(03-14-2021 09:59 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-14-2021 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-14-2021 09:39 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Ugly Saturday for the bubble teams with both Georgetown and Oregon State winning. Cincinnati could take another bid away, too.

Yes, the day actually was good for bubble teams, until the evening. The Georgetown win hurts the most because some brackets had Oregon State getting in before they won. They were arguably a bubble team going in to the PAC title game. But Georgetown came out of nowhere.

It also hurts that Duke announced they are receptive to playing if chosen. Never underestimate the appeal of Duke to the committee, regardless of what the Matrices say.

Georgetown's NET is #64. Oregon State's is #91. I don't know what they were yesterday but you'd have to figure both teams were lower than they are today after winning. Anyone who thought Oregon State had any chance of getting in as an at large and Georgetown didn't has either never seen the NET rankings or doesn't give a crap about them.

FWIW, I do not give a crap about NET rankings.

My gut - which has been wrong more times than I can count - tells me that had the PAC 12 title game been canceled yesterday on account of virus with Colorado, Oregon State would today have a shot at getting in as an at-large. But if the Big East title game had been canceled yesterday on account of virus with Creighton, Georgetown would have had no chance at all to get in as an at-large.

(03-14-2021 01:24 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-14-2021 09:59 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-14-2021 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-14-2021 09:39 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Ugly Saturday for the bubble teams with both Georgetown and Oregon State winning. Cincinnati could take another bid away, too.

Yes, the day actually was good for bubble teams, until the evening. The Georgetown win hurts the most because some brackets had Oregon State getting in before they won. They were arguably a bubble team going in to the PAC title game. But Georgetown came out of nowhere.

It also hurts that Duke announced they are receptive to playing if chosen. Never underestimate the appeal of Duke to the committee, regardless of what the Matrices say.

Georgetown's NET is #64. Oregon State's is #91. I don't know what they were yesterday but you'd have to figure both teams were lower than they are today after winning. Anyone who thought Oregon State had any chance of getting in as an at large and Georgetown didn't has either never seen the NET rankings or doesn't give a crap about them.

FWIW, I do not give a crap about NET rankings.

My gut - which has been wrong more times than I can count - tells me that had the PAC 12 title game been canceled yesterday on account of virus with Colorado, Oregon State would today have a shot at getting in as an at-large. But if the Big East title game had been canceled yesterday on account of virus with Creighton, Georgetown would have had no chance at all to get in as an at-large.

Oregon St was - no hyperbole - almost 50 spots off the bubble. Their NET was 99 entering the game. The PAC PBP guy stated Bill Walton was the only person in the world with Oregon St on the bubble.

(03-14-2021 12:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  this is an interesting point-

Lunardi commented that Colgate's NET is a complete outlier and should have no impact.

Lunardi also has an alternate title now for "First Four Out": "COVID replacements".

I guess the only remaining questions are whether Cincinnati wins and knocks another team out, and whether VCU needs to win to stay in the main field and out of the First Four.

Although I don’t believe that Duke will make the field of 68, somehow the committee will mention Duke as a team that could be called-upon if COVID causes team cancellations.

I think there is some politics in selection. Oregon State likely bumps UCLA, Georgetown bumps Xavier, and if Cincinnati wins they will bump Wichita State.

There is a danger the committee drops 2nd bids from the MVC, MWC and A10 to make room for more from the 6 majors. If the majors get 32 or 33 of the at large as a result, a bunch of 15-12 teams over 19 and 20 game upper mid-majors, that wont go down well.

Early Bracket Matrix results: Out of 100 brackets: Mississippi is on 10 of them. I'm going to look really stupid unless Cincinnati wins the AAC. Of course if Cincinnati wins the AAC, who knows who most of the brackets will remove. Louisville is on 89 brackets. Utah State is on 72. All of these brackets aren't "correct" because 15 of them are missing Georgetown and Oregon State since they are from yesterday. They have to remove at least two teams and that's assuming Houston wins (not that that's not a good assumption).

Houston relaxing a lot of bubble teams right now.

Houston ...... 50

Cincy ............ 29

2H

(03-14-2021 09:31 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Auto
1 Gonzaga
5 Alabama
8 Houston
9 Texas
31 San Diego St
33 Georgia Tech
37 St Bonaventure
41 Loyola-Chi
47 Georgetown
48 Oregon St
49 Winthrop
50 UCSB
51 Liberty
52 Ohio
53 UNCG
54 North Texas
55 Abilene Christian
56 Morehead St
57 Colgate
58 E Washington
59 Grand Canyon
60 Drexel
61 Oral Roberts
62 Cleveland St
63 Iona
64 Hartford
---------------------
65 Mt St Mary's
66 Norfolk St
67 App St
68 Texas Southern

Bubble:
38 VCU
39 Maryland
40 Michigan St
42 Louisville
----------------------
43 UCLA
44 Syracuse
45 Drake
46 Utah St
----------------------
69 Wichita St
70 Ole Miss
71 Saint Louis
72 Colorado St
73 Boise St
74 Memphis
75 Xavier
76 Duke

So... In conclusion Louisville got screwed. Although if even 1 team from a multi-bid league has to cancel before Tuesday, they could end up with a better seed than they would have gotten if they had made the field.

so they posted the final bracket project with all 203 bracketologies...

the matrix scored 366 this year, up 5 from 2019.

Pretty dang good with how many unknowns there were with COVID this year.

(03-15-2021 03:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so they posted the final bracket project with all 203 bracketologies...

the matrix scored 366 this year, up 5 from 2019.

Pretty dang good with how many unknowns there were with COVID this year.

BracketMatrix was near on the money again.

here are their scores the last 6 times:
15 338
16 329
17 341
18 347
19 361
21 366

(03-15-2021 02:07 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  So... In conclusion Louisville got screwed.

No, they didn't. The last several at-large candidates, maybe as many as 10 teams including the last ones in and the first ones out, are close enough that whatever order they were ranked in is not outrageous.

Lots of room for legitimately disagreeing about how to rank those teams. KenPom, for example, has Louisville ranked behind every at-large team selected for the tournament except Michigan State and Wichita State, even behind some other teams that were left out. https://kenpom.com/

(03-15-2021 03:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so they posted the final bracket project with all 203 bracketologies...

the matrix scored 366 this year, up 5 from 2019.

Pretty dang good with how many unknowns there were with COVID this year.

Haven’t looked at BracketMatrix’s numbers yet but here were Lunardi/Palm’s:

Lunardi
67/68 field
63/68 within 1 seed
45/68 seeds

Palm
66/68 field
59/68 within 1 seed
43/68 seeds


How the uncharismatic and often-wrong Palm keeps so much prominence every year, I’ll never know.

looks like Palm was tied for 146th. Lunardi was tied for 82nd. By points- Lunardi had 354 Palm had 343.

The guy who I was tracking who was #1 the last 5 years was tied for 57th. Had 356 points. 67/60/48

this just speaks to how much more predictable the committee has gotten- which is a good thing IMO-

(03-16-2021 10:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  this just speaks to how much more predictable the committee has gotten- which is a good thing IMO-

BracketMatrix has gotten very good. The committee knew they needed a curveball to throw them off and Louisville was the unlucky chosen one.

(03-16-2021 10:47 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(03-16-2021 10:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  this just speaks to how much more predictable the committee has gotten- which is a good thing IMO-

BracketMatrix has gotten very good. The committee knew they needed a curveball to throw them off and Louisville was the unlucky chosen one.

They're even saying the individual folks. #1 in 2011 would be #174 now.

(03-16-2021 10:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-16-2021 10:47 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(03-16-2021 10:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  this just speaks to how much more predictable the committee has gotten- which is a good thing IMO-

BracketMatrix has gotten very good. The committee knew they needed a curveball to throw them off and Louisville was the unlucky chosen one.

They're even saying the individual folks. #1 in 2011 would be #174 now.

Selection Committee's vary. There are Selection Committees that tend to agree for the most part with the bracketologists (and vice versa) and others who don't. I tend to trust the opinion of 200+ bracketologists more than 10 committee members whose schools and conferences get paid if they make the NCAA Tournament. In 2016, ONE bracket out of 144 thought Tulsa was an NCAA Tournament quality team but the NCAA did? The Selection Committee was stupid for that one.

https://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2021/...-2006-2019