Quote:With the Big Ten’s media rights set to expire in 2023, major networks are gearing up to bid for some of the most sought-after packages in college sports.
NBC Sports is expected to make a major push for the Power 5 conference’s rights, sources tell Front Office Sports. The Big Ten could command fees of up to $1.1 billion annually on the open market, said sources.
NBC views the combination of the Big Ten along with its existing deal with Notre Dame football as the “perfect one-two punch,” said one source. With its $100 million-per-year deal with the NHL off the books, NBC has the cash and ambition to boost its college portfolio.
“If I’m ESPN or Fox, I’m looking over my shoulder because NBC is going to go hard after the Big Ten,” said another source.
“We don’t comment on specific strategies of our company, but we’re always interested in high-quality sports with wide appeal,” an NBC Sports spokesperson told FOS.
The Big Ten is currently in an exclusive negotiating period with ESPN, Sports Business Journal reported. CBS, which will lose SEC football rights after the 2023-24 season, will reportedly also be particularly interested.
This got me to thinking: if NBC (which is really Comcast, through Peacock) is willing to spend that much money to get the Big Ten, what's to say that they wouldn't also try to get the PAC at a relative bargain price, inching out Fox and ESPN?
Imagine you get the Northeast, Midwest, Rockies and West Coast with a few moves. That's no longer a one-two punch but a one-two-three-four punch. Could that be the way to merging ND-B1G-PAC?
Quote:If you are Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA, would you lob a call to the Big Ten or SEC for a “football only” conference? — @dsteven7
This issue has several layers, so let’s start at the 50,000-foot level and work our way down to solid ground.
The Hotline has long believed major college football will eventually bifurcate into two divisions:
— An upper tier of 30 or 35 schools that are willing to make the economic commitment and academic sacrifice to join what would essentially be a mini-NFL (with players as employees).
— The remaining 80-90 schools that prefer a more traditional model.
The upper division would be SEC-heavy, of course, and probably would include a few Pac-12 programs. But that is clearly eight or 10 years away, at least.
Were the four schools you referenced interested in reaching out to the Big Ten or SEC, their only near-term option would be to join those leagues as football-only members — not in a broader alignment within the FBS.
Moving to the 40,000-foot level, we have a timing issue:
The SEC has media rights contracts and membership locked in place, with Texas and Oklahoma set to join in 2025. Meanwhile, the Big Ten is wrapping up its media deals right now — deals that depend on knowing the makeup of the conference.
Could something materialize in the next 12-18 months that sets the West Coast quartet on course to leave the Pac-12? Sure. But we are fairly confident that any current chatter is mere speculation.
And keep this in mind: It all starts with USC.
The Bruins aren’t going anywhere without the Trojans — and maybe not even with the Trojans — and the Pacific Northwest schools have little value to the Big Ten or SEC as stand-alone entities.
If you’re the SEC or Big Ten, an expansion to the West Coast only makes economic and competitive sense if the Southern California media market is included in the deal. That means USC.
At the same time, the Pac-12 with USC is a vastly better fit for the Ducks and Huskies than the Big Ten or SEC without USC.
Were those schools to become disconnected from California, the repercussions would be damaging on multiple fronts, not the least of which is the academic affiliation with Stanford, Cal, UCLA and USC.
Closer to ground level, let’s address a practical challenge for all four schools in their pursuit of membership in the SEC or Big Ten: the Olympic sports.
It’s not realistic for their soccer, tennis and softball teams (to name three) to schlep across the country for competition.
That said, if the quartet joined the Big Ten or SEC as football-only members, would their Olympic sports remain in the Pac-12? Would they get booted out? Would there even be a Pac-12?
At that point, the conference probably collapses …
— The Arizona and Mountain schools would beg for membership in the Big 12.
— The Bay Area schools might give up major college football.
— Oregon State and Washington State would seek a landing spot within the FBS, with the Mountain West likely atop their wish list.
Now, to be absolutely clear: We don’t view this scenario as a realistic outcome in any way, shape or form … at least not for another eight or 10 years.
