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Since we're getting closer, it's worth looking at who goes to Detroit and how.

WMU:
We control on our own destiny. A loss to NIU is essentially fatal.

Two losses: If we lose to either Ohio and Ball State, we need both NIU and Toledo to lose one more game. They still play each other, and we want probably want NIU to win, because they might lose to Miami (or even Akron with that anemic offense). Toledo has an easier schedule, but might stink it up again.

Three losses: If we lose to Ohio and Ball State, we could still go. NIU would have to lose to Toledo and Miami. Toledo would need to crap the bed against two of Ball St., Kent St., or CMU. Not impossible, but improbable.

NIU:
In control, but a tough needle to thread. If they lose to us, they have to win every other game.

Toledo:
If they can beat NIU, they might go undefeated, but they are on the outside looking in. They need NIU to lose to us or Miami (or Akron).

East:
Buffalo has a tough schedule, they still have to beat Miami and win an away game against Ohio.

Miami controls their own destiny, but has a tough schedule, with NIU, Buffalo, and Ohio all still to play.

Ohio controls their own destiny, but also has a tough schedule, they have to go through us and then have Buffalo and Miami.

Akron is essentially out of the picture. They need to win out, and Buffalo to lose three games and Miami to lose too, which is doable, but very unlikely.

There's a lot of meaningful November MACtion games to play in half-empty stadiums! One unexpected loss throws everything into chaos!

I prefer the scenario in which we win out.

If Lester goes 6-6 again, it will confirm all my worries about the program. His path is right in front of him, he has no excuses this year. I think we can still pull out 8 wins.

(10-29-2018 01:23 PM)Fthechips Wrote:  If Lester goes 6-6 again, it will confirm all my worries about the program. His path is right in front of him, he has no excuses this year. I think we can still pull out 8 wins.

Yeah, 6 wins is not happening. That'd be a complete failure.

(10-29-2018 11:56 AM)RunningGame Wrote:  Since we're getting closer, it's worth looking at who goes to Detroit and how.

WMU:
We control on our own destiny. A loss to NIU is essentially fatal.

Two losses: If we lose to either Ohio and Ball State, we need both NIU and Toledo to lose one more game. They still play each other, and we want probably want NIU to win, because they might lose to Miami (or even Akron with that anemic offense). Toledo has an easier schedule, but might stink it up again.

Three losses: If we lose to Ohio and Ball State, we could still go. NIU would have to lose to Toledo and Miami. Toledo would need to crap the bed against two of Ball St., Kent St., or CMU. Not impossible, but improbable.

NIU:
In control, but a tough needle to thread. If they lose to us, they have to win every other game.

Toledo:
If they can beat NIU, they might go undefeated, but they are on the outside looking in. They need NIU to lose to us or Miami (or Akron).

East:
Buffalo has a tough schedule, they still have to beat Miami and win an away game against Ohio.

Miami controls their own destiny, but has a tough schedule, with NIU, Buffalo, and Ohio all still to play.

Ohio controls their own destiny, but also has a tough schedule, they have to go through us and then have Buffalo and Miami.

Akron is essentially out of the picture. They need to win out, and Buffalo to lose three games and Miami to lose too, which is doable, but very unlikely.

There's a lot of meaningful November MACtion games to play in half-empty stadiums! One unexpected loss throws everything into chaos!

Helpful post.

Thank you!

Unless out defense "finds Jesus" and makes a reformation, none of our remaining games will be anything but shootout wins. And we will have to do that with either a sore footed QB, or a true freshman. My suspicion is that we will be underdogs against NIU, and Thursdays game against Ohio, at home, is just barely over a "pick-em". I actually thought we would be an underdog.

I am hoping that the Toledo game was an anomaly, and I actually think it may have been. The short week applied to both teams, but I thought Toledo started a bit lethargic too, but woke up with the good start. I hope our D will be more energized from this point forward. We need to be, or this will be a very lousy finish to a potentially good season. Ford Field is within our grasp.

(10-29-2018 02:31 PM)brovol Wrote:  Unless out defense "finds Jesus" and makes a reformation, none of our remaining games will be anything but shootout wins. And we will have to do that with either a sore footed QB, or a true freshman. My suspicion is that we will be underdogs against NIU, and Thursdays game against Ohio, at home, is just barely over a "pick-em". I actually thought we would be an underdog.

I am hoping that the Toledo game was an anomaly, and I actually think it may have been. The short week applied to both teams, but I thought Toledo started a bit lethargic too, but woke up with the good start. I hope our D will be more energized from this point forward. We need to be, or this will be a very lousy finish to a potentially good season. Ford Field is within our grasp.

I think the beginning of that third quarter killed our confidence. I felt good going into halftime. Ohio's offense isn't as good as Toledo's.

FYI, Wassink is out indefinitely, Lester hinted today that the earliest he would be back would be December, but probably later. Not finished evaluating yet.

So, our MAC Championship run is on Eleby's shoulders! Good thing he's a gamer from what we've seen and heard. I can get used to a hearing a lot of "Eleby to Reed"!

(10-29-2018 02:31 PM)brovol Wrote:  Unless out defense "finds Jesus" and makes a reformation, none of our remaining games will be anything but shootout wins. And we will have to do that with either a sore footed QB, or a true freshman. My suspicion is that we will be underdogs against NIU, and Thursdays game against Ohio, at home, is just barely over a "pick-em". I actually thought we would be an underdog.

I am hoping that the Toledo game was an anomaly, and I actually think it may have been. The short week applied to both teams, but I thought Toledo started a bit lethargic too, but woke up with the good start. I hope our D will be more energized from this point forward. We need to be, or this will be a very lousy finish to a potentially good season. Ford Field is within our grasp.

I saw that, and wondered how we weren't an underdog.

Ohio has scored 30+ points in 6 of their 8 games this season, including in games at (6-2) Virginia and at (7-1) Cincy.

They also only beat FCS howard by 6, and Kent State by 1. I think they're looked at as being pretty inconsistent.

If I was in Vegas I'd be really tempted to put some on Ohio. Be hard to bet against us though.

(10-29-2018 01:30 PM)Bronc33 Wrote:  

(10-29-2018 01:23 PM)Fthechips Wrote:  If Lester goes 6-6 again, it will confirm all my worries about the program. His path is right in front of him, he has no excuses this year. I think we can still pull out 8 wins.

Yeah, 6 wins is not happening. That'd be a complete failure.

I could def see us not winning another game. Ohio and NIU are probably a bit better than us and Ball St on the road is no gimme. Back to mediocrity we go, nice work Kathy

WMU is one of the youngest teams in the country. In addition, most teams have a letdown game each year. It is possible that Toledo was that game for WMU. The Ohio game will be telling.

Also, does anyone else think that Buffalo is the favorite to win the MAC at this point?

(10-29-2018 04:39 PM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  WMU is one of the youngest teams in the country.

Source?

(10-29-2018 08:44 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  

(10-29-2018 04:39 PM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  WMU is one of the youngest teams in the country.

Source?

Info came during the Ball State / ND game. Ball State was one of the top 10 youngest teams as well. Maybe 3rd quarter when the chart appeared during the game. I'll see if I can find it later.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using CSNbbs mobile app

Just win baby.

I wonder if that was youngest overall or in the two deep. A good sign either way but definitely different in terms of context for this year.

Quote:If Lester goes 6-6 again, it will confirm all my worries about the program. His path is right in front of him, he has no excuses this year. I think we can still pull out 8 wins.

I see us going 7-5. I think Kaleb will do OK and be inconsistent but make some good throws, getting into the thick of things. But not enough to counteract our D if continues to play poor.

I think we can potentially win any of our remaining games, but I would put @BSU as our strongest potential. The other two, I put us as underdogs as far as expectations go, head to head, but not by a whole lot. I expect us to win 1 game, lose a close one, and solidly lose another. Of course, we could realistically win 2 out of the 3, as our D CAN play at least better than that Toledo game (but Merely that won't get us 2W), and you don't know how the other teams are going to perform thru-and-thru on that day.

Expecting to win the next 3, IMO, would be as much of a stretch as us losing the next 3. If I were in Vegas right now and I could bet on a final record, winning 100% or more on the bet, I'd definitely pick 7-5.

(10-30-2018 04:12 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:If Lester goes 6-6 again, it will confirm all my worries about the program. His path is right in front of him, he has no excuses this year. I think we can still pull out 8 wins.

I see us going 7-5. I think Kaleb will do OK and be inconsistent but make some good throws, getting into the thick of things. But not enough to counteract our D if continues to play poor.

I think we can potentially win any of our remaining games, but I would put @BSU as our strongest potential. The other two, I put us as underdogs as far as expectations go, head to head, but not by a whole lot. I expect us to win 1 game, lose a close one, and solidly lose another. Of course, we could realistically win 2 out of the 3, as our D CAN play at least better than that Toledo game (but Merely that won't get us 2W), and you don't know how the other teams are going to perform thru-and-thru on that day.

Expecting to win the next 3, IMO, would be as much of a stretch as us losing the next 3. If I were in Vegas right now and I could bet on a final record, winning 100% or more on the bet, I'd definitely pick 7-5.

Agreed. 7-5 is my prediction, 8-4 would be a great outcome given the QB issue.

Our defense needs to step up about three full notches in order to rise to the level of slightly below average. That would give our offense the chance to keep us in these games. We need to probably play with four downs anytime we are inside the 50. Our punting is almost as bad as our D. The Ohio game will tell us what we will have coming in.

(10-29-2018 11:56 AM)RunningGame Wrote:  There's a lot of meaningful November MACtion games to play in half-empty stadiums!

"half-empty stadiums" would signal a rise in attendance over previous November weekdays.