Just throwing out the question here: is there any scenario where expanding beyond 10 would make financial sense? My gut says no unless you’re going to land both of the other academies but part of the deal is also bringing in Rice to keep Navy playing games in the Houston market.

IMHO, the academies would be able to earn their keep and whose viewership would be above the league average. anyone else that you could potentially add is going to be on the low end of the media valuations.

(09-04-2021 10:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just throwing out the question here: is there any scenario where expanding beyond 10 would make financial sense? My gut says no unless you’re going to land both of the other academies but part of the deal is also bringing in Rice to keep Navy playing games in the Houston market.

IMHO, the academies would be able to earn their keep and whose viewership would be above the league average. anyone else that you could potentially add is going to be on the low end of the media valuations.

Yes going west and bringing in best 4 from MWC

(09-04-2021 11:04 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 10:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just throwing out the question here: is there any scenario where expanding beyond 10 would make financial sense? My gut says no unless you’re going to land both of the other academies but part of the deal is also bringing in Rice to keep Navy playing games in the Houston market.

IMHO, the academies would be able to earn their keep and whose viewership would be above the league average. anyone else that you could potentially add is going to be on the low end of the media valuations.

Yes going west and bringing in best 4 from MWC

Provided ESPN plays ball, dollarwise, with such an addition. that would be a nice add.

(09-04-2021 11:08 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:04 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 10:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just throwing out the question here: is there any scenario where expanding beyond 10 would make financial sense? My gut says no unless you’re going to land both of the other academies but part of the deal is also bringing in Rice to keep Navy playing games in the Houston market.

IMHO, the academies would be able to earn their keep and whose viewership would be above the league average. anyone else that you could potentially add is going to be on the low end of the media valuations.

Yes going west and bringing in best 4 from MWC

Provided ESPN plays ball, dollarwise, with such an addition. that would be a nice add.

The only way it happens is with ESPN making it worthwhile

(09-04-2021 10:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just throwing out the question here: is there any scenario where expanding beyond 10 would make financial sense? My gut says no unless you’re going to land both of the other academies but part of the deal is also bringing in Rice to keep Navy playing games in the Houston market.

IMHO, the academies would be able to earn their keep and whose viewership would be above the league average. anyone else that you could potentially add is going to be on the low end of the media valuations.

Yes. Because I dont think its about money at this point. It should be about staying relevant.

No. Get back to 10 and stop

(09-04-2021 11:15 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  No. Get back to 10 and stop

What does that accomplish? Serious question.

(09-04-2021 11:19 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:15 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  No. Get back to 10 and stop

What does that accomplish? Serious question.

there is no benefit to 12 in the current system for a g5...
you actually hurt yur conference if you have 12 over 10

in 12 division leaders go the ccg, who might not be your best teams and could cost you a ny6/playoff... ant 10 your best 2 teams play

if you have 12 quality teams you go 12.. you dont go 12 because 12...and the fact we've stayed at 11 even after losing uconn is proof enough there arent 4 great options out there

Depends on what ESPN is willing to pay for. If they are willing to keep the AAC contract and pay to bring in, let's say, 4 western teams, then go ahead and go back to 12. I personally like 12 rather than 10.

(09-05-2021 12:01 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:35 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:19 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:15 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  No. Get back to 10 and stop

What does that accomplish? Serious question.

there is no benefit to 12 in the current system for a g5...
you actually hurt yur conference if you have 12 over 10

in 12 division leaders go the ccg, who might not be your best teams and could cost you a ny6/playoff... ant 10 your best 2 teams play

if you have 12 quality teams you go 12.. you dont go 12 because 12...and the fact we've stayed at 11 even after losing uconn is proof enough there arent 4 great options out there

There was also no real football loss to replace when UConn left. We got to drop our worst team---which basically lifted the average strength of the conference. Its like when you were in school and some teachers let you drop your lowest grade. Your average would then go up without you doing a thing. This is a different situation. Your losing some good football properties and some top basketball properties. The league needs to make a real attempt to replace as much of that lost athletic production as reasonably possible. If that takes going to 12--or even 14---so what? A million one way or another isnt going to make or break the average AAC budget. The whole point of the half continent conference is to field a strong conference that is relevant in the major revenue sports. Relevancy is the goal---not squeezing an extra 500K out of the deal by reducing teams (and inventory).

Relevancy means ratings. Ratings mean money. Relevancy is the path to the money.

I actually wouldn't mind taking 8. Take 4 from MWC and 4 from Sun Belt and CUSA.

If, and a big IF, ESPN is willing to pay for it.

(09-05-2021 12:01 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:35 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:19 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:15 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  No. Get back to 10 and stop

What does that accomplish? Serious question.

there is no benefit to 12 in the current system for a g5...
you actually hurt yur conference if you have 12 over 10

in 12 division leaders go the ccg, who might not be your best teams and could cost you a ny6/playoff... ant 10 your best 2 teams play

if you have 12 quality teams you go 12.. you dont go 12 because 12...and the fact we've stayed at 11 even after losing uconn is proof enough there arent 4 great options out there

There was also no real football loss to replace when UConn left. We got to drop our worst team---which basically lifted the average strength of the conference. Its like when you were in school and some teachers let you drop your lowest grade. Your average would then go up without you doing a thing. This is a different situation. Your losing some good football properties and some top basketball properties. The league needs to make a real attempt to replace as much of that lost athletic production as reasonably possible. If that takes going to 12--or even 14---so what? A million one way or another isnt going to make or break the average AAC budget. The whole point of the half continent conference is to field a strong conference that is relevant in the major revenue sports. Relevancy is the goal---not squeezing an extra 500K out of the deal by reducing teams (and inventory).

Relevancy means ratings. Ratings mean money. Relevancy is the path to the money.

theres no one relevant enough outside of the mwc... we are legtimate talking about uab as our "top option" theyve never been ranked in the ap poll at any time in history and 12 isnt going to make the aac more relevant, its just more ways to split the pie

and 10 is part of the relevancy plan, when i say 10.. i mean "10 for now."..add the best of the g3 as time goes on..instead of guessing who will rise...just wit for them to rise and take them then

Taking 4 from the MWC is not a realistic proposition. The MWC is in a much better position than the AAC is right now.

What’s the incentive to do so?

(09-05-2021 12:07 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(09-05-2021 12:01 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:35 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:19 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:15 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  No. Get back to 10 and stop

What does that accomplish? Serious question.

there is no benefit to 12 in the current system for a g5...
you actually hurt yur conference if you have 12 over 10

in 12 division leaders go the ccg, who might not be your best teams and could cost you a ny6/playoff... ant 10 your best 2 teams play

if you have 12 quality teams you go 12.. you dont go 12 because 12...and the fact we've stayed at 11 even after losing uconn is proof enough there arent 4 great options out there

There was also no real football loss to replace when UConn left. We got to drop our worst team---which basically lifted the average strength of the conference. Its like when you were in school and some teachers let you drop your lowest grade. Your average would then go up without you doing a thing. This is a different situation. Your losing some good football properties and some top basketball properties. The league needs to make a real attempt to replace as much of that lost athletic production as reasonably possible. If that takes going to 12--or even 14---so what? A million one way or another isnt going to make or break the average AAC budget. The whole point of the half continent conference is to field a strong conference that is relevant in the major revenue sports. Relevancy is the goal---not squeezing an extra 500K out of the deal by reducing teams (and inventory).

Relevancy means ratings. Ratings mean money. Relevancy is the path to the money.

I actually wouldn't mind taking 8. Take 4 from MWC and 4 from Sun Belt and CUSA.

If, and a big IF, ESPN is willing to pay for it.

if you can raid mwc.. you go ONLY mwc
lets assume sdsu, boise, colorado st, and air force are your top 4...

state flagship new mexico, fresno, and unlv and nevada are better adds than all available g3 talkng money wise, not who is currently winning wise

(09-05-2021 12:12 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Taking 4 from the MWC is not a realistic proposition. The MWC is in a much better position than the AAC is right now.

What’s the incentive to do so?

not true.... their deal only makes 4 mill..

if ESPN says, we'll let you keep your 7mil deal if you get the top of the mwc...we might be able to lure them. at the end of the day, money is money

(09-05-2021 12:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-05-2021 12:07 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(09-05-2021 12:01 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:35 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 11:19 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  What does that accomplish? Serious question.

there is no benefit to 12 in the current system for a g5...
you actually hurt yur conference if you have 12 over 10

in 12 division leaders go the ccg, who might not be your best teams and could cost you a ny6/playoff... ant 10 your best 2 teams play

if you have 12 quality teams you go 12.. you dont go 12 because 12...and the fact we've stayed at 11 even after losing uconn is proof enough there arent 4 great options out there

There was also no real football loss to replace when UConn left. We got to drop our worst team---which basically lifted the average strength of the conference. Its like when you were in school and some teachers let you drop your lowest grade. Your average would then go up without you doing a thing. This is a different situation. Your losing some good football properties and some top basketball properties. The league needs to make a real attempt to replace as much of that lost athletic production as reasonably possible. If that takes going to 12--or even 14---so what? A million one way or another isnt going to make or break the average AAC budget. The whole point of the half continent conference is to field a strong conference that is relevant in the major revenue sports. Relevancy is the goal---not squeezing an extra 500K out of the deal by reducing teams (and inventory).

Relevancy means ratings. Ratings mean money. Relevancy is the path to the money.

I actually wouldn't mind taking 8. Take 4 from MWC and 4 from Sun Belt and CUSA.

If, and a big IF, ESPN is willing to pay for it.

if you can raid mwc.. you go ONLY mwc
lets assume sdsu, boise, colorado st, and air force are your top 4...

state flagship new mexico, fresno, and unlv and nevada are better adds than all available g3 talkng money wise, not who is currently winning wise

Yes, I like those four from MWC, if ESPN can pay to entice them to come. But I also like taking some from CUSA and Sun Belt to take the top off of all 3 conferences.

Depends on who ESPN tells us to take to keep the TV dollars.

(09-05-2021 12:12 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Taking 4 from the MWC is not a realistic proposition. The MWC is in a much better position than the AAC is right now.

What’s the incentive to do so?

It's very realistic, if (and only if), ESPN pays for it and keeps the TV deal at 7M to entice them.

(09-05-2021 12:15 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-05-2021 12:12 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Taking 4 from the MWC is not a realistic proposition. The MWC is in a much better position than the AAC is right now.

What’s the incentive to do so?

not true.... their deal only makes 4 mill..

if ESPN says, we'll let you keep your 7mil deal if you get the top of the mwc...we might be able to lure them. at the end of the day, money is money

They make 4 mil? I thought they made about 2, but haven't been paying attention to their TV deals.

The AAC would need to expand or there will be other conferences trying to poach. Just like with the big 12 it was and still is just a Kansas to b1g away from being dead but with the insert of the 4 it shows the big 12 still has a pulse and can get good teams in.

If the AAC gets a few decent teams to leave other conferences to join due to the Americans better TV deal and money and product then the aac still has claim to P6 and the best g5

(09-05-2021 12:35 AM)vcoog Wrote:  The AAC would need to expand or there will be other conferences trying to poach. Just like with the big 12 it was and still is just a Kansas to b1g away from being dead but with the insert of the 4 it shows the big 12 still has a pulse and can get good teams in.

If the AAC gets a few decent teams to leave other conferences to join due to the Americans better TV deal and money and product then the aac still has claim to P6 and the best g5

Totally agree, that's why I think AAC needs to go to AT LEAST 12 and take the best programs available. There are good football programs out there.

Based on their performance over the past three seasons, the four strongest candidates may be Appalachian State (#1 football option), Buffalo (#1 BB/FB combination), #23 Louisiana (#15 final football AP, 2021), and UAB (.703 FB winning % since 2017).

AVERAGE WINS PER SEASON IN 2018-19, 2019-20, AND 2020-21:

………..FB..……BB
ASU..11.2….15.7 (App. St.)
ULL….9.9…..20.3 (Louisiana)
UB…..9.7…..23.9 (Buffalo)
UAB…9.6…..20.8 (Alabama-Birmingham)
MU…..8.7…..20.4 (Marshall)
LTU….8.2…..22.4 (Louisiana Tech)

…….....FB...BB MEAN RANK
UB…..#3….#1……….2.0 (#1)
ASU..#1….#6….……3.5 (#2; tie)
ULL….#2…#5………..3.5 (#2; tie)
UAB..#4….#3……….3.5 (#2; tie)
LTU…#6….#2……….4.0 (#5)
MU….#5….#4……….4.5 (#6)

BEST COMBINED W-L RECORDS BY RANK:

1. Buffalo (4 NCAA teams since 2015, #15 (AP final) in 2019); 9.7 FB wins/yr)

Buffalo went 6-1 in 2020 (.857), which, when extrapolated to a 13-game season came yielded an estimate of 11.14 wins. The Bulls won an average of 9.0 games in 2018 and 2019, and they won 2 of their 3 bowl games.

2. Appalachian St. (1.000 bowl record; nationally-ranked teams in 2018, '19, '20)

3. Louisiana-Lafayette (finished 2020 season ranked #15 in final AP poll)

4. U. Alabama-Birmingham (2018 and 2020 conference championship teams)

5. Louisiana Tech (nationally ranked in 2012; 6-1 in bowls since 2013)

6. Marshall (nationally ranked in 2014, 2020; 5-2 in bowls since 2013)

.

Buffalo, Louisiana, and UAB have good basketball programs and could join as full members. App. State could be invited to join as a football member.

The conference could be further strengthened by adding a quality basketball school, such as VCU, Dayton, or St. Louis. St. Louis's travel costs would be lower in the AAC than they are in the Atlantic 10.