I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

(07-27-2021 03:36 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

Probably makes sense for WVU making a push to gain ACC membership, maybe ISU trying for the B1G but doubt either will be successful. KU would also like the B1G but with FB as the driver, I doubt they have a chance either.

(07-27-2021 03:36 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

You are right to question. Bottom line, the ACC doesn't want to expand unless Notre Dame is on board. The B1G wants ACC teams and the PAC can't help themselves. The remaining 8 schools have their work cut out for them to prove they are worthy. When that all fails and it will.

The remaining 6-8 (There will be no less then 6 left unless Notre Dame joins the ACC) will regroup and invite a sufficient number of schools to reach 16 teams. That will be done simply to maximize revenue and media footprint.

I do love to through crap at the walls or fan but I hate it when the fan blows it back at me. So, I tend to stick with walls.

(07-27-2021 03:50 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 03:36 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

You are right to question. Bottom line, the ACC doesn't want to expand unless Notre Dame is on board. The B1G wants ACC teams and the PAC can't help themselves. The remaining 8 schools have their work cut out for them to prove they are worthy. When that all fails and it will.

The remaining 6-8 (There will be no less then 6 left unless Notre Dame joins the ACC) will regroup and invite a sufficient number of schools to reach 16 teams. That will be done simply to maximize revenue and media footprint.

I do love to through crap at the walls or fan but I hate it when the fan blows it back at me. So, I tend to stick with walls.

Seems logical except an additional 4 schools (beyond getting to 12) likely don't add enough incremental value to make it work. So the number is probably 12 for now.

(07-27-2021 03:42 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 03:36 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

Probably makes sense for WVU making a push to gain ACC membership, maybe ISU trying for the B1G but doubt either will be successful. KU would also like the B1G but with FB as the driver, I doubt they have a chance either.

WVU can push all they want. Do they have the $30 million in value it will take to not dilute income. Are academic elite schools like Notre Dame, UNC, Gtech, Virginia, Duke etc. be willing to add a school whos academically ranked #247? Every single ACC school is ranked in the top 90, other than Lville.... who they had to invite. Since then they locked down Notre Dame. Honestly, they dont need to expand.

WVU wants and needs the ACC. The ACC doesnt need WVU

and ISU has absolutely no chance of getting into the Big 10. Iowa already has the market and the way the B1G network works, adding an overlapping school would bring no additional income. I just dont see with an overlapping market how ISU brings the $60 million value it needs to not dilute their income.

(07-27-2021 04:19 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 03:42 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 03:36 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

Probably makes sense for WVU making a push to gain ACC membership, maybe ISU trying for the B1G but doubt either will be successful. KU would also like the B1G but with FB as the driver, I doubt they have a chance either.

WVU can push all they want. Do they have the $30 million in value it will take to not dilute income. Are academic elite schools like Notre Dame, UNC, Gtech, Virginia, Duke etc. be willing to add a school whos academically ranked #247? Every single ACC school is ranked in the top 90, other than Lville.... who they had to invite. Since then they locked down Notre Dame. Honestly, they dont need to expand.

WVU wants and needs the ACC. The ACC doesnt need WVU

and ISU has absolutely no chance of getting into the Big 10. Iowa already has the market and the way the B1G network works, adding an overlapping school would bring no additional income. I just dont see with an overlapping market how ISU brings the $60 million value it needs to not dilute their income.

Well said.

(07-27-2021 03:50 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 03:36 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

You are right to question. Bottom line, the ACC doesn't want to expand unless Notre Dame is on board. The B1G wants ACC teams and the PAC can't help themselves. The remaining 8 schools have their work cut out for them to prove they are worthy. When that all fails and it will.

The remaining 6-8 (There will be no less then 6 left unless Notre Dame joins the ACC) will regroup and invite a sufficient number of schools to reach 16 teams. That will be done simply to maximize revenue and media footprint.

I do love to through crap at the walls or fan but I hate it when the fan blows it back at me. So, I tend to stick with walls.

I agree with this assessment. It seems to reason that 6 would be the most likely bottom for the remaining Big 12 teams. If the Big 12 is smart about their expansion (they weren't smart in 2010 or even in 2016 when they decided not to), then they would focus on the best remaining schools/brands out there that maximize their reach as well as competitive standing which combined will maximize their potential TV deal. These would include the following IMO....

BYU
Houston
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF
USF

I think these 6 are the strongest, leave only BYU on an island (they are used to that anyway), but the largest brand and a must add. Houston helps keep a strong Texas presence (left SMU off as I feel they are redundant with TCU, if TCU leaves then maybe SMU for a #7). Cincinnati (obviously, plus WVU travel partner). Memphis bridges the gap of east to west and brings basketball (which may be needed if Kansas departure). Then UCF & USF to put a strong foothold in the middle or Florida plus the War on I4 rivalry.

A potential 12 team Big 12 could look like this:

West:
BYU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma St
Baylor
TCU
Houston

East:
Kansas St
Memphis
Cincinnati
West Virginia
UCF
USF

This scenario is contingent on Kansas and Iowa State leaving but could even go to 14 with the same 6 plus KU and ISU.

It’s impossible to do in realignment discussions but try to forget football for a second...that is easily the 2nd best BB conference in the country.

(07-27-2021 04:40 PM)WhalerFan Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 04:19 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 03:42 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 03:36 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

Probably makes sense for WVU making a push to gain ACC membership, maybe ISU trying for the B1G but doubt either will be successful. KU would also like the B1G but with FB as the driver, I doubt they have a chance either.

WVU can push all they want. Do they have the $30 million in value it will take to not dilute income. Are academic elite schools like Notre Dame, UNC, Gtech, Virginia, Duke etc. be willing to add a school whos academically ranked #247? Every single ACC school is ranked in the top 90, other than Lville.... who they had to invite. Since then they locked down Notre Dame. Honestly, they dont need to expand.

WVU wants and needs the ACC. The ACC doesnt need WVU

and ISU has absolutely no chance of getting into the Big 10. Iowa already has the market and the way the B1G network works, adding an overlapping school would bring no additional income. I just dont see with an overlapping market how ISU brings the $60 million value it needs to not dilute their income.

Well said.

Without saying all of that, with which I agree, I did say it was doubtful.

(07-27-2021 04:57 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  It’s impossible to do in realignment discussions but try to forget football for a second...that is easily the 2nd best BB conference in the country.

And sadly basketball means nothing. Otherwise Baylor and Kansas would had been snatched by now.

(07-27-2021 03:36 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

It's not that simple. Was TCU worth 1 million in the MWC and then suddenly worth 30 million in the Big 12. People can move up even if they are worth "less". And if TCU really was worth 30 million in Big 12, how did they only make 1 million in MWC. Same with West Virginia, were they only worth 8 or 9 million in Big East (or whatever BE was making back then). Or was their real worth 30 million.

It's not an even dollar for dollar match.

(07-27-2021 05:43 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 03:36 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  I hear so many arguments and they dont make sense.

On one side we have the crowd who keeps posting national correspondents saying that the Leftover 8 are looking at a future TV deal worth as low as $9 million and some say at the very highest $20 million. Most agree the range will be closer to $10-15 million.

If we accept that as the range and we agree that these numbers make sense then....

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD ANY P4 CONFERENCE BE INTERESTED IN THEM?

Each and every "Power" conference left pays there members more than that. Every single one. So all this debate about 4 schools going to the PAC or 2-4 Teams going to the BIg 10... WHAT?

The Big 10 gets a new contract soon and all estimates are that there will be payouts between $60-70 million a year.
The SEC is going to be very similar.

The ACC is already paying out over $30 million with the PAC slightly behind that.

Am I just missing something. All these theory's where everyone is going and yet all of those theories completely ignore the estimated value of the B12 teams and the current payout.
If its not the SEC or Big 10 taking them, then there's also significant travel for the ACC and PAC. This simply doesn't make sense.

Honestly, I am asking. What am I missing that would change this argument?

It's not that simple. Was TCU worth 1 million in the MWC and then suddenly worth 30 million in the Big 12. People can move up even if they are worth "less". And if TCU really was worth 30 million in Big 12, how did they only make 1 million in MWC. Same with West Virginia, were they only worth 8 or 9 million in Big East (or whatever BE was making back then). Or was their real worth 30 million.

It's not an even dollar for dollar match.

True, but in that case ESPN was trying to hold a conference together along with FOX. No TCU or WVU and No conference.

Thats not the case here. There was a third actor within that last series that benefitted by overpaying. Not this time. In fact, ESPN and Fox get to keep that inventory (the leftover big 8) at a discount. Even if they add 8 AAC teams and pay us more, the overall net amount will go down.
Its a net savings for them because they were already going to have to spend huge to keep the SEC in the future tv deal. Now they can save money by paying the leftover 8 less.