(06-25-2019 02:25 AM)Attackcoog Wrote: (06-25-2019 02:14 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote: well every P5 conference gets 2 votes (part of why they are P5) and every G5 conference gets one vote (part of why they are G5)
last time the SEC SEC SEC and AAC AAC AAC voted against the changes
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/medi...mpionships
it is well known the Big 10 put the change in for the divisional play or the full conference round robin.....some have said they would like to not change that, but Delaney is gone and who knows what the new guy thinks and I doubt they are ready to act on it
of course the AAC would be for it this time so there is 5 votes if all the other G5s vote for it......but are they all going to vote to do a "P6" member a favor.....probably not, but we will pretend they will
so you have 5 voted for
if the Big 12 decided to return the favor and vote against it there is two against.....the SEC SEC SEC will most likely be against so there is two more against and if the Big 10 has not decided what to do yet there is two against
so that is 6 against and 5 for with the PAC 12 and ACC left
the ACC will probably be for a full change, but I doubt they would be for a waiver so if it is a waiver they will vote no most likely so the vote is 8-5 and the PAC 12 vote would not matter
it was said the last time by many reports that the PAC 12 did not vote and was just "present", but later said they were for the change....but would they be for a short term waiver for just one conference
so there is a need for the Big 12 or the ACC to be for the waiver so the Big 12 has to forget the last AAC vote against any changes and the ACC has to be for one conference getting something for a period of time that the ACC was not able to get when they wanted it
but that is of course pretending that the other four G5 members vote like they did last time even though they would be doing their G5 counterpart that does all they can to thumb their noses at them a favor
so if 4 of the 5 vote no now you have 1-4 from the G5
SEC SEC SEC no so 1-6
so only one other P5 has to be against it for it to fail.....Big 10 or Big 12 or perhaps ACC (especially if just for a waiver)
better break out some G5 helmet stickers and marketing materials and try and make up ASAP might need some of those other 4 votes!
The good news is the AAC can have a CCG regardless of the waiver vote. A waiver just makes it easier. That said---Im more optimistic that the Big10, and ACC would be "yes" votes. That might change the calculus a bit.
I don't think full deregulation will be on the table right now
so from a waiver standpoint
I don't see any way it would not be 1-4 from the G5......just no way the MWC, Sunbelt, MAC and CUSA are going to allow the AAC to have their two highest ranked teams in the CCG when they know the AAC does not NEED that to have a CCG
and the SEC SEC SEC is going to vote no.....they voted no before and after how they behaved with OU making the playoffs last year there is no chance they are going to vote for any conference to be able to match their two highest ranked teams especially if that conference does not NEED to.....if they voted to allow the AAC to do it even for a brief period then the Big 10 and ACC might get ideas again.....and there is no chance the SEC SEC SEC is looking to have those conferences be able to match their two highest ranked teams especially after last year and Texas vs OU and OU getting in
so that is 6 against 1 for with the Big 12, Big 10, ACC and PAC 12
I am not sure the Big 12 holds grudges about things because their leadership is often brain dead on most things especially CCG related....BUT maybe they have woken up and the fact is the AAC does not NEED the waiver
I do not think the ACC or Big 10 (especially the ACC) would be willing to give the waiver when it is not NEEDED especially since the ACC essentially got nothing from the last deregulation and the Big 12 got everything and more
so between the Big 12 and ACC there are two conferences with strong reasons to say no
the Big 10 made the rule last time that screwed the ACC.....it has been said now they realize they were stupid to do so and screwed themselves, but they still made the rule and if they wanted to change the rule I do not see them voting to give the AAC a break (a waiver) until full deregulation can be brought up).....so again I see a high likelihood of a no
so with a 6-1 vote and three of the four P5 conferences having a strong reason to not give a waiver and the PAC 12 seemingly not caring it only takes one of the Big 12 (grudge), ACC (giving something they wanted and did not get), or Big 10 (giving something they were fully against, and might want now, but would want for themselves and not another conference only) to vote no for it to be 8-1 and the other 6 votes not mattering
I see no way the G5 (G4 how is that working out for you now
) are going to do the AAC a favor.....SEC SEC SEC no chance.....and just too many reasons for at least one of the other P5 to say no to get the needed votes especially because the AAC does not NEED the waiver it is just making things much easier on them