(10-01-2019 11:28 AM)wmubroncopilot Wrote: Strength of opponent, not Jekyll and Hyde.
True
Wk 1 home vs FCS Monmouth
Wk 2 at SP+ #17 MSU
Wk 3 home SP+ #120 GaSt
Wk 4 at SP+ #80 Syracuse
Wk 5 home SP+ #113 CMU
Wk 6 at #92 Toledo
We are rated #67 as of the 9/23 SP+ ratings.
Alternating lowly opponents at home and better competition on the road leads to this trend. At Toledo, who opened as 3.5 pt favorites, will be the real test of a more closely matched foe. TL is in the minus column of games we should’ve won vs good Ws as underdogs. We need him to steal a few to get to Ford Field.
Quote:Toledo is every bit as good as Syracuse, IMO. Point is, can't have another 50+ defensive performance against them
By default, we'll be at least somewhat close that range, assuming crazy weather or crazy turnovers in our favor don't occur.
Even with the CMU game of only 15 pts -- they had more yards than us and solidly over 400. They went for TDs and on 4th downs to go after the Win, which is why. They're not good enough yet to pull that thru. So it's not like our D was rock solid.
I expect @Toledo to get over 40pts. Toledo's D isn't hapless, but we do have a good O, and hopefully we'll improve to avoid stalls. I expect us to score in the 30s if we don't play mistake-filled football.
I have to bet on Toledo with this point spread. Their O, our D ... + their D being seemingly decent. And @Toledo. Did they get some big injury or something?
I'll pay $1,000 to have WMU win this game (but risk them losing by 1).
Quote:Isn't -3 applied automatically to the home team?
General rule of thumb from back in the day, with a good (ie distracting) crowd. Toledo will have a good crowd, but it being close to home + 25k max expected crowd and not a loud stadium setup, I dunno. But tough places to play in the MAC, comparatively speaking, like the Glass Bowl (their coach only lost there 3 times?) -- you'd think it'd make up for it. But yeah, you'd expect at least an extra point or point and a half for them by Vegas.
Which basically makes it a dead-even game on neutral field, which I don't think WMU should be assumed, by default.
Quote:Isn't -3 applied automatically to the home team?
General rule of thumb from back in the day, with a good (ie distracting) crowd. Toledo will have a good crowd, but it being close to home + 25k max expected crowd and not a loud stadium setup, I dunno. But tough places to play in the MAC, comparatively speaking, like the Glass Bowl (their coach only lost there 3 times?) -- you'd think it'd make up for it. But yeah, you'd expect at least an extra point or point and a half for them by Vegas.
Which basically makes it a dead-even game on neutral field, which I don't think WMU should be assumed, by default.
The crowd was pretty juiced for BYU, but it was aided by their giant crowd creating a rivalry in the stands. Our interception in the last minute was fiercely loud. 80% of the students stayed as well.
19:03
Candle lost to both Miami FL, and UB in 2018 at home. He lost to Ohio in 2016.
18-3 at the Glass Bowl.
I think Toledo may actually be better than Syracuse, but that doesn't mean we're totally doomed. If we could simply hold on to the ball against Cuse in the first half we have a 50/50 shot of winning that game.
Syracuse is bigger and faster than Toledo. Their DBs lit us up on several occasions. Ask Eskridge, Bellamy, and Borske. When we pressure the QB good things happen. I'm not worried about offense, this Bronco team can score on anyone.
(10-02-2019 05:38 PM)fastbuicks Wrote: Syracuse is bigger and faster than Toledo. Their DBs lit us up on several occasions. Ask Eskridge, Bellamy, and Borske. When we pressure the QB good things happen. I'm not worried about offense, this Bronco team can score on anyone.
No you can put yards on anyone. Teams with rather average offenses have lit you up in comparison to points that you score...
Bigger faster blah blah. Our play calling and talent development is what runs Toledo's program. WMU will move it on Toledo. Score enough to win is up in the air.
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Jekyll and Hyde defense
