With some nuggets from Matt Brown and his podcast (if you don't know who he is, look him up-very reliable), here is my latest prediction for the conference realignment dominoes.

Air Force, Colorado State, and UAB are rumored to be close to finalizing the deal to join the AAC. I don't think Army will leave independence. Therefore, I think the 4th school will be Rice.

West: Air Force, Colorado State, Rice, SMU, Navy, Tulsa
East: UAB, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, USF, Temple

At this point, the Mountain West is up. They are down to 9 Olympic members and 10 football members. Their options include trying to add Gonzaga, add some combination of NMSU and Texas schools or add FCS powers NDSU or Montana. I originally thought Gonzaga would go to the MW, but seeing as it is not a major league in basketball, Gonzaga continues to be the big fish in the small WCC pond. Adding FCS schools would definitely hurt the brand even if they could compete. New Mexico will not allow New Mexico State to join the league. None of the remaining teams in TX really move the need brand-wise so the MW decides to offer Hawaii full membership to get to 10 in both sports.

West: San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Boise State
East: Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada

The MAC looks around and decides to stay put at 12.

This leaves a duel between C-USA and the Sun Belt.

A small reorganization ensues. The Sun Belt picks off Southern Miss and FAU, and C-USA counters by grabbing Texas State and NMSU (to give UTEP a travel partner). This leaves the Sun Belt with 11 schools (13 in Olympics) and C-USA with 12 schools. The two basketball schools in the Sun Belt leave for basketball conferences (UT-Arlington to the MVC with Belmont; Little Rock heads off to the SoCon). The Sun Belt then decides to get back to 12 by adding Liberty.

Sun Belt:
West: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Louisiana, UL-Monroe, Arkansas State, Troy
East: Liberty, FAU, App State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State

C-USA:
West: NMSU, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas State, LaTech
East: Marshall, FIU, ODU, Charlotte, WKU, MTSU

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, Army, UConn, and UMass

Very detailed stuff. Curious as to why the SBC goes after FAU, former member, rather than the fan favorite Marshall? Maybe Marshall would just rather stay in CUSA?

(09-22-2021 10:08 PM)Big Buds Wrote:  Very detailed stuff. Curious as to why the SBC goes after FAU, former member, rather than the fan favorite Marshall? Maybe Marshall would just rather stay in CUSA?

Marshall values basketball, and (even with a UAB defection) C-USA is the better basketball league.

(09-22-2021 10:10 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:08 PM)Big Buds Wrote:  Very detailed stuff. Curious as to why the SBC goes after FAU, former member, rather than the fan favorite Marshall? Maybe Marshall would just rather stay in CUSA?

Marshall values basketball, and (even with a UAB defection) C-USA is the better basketball league.

LMAO....STOP.

You know absolutely nothing about Marshall. Yes we value basketball, a lot more than the SBC schools to be fair, but we are still a football first school.

I see no reason to go for Rice if the goal is schools with strong football or potential with football in a strong market. Rice is a small private school in a strong market but hasn't don't much of anything outside of the 2013 football title. If I were the AAC I'd fill that 4th spot with FAU, UNT, or UTSA.

(09-22-2021 10:10 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:08 PM)Big Buds Wrote:  Very detailed stuff. Curious as to why the SBC goes after FAU, former member, rather than the fan favorite Marshall? Maybe Marshall would just rather stay in CUSA?

Marshall values basketball, and (even with a UAB defection) C-USA is the better basketball league.

There is a negative 200 percent chance Liberty ever gets in the Sun Belt.

(09-22-2021 10:23 PM)space orange Wrote:  I see no reason to go for Rice if the goal is schools with strong football or potential with football in a strong market. Rice is a small private school in a strong market but hasn't don't much of anything outside of the 2013 football title. If I were the AAC I'd fill that 4th spot with FAU, UNT, or UTSA.

University presidents vote on this stuff. They would love to have another Tulane associated with their school, except this one is even better and comes in an enormous, rapidly growing city. It's the best school in the nation's second largest state, which also happens to be, by raw numbers rather than percentages, the fastest growing state as well.

Note that the conference office is in Texas, and there is only one member left in Texas. Note also that Tulsa, SMU, and Tulane are in the league, and they will be happy to have a fourth private school, an elite one at that. Navy will like the connection to Houston, as well, as would incoming member AFA.

Anyway, Rice is going to be a finalist, at the very least.

(09-22-2021 10:14 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:10 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:08 PM)Big Buds Wrote:  Very detailed stuff. Curious as to why the SBC goes after FAU, former member, rather than the fan favorite Marshall? Maybe Marshall would just rather stay in CUSA?

Marshall values basketball, and (even with a UAB defection) C-USA is the better basketball league.

LMAO....STOP.

You know absolutely nothing about Marshall. Yes we value basketball, a lot more than the SBC schools to be fair, but we are still a football first school.

The whole basketball argument is kinda silly to me since the league Marshall would be leaving rarely gets more than 1 bid either when it's all said and done. If CUSA was a multiple bid league in basketball it would be more of a basketball or football question to me, but they aren't.

(09-22-2021 10:32 PM)TealNation Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:14 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:10 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:08 PM)Big Buds Wrote:  Very detailed stuff. Curious as to why the SBC goes after FAU, former member, rather than the fan favorite Marshall? Maybe Marshall would just rather stay in CUSA?

Marshall values basketball, and (even with a UAB defection) C-USA is the better basketball league.

LMAO....STOP.

You know absolutely nothing about Marshall. Yes we value basketball, a lot more than the SBC schools to be fair, but we are still a football first school.

The whole basketball argument is kinda silly to me since the league Marshall would be leaving rarely gets more than 1 bid either when it's all said and done. If CUSA was a multiple bid league in basketball it would be more of a basketball or football question to me, but they aren't.

EXACTLY!

(09-22-2021 09:55 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Sun Belt:
West: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Louisiana, UL-Monroe, Arkansas State, Troy
East: Liberty, FAU, App State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State

C-USA:
West: NMSU, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas State, LaTech
East: Marshall, FIU, ODU, Charlotte, WKU, MTSU

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, Army, UConn, and UMass

FAwho?

Hard pass. No thanks.

If this is what the AAC sees as a back fill what are they actually getting.

AF is an academy but they haven't done much of anything since Fisher DeBerry retired.

Colorado State- Historically a mediocre to bad program. In the past 20 seasons they have 6 winning seasons and a break even season.

UAB- Had to be shut down to become a decent program. They still do not control their own fate. The UA bord is just waiting to hire them the next Neal Calloway.

Rice- Academics are great but seriously besides 2013 football and a year or so with Mike Rhodes in basketball Rice has stayed on the bottom of every conference standing. Rice was even the bottom of the baseball standing just last year.

These schools will not command the 7 million TV money, they won't or can't even command half of that at 3.5 million.

(09-22-2021 10:10 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:08 PM)Big Buds Wrote:  Very detailed stuff. Curious as to why the SBC goes after FAU, former member, rather than the fan favorite Marshall? Maybe Marshall would just rather stay in CUSA?

Marshall values basketball, and (even with a UAB defection) C-USA is the better basketball league.

HAHAHA. You obviously are clueless about what's most important to Marshall. Sure, we like basketball, but football drives the bus at Marshall, as at most schools. I know that confusing for a UConn fan, but please stick with what you know, and you clearly don't know Marshall.

So just to clarify things that won't happen

1. There is no chance in hell the SBC ever invites Liberty
2. Marshall aint making its realignment decisions based off of basketball.

(09-22-2021 10:27 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:10 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:08 PM)Big Buds Wrote:  Very detailed stuff. Curious as to why the SBC goes after FAU, former member, rather than the fan favorite Marshall? Maybe Marshall would just rather stay in CUSA?

Marshall values basketball, and (even with a UAB defection) C-USA is the better basketball league.

There is a negative 200 percent chance Liberty ever gets in the Sun Belt.

100% accurate

shizzle787 = Matt Brown?

(09-23-2021 12:36 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  So just to clarify things that won't happen

1. There is no chance in hell the SBC ever invites Liberty
2. Marshall aint making its realignment decisions based off of basketball.

I thought Marshall was going to make those decisions off of soccer.

(09-23-2021 12:36 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  So just to clarify things that won't happen

1. There is no chance in hell the SBC ever invites Liberty
2. Marshall aint making its realignment decisions based off of basketball.

I have no idea about #1, but #2 is accurate based on realistic conference options. If we had the option to join the Big East in basketball then that would change things, but that's never happening lol

(09-23-2021 07:15 AM)Usajags Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 12:36 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  So just to clarify things that won't happen

1. There is no chance in hell the SBC ever invites Liberty
2. Marshall aint making its realignment decisions based off of basketball.

I thought Marshall was going to make those decisions off of soccer.

Soccer will be more of a hold up than basketball imo....for the sole reason of every conference has basketball, and SBC doesn't currently offer soccer so we will have to find a home for soccer.

(09-23-2021 08:06 AM)herdfan129 Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 12:36 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  So just to clarify things that won't happen

1. There is no chance in hell the SBC ever invites Liberty
2. Marshall aint making its realignment decisions based off of basketball.

I have no idea about #1, but #2 is accurate based on realistic conference options. If we had the option to join the Big East in basketball then that would change things, but that's never happening lol

So now you guys would go back to FCS football so your basketball could be in the Big East??? Y’all are an interesting group up there.

(09-23-2021 08:06 AM)herdfan129 Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 12:36 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  So just to clarify things that won't happen

1. There is no chance in hell the SBC ever invites Liberty
2. Marshall aint making its realignment decisions based off of basketball.

I have no idea about #1, but #2 is accurate based on realistic conference options. If we had the option to join the Big East in basketball then that would change things, but that's never happening lol

We'll help you out here, #1 won't happen.

Liberty basically offered to generously pay each SBC Member to add them a few years ago and they got exactly zero votes. SBC Presidents have made it very clear this will be a public school league.