RE: Bubble Watch 2020
Well, when Wichita State joined the American in 2017, reports started coming out in March of that year. They were ultimately voted-in in April. If the timeline is to be similar - and, to be clear, Wichita was a responsive measure due to the lack of on-court basketball success other than UConn up to that point - then you'd have to think if there is movement before next year, the pieces are likely already in play (especially due to UConn leaving and the AAC's struggles this year). Where I have my doubts is on the following points:
- Dayton (and SLU) would undoubtedly much rather be in the BE than the AAC. This is due to institutional fit, athletic fit, geographic fit and cultural fit. Would the AAC risk adding a member that would inevitably get poached by the BE again? Losing UConn to the BE significantly hurt its perception. Not sure Presidents/ADs/Coaches want to go down that path again.
- Up until this point, there is no evidence (again, thus far) that a team would jump from the A10 to the AAC. I discussed this with Stever earlier, but until we know the breakdown of payments/tournament credits/etc. of being in the A10 to the AAC (where only Wichita State would likely provide a likely comparison), it is a substantial assumption that anyone in the A10 would immediately jump to the AAC. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I don't think it's a sure thing either. Gonzaga turned down the MWC. Lateral moves within non-power conferences are not always so easy as they seem to fans. The pay might be a little bit better, but other costs - both financial and non-financial - come into play.
- The A10 is still a multi-bid league, which is different that Wichita State leaving the MVC (single bid). VCU, as an example, would be adding on significantly more travel for Olympic sports (and move to a Southern-based league) just for basketball; however, has the A10 really held back VCU from competing for tournament bids or advancing in the tournament (I'd say no). For SLU/UD, you become the only Catholic schools in a predominantly Public/Southern conference, many of whom do not prioritize basketball. I'm just not sure it's a sure thing as some have made it out to be.
As an outsider, I do think it is in the best interest for the AAC to add a full-member to get to 12 (and not a stop-gap non-football member until a better option reveals itself). Wichita State filled a need and a role at that point in time (and balanced Navy's football-only membership). We know that Army, BYU, and no one from the MWC is jumping ship (as it would have happened already, since the AAC would take one of those in a heartbeat). Thus, that leaves the one conference where a majority of the AAC plucked its members from: C-USA. I've seen recommendations like Old Dominion, UMass, Liberty, etc. tossed around, but - in my mind - the easiest and best candidate is one that has shared history with many of the AAC already: UAB. They are building a brand-new downtown football stadium, they already built a brand new practice facility, they are not only in the footprint, but established a clear epicenter for the conference, and they bring a solid basketball program (and nice arena too). They also are a nationally ranked academic university. When Memphis and Cincinnati were/are top-15 programs in basketball, their arena averages over 9k. Birmingham is also in a heavily football recruited state, and fits in with the Southern/urban identity the AAC has taken on. Give them a few years in elevated TV payouts, and it would be a strong investment by the AAC for both football and men's basketball IMO.
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