(06-30-2021 07:58 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 11:11 AM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 08:24 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The AAC would certainly have to strongly consider adding Baylor and TCU if those two are left stranded in a massively depleted Big 12.

Considering the name Big 12 is of higher value than American Athletic Conference or Mountain West Conference, if any schools are left what stops the remaining B12 schools from just adding the best of to the conference? If you don't have to take an East Carolina, Tulane, Wyoming or San Jose State, why associate with them?

IMHO the only way to kill the Big 12 (or any power conference) is to give a power conference landing spot to all of the members. With the Big 12 having the fewest members, that makes them an easy target for conference expansion theorists to speculate on.

(seeing that last sentence makes me feel like I'm watching Ancient Aliens with the way they double-speak)

In a general sense, you are correct. But if only two Big 12 programs are left standing after the league is, hypothetically, eviscerated, those two program would offer modest clout as "Big 12 survivors." Now if four, for example, Big 12 programs are left standing after a raid, those four (as you note) invite (likely) eight programs from the MWC and AAC.

It's the "two left standing" scenario that makes me take pause — and feel the AAC might be able to add that pair.

Perhaps you should consider the reverse of the tail-wags-dog scenario you envision. If four programs are left after a B12 evisceration, an intact eleven-member AAC might consider asking some of them to join. Whether four or even six, the leftover and stranded little sisters of a severely wounded B12 would have little to no appeal or clout, and even fewer options.

(07-04-2021 06:52 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 07:58 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 11:11 AM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 08:24 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The AAC would certainly have to strongly consider adding Baylor and TCU if those two are left stranded in a massively depleted Big 12.

Considering the name Big 12 is of higher value than American Athletic Conference or Mountain West Conference, if any schools are left what stops the remaining B12 schools from just adding the best of to the conference? If you don't have to take an East Carolina, Tulane, Wyoming or San Jose State, why associate with them?

IMHO the only way to kill the Big 12 (or any power conference) is to give a power conference landing spot to all of the members. With the Big 12 having the fewest members, that makes them an easy target for conference expansion theorists to speculate on.

(seeing that last sentence makes me feel like I'm watching Ancient Aliens with the way they double-speak)

In a general sense, you are correct. But if only two Big 12 programs are left standing after the league is, hypothetically, eviscerated, those two program would offer modest clout as "Big 12 survivors." Now if four, for example, Big 12 programs are left standing after a raid, those four (as you note) invite (likely) eight programs from the MWC and AAC.

It's the "two left standing" scenario that makes me take pause — and feel the AAC might be able to add that pair.

Perhaps you should consider the reverse of the tail-wags-dog scenario you envision. If four programs are left after a B12 evisceration, an intact eleven-member AAC might consider asking some of them to join. Whether four or even six, the leftover and stranded little sisters of a severely wounded B12 would have little to no appeal or clout, and even fewer options.

If Navy/UCF/USF/UC/Memphis/Tulane/SMU/UH are left choosing between:
A) Temple/ECU/Tulsa + ISU/KSU/OSU/BU
B) ISU/KSU/OSU/BU

They’re choosing Option B.

If ISU/KSU/OSU/BU are left choosing between:
A) Join AAC
B) Invite select AAC/MWC schools

They’re choosing Option B.


Everything rolls downhill in realignment. The leftover XII schools hold the cards and can pick and choose which G5 schools they want to join them.

(07-04-2021 07:04 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-04-2021 06:52 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 07:58 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 11:11 AM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 08:24 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The AAC would certainly have to strongly consider adding Baylor and TCU if those two are left stranded in a massively depleted Big 12.

Considering the name Big 12 is of higher value than American Athletic Conference or Mountain West Conference, if any schools are left what stops the remaining B12 schools from just adding the best of to the conference? If you don't have to take an East Carolina, Tulane, Wyoming or San Jose State, why associate with them?

IMHO the only way to kill the Big 12 (or any power conference) is to give a power conference landing spot to all of the members. With the Big 12 having the fewest members, that makes them an easy target for conference expansion theorists to speculate on.

(seeing that last sentence makes me feel like I'm watching Ancient Aliens with the way they double-speak)

In a general sense, you are correct. But if only two Big 12 programs are left standing after the league is, hypothetically, eviscerated, those two program would offer modest clout as "Big 12 survivors." Now if four, for example, Big 12 programs are left standing after a raid, those four (as you note) invite (likely) eight programs from the MWC and AAC.

It's the "two left standing" scenario that makes me take pause — and feel the AAC might be able to add that pair.

Perhaps you should consider the reverse of the tail-wags-dog scenario you envision. If four programs are left after a B12 evisceration, an intact eleven-member AAC might consider asking some of them to join. Whether four or even six, the leftover and stranded little sisters of a severely wounded B12 would have little to no appeal or clout, and even fewer options.

If Navy/UCF/USF/UC/Memphis/Tulane/SMU/UH are left choosing between:
A) Temple/ECU/Tulsa + ISU/KSU/OSU/BU
B) ISU/KSU/OSU/BU

They’re choosing Option B.

If ISU/KSU/OSU/BU are left choosing between:
A) Join AAC
B) Invite select AAC/MWC schools

They’re choosing Option B.


Everything rolls downhill in realignment. The leftover XII schools hold the cards and can pick and choose which G5 schools they want to join them.

Yep, they can pick and choose, and their invitations can be refused. If UT and OU bolt, what's left of the B12 is just another G5.

(07-04-2021 07:42 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(07-04-2021 07:04 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-04-2021 06:52 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 07:58 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 11:11 AM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  Considering the name Big 12 is of higher value than American Athletic Conference or Mountain West Conference, if any schools are left what stops the remaining B12 schools from just adding the best of to the conference? If you don't have to take an East Carolina, Tulane, Wyoming or San Jose State, why associate with them?

IMHO the only way to kill the Big 12 (or any power conference) is to give a power conference landing spot to all of the members. With the Big 12 having the fewest members, that makes them an easy target for conference expansion theorists to speculate on.

(seeing that last sentence makes me feel like I'm watching Ancient Aliens with the way they double-speak)

In a general sense, you are correct. But if only two Big 12 programs are left standing after the league is, hypothetically, eviscerated, those two program would offer modest clout as "Big 12 survivors." Now if four, for example, Big 12 programs are left standing after a raid, those four (as you note) invite (likely) eight programs from the MWC and AAC.

It's the "two left standing" scenario that makes me take pause — and feel the AAC might be able to add that pair.

Perhaps you should consider the reverse of the tail-wags-dog scenario you envision. If four programs are left after a B12 evisceration, an intact eleven-member AAC might consider asking some of them to join. Whether four or even six, the leftover and stranded little sisters of a severely wounded B12 would have little to no appeal or clout, and even fewer options.

If Navy/UCF/USF/UC/Memphis/Tulane/SMU/UH are left choosing between:
A) Temple/ECU/Tulsa + ISU/KSU/OSU/BU
B) ISU/KSU/OSU/BU

They’re choosing Option B.

If ISU/KSU/OSU/BU are left choosing between:
A) Join AAC
B) Invite select AAC/MWC schools

They’re choosing Option B.


Everything rolls downhill in realignment. The leftover XII schools hold the cards and can pick and choose which G5 schools they want to join them.

Yep, they can pick and choose, and their invitations can be refused. If UT and OU bolt, what's left of the B12 is just another G5.

They can be refused, yes, but what’s in it for Cincy/Houston/UCF/etc? They can swap out the bottom AAC schools for ISU/KSU/OSU/BU by taking the invitation.

(07-04-2021 06:52 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 07:58 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 11:11 AM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  

(06-30-2021 08:24 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The AAC would certainly have to strongly consider adding Baylor and TCU if those two are left stranded in a massively depleted Big 12.

Considering the name Big 12 is of higher value than American Athletic Conference or Mountain West Conference, if any schools are left what stops the remaining B12 schools from just adding the best of to the conference? If you don't have to take an East Carolina, Tulane, Wyoming or San Jose State, why associate with them?

IMHO the only way to kill the Big 12 (or any power conference) is to give a power conference landing spot to all of the members. With the Big 12 having the fewest members, that makes them an easy target for conference expansion theorists to speculate on.

(seeing that last sentence makes me feel like I'm watching Ancient Aliens with the way they double-speak)

In a general sense, you are correct. But if only two Big 12 programs are left standing after the league is, hypothetically, eviscerated, those two program would offer modest clout as "Big 12 survivors." Now if four, for example, Big 12 programs are left standing after a raid, those four (as you note) invite (likely) eight programs from the MWC and AAC.

It's the "two left standing" scenario that makes me take pause — and feel the AAC might be able to add that pair.

Perhaps you should consider the reverse of the tail-wags-dog scenario you envision. If four programs are left after a B12 evisceration, an intact eleven-member AAC might consider asking some of them to join. Whether four or even six, the leftover and stranded little sisters of a severely wounded B12 would have little to no appeal or clout, and even fewer options.

If six Big 12 schools are left standing after conference realignment ... I am 99.999999 percent sure those six, collectively, will invite programs from the AAC and MWC to restock — and the invited will jump immediately.

If only four Big 12 schools are left standing after conference realignment ... I am about 80 percent sure those four, collectively, will be successful with their inviting of programs from the AAC and MWC to restock.

However, if only two Big 12 schools are left standing after a hypothetical conference realignment, those two would offer minimal (if any) clout or appeal (other than, in a very general sense, the Big 12 name) in their effort to lure AAC and MWC programs to join them.

It basically comes down to the numbers (or lack of numbers).

I don't anticipate any major realignment any time soon. But if there is, I sure hope Memphis and Cincinnati remain in the same league.