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Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
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nocoolnamejim Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 08:29 AM)mustangxc Wrote:  
(09-06-2019 04:35 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  Just going to gently point out that college football history does go back to before the NY6 bowl era.

When we go back beyond the very carefully chosen cutoff point that a couple of posters have listed in this thread, the count of BCS/NY6 bowl appearances for each conference is...

Boise State: 3 (3 victories.)
AAC conference as a whole: 4 (3-1)

In terms of teams that are still actually in the conference. Not including schools like Utah or TCU for the MWC or schools like Miami, Louisville, West Virginia etc. for the AAC that aren't in the respective conferences anymore because that's not really relevant to how the conferences compare right now.

I mean, if we are going to be intellectually honest, it's just a fact that the American has had more success in recent years, but no team currently in the conference can match BSU in terms of number and success of appearances.

UCF is closest as they've been to the same number (3) but have a 2-1 record vs. BSU's perfect 3-0.

But there's not a single non-P5 team anywhere that matches BSU's 12 times finishing in the top-25 since 2002. Nobody has had BSU's consistency and ability to reload.

Which conference gets the NY6 bowl invite this year is certainly up in the air and should be fun to watch.


If you are going back to 2002 the conference has had 7 teams participate in NY6/BCS games:
Cincinnati has 2 (2008 Orange Bowl with a #17 National Rank, 2009 Sugar Bowl #4 National Rank)
UConn has 1 (2010 Fiesta Bowl)
UCF has 3 (2013 Fiesta Bowl witha #10 National Rank, 2017 Peach Bowl #6 National Rank, 2018 Fiesta Bowl #11 National Rank)
Houston has 1 (2015 Peach Bowl #8 National Rank)

Boise State has 3 (2006 Fiesta Bowl #5 National Rank, 2009 Fiesta Bowl #4 National Rank, 2014 Fiesta Bowl #16 National Rank)

I included national rankings for these teams so that you can see that aside from UConn they all belonged in the games. UConn is the only team that got a bid due to the Big East's past reputation. Even if you subtract that bid, accounting for that and the fact that they are departing the conference we still have 6 teams represented from 3 different schools. Don't flatter yourself. UCF alone has equaled Boise State's national success and the conference is much stronger than Boise State and its little brothers.

AAC 7 MWC 3
UCF 3 BSU 3

It's a bit easier to go to BCS bowls when your conference back then had an auto-bid, whether they were deserved or not.

If we're going on national rankings, then BSU would have gone to three additional BCS bowls but just did not have the autobid.

2004 - 11-0 at the end of regular season and ranked #10
2008 - 12-0 at the end of the regular season and ranked #9.
2010 - 11-1 at the end of the regular season and ranked #10

UCF is the closest of the AAC teams to replicating BSU's success, but, unlike BSU, they've not been as consistent. They've had some truly ugly seasons.


2003 - 3-9 MAC
2004 - 0-11 season. Winless. In the MAC.
2006 - 4-8 CUSA
2008 - 4-8 CUSA
2011 - 5-7 CUSA
2015 - 0-12 Winless. American.
2016 - 6-7 American

You don't see these sorts of seasons on BSU's resume. So, as I said, UCF is the closest to replicating BSU but they haven't done it by any criteria you care to list.

1. Number of BCS/NY6 bowl wins. BSU 3, UCF 2
2. Number of years finishing in the final top-25. BSU 12, UCF 4
3. Consistency of winning seasons. BSU every year since 1998. UCF 12 times over the same period.
4. Overall record over the years.
5. Conference championships. BSU 13. UCF 6
6. Bowl wins. BSU 12, UCF 4
7. Bowl appearances. BSU 19, UCF 10

UCF:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_UC...ll_seasons

Boise State:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bo...ll_seasons

Interestingly, BSU and UCF both entered the FBS in the same year. (1996) So it's easy to do a direct comparison. And there's not a single metric where UCF is all that close to BSU except for number of BCS/NY6 bowl appearances.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2019 02:13 PM by nocoolnamejim.)
09-07-2019 02:02 PM
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nocoolnamejim Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
Worth adding...but going by YOUR OWN CRITERIA of worthiness. (National ranking.)

We should remove two appearances by current American teams in BCS/NY6 bowls because the teams that went to them were ranked below BSU and add them to BSU's total.

So, again, by your own criteria of worthiness, BSU should have gone to the BCS bowl in 2008 instead of Cincinatti and in 2010 over UCONN.

Add in 2004 when they also were ranked high enough to deserve to go to it by your national rankings justification and the totals are.

BSU - 6
UCF - 3
American as a whole - 5

Again. This is based on your criteria of what qualifies as worthiness. (National rankings at the end of the season.)
09-07-2019 02:26 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #103
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 01:55 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 01:05 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 10:40 AM)thespywhozaggedme Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 10:17 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 09:55 AM)thespywhozaggedme Wrote:  The fact that you're comparing an entire conference to a single team is extremely flattering. Thank you

Conferences are how we get media deals.
Conference performance gets direct payoff from the CFP
Conferences are how we get bowl deals.
The whole point of P6 is that (after the BigXII expansion sham) the conference is how we hope to end up on the right side of the next big restructure.

So the conference as a whole is germane to the conversation.

Moreover, Boise fans talk about Boise's accomplishments over the last decade plus as if they somehow set Boise a world apart. They don't. The achievements of multiple AAC schools get brought into the conversation because most of us from an individual school perspective, say "nice little run, but nothing my school hasnt had before." When thats aggregated into the whole conference....Boise's just not all that impressive. Sorry not sorry.

Well, if they say that, they'd be lying. Facts don't care about your feelings.

Navy is #24 in Division I all time wins 712 of them.
Navy has a national championship.
Navy has 2 Heismans in the trophy case.
Navy has Rose Sugar Cotton and Orange Bowls.
Since 2002 Navy has more wins over BCS auto-qualifiers / CFP contract bowl conference teams than Boise.
In 2018, more viewers watched Army-Navy than all ten rated Boise games, including bowl game and ccg.
^^ These are facts ^^

I am not really that impressed by Boises little run. That is an opinion, but it sure is based on facts


How many of these great things did Navy do in AAC?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Well, certainly the last one, which shoots down the early assertion in this thread that Boise has some kind of brand.
Our "P5" scalps as an AAC member include Notre Dame, Pitt in a bowl, and UVA in a bowl.
In season ending rankings Navy's #18 in 2015 is better than Boise has been in the same time period.
No Heisman but I believe Keenan Reynolds' fifth place in Heisman voting and his NCAA record for touchdowns scored are unequalled by Boise 2015-2018, or ever.

Again, Boise has nothing for Navy or a lot of other AAC teams to be impressed by.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2019 02:27 PM by slhNavy91.)
09-07-2019 02:26 PM
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nocoolnamejim Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 02:26 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 01:55 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 01:05 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 10:40 AM)thespywhozaggedme Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 10:17 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Conferences are how we get media deals.
Conference performance gets direct payoff from the CFP
Conferences are how we get bowl deals.
The whole point of P6 is that (after the BigXII expansion sham) the conference is how we hope to end up on the right side of the next big restructure.

So the conference as a whole is germane to the conversation.

Moreover, Boise fans talk about Boise's accomplishments over the last decade plus as if they somehow set Boise a world apart. They don't. The achievements of multiple AAC schools get brought into the conversation because most of us from an individual school perspective, say "nice little run, but nothing my school hasnt had before." When thats aggregated into the whole conference....Boise's just not all that impressive. Sorry not sorry.

Well, if they say that, they'd be lying. Facts don't care about your feelings.

Navy is #24 in Division I all time wins 712 of them.
Navy has a national championship.
Navy has 2 Heismans in the trophy case.
Navy has Rose Sugar Cotton and Orange Bowls.
Since 2002 Navy has more wins over BCS auto-qualifiers / CFP contract bowl conference teams than Boise.
In 2018, more viewers watched Army-Navy than all ten rated Boise games, including bowl game and ccg.
^^ These are facts ^^

I am not really that impressed by Boises little run. That is an opinion, but it sure is based on facts


How many of these great things did Navy do in AAC?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Well, certainly the last one, which shoots down the early assertion in this thread that Boise has some kind of brand.
Our "P5" scalps as an AAC member include Notre Dame, Pitt in a bowl, and UVA in a bowl.
In season ending rankings Navy's #18 in 2015 is better than Boise has been in the same time period.
No Heisman but I believe Keenan Reynolds' fifth place in Heisman voting and his NCAA record for touchdowns scored are unequalled by Boise 2015-2018, or ever.

Again, Boise has nothing for Navy or a lot of other AAC teams to be impressed by.

Re: the bolded part.

Kellen Moore had a 50-3 record as a starter at BSU, finished 4th in the Heisman voting behind Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and LaMichael James, and had 142 career touchdowns in college compared to Reynolds' 88.

2nd all-time in NCAA history in passing touchdowns
6th all-time in NCAA history in passing yards
5th all-time in NCAA history in career passing efficiency

I'd consider that to be at least the equal of what Reynolds accomplished, particularly given that during those years the offense had good run/pass balance and wasn't one of those teams that throws it 50 times per game.

The three losses were by a TOTAL of 5 points combined. If the Broncos had a reliable kicker who could hit 26 yarders he'd have gone unbeaten for his entire college career.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2019 02:47 PM by nocoolnamejim.)
09-07-2019 02:43 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 02:43 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:26 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 01:55 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 01:05 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 10:40 AM)thespywhozaggedme Wrote:  Well, if they say that, they'd be lying. Facts don't care about your feelings.

Navy is #24 in Division I all time wins 712 of them.
Navy has a national championship.
Navy has 2 Heismans in the trophy case.
Navy has Rose Sugar Cotton and Orange Bowls.
Since 2002 Navy has more wins over BCS auto-qualifiers / CFP contract bowl conference teams than Boise.
In 2018, more viewers watched Army-Navy than all ten rated Boise games, including bowl game and ccg.
^^ These are facts ^^

I am not really that impressed by Boises little run. That is an opinion, but it sure is based on facts


How many of these great things did Navy do in AAC?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Well, certainly the last one, which shoots down the early assertion in this thread that Boise has some kind of brand.
Our "P5" scalps as an AAC member include Notre Dame, Pitt in a bowl, and UVA in a bowl.
In season ending rankings Navy's #18 in 2015 is better than Boise has been in the same time period.
No Heisman but I believe Keenan Reynolds' fifth place in Heisman voting and his NCAA record for touchdowns scored are unequalled by Boise 2015-2018, or ever.

Again, Boise has nothing for Navy or a lot of other AAC teams to be impressed by.

Re: the bolded part.

Kellen Moore had a 50-3 record as a starter at BSU, finished 4th in the Heisman voting behind Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and LaMichael James, and had 142 career touchdowns in college compared to Reynolds' 88.

2nd all-time in NCAA history in passing touchdowns
6th all-time in NCAA history in passing yards
5th all-time in NCAA history in career passing efficiency

I'd consider that to be at least the equal of what Reynolds accomplished, particularly given that during those years the offense had good run/pass balance and wasn't one of those teams that throws it 50 times per game.

The three losses were by a TOTAL of 5 points combined. If the Broncos had a reliable kicker who could hit 26 yarders he'd have gone unbeaten for his entire college career.

So not in the timeframe Jjoey was asking about, but 4th is better than 5th...takes away my not ever.
Reynolds record is touchdowns scored - he has entered the end zone more than any other college football player in DI history.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2019 02:59 PM by slhNavy91.)
09-07-2019 02:49 PM
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nocoolnamejim Offline
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Post: #106
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 02:49 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  So not in the timeframe Jjoey was asking about, but 4th is better than 5th...takes away my not ever.
Reynolds record is touchdowns scored - he has entered the end zone more than any other college football player in history.

Yeah agreed. Not in the original timeline, but you added "or ever" so I thought that mentioning the Moore accomplishments was fair game.

Nothing wrong with acknowledging greatness and Reynolds' personal touchdown record is impressive as hell, even for a triple-option team who runs a lot. Cheers.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2019 02:53 PM by nocoolnamejim.)
09-07-2019 02:52 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #107
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 02:52 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:49 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  So not in the timeframe Jjoey was asking about, but 4th is better than 5th...takes away my not ever.
Reynolds record is touchdowns scored - he has entered the end zone more than any other college football player in history.

Yeah agreed. Not in the original timeline, but you added "or ever" so I thought that mentioning the Moore accomplishments was fair game.

Nothing wrong with acknowledging greatness and Reynolds' personal touchdown record is impressive as hell, even for a triple-option team who runs a lot. Cheers.

Totally fair game to take the shot at my "or ever"
Moore had impressive career numbers - 50 wins as a starter is amazing
09-07-2019 03:00 PM
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nocoolnamejim Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 03:00 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:52 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:49 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  So not in the timeframe Jjoey was asking about, but 4th is better than 5th...takes away my not ever.
Reynolds record is touchdowns scored - he has entered the end zone more than any other college football player in history.

Yeah agreed. Not in the original timeline, but you added "or ever" so I thought that mentioning the Moore accomplishments was fair game.

Nothing wrong with acknowledging greatness and Reynolds' personal touchdown record is impressive as hell, even for a triple-option team who runs a lot. Cheers.

Totally fair game to take the shot at my "or ever"
Moore had impressive career numbers - 50 wins as a starter is amazing

Thanks. Appreciated. I at least try to be intellectually honest in my debating. It's why you won't see me arguing the fact that the American conference has been stronger than the MWC in the last few years and that UCF has been the best G5 team over the last few years.

I will argue the points that I think that conference strength does tend to go up and down as players cycle in and out and that UCF hasn't had the sustained run that BSU has had, but I'm not going to argue the math on which conference or team has been better recently.
09-07-2019 03:05 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Post: #109
Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
http://michigan-football.com/ncaa/ncaa_1a.htm


Boise has all time .730 winning %

No AAC team is even at .600 USF highest at .580, Fresno at .586

Side note Navy is .484.


You can also press on a team and get each years scores and w l record against each team.


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(This post was last modified: 09-07-2019 03:48 PM by Jjoey52.)
09-07-2019 03:26 PM
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thespywhozaggedme Offline
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Post: #110
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 03:05 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 03:00 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:52 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:49 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  So not in the timeframe Jjoey was asking about, but 4th is better than 5th...takes away my not ever.
Reynolds record is touchdowns scored - he has entered the end zone more than any other college football player in history.

Yeah agreed. Not in the original timeline, but you added "or ever" so I thought that mentioning the Moore accomplishments was fair game.

Nothing wrong with acknowledging greatness and Reynolds' personal touchdown record is impressive as hell, even for a triple-option team who runs a lot. Cheers.

Totally fair game to take the shot at my "or ever"
Moore had impressive career numbers - 50 wins as a starter is amazing

Thanks. Appreciated. I at least try to be intellectually honest in my debating. It's why you won't see me arguing the fact that the American conference has been stronger than the MWC in the last few years and that UCF has been the best G5 team over the last few years.

I will argue the points that I think that conference strength does tend to go up and down as players cycle in and out and that UCF hasn't had the sustained run that BSU has had, but I'm not going to argue the math on which conference or team has been better recently.

If anyone was arguing that, they would be arguing from emotion, not facts. Facts don't care about our feelings.
09-07-2019 03:32 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #111
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 03:32 PM)thespywhozaggedme Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 03:05 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 03:00 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:52 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:49 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  So not in the timeframe Jjoey was asking about, but 4th is better than 5th...takes away my not ever.
Reynolds record is touchdowns scored - he has entered the end zone more than any other college football player in history.

Yeah agreed. Not in the original timeline, but you added "or ever" so I thought that mentioning the Moore accomplishments was fair game.

Nothing wrong with acknowledging greatness and Reynolds' personal touchdown record is impressive as hell, even for a triple-option team who runs a lot. Cheers.

Totally fair game to take the shot at my "or ever"
Moore had impressive career numbers - 50 wins as a starter is amazing

Thanks. Appreciated. I at least try to be intellectually honest in my debating. It's why you won't see me arguing the fact that the American conference has been stronger than the MWC in the last few years and that UCF has been the best G5 team over the last few years.

I will argue the points that I think that conference strength does tend to go up and down as players cycle in and out and that UCF hasn't had the sustained run that BSU has had, but I'm not going to argue the math on which conference or team has been better recently.

If anyone was arguing that, they would be arguing from emotion, not facts. Facts don't care about our feelings.

Yeah that's not fanhood at all 03-lmfao
09-07-2019 04:12 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #112
RE: Updated ESPN Bowl Projections
(09-07-2019 03:05 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 03:00 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:52 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 02:49 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  So not in the timeframe Jjoey was asking about, but 4th is better than 5th...takes away my not ever.
Reynolds record is touchdowns scored - he has entered the end zone more than any other college football player in history.

Yeah agreed. Not in the original timeline, but you added "or ever" so I thought that mentioning the Moore accomplishments was fair game.

Nothing wrong with acknowledging greatness and Reynolds' personal touchdown record is impressive as hell, even for a triple-option team who runs a lot. Cheers.

Totally fair game to take the shot at my "or ever"
Moore had impressive career numbers - 50 wins as a starter is amazing

Thanks. Appreciated. I at least try to be intellectually honest in my debating. It's why you won't see me arguing the fact that the American conference has been stronger than the MWC in the last few years and that UCF has been the best G5 team over the last few years.

I will argue the points that I think that conference strength does tend to go up and down as players cycle in and out and that UCF hasn't had the sustained run that BSU has had, but I'm not going to argue the math on which conference or team has been better recently.

Right. BSU's first Fiesta was a great story - Cinderella, Statue of Liberty, proposal to the cheerleader!
And then the consistent winning has been impressive. I am proud that from 2003-2017, in fifteen years, Navy had only one losing season, and only one of the other 14 winning seasons only one was less than eight wins...and that pales in comparison to Boise's consistent winning over that time.

What I find myself railing against, though, is the idea some Boise/mwc fans come over here with, that Boise's achievements are somehow on another plane, unknowable to these schools. That's just not true. That resume doesn't drive any of us to genuflect. Some of us have history far greater, and others which have a DI history no longer than Boise's are performing at a higher level over the last couple years.
09-07-2019 06:11 PM
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