(06-26-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think a lot will depend on whether the 12 team CFP actually gets adopted. Though this goes against the grain, I actually think it reduces the chances for a team not already near the top of the heap will win a NC. Especially if they don't start out with a bye, four games in a row against the best in the country is a tall order, and the best players are increasingly going to choose to go the top teams.

So IMO the list is going to be very short - like maybe Texas and Florida short.

Lessee ... winning the conference is definitely a big step up in the odds of winning through.

I go back to Captain Bearcat's list ... 13 out of 15 top 5 ranked recruiting classes (247) in 2019-2021 going to the schools that have already won, 9 out of 15 "next 5" ranked recruiting classes going to schools that have not. For those, it may give more depth to include top 25 ranks in the three years:

Texas A&M: 4,6,8
Texas: 3,8,15
Florida: 9,9,12
USC: 20,x,7
Auburn: 11,7,19
Tennessee: 13,10,22
Michigan: 8,14,13

Then there is the aspect which is not measurable by recruiting class rankings, which is player development and game day coaching, with player development including both luck and coaching.

From that, it does indeed look like Texas and Florida are the best bets if it happens in the near term future. Further into the future, if USC's recruiting holds up, and if the 12 team CFP is put into place, it's odds will start to rise due to the easier path to the quarterfinal.

(06-26-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  Especially if they don't start out with a bye, four games in a row against the best in the country is a tall order

Several teams have won the Super Bowl without getting a first round bye in the NFL playoffs, meaning they had to play 4 playoff games instead of 3. No reason to think it would be more difficult to do that in college than in the NFL.

(06-26-2021 07:05 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 12:54 AM)Alanda Wrote:  EDIT: Nice misread on my part.

I'm going to go with Wisconsin. May not happen till the expansion, but I can see them having a run like 2017 and taking the NC.

IMO, Wisconsin is like Virginia Tech: both teams will eventually get into the playoffs, but I'm not sure either will win it any time soon (though the Badgers are closer than the Hokies right now, for sure).

How are fans viewing Justin Fuente? Is his seat pretty warm right now?

(06-25-2021 09:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I figured I’d leave this open ended rather than make it a poll. So outside of:

Alabama
Clemson
Ohio St
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Georgia
LSU
Michigan St
Florida St
Washington
Oregon

…who’s the next to hoist the title trophy?

Removing the above teams, there are a handful of coaches I think are either capable, have done it before, or have come close:
- Mack Brown (UNC)
- James Franklin (PSU)
- Matt Campbell (ISU)
- Mike Gundy (OSU)
- Gary Patterson (TCU)
- Chip Kelly (UCLA)
- Dan Mullen (Florida)
- Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)

UCLA is far removed and doesn’t appear to be getting Chip Kelly Oregon, and OSU/TCU have slipped from 2011/2014.

Dan Mullen/Florida is most likely.

(06-26-2021 07:23 AM)goofus Wrote:  History suggests it will be someone from the SEC. Kind of like LSU seemed to come out of nowhere in 2019.

So I am going with Florida

THIS^

(06-26-2021 10:30 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(06-25-2021 09:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I figured I’d leave this open ended rather than make it a poll. So outside of:

Alabama
Clemson
Ohio St
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Georgia
LSU
Michigan St
Florida St
Washington
Oregon

…who’s the next to hoist the title trophy?

Removing the above teams, there are a handful of coaches I think are either capable, have done it before, or have come close:
- Mack Brown (UNC)
- James Franklin (PSU)
- Matt Campbell (ISU)
- Mike Gundy (OSU)
- Gary Patterson (TCU)
- Chip Kelly (UCLA)
- Dan Mullen (Florida)
- Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)

UCLA is far removed and doesn’t appear to be getting Chip Kelly Oregon, and OSU/TCU have slipped from 2011/2014.

Dan Mullen/Florida is most likely.

(06-25-2021 09:32 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Houston Cougars...

(06-25-2021 10:16 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-25-2021 10:11 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Not that I’m a fan, but the USC Trojans will eventually be back. The Hollywood lure is completely unique in college sports.

That's the right idea. College football being what it is and always has been, the answer is almost certainly a big name program that hasn't yet been in the CFP. USC or Texas. Maybe Florida. Maybe Michigan after Harbaugh leaves.

(06-26-2021 06:52 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  I'd go with Texas. They wouldn't be left out of any 4-team CFP if they arguably had a shot, and they'll eventually be back to nationally competitive teams, maybe sooner than we expect.

(06-26-2021 12:01 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  It’s hard to imagine USC, Texas and Florida not being part of the CFP.

(06-26-2021 12:25 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  The list includes Florida, Miami, Michigan, Penn St, Texas, Texas A&M, and USC. EDIT: Add Auburn.

A couple of those are big stretches but those 8 are my guesses with my money being on Texas A&M.

Another question is outside of Alabama, Clemson, LSU, and Ohio St - who wins a title next?

My bet would be Georgia.

(06-26-2021 07:26 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m inclined to think it will Texas or Florida. Eventually one of those two will be able to take all their blue chip recruits and turn them into a championship caliber team.

(06-26-2021 06:29 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Other than teams on that list, who has the best coach?

I think the best coaches not on that list are Jimbo Fisher and Luke Fickell. Jimbo's at a much bigger program, so my money is on him. Texas A&M.

(06-26-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think a lot will depend on whether the 12 team CFP actually gets adopted. Though this goes against the grain, I actually think it reduces the chances for a team not already near the top of the heap will win a NC. Especially if they don't start out with a bye, four games in a row against the best in the country is a tall order, and the best players are increasingly going to choose to go the top teams.

So IMO the list is going to be very short - like maybe Texas and Florida short.

(06-26-2021 06:01 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(06-25-2021 09:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I figured I’d leave this open ended rather than make it a poll. So outside of:

Alabama
Clemson
Ohio St
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Georgia
LSU
Michigan St
Florida St
Washington
Oregon

…who’s the next to hoist the title trophy?

Just want to say, when they teach a class on offseason thread creation, this should be in the textbook. Top notch.

My pick is Texas. Sarkisian should be in year 3, and the lead up with 12 teams on the horizon should help their already strong recruiting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

(06-26-2021 11:23 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Top-10 ranked recruiting classes of teams not on the OP's list (from 247):

2021: USC #7
2021: Texas A&M #8
2020: Texas A&M #6
2020: Auburn #7
2020: Texas #8
2020: Florida #9
2020: Tennessee #10
2019: Texas #3
2019: Texas A&M #4
2019: Michigan #8
2019: Florida #9

(06-26-2021 08:32 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think a lot will depend on whether the 12 team CFP actually gets adopted. Though this goes against the grain, I actually think it reduces the chances for a team not already near the top of the heap will win a NC. Especially if they don't start out with a bye, four games in a row against the best in the country is a tall order, and the best players are increasingly going to choose to go the top teams.

So IMO the list is going to be very short - like maybe Texas and Florida short.

Lessee ... winning the conference is definitely a big step up in the odds of winning through.

I go back to Captain Bearcat's list ... 13 out of 15 top 5 ranked recruiting classes (247) in 2019-2021 going to the schools that have already won, 9 out of 15 "next 5" ranked recruiting classes going to schools that have not. For those, it may give more depth to include top 25 ranks in the three years:

Texas A&M: 4,6,8
Texas: 3,8,15
Florida: 9,9,12
USC: 20,x,7
Auburn: 11,7,19
Tennessee: 13,10,22
Michigan: 8,14,13

Then there is the aspect which is not measurable by recruiting class rankings, which is player development and game day coaching, with player development including both luck and coaching.

From that, it does indeed look like Texas and Florida are the best bets if it happens in the near term future. Further into the future, if USC's recruiting holds up, and if the 12 team CFP is put into place, it's odds will start to rise due to the easier path to the quarterfinal.

Impressive, 12 posters mention teams from the great state of Texas (possibly) being next up.
-Texas
-Texas A&M
-TCU
-Houston

I agree with the geographical premise, but also, do not underestimate the feisty night birds of:
-Rice University

(06-25-2021 09:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I figured I’d leave this open ended rather than make it a poll. So outside of:

Alabama
Clemson
Ohio St
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Georgia
LSU
Michigan St
Florida St
Washington
Oregon

…who’s the next to hoist the title trophy?

Interestingly, one of those schools has never won a national championship in football. Another question is - will Oregon win their first before any school not on that list wins one?

USFFan

Florida or Auburn

(06-26-2021 08:46 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  Especially if they don't start out with a bye, four games in a row against the best in the country is a tall order

Several teams have won the Super Bowl without getting a first round bye in the NFL playoffs, meaning they had to play 4 playoff games instead of 3. No reason to think it would be more difficult to do that in college than in the NFL.

The NFL draft and free agency are two reasons I can think of.

Auburn, TAMU, or Miami

(06-29-2021 09:44 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 08:46 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  Especially if they don't start out with a bye, four games in a row against the best in the country is a tall order

Several teams have won the Super Bowl without getting a first round bye in the NFL playoffs, meaning they had to play 4 playoff games instead of 3. No reason to think it would be more difficult to do that in college than in the NFL.

The NFL draft and free agency are two reasons I can think of.

The answer is USC, with Texas a close second. It would be easy to see a school like Alabama fail to win the conference championship, get an at-large berth and win four playoff games in a row. A good team could stumble a few times early in the season and catch fire late in the season and be the one team that no one wants to play in the playoffs. With an expanded playoff in college football, it will be possible for that hot team to win four games, just like it happens in the NFL.

(06-29-2021 09:32 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Florida or Auburn

yep

(06-29-2021 09:44 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 08:46 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  Especially if they don't start out with a bye, four games in a row against the best in the country is a tall order

Several teams have won the Super Bowl without getting a first round bye in the NFL playoffs, meaning they had to play 4 playoff games instead of 3. No reason to think it would be more difficult to do that in college than in the NFL.

The NFL draft and free agency are two reasons I can think of.

Add salary cap to that.

(06-26-2021 10:17 PM)Alanda Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 07:05 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 12:54 AM)Alanda Wrote:  EDIT: Nice misread on my part.

I'm going to go with Wisconsin. May not happen till the expansion, but I can see them having a run like 2017 and taking the NC.

IMO, Wisconsin is like Virginia Tech: both teams will eventually get into the playoffs, but I'm not sure either will win it any time soon (though the Badgers are closer than the Hokies right now, for sure).

How are fans viewing Justin Fuente? Is his seat pretty warm right now?

Yes. He would need to beat WVU and win the ACC Coastal to quench the fire, IMO. That said, 8 wins probably buys him another year - unless a coach falls into their laps who is clearly superior, of course.