XLance
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RE: If 2020 Has No NCAA Football Let's Declare All TV Contracts and GOR's Null & Void
(05-01-2020 03:11 PM)JRsec Wrote: (05-01-2020 02:59 PM)XLance Wrote: (05-01-2020 12:55 PM)JRsec Wrote: (04-30-2020 11:52 AM)ken d Wrote: If all contracts and GoRs were truly null and void, including the CFP contract, the more I study this the more it seems to me that the SEC holds all the cards. The B1G can offer money (for now), but not much else. And if they were to expand, it would be at the cost of diluting per school share with little to no benefit on the field.
With that in mind, and with the ACC now fully in play, I would suggest that the SEC go big. I'm talking mega big. Throw your weight around big.
This would be my new SEC (in order of their 10 year average Sagarin rating):
East: Clemson, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, NC State, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
West: Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Florida State, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas, Ole Miss and Arkansas.
I wouldn't just stage a CCG, or even a four team championship tournament. I'd have an eight team playoff (there are surely enough great teams here to pull that off). First round pairings in Week 15 are (with the higher seeded team hosting):
West #4 @ East #1
West #3 @ East #2
East #3 @ West #2
East #4 @ West #1
Semis are the following week, and the Conference final is played at the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day.
The B1G and the PAC determine their champs however they choose, and the two champions meet in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.
The ACC, which has now lost four members, adds West Virginia and Cincinnati, and divides as follows:
North: West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse
South: Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia and Wake Forest
The ACC champion Hosts the Orange Bowl against an at-large team.
The Big XII has lost 3 members. They backfill with four teams from the AAC and BYU (football only). They divide as follows:
Northwest: Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Texas Tech, BYU, Iowa St and Kansas
Southeast: TCU, Baylor, UCF, Houston, Memphis, and USF
Their champion hosts the Fiesta Bowl.
The six remaining teams in the NY6 are the highest ranked teams not already in the field. The higher ranking of the ACC and Big XII champs hosts the highest ranked at large team, while the lower ranked champ hosts the second highest ranked at large. The rankings are determined by a composite of the AP and Coaches' polls plus the Massey, Sagarin and BPI rankings.
At the completion of the NY6, the two highest ranked bowl winners play the following week for the National Championship.
To complete the realignment, the AAC takes Marshall and Rice from CUSA (leaving them with 12) and Appalachian State from the Belt, leaving them with 9 FB members (11 overall). This gives Navy an annual game against schools from both Dallas and Houston, takes Marshall off an island within CUSA and gives ECU an in-state rival.
The MWC, MAC, PAC and B1G remain just as they are, and Notre Dame remains independent with a path to a national championship.
Finis!
Given the parameters this is a fairly logical outcome. As I see it the reasoning behind what you suggest would be as follows:
1. Football culturally is the strongest in the South. Being a major football school clustered with other major football schools would create the massive economic synergy you describe. That alone would be extremely difficult to pass up.
2. The new ACC that is formed would be a lot more cohesive in their sense of athletic mission than the one that currently exists, although I think it is quite possible that Vanderbilt would prefer it to what the SEC would become. I also think it quite possible that Kentucky might well prefer to compete more at the level of the remaining ACC as well. Both Vanderbilt and Kentucky could accomplish more athletically by making such a move.
3. I disagree about the 30 million dollar gap in media revenue. It's going to be near 30 million by 2024 as things currently stand contractually. So using that as a measuring stick with the additions of Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Florida State from a content multiplier standpoint and N.C. State and Virginia Tech from a market standpoint, the revenue gap might be as much as 40 million versus the other PAC and ACC schools and the Big 12 remnant. I think the gap with the Big 10 could be in the 12-15 million dollar range.
4. I also think that with that kind of money at stake what you might see is all conferences agree to hold football associations separate from all other athletic associations.
If so you could take the SEC as you have it comported sans Vanderbilt and Kentucky and add the following:
Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska from the Big 10.
Southern California, Stanford, U.C.L.A, Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State from the PAC.
And Brigham Young and Notre Dame as independents
Now with the remaining 18 schools you have listed with the SEC sans Vanderbilt and perhaps Kentucky you have 36 schools that form an upper tier of football separate from all other college sports affiliations.
5. So my thinking here Ken D is that it might be easier to keep all conferences aligned as they currently are for all other sports and to separate football from any conference arrangement as it presently exists and to let the top 36 football worshiping media darlings to give the corporate networks what they want most, a super conference of 36 schools which for football only would act as a single unit contractually.
This way those 36 could max out their media revenues without directly impacting all other sports, including basketball. Let their boosters pour money into the talent pool (which nationally is shrinking in football) and keep their favorite sports alive without serious competition from the rest of the FBS and FCS. Then all other sports would find their contracts for media revenue remained within a competitively positioned distance of one another.
Basketball and Baseball would become the sports in which all schools competed with what by comparison to football would be a reasonable equality.
It simply seems to me that football would be healthier if it had a super division sans conference affiliation and that all other sports were handled roughly as they are currently and that for those schools participating in the super division in football those funds were held distinct (and quite possibly taxable) and the governance separate from all other sports which would remain under the current athletic department structure.
That way no university would have to suffer major disruptions across all currently offered athletics nor have to worry about what was taxable with regard to those sports and those sports only would be subject to title IX and supported by athletic scholarships fundamentally.
The 36 schools competing in the super division of football would have separate administration to handle the licensing, image, ,pay of, and contractual obligations (not scholarships) of their players.
Separate those 36 football programs from the rest of the NCAA and it creates the fewest waves for everyone involved.
It is football revenue that is driving wedges in-between long standing relationships of the schools. Before football revenue is done bringing these changes if we do not fundamentally hold football separate from all other sports it will eventually cause disruptions even within the current Big 10 and SEC as haves see opportunities to have more without their have nots. Separate it from the rest of college athletics (among those operating at the highest tier of compensation) and you save the rest of college athletics and along with it older academic associations as the need for realignment (a tumor within the university world) is removed from the academic body.
If that's is indeed what you are looking for, then the task is indeed simple.
One take the 14 schools of the SEC and the 14 schools of the ACC and add the four Texas schools to get a total of 32 (we will assume as you have noted that Notre Dame will remain a partial with this group).
Take the remaining 32 schools of the Big 12, B1G and PAC to divide into a total of 32 and add BYU as a partial.
Then it's just a matter of dividing the 32s into groups of 16.
ESPN
Football group:
Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama, Florida State, Florida, Miami, Georgia, Clemson, Tennessee, NC State, Virginia Tech
Other group:
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Kentucky, Louisville, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Ole Miss, Baylor, TCU
Partial: Notre Dame
FOX
football group:
Washington, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado, West Virginia
other group:
Washington State, Oregon State, California, Stanford, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas
Partial: BYU
If Notre Dame is not joining a conference but rather a rights collective bargaining group there is no need to treat them as a partial.
What there is a need of with what you suggest is a balancing by division of relative football strength as much as is geographically reasonable to do.
And in a collective bargaining position Vanderbilt, B.C., Wake, Oregon State, and Washington State bring down the aggregate way too much to be included.
The whole purpose of treating football differently is to allow it to function as a business where the maximization of profit is to be expected. The reason for including 56 or 60 schools is to have some bell curve on wins and losses.
If this is the purpose, to function solely as a business, then I would follow a professional team.
Without the rah-rah factor collegiate athletics will cease to exist as sport.
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