(05-27-2020 07:33 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Unemployment should be improving steadily as things reopen. Most of those jobs are service industries, large number in transportation -air, cruise and etc. Theme parks employ thousands, hotels, theaters...

All these got shut down on a dime, they’ll slowly be coming back, some sooner than others. Back to full steam?

No, not like flipping a switch, but as the confidence of consumers in the measures that are taken and hopefully a steady decline of this thing, we should see a quick jump start then gradual improvement going forward.

Stock mkt doesn’t = economy, but it does indicate a measure of confidence in America’s most important companies. (FIFY)

Anyone with a 401k, State/Fed pension or any other retirement vehicle likely has a fair share of it in the stock market. If they don’t, they’re nuts.

LEADING INDICATOR

(05-27-2020 07:33 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Unemployment should be improving steadily as things reopen. Most of those jobs are service industries, large number in transportation -air, cruise and etc. Theme parks employ thousands, hotels, theaters...

All these got shut down on a dime, they’ll slowly be coming back, some sooner than others. Back to full steam?

No, not like flipping a switch, but as the confidence of consumers in the measures that are taken and hopefully a steady decline of this thing, we should see a quick jump start then gradual improvement going forward.

Stock mkt doesn’t = economy, but it does indicate a measure of confidence in the economy.

Anyone with a 401k, State/Fed pension or any other retirement vehicle likely has a fair share of it in the stock market. If they don’t, they’re nuts.

It's not meaningless, but at the same time it's not the end all be all of economic indicators. I'd argue in terms of the average american it's probably one of the least valuable ones. Only about 54% of American's own any stock at all, and 10% of american's control about 84% of the value of American stock shares. It is mostly a measure of rich people's feelings, they all panicked in March, but then were reassured in April that the FED would ensure they had all the liquidity they needed. Of those 46% of American's that don't own stock I'm just guessing here but it's probably largely made up of those service workers who lost their jobs, so they aren't even benefiting from the market rebound. If you are a restaurant worker dependent on tips how long are you seriously looking at before things get anywhere close to "normal"?