............................NET........KENPOM......COMPOSITE....BRACKET MATRIX.COM
..................................................................................predicted seed (votes)

Houston 14-2.........#5...............3.................7..............3 (74 bracketologies)
Memphis* 9-6.......#57.............38................38............11/12 (59 bracketologies)
UCF 10-4............#52.............52.................62.............11/12 (5 bracketologies)(possible NIT team)
UC 11-5..............#67.............73^...............80^............NA (possible NIT team)
SMU 12-4...........#80^............78^...............69.............NA (possible NIT team)
WSU* 9-6............#88^............86^...............81^.........NA (possible NIT team?)
Temple 10-6...........#118............126.............119...........NA (possible CBI team?)
Tulane 7-7.............#126............129.............145
ECU 10-5...............#146...........153.............132
Tulsa 6-8...............#188............145............153
USF 5-10...............#257............241.............249

Future AAC Schools:

UAB 14-4...............#40............43................44............12 (58 bracketologies)
North Texas*.10-4.#60............79^...............68...........13 (1 bracketology)
Charlotte 8-5.........#142...........191.............156
Rice 9-6................#177...........177.............149
FAU 8-7................#189...........192..............199
UTSA 7-10............#342...........324..............306

*May be about as likely to get a CBI bid as they are to get a NIT bid.

AAC seems a likely 2-bid conference unless a dark horse wins the AAC tourney.

NOTE: The AAC has received more than 2 NIT bids.

The NIT is a 32-team tournament, with 20-22 at-large bids (10-12 bids/year have gone to conference champions that failed to win their conference tourneys).

The total number of NCAA (35) and NIT (20-22) at-large teams has ranged between 55 and 60 since the NCAA and NIT fields have had 68 and 32 teams.

In addition to automatic qualifiers, all but a few of the nation's 45 most-highly ranked teams have tended to receive NCAA bids in a typical year, and all but a few of the nation's 70 most-highly ranked teams have received NCAA or NIT bids.

^Teams with NET rankings between 71 and 100 have been less likely than more highly-ranked teams to receive NIT bids unless they won their regular season or conference tourney championships.

.

NCAA "locks" (1): Houston

Probable NCAA teams (2): Houston, Memphis (?), UCF (?) (+UAB or NTU)

NCAA "bubble teams" (6) Memphis, UCF, SMU, UC, UAB, North Texas

Possible NIT teams (7): Memphis, UCF, SMU, WSU, UC, UAB, North Texas

Possible CBI (not NIT) bids (7): SMU, WSU, UC, North Texas, Temple, ECU

NOTE: UCF, WSU, UC, UAB, & North Texas have played in previous CBI tournaments.

Teams that might receive a CBI or CIT bid, if they finish >.500: Charlotte, Rice, FAU

.