I just saw some of the aac lines and these lines are absurb and no way they cover

for those not familiar (-14 next you your name means you are favored to win by 14)

PRO-aac

Boise -33 vs UConn (UConn covers)
If you only looked at the scores, this would seem like a decent line, boise OBLITERATED a supposedly good troy...uconn lost by 40 to ucf

but with even the slightest research this line ABSURD...

-Boise didn't beat anyone by 33 last season, they did vs troy but boise had had 3 turover tds (all of which could be classified as lucky, they werent pick 6 type turnovers, more like right bounce right place)

-boise also isnt a blazing uptempo team, they actually prefer to run. they take their deep shots now and then, and in this game vs troy they just connected on all of them..but its not constant shots

-on the other side, the ucf/uconn margin had a lot to do with the fact ucf was running an offense faster than anything i have ever seen.. ucf was purposely trying to score under a minute every drive

- uconn was also actually moving the ball vs a respectable ucf defense.. their qb looked decent (500yds of total offense) ...uconn will take some time of possession and will score atleast 1 or 2 tds

uconn will take time of possession, Boise will take time of possession....im sorry i just do see a 5 td differential..33 is absurd...i can see 21 but not 33

Texas -22.5 vs Tulsa (History says tulsa covers)
texas offense is struggling, their defense was gashed by maryland...i just dont see a 3td and fg goal...

yes tulsa struggled badly vs a fcs, but that fcs is elite. the type of fcs that should be able to compete with a fbs...

texas only beat 1 fbs by more than 22 last season..tulsa rarely gets blownout, even when bad..in the last 4 years tulsa hasnt lost to a team by more than 21 who isnt top 25

Cincinnati vs Miami oh (-2.5) (Cincy should be the favorite)
- so there is a general notion that ucla is just horrific and UC isnt good..miami oh just lost to marshall..miami was 5-7 last year, uc beat them last year, and its a UC home game (with a likely hyped fanbase from beating ucla).

not sure why miami oh is favored...i get not overreacting over the ucla win, the line should be close, but it should be on the UC side

con-aac

SMU vs #16 TCU -22 (TCU will obliterate)

- unt offense is legit, so getting torched by their offense isnt an issue....but unt's defense ISNT good. smu had negative yards through 3 quarters, tcu has a great defense.. i have no clue how they will score, none

if tcu is not overrated this will be a destruction....the only way it stays within 22 is lot and lots of garbage points

Tempting

ECU vs UNC -16.5 (a battle of 2 bad teams)

- UNC isnt good at all...they only has 3 points vs cal through 3.5 quarters (cal doesnt have a good defense)
- UNC has NO faith in its qb..NONE...unc made it a 14 point game vs cal with 5 mins left...they needed 2 scores (you have to score quickly to have any kind of shot), they ran the ball

-North Carolina A&T also hasnt lost a game in over 2 years (though they do play in weaker fcs conference)
ecu is bad, but maybe not THAT bad that theyd get blown out by a bad unc..
it's a tempting pick.

If you are dumb enough to even consider betting on ECU then you deserve to lose your money.

I'd take Cincy, Boise, TCU and leave the ECU and Tulsa games alone.

I took UNC to cover, but admittedly I don't feel like it's a sure thing. They suck and have a ton of guys suspended. Under any normal circumstances for an ECU team I'd take us to cover that by a mile and maybe even win outright, but the sky has fallen. Now maybe they'll bounce back in the same way that a body probably bounces after you jump off a building and hit the pavement, but the program itself is dead until Mo is fired.

(09-04-2018 11:15 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  If you are dumb enough to even consider betting on ECU then you deserve to lose your money.

you arent betting on them to win...you are betting on them to cover......

cals defense is bad, unc only scored 17, 14 of which was in the last 6 minutes with multiple 4th down attempts...

it is tempting as in, im not sure unc can score enough to to cover the differential...and ecu offense is turnover prone but you can move the ball...ecu will score alteast something.....unc will likely need 35+ to cover

(09-04-2018 11:17 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I'd take Cincy, Boise, TCU and leave the ECU and Tulsa games alone.

that boise line is absurb...there is NO way they cover (without tons of lucky turnovers)....none....

(09-04-2018 11:24 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 11:17 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I'd take Cincy, Boise, TCU and leave the ECU and Tulsa games alone.

that boise line is absurb...there is NO way they cover (without tons of lucky turnovers)....none....

teams worse than Boise will beat UCONN by more than 33 at home this season.

(09-04-2018 11:29 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 11:24 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 11:17 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I'd take Cincy, Boise, TCU and leave the ECU and Tulsa games alone.

that boise line is absurb...there is NO way they cover (without tons of lucky turnovers)....none....

teams worse than Boise will beat UCONN by more than 33 at home this season.

you dont pick spreads simply by better or worse...id beat money on Oklahoma covering a spread more before clemson

clemson will win alot of low scoring games based on their defense (lower chance to cover)..Oklahoma offense will put 50 on anyone

and that brings me to my point (im certain you didnt read the OP)..boise isnt a blazing uptempo offense...uconn can move the ball aswell..both teams take up time of possession ..there isnt enough game time to get up 33...
the only reason they got up 33 on troy was because Boise had 3 turnover tds

I did read your OP. I just disagree with you. You seem to be taking this whole thing way to seriously. Perhaps you should get another hobby that doesnt stress you out so much.

(09-04-2018 11:46 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I did read your OP. I just disagree with you. You seem to be taking this whole thing way to seriously. Perhaps you should get another hobby that doesnt stress you out so much.

lmao , not sure why you are reading stressed or taking seriously....but thank you the concern, not sure why i would be stressed about lines..

likes talking sports =/= being stressed about talking sports

but back to point, its been close to 3 years since boise beat a team by 33..if you arent counting troy..they play in a weak mwc

With respects to the UC/Miami game, I'm guessing the odds makers see the game as a toss-up, but give Miami U. the 3 points for being the "home team". The problem is they don't understand from afar that it really is a home game for UC, as Paul Brown Stadium is 3 miles from campus (compared to 35 miles from Oxford) and the Bearcats will have substantially more fans at the game.

(09-04-2018 11:51 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 11:46 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I did read your OP. I just disagree with you. You seem to be taking this whole thing way to seriously. Perhaps you should get another hobby that doesnt stress you out so much.

lmao , not sure why you are reading stressed or taking seriously....but thank you the concern, not sure why i would be stressed about lines..

likes talking sports =/= being stressed about talking sports

but back to point, its been close to 3 years since boise beat a team by 33..if you arent counting troy..they play in a weak mwc

Other than THREE DAYS AGO, they did it twice in '16 and thrice in '15, FCS, mwc, other G4s, and P5 included in those 6 instances.
You're right, not in '17 (best wins were a pair of 27-point margins, in conference)...and everyone's point with ranking Boise high was that they were returning a ton and expected to improve on '17.

(09-04-2018 11:51 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 11:46 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I did read your OP. I just disagree with you. You seem to be taking this whole thing way to seriously. Perhaps you should get another hobby that doesnt stress you out so much.

lmao , not sure why you are reading stressed or taking seriously....but thank you the concern, not sure why i would be stressed about lines..

likes talking sports =/= being stressed about talking sports

but back to point, its been close to 3 years since boise beat a team by 33..if you arent counting troy..they play in a weak mwc

lol. So Boise St hasnt beaten any teams by 33......



















......except for the team they dogstomped on the road 48 hours ago. SMH.



And by the way, they also beat UL-Lafayette and Hawaii in 2016 and Idaho St, UVA, Hawaii and Northern Illinois in 2015 all by more than 33 points.

That's 7 wins by more than 33 points in the last 3seasons(and 1 game).

(09-04-2018 11:57 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  With respects to the UC/Miami game, I'm guessing the odds makers see the game as a toss-up, but give Miami U. the 3 points for being the "home team". The problem is they don't understand from afar that it really is a home game for UC, as Paul Brown Stadium is 3 miles from campus (compared to 35 miles from Oxford) and the Bearcats will have substantially more fans at the game.

sports gambling is a multibillion dollar industry. oddsmakers are well aware as to the location of the game

(09-04-2018 12:00 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 11:51 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 11:46 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I did read your OP. I just disagree with you. You seem to be taking this whole thing way to seriously. Perhaps you should get another hobby that doesnt stress you out so much.

lmao , not sure why you are reading stressed or taking seriously....but thank you the concern, not sure why i would be stressed about lines..

likes talking sports =/= being stressed about talking sports

but back to point, its been close to 3 years since boise beat a team by 33..if you arent counting troy..they play in a weak mwc

Other than THREE DAYS AGO, they did it twice in '16 and thrice in '15, FCS, mwc, other G4s, and P5 included in those 6 instances.
You're right, not in '17 (best wins were a pair of 27-point margins, in conference)...and everyone's point with ranking Boise high was that they were returning a ton and expected to improve on '17.

first i wasnt counting 15, also i get that they were supposed to improve...we'll see i guess..
like i said in the OP, id have taken boise -21, not 33......and note the turnover tds versus troy as a reason for the gap

uconn can definitely move the ball, they will score something. imo atleast 14...and uconn also had numerous 4mins drives including many they didnt score on.(TOP)

if i felt uconn was flat inept at offense id be more inclined to take the 33 but they arent

boise also isnt an race to score and does it systematically..on regular size fields, they normally take 3 game mins to score ..turnovers are the ONLY way i see anything close to 33

(09-04-2018 12:01 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  That's 7 wins by more than 33 points in the last 3seasons(and 1 game).

3 years not 3 season.... i wasnt counting the 2015 season...and didnt notice hawaii and lala in 16..

and you keep missing the point boise got up that big on troy becuase of turnover luck..

Pesik is a different breed

(09-04-2018 12:17 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 12:01 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  That's 7 wins by more than 33 points in the last 3seasons(and 1 game).

3 years not 3 season.... i wasnt counting the 2015 season...and didnt notice hawaii and lala in 16..

and you keep missing the point boise got up that big on troy becuase of turnover luck..

OK so you are counting 3 calendar years? SMH. the 2015 season would be inside 3 calendar years.

I havent had a conversation this stupid in years.

(09-04-2018 12:48 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 12:17 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 12:01 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  That's 7 wins by more than 33 points in the last 3seasons(and 1 game).

3 years not 3 season.... i wasnt counting the 2015 season...and didnt notice hawaii and lala in 16..

and you keep missing the point boise got up that big on troy becuase of turnover luck..

OK so you are counting 3 calendar years? SMH. the 2015 season would be inside 3 calendar years.

I havent had a conversation this stupid in years.

16-17-18...not sure why you are making this more complicated than it needed to be ..
nitpicking details doesn't change the point..15 still technically being in the calender year proves what?

That Cincinnati line is about right...they saw the same game we did, where we couldn't move the ball at all on the 4th youngest team in FBS and relied on our defense to get us out of binds. We are uncertain at QB, have a running back who was injured during the game and another who didn't play, and are coming off a high. Sure Miami lost, but they scored points, Gus Raglund is a solid QB and they probably should've beaten us last year and the year before. Streaks like this don't happen very often in modern rivalry games, so they probably figure this is the year to do it.

Do I think Cincinnati will cover/win straight up...absolutely, but I understand where that line is coming from.