RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 06:14 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-11-2020 02:07 PM)umbluegray Wrote:
(05-11-2020 10:28 AM)Redwingtom Wrote: As I and others said from the beginning. It's a no-win situation. There is literally NO way to count how many deaths were saved by shutting things down. So if the deaths are lower than projected, detractors can claim we did all this for nothing, but can't in any way prove it.
Can we count the number of people who died because of the shutdown? There have been reports of people who died of stroke or heart attack because they did not want to leave their homes. Also reports of depression and resulting suicides.
Sure, but you also need to count the number of lives saved from no school shootings, and fewer traffic deaths...and I think overall violent crime is also down, but I'm just guessing.
But even in your examples, people who commit suicide or have other health issues were not guaranteed to survive if there was no lockdown. You can only estimate and assume really...on both ends of the spectrum.
it's immeasurable in scope....
yep, been pointing out that caveat too....
keep riding the #pining....
%s are going to change/manipulated due all this horse-puckey...
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2020 09:21 AM by stinkfist.)
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 06:14 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-11-2020 02:07 PM)umbluegray Wrote:
(05-11-2020 10:28 AM)Redwingtom Wrote: As I and others said from the beginning. It's a no-win situation. There is literally NO way to count how many deaths were saved by shutting things down. So if the deaths are lower than projected, detractors can claim we did all this for nothing, but can't in any way prove it.
Can we count the number of people who died because of the shutdown? There have been reports of people who died of stroke or heart attack because they did not want to leave their homes. Also reports of depression and resulting suicides.
Sure, but you also need to count the number of lives saved from no school shootings, and fewer traffic deaths...and I think overall violent crime is also down, but I'm just guessing.
But even in your examples, people who commit suicide or have other health issues were not guaranteed to survive if there was no lockdown. You can only estimate and assume really...on both ends of the spectrum.
Well, actually homicides are up in Memphis, so that falls on my side of the ledger.
There's a park across the street from our house. Every so often food trucks set up. Just last week, Thursday as a matter of fact, I ordered from one of the food trucks. There were two police cars there and the officers were having dinner.
While I was waiting for my order I started a conversation with them and asked if crime stats had gone down due to the lockdown. I knew the answer because I read the paper, but it was just small talk.
They chuckled and said that crime had actually gone up. Do you know the reason they gave?
BECAUSE KIDS ARE NOT IN SCHOOL.
They're not sitting at home on lock down. They're running around getting in trouble. Car break-ins have sky rocketed. Our homicide numbers are much higher.
So, that can attributed directly to the lock down.
"...Ultimately, Americans will vote with their feet. When Gov. Brian Kemp allowed some businesses to reopen in Georgia on April 27, he came under blistering attack for being reckless and shoppers remained cautious.
Early on, activity in Georgia’s formerly-closed sectors was gauged to be about 10 percent of pre-crisis levels; now that has risen to roughly 70 percent, according to one private survey...."
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 09:32 AM)umbluegray Wrote:
(05-12-2020 06:14 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-11-2020 02:07 PM)umbluegray Wrote:
(05-11-2020 10:28 AM)Redwingtom Wrote: As I and others said from the beginning. It's a no-win situation. There is literally NO way to count how many deaths were saved by shutting things down. So if the deaths are lower than projected, detractors can claim we did all this for nothing, but can't in any way prove it.
Can we count the number of people who died because of the shutdown? There have been reports of people who died of stroke or heart attack because they did not want to leave their homes. Also reports of depression and resulting suicides.
Sure, but you also need to count the number of lives saved from no school shootings, and fewer traffic deaths...and I think overall violent crime is also down, but I'm just guessing.
But even in your examples, people who commit suicide or have other health issues were not guaranteed to survive if there was no lockdown. You can only estimate and assume really...on both ends of the spectrum.
Well, actually homicides are up in Memphis, so that falls on my side of the ledger.
There's a park across the street from our house. Every so often food trucks set up. Just last week, Thursday as a matter of fact, I ordered from one of the food trucks. There were two police cars there and the officers were having dinner.
While I was waiting for my order I started a conversation with them and asked if crime stats had gone down due to the lockdown. I knew the answer because I read the paper, but it was just small talk.
They chuckled and said that crime had actually gone up. Do you know the reason they gave?
BECAUSE KIDS ARE NOT IN SCHOOL.
They're not sitting at home on lock down. They're running around getting in trouble. Car break-ins have sky rocketed. Our homicide numbers are much higher.
So, that can attributed directly to the lock down.
And I doubt this is unique to Memphis.
it isn't unique to MEM....ya nailed the reason in bold...
#headOnAswivel from the field....
it's amazing how fk'd the fk up this bs has become....and it only took #~1mos.
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2020 10:02 AM by stinkfist.)
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 07:38 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:
(05-12-2020 07:23 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-12-2020 06:37 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:
(05-12-2020 06:14 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-11-2020 02:07 PM)umbluegray Wrote: Can we count the number of people who died because of the shutdown? There have been reports of people who died of stroke or heart attack because they did not want to leave their homes. Also reports of depression and resulting suicides. Hospitals report fewer heart attacks and strokes amid COVID-19
Sure, but you also need to count the number of lives saved from no school shootings, and fewer traffic deaths...and I think overall violent crime is also down, but I'm just guessing.
But even in your examples, people who commit suicide or have other health issues were not guaranteed to survive if there was no lockdown. You can only estimate and assume really...on both ends of the spectrum.
We also need to consider the widespread misery caused to millions by the economic and other hardships resulting from the lockdown. The number of lives saved from no school sooting is minuscule. And we need to factor in that a significant number of those who died from the virus were pretty much on their last legs anyway.
So if the tradeoff is 50-100,000 deaths compared to economic ruin for 20 million plus their families, I'm just not sure became out on the right end of that. Sweden did not shot down, but they did protect those at risk, and they have been running about 50-60 deaths per million higher. That translates into 20,000 more deaths here. I really, seriously question whether saving 20,000 lives is a winner if the cost is ruining 20 million lives.
At Vandiver's recommendation, I have been reading geopolitical strategist (and former founder of STRATFOR) George Friedman's new book, The Storm Before the Calm. Friedman sees a struggle in the USA between the elite experts and common sense. He forecasts that it will come to a head within the next year. It's interesting, but in this case it is those elite experts who have been wrong. The experts recommended against closing down travel from China. The experts at CDC and FDA totally screwed the pooch on testing. The experts with their models totally blew their projections and led to the shutdown over what turns out to have been bad information.
I look at Japan and Sweden, neither of whom shut down. Sweden has gotten slightly higher death rates, but they kept their economy alive and believe they have built herd immunity. Hard to believe that "socialist" Sweden has taken a less socialistic approach than we have. (Hint: Sweden's not socialist) Japan took a similar approach, but the Japanese wear masks routinely even before this. Their rates of infection are lower than our rates of death. If Trump made a mistake, it was trusting the elite experts too much. I'm pretty sure that Obama or Hillary or Biden would ave trusted the experts even more. I don't see how that would have made things better.
You realize this is likely not a thing with this yet, right?
It is a thing. CV19 has been here since 2019. Likely 10's of millions had it before the first positive test. Sweden no lock down and closing of the economy.
Daniil Gorbatenko
@Daniilgor
·
23h
New C19 deaths just collapsed in Sweden. It won't have more than 4,000 C19 deaths, and the Ferguson model predicted 96,000. https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
Sweden will have way fewer deaths per capita in the end than an average country with a large epidemic, lockdown and low testing
Sweden has 2-4 times the death rate of their neighbors. They should be compared to Finland, Norway and Denmark, not the US.
I haven't seen any data on how their economy is fareing compared to their neighbors. But on deaths, they clearly have a much worse situation.
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 10:02 AM)stinkfist Wrote:
(05-12-2020 09:32 AM)umbluegray Wrote:
(05-12-2020 06:14 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-11-2020 02:07 PM)umbluegray Wrote:
(05-11-2020 10:28 AM)Redwingtom Wrote: As I and others said from the beginning. It's a no-win situation. There is literally NO way to count how many deaths were saved by shutting things down. So if the deaths are lower than projected, detractors can claim we did all this for nothing, but can't in any way prove it.
Can we count the number of people who died because of the shutdown? There have been reports of people who died of stroke or heart attack because they did not want to leave their homes. Also reports of depression and resulting suicides.
Sure, but you also need to count the number of lives saved from no school shootings, and fewer traffic deaths...and I think overall violent crime is also down, but I'm just guessing.
But even in your examples, people who commit suicide or have other health issues were not guaranteed to survive if there was no lockdown. You can only estimate and assume really...on both ends of the spectrum.
Well, actually homicides are up in Memphis, so that falls on my side of the ledger.
There's a park across the street from our house. Every so often food trucks set up. Just last week, Thursday as a matter of fact, I ordered from one of the food trucks. There were two police cars there and the officers were having dinner.
While I was waiting for my order I started a conversation with them and asked if crime stats had gone down due to the lockdown. I knew the answer because I read the paper, but it was just small talk.
They chuckled and said that crime had actually gone up. Do you know the reason they gave?
BECAUSE KIDS ARE NOT IN SCHOOL.
They're not sitting at home on lock down. They're running around getting in trouble. Car break-ins have sky rocketed. Our homicide numbers are much higher.
So, that can attributed directly to the lock down.
And I doubt this is unique to Memphis.
it isn't unique to MEM....ya nailed the reason in bold...
#headOnAswivel from the field....
it's amazing how fk'd the fk up this bs has become....and it only took #~1mos.
We have had gang violence going on down on the Coast. Lots of it. One kid my kids know was killed, another shot. All either high school or college kids. A couple of the college age kids that got arrested should have been up at school. My daughter knows two guys that committed suicide during the past month. She has never known anyone to commit suicide prior to this. Suicides don't make the news.
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 10:19 AM)bullet Wrote: Sweden has 2-4 times the death rate of their neighbors. They should be compared to Finland, Norway and Denmark, not the US.
I haven't seen any data on how their economy is fareing compared to their neighbors. But on deaths, they clearly have a much worse situation.
On deaths, it's still a minuscule number. We are talking about a tiny fraction of 1%. Is that worth shutting down an entire economy for that? Say we had done the Sweden thing and had gotten 2-4 times the deaths we have had. We're talking 100,000-250,000 people, the vast majority of whom had significant health issues beforehand. Is that a reasonable tradeoff for putting 20-30 million people out of working ruining the lives of 20-30 million families? If a close relative or I were one of the 100,000-250,000, maybe subjectively yes. But to the nation as a whole? I'm not sure.
To be clear, I'm not saying yes or no. What I am saying is that's the tradeoff, and I'm not sure the answer is clear.
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 10:36 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:
(05-12-2020 10:02 AM)stinkfist Wrote:
(05-12-2020 09:32 AM)umbluegray Wrote:
(05-12-2020 06:14 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-11-2020 02:07 PM)umbluegray Wrote: Can we count the number of people who died because of the shutdown? There have been reports of people who died of stroke or heart attack because they did not want to leave their homes. Also reports of depression and resulting suicides.
Sure, but you also need to count the number of lives saved from no school shootings, and fewer traffic deaths...and I think overall violent crime is also down, but I'm just guessing.
But even in your examples, people who commit suicide or have other health issues were not guaranteed to survive if there was no lockdown. You can only estimate and assume really...on both ends of the spectrum.
Well, actually homicides are up in Memphis, so that falls on my side of the ledger.
There's a park across the street from our house. Every so often food trucks set up. Just last week, Thursday as a matter of fact, I ordered from one of the food trucks. There were two police cars there and the officers were having dinner.
While I was waiting for my order I started a conversation with them and asked if crime stats had gone down due to the lockdown. I knew the answer because I read the paper, but it was just small talk.
They chuckled and said that crime had actually gone up. Do you know the reason they gave?
BECAUSE KIDS ARE NOT IN SCHOOL.
They're not sitting at home on lock down. They're running around getting in trouble. Car break-ins have sky rocketed. Our homicide numbers are much higher.
So, that can attributed directly to the lock down.
And I doubt this is unique to Memphis.
it isn't unique to MEM....ya nailed the reason in bold...
#headOnAswivel from the field....
it's amazing how fk'd the fk up this bs has become....and it only took #~1mos.
We have had gang violence going on down on the Coast. Lots of it. One kid my kids know was killed, another shot. All either high school or college kids. A couple of the college age kids that got arrested should have been up at school. My daughter knows two guys that committed suicide during the past month. She has never known anyone to commit suicide prior to this. Suicides don't make the news.
it's so simple, pal...increased suicide was a given....
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 10:42 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:
(05-12-2020 10:19 AM)bullet Wrote: Sweden has 2-4 times the death rate of their neighbors. They should be compared to Finland, Norway and Denmark, not the US.
I haven't seen any data on how their economy is fareing compared to their neighbors. But on deaths, they clearly have a much worse situation.
On deaths, it's still a minuscule number. We are talking about a tiny fraction of 1%. Is that worth shutting down an entire economy for that? Say we had done the Sweden thing and had gotten 2-4 times the deaths we have had. We're talking 100,000-250,000 people, the vast majority of whom had significant health issues beforehand. Is that a reasonable tradeoff for putting 20-30 million people out of working ruining the lives of 20-30 million families? If a close relative or I were one of the 100,000-250,000, maybe subjectively yes. But to the nation as a whole? I'm not sure.
To be clear, I'm not saying yes or no. What I am saying is that's the tradeoff, and I'm not sure the answer is clear.
Sweden has grown in deaths. Its now 6 times the rate of Finland or Norway and 3.5 times the rate of Denmark. Sweden's death rate of 325 per million is higher than all "real" countries except for the 5 in the west European hot spot-Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK and France.
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 09:32 AM)umbluegray Wrote:
(05-12-2020 06:14 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-11-2020 02:07 PM)umbluegray Wrote:
(05-11-2020 10:28 AM)Redwingtom Wrote: As I and others said from the beginning. It's a no-win situation. There is literally NO way to count how many deaths were saved by shutting things down. So if the deaths are lower than projected, detractors can claim we did all this for nothing, but can't in any way prove it.
Can we count the number of people who died because of the shutdown? There have been reports of people who died of stroke or heart attack because they did not want to leave their homes. Also reports of depression and resulting suicides.
Sure, but you also need to count the number of lives saved from no school shootings, and fewer traffic deaths...and I think overall violent crime is also down, but I'm just guessing.
But even in your examples, people who commit suicide or have other health issues were not guaranteed to survive if there was no lockdown. You can only estimate and assume really...on both ends of the spectrum.
Well, actually homicides are up in Memphis, so that falls on my side of the ledger.
There's a park across the street from our house. Every so often food trucks set up. Just last week, Thursday as a matter of fact, I ordered from one of the food trucks. There were two police cars there and the officers were having dinner.
While I was waiting for my order I started a conversation with them and asked if crime stats had gone down due to the lockdown. I knew the answer because I read the paper, but it was just small talk.
They chuckled and said that crime had actually gone up. Do you know the reason they gave?
BECAUSE KIDS ARE NOT IN SCHOOL.
They're not sitting at home on lock down. They're running around getting in trouble. Car break-ins have sky rocketed. Our homicide numbers are much higher.
So, that can attributed directly to the lock down.
And I doubt this is unique to Memphis.
The banned troll called me a racist when I made this prediction the day they closed SCS. Petty crime increases every summer in major population centers because these teens are not locked up in school and no one at home to make sure they are staying out of trouble.
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 12:39 PM)bullet Wrote:
(05-12-2020 10:42 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:
(05-12-2020 10:19 AM)bullet Wrote: Sweden has 2-4 times the death rate of their neighbors. They should be compared to Finland, Norway and Denmark, not the US.
I haven't seen any data on how their economy is fareing compared to their neighbors. But on deaths, they clearly have a much worse situation.
On deaths, it's still a minuscule number. We are talking about a tiny fraction of 1%. Is that worth shutting down an entire economy for that? Say we had done the Sweden thing and had gotten 2-4 times the deaths we have had. We're talking 100,000-250,000 people, the vast majority of whom had significant health issues beforehand. Is that a reasonable tradeoff for putting 20-30 million people out of working ruining the lives of 20-30 million families? If a close relative or I were one of the 100,000-250,000, maybe subjectively yes. But to the nation as a whole? I'm not sure.
To be clear, I'm not saying yes or no. What I am saying is that's the tradeoff, and I'm not sure the answer is clear.
Sweden has grown in deaths. Its now 6 times the rate of Finland or Norway and 3.5 times the rate of Denmark. Sweden's death rate of 325 per million is higher than all "real" countries except for the 5 in the west European hot spot-Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK and France.
and what is their gps position and age denigraphic relative to latitude........hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2020 01:06 PM by stinkfist.)
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 10:19 AM)bullet Wrote:
(05-12-2020 07:38 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:
(05-12-2020 07:23 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-12-2020 06:37 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:
(05-12-2020 06:14 AM)Redwingtom Wrote: Sure, but you also need to count the number of lives saved from no school shootings, and fewer traffic deaths...and I think overall violent crime is also down, but I'm just guessing.
But even in your examples, people who commit suicide or have other health issues were not guaranteed to survive if there was no lockdown. You can only estimate and assume really...on both ends of the spectrum.
We also need to consider the widespread misery caused to millions by the economic and other hardships resulting from the lockdown. The number of lives saved from no school sooting is minuscule. And we need to factor in that a significant number of those who died from the virus were pretty much on their last legs anyway.
So if the tradeoff is 50-100,000 deaths compared to economic ruin for 20 million plus their families, I'm just not sure became out on the right end of that. Sweden did not shot down, but they did protect those at risk, and they have been running about 50-60 deaths per million higher. That translates into 20,000 more deaths here. I really, seriously question whether saving 20,000 lives is a winner if the cost is ruining 20 million lives.
At Vandiver's recommendation, I have been reading geopolitical strategist (and former founder of STRATFOR) George Friedman's new book, The Storm Before the Calm. Friedman sees a struggle in the USA between the elite experts and common sense. He forecasts that it will come to a head within the next year. It's interesting, but in this case it is those elite experts who have been wrong. The experts recommended against closing down travel from China. The experts at CDC and FDA totally screwed the pooch on testing. The experts with their models totally blew their projections and led to the shutdown over what turns out to have been bad information.
I look at Japan and Sweden, neither of whom shut down. Sweden has gotten slightly higher death rates, but they kept their economy alive and believe they have built herd immunity. Hard to believe that "socialist" Sweden has taken a less socialistic approach than we have. (Hint: Sweden's not socialist) Japan took a similar approach, but the Japanese wear masks routinely even before this. Their rates of infection are lower than our rates of death. If Trump made a mistake, it was trusting the elite experts too much. I'm pretty sure that Obama or Hillary or Biden would ave trusted the experts even more. I don't see how that would have made things better.
You realize this is likely not a thing with this yet, right?
It is a thing. CV19 has been here since 2019. Likely 10's of millions had it before the first positive test. Sweden no lock down and closing of the economy.
Daniil Gorbatenko
@Daniilgor
·
23h
New C19 deaths just collapsed in Sweden. It won't have more than 4,000 C19 deaths, and the Ferguson model predicted 96,000. https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
Sweden will have way fewer deaths per capita in the end than an average country with a large epidemic, lockdown and low testing
Sweden has 2-4 times the death rate of their neighbors. They should be compared to Finland, Norway and Denmark, not the US.
I haven't seen any data on how their economy is fareing compared to their neighbors. But on deaths, they clearly have a much worse situation.
RE: 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
(05-12-2020 01:36 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:
(05-12-2020 10:19 AM)bullet Wrote:
(05-12-2020 07:38 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:
(05-12-2020 07:23 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:
(05-12-2020 06:37 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: We also need to consider the widespread misery caused to millions by the economic and other hardships resulting from the lockdown. The number of lives saved from no school sooting is minuscule. And we need to factor in that a significant number of those who died from the virus were pretty much on their last legs anyway.
So if the tradeoff is 50-100,000 deaths compared to economic ruin for 20 million plus their families, I'm just not sure became out on the right end of that. Sweden did not shot down, but they did protect those at risk, and they have been running about 50-60 deaths per million higher. That translates into 20,000 more deaths here. I really, seriously question whether saving 20,000 lives is a winner if the cost is ruining 20 million lives.
At Vandiver's recommendation, I have been reading geopolitical strategist (and former founder of STRATFOR) George Friedman's new book, The Storm Before the Calm. Friedman sees a struggle in the USA between the elite experts and common sense. He forecasts that it will come to a head within the next year. It's interesting, but in this case it is those elite experts who have been wrong. The experts recommended against closing down travel from China. The experts at CDC and FDA totally screwed the pooch on testing. The experts with their models totally blew their projections and led to the shutdown over what turns out to have been bad information.
I look at Japan and Sweden, neither of whom shut down. Sweden has gotten slightly higher death rates, but they kept their economy alive and believe they have built herd immunity. Hard to believe that "socialist" Sweden has taken a less socialistic approach than we have. (Hint: Sweden's not socialist) Japan took a similar approach, but the Japanese wear masks routinely even before this. Their rates of infection are lower than our rates of death. If Trump made a mistake, it was trusting the elite experts too much. I'm pretty sure that Obama or Hillary or Biden would ave trusted the experts even more. I don't see how that would have made things better.
You realize this is likely not a thing with this yet, right?
It is a thing. CV19 has been here since 2019. Likely 10's of millions had it before the first positive test. Sweden no lock down and closing of the economy.
Daniil Gorbatenko
@Daniilgor
·
23h
New C19 deaths just collapsed in Sweden. It won't have more than 4,000 C19 deaths, and the Ferguson model predicted 96,000. https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
Sweden will have way fewer deaths per capita in the end than an average country with a large epidemic, lockdown and low testing
Sweden has 2-4 times the death rate of their neighbors. They should be compared to Finland, Norway and Denmark, not the US.
I haven't seen any data on how their economy is fareing compared to their neighbors. But on deaths, they clearly have a much worse situation.
/
[NEWS] 15 Days After Lockdown Ease, Georgia Sees Lowest Day Of COVID Hospitalizations
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