(06-29-2020 02:23 PM)johnintx Wrote: (06-29-2020 08:47 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: I think that OU will be in-play.
The BIG will make overtures. A solid Midwestern division would be anchored by OU. Some nostalgia by rekindling the UNL rivalry. KU would be used as a bridge...geographically, academically and culturally. At the end the day, the BIG will be very attractive: reliable money, an attractive path to football exposure and championships, and the academics feel like their athletics are aligned with academia.
I don't know if the B1G will sacrifice its academic standards for OU. OU is not a peer to the large state flagships of the Midwest. But, money talks, and if Fox and ESPN make the right whispers in their ears, the B1G could move in that direction.
OU's administrators and some of its donors would crawl on their hands and knees to the B1G. Fans? Not so much.
(06-29-2020 08:47 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: UT-Austin will desperately work to keep OU close. Either trying to save the B12 or working with other power conferences. ESPN will also partner with UT-Austin by offering financial and exposure sweeteners.
The preferred move at OU is most likely the path of least resistance: no move at all. OU is comfortable in a conference with regional rivals, especially one that it helped form. OU has a reasonable path to the CFP from the B12 (being successful in the CFP is an entirely different story). But, if there is a $20M per year difference between payments in the B1G/SEC and the B12, OU has to pursue other options. A network can overpay for OU's Tier 3 rights (just as UT is overpaid) to keep OU in the B12 and to keep the conference together. The downside of that is that it increases the difference in revenue between UT, OU and the other 8 teams. But, that could be the price to keep the other 8 in a P5 conference. Also, a lot of fans and season ticket holders are unhappy with B12 home schedules. Which leads us to...
(06-29-2020 08:47 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: The SEC will be a backup option in case state politics becomes an issue.
The SEC is the people's choice. Sure, it's a tougher conference which would result in an average of one more loss per year. But, the buzz around home games with SEC opponents would increase donations and excitement among the fan base. Plus, with the right deal, the SEC can invite OSU to come along. The inclusion of OSU is not a deal-breaker, but it helps. It is also something the B1G is not willing to do.
(06-29-2020 08:47 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: After the frustrations from the last round of realignment, OU has nicely positioned itself to be at the center of all discussions.
Yes, OU is the key to any future realignment in the P5. After the departure of the previous president/senator/governor, any change in leadership is an improvement.
It's no secret that I haven't been a fan of large conferences or an expanded playoff. That being said, I'm guessing I'm in the minority on both issues. So here's an option that accepts both of those things and also addresses G5 wishes to have better access to the CFP.
As both the Big XII media deal and the original CFP contract expire in a few years, I could see the SEC adding Texas and Oklahoma, and then doing the unthinkable - sort of.
What if, after going to 16 members, the SEC West schools form a new 8 member "conference" with the blessing of the SEC East schools? They could adopt as their new name the
SEC
West
Conference, or
SWC for short, while the remaining 8 schools that now include Alabama and Auburn (Vandy goes to the SWC) take the name
SEC
East
Conference, or
SEC.
These two "conferences" then form an alliance in which they share a single Commissioner and staff, which is responsible for recruiting, training, scheduling and supervising officials for all sports. This staff also negotiates media contracts for both conferences, and oversees scheduling for both to optimize value for potential media partners.
Together, they promote a new CFP deal in which there are now 6 AQ conferences which have a guaranteed spot for their champion in an 8 team playoff. The other two spots are filled by the highest ranked non-AQ conference champions
or independents. In that model, both the AAC champion and the MWC champion could qualify (if they were ranked higher than Notre Dame and the other three G5 champs).
The playoff would be organized with two 4-team brackets: A southeastern bracket, including the SEC, ACC, and Big XII champions, plus the easternmost non-AQ at large team; and a northwestern bracket, with the SWC, B1G, and PAC champs plus the westernmost at large team. In each bracket, the #1 and #2 seeds host first round games played in prime time immediately after Christmas Day. A week later the southeast bracket winners meet in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, and the northwest winners meet in the Cotton Bowl. The two semifinal winners play for the CFP Championship a week after that - approximately when the CFP final is currently played.
The B1G and PAC both keep their Rose Bowl tie-in, the SEC plays the SWC in the Sugar Bowl, the ACC hosts the Orange Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl gets first choice of the three at large NY6 teams selected from the highest ranked teams without regard to conference not already selected. The site for the CFP Championship is put out for bids.
For their part, both the SWC and SEC stage a "conference" championship game in Week 15, in which the #1 and #2 finishers in each conference round robin meet on the home field of the school which was the visiting team during the round robin.
The B1G might not be thrilled that they don't get a second team in the 8 team playoff. They always have the option of adding two teams so they can do the same as the SEC. Problem there is that there aren't really any viable candidates left that wouldn't represent a serious reduction in their per school payout.
Obviously, there is incentive to schedule in a way that will get you a #1 or #2 seed and home field advantage. While that may not seem "fair" in a playoff, it helps to relieve travel fatigue and expense for the best teams who now have to play 4 post season games to become National Champion instead of 3.
One last point - ESPN doesn't have a monopoly on the NY6 unless they outbid all their competitors. And the conferences may opt to have more than one media partner in the new contract.