https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status...1528658945

THIS IS AN OUTRAGE

The polls are always off. It's by design.

what is there to be outraged over? The guy is a statistician. He says the Democrats odds of taking the House is about 75%, giving room for the possibility of polling error. He's not a pollster.

(10-25-2018 04:05 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  what is there to be outraged over? The guy is a statistician. He says the Democrats odds of taking the House is about 75%, giving room for the possibility of polling error. He's not a pollster.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status...7246303233

he's a forecaster ...
sorta like the weatherman ...
paid a pretty penny to get it right ...

THE MAN, THE MYTH, THE LEGEND

Nate was saying in an article yesterday the Republicans had no chance.

He's not even a true statistician. He's a Democrat who knows no Republicans and picked something right once.

What professional would write, "I don't mean to scare anyone, but there is a 30% chance Donald Trump wins?" (or somewhere around 30%). He's written other things that make it clear he is anything but objective.

Nate Silver is a liberal hack who's junk the left swallows when theres a small republican turnout and democrats win. He looks like a complete idiot when republicans show up to the polls.

You can always fall back on the conservative prognosticators who will surely provide you with the information you'd prefer to hear.

(10-25-2018 04:50 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  You can always fall back on the conservative prognosticators who will surely provide you with the information you'd prefer to hear.

Don't know that they're conservative, but the folks at RealClearPolitics I usually trust. They're saying this thing (the battle for the House) is much closer than most pollsters have it. Pubs will add seats in the Senate according to them.

What say you Mensa?

Dems always underperform v. polls in mid-terms. GOP turnout is much heavier than usual in early voting. Blue wave, maybe not.

(10-25-2018 04:50 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  You can always fall back on the conservative prognosticators who will surely provide you with the information you'd prefer to hear.

Or you can listen to polls that use a pool of respondents where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1. In a shocker, this methodology showed Hillary winning in a 2016 landslide. lol. fake news...fake polls....do I detect a trend?

(10-25-2018 05:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-25-2018 04:50 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  You can always fall back on the conservative prognosticators who will surely provide you with the information you'd prefer to hear.

Or you can listen to polls that use a pool of respondents where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1. In a shocker, this methodology showed Hillary winning in a 2016 landslide. lol. fake news...fake polls....do I detect a trend?

If it makes you feel better Nick Pewter guarantees Republicans will maintain control of the House. Polls show 100% certainty.

I was looking at RCP on Florida which has the Senate as a toss-up. No toss-ups it had it to Scott ® last week and Nelson (D) this week with some polls showing Nelson up 4-8 points. So I looked at the history. The polls in this race almost all ways stay the same. The ones showing Nelson up 4-8 have consistently shown that. The ones showing ties or Scott up a couple points have consistently shown that. There doesn't seem to have been much movement in this race. The only changes are which polls are most recent.

I'm guessing Florida is very tight as usual.

(10-25-2018 06:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  I was looking at RCP on Florida which has the Senate as a toss-up. No toss-ups it had it to Scott ® last week and Nelson (D) this week with some polls showing Nelson up 4-8 points. So I looked at the history. The polls in this race almost all ways stay the same. The ones showing Nelson up 4-8 have consistently shown that. The ones showing ties or Scott up a couple points have consistently shown that. There doesn't seem to have been much movement in this race. The only changes are which polls are most recent.

I'm guessing Florida is very tight as usual.

The Florida primary polls were horrible. They didnt even have Gillum winning.

(10-25-2018 04:19 PM)green Wrote:  

(10-25-2018 04:05 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  what is there to be outraged over? The guy is a statistician. He says the Democrats odds of taking the House is about 75%, giving room for the possibility of polling error. He's not a pollster.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status...7246303233

he's a forecaster ...
sorta like the weatherman ...
paid a pretty penny to get it right ...

THE MAN, THE MYTH, THE LEGEND

Oh, you mean he's an economist. Gotcha.