Green said he’ll have several 100 family and friends at the Ole Miss game. Ole Miss also offered him as a graduate transfer, as did several other schools. Luckily he loves being a Warhawk and will show them what they missed out on.

Texas State and ULM have the best chance, based on their opponent alone. ULM, if they come out hot on offense, could catch Ole Miss on their heels. Would likely need to be a 49-45 type game for them to win, but I think their offense has that capability.

Rutgers is just bad; they likely would finish no better than 5th or 6th in the Sun Belt.

I also believe that Arkansas State, if Blake doesn't mess around, could keep the game against Alabama respectable in the first half. They have the players, but Blake's gameplanning for unfamiliar opponents is suspect, at best.

Coastal is an enigma, at this point, as well. With Moglia back they could keep the USC game close. Haven't paid much attention to USC since Muschamp took over, however.

(08-06-2018 05:29 PM)balanced_view Wrote:  there might be some money to be made on that Louisiana vs Miss State game.

Mississippi State has 27 seniors and a dynamic quarterback. They are expected to have one of their best teams in the last 20 years.

(08-07-2018 10:12 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  Texas State and ULM have the best chance, based on their opponent alone. ULM, if they come out hot on offense, could catch Ole Miss on their heels. Would likely need to be a 49-45 type game for them to win, but I think their offense has that capability.

Rutgers is just bad; they likely would finish no better than 5th or 6th in the Sun Belt.

I agree. If we beat Ole Miss it will
Be a shootout. I think it could happen though. We will score points on everybod, including A&M.

(08-06-2018 05:37 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  I say double our chances against Rutgers, and I think it'd be more in line.

I know, that's not saying a tremendous amount, but I do think we'll present ourselves well against Rutgers, and with a few positive bounces, can sneak out a win.

Rutgers is garbage and stealing P5 money. TXST is down but it should be higher than what it is.

(08-06-2018 03:23 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Sorted by chances of winning in ESPN FPI. That gives the chance of going winless at about 60%.

Once again it seems we have the hardest batch of Power 5 games of all the G5 leagues.

Troy @ Nebraska 12.9%
ULM @ Ole Miss 9.4%
Texas State @ Rutgers 5.9%
ULM@ Texas A&M 4.5%
Georgia State @ NC State 3.2%
App State @ Penn State 2.9%
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina 2.1%
Ark State @ Alabama 1.8%
South Alabama @ Oklahoma State 1.4%
Georgia Southern @ Clemson 1%
UL @ Miss State 0.9%
UL @ Alabama 0.3%

The first five are way too low but the rest are probably right. Dont see a lot of W's but one out of the top five might pull it off.

(08-06-2018 03:23 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Troy @ Nebraska 12.9%
ULM @ Ole Miss 9.4%
Texas State @ Rutgers 5.9%
ULM@ Texas A&M 4.5%
Georgia State @ NC State 3.2%
App State @ Penn State 2.9%
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina 2.1%
Ark State @ Alabama 1.8%
South Alabama @ Oklahoma State 1.4%
Georgia Southern @ Clemson 1%
UL @ Miss State 0.9%
UL @ Alabama 0.3%

What then, is the probability that at least one of these occurs? Can one of you stats guys figure this out?

I found this, but I don't have the time to do the math right now: https://math.stackexchange.com/questions...-occurring

(08-07-2018 01:59 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 03:23 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Troy @ Nebraska 12.9%
ULM @ Ole Miss 9.4%
Texas State @ Rutgers 5.9%
ULM@ Texas A&M 4.5%
Georgia State @ NC State 3.2%
App State @ Penn State 2.9%
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina 2.1%
Ark State @ Alabama 1.8%
South Alabama @ Oklahoma State 1.4%
Georgia Southern @ Clemson 1%
UL @ Miss State 0.9%
UL @ Alabama 0.3%

What then, is the probability that at least one of these occurs? Can one of you stats guys figure this out?

I found this, but I don't have the time to do the math right now: https://math.stackexchange.com/questions...-occurring

Chance of no wins: 60%
Chance of at least 1: 40%
Chance of 2 or more wins: about 8%

(08-07-2018 02:10 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 01:59 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 03:23 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Troy @ Nebraska 12.9%
ULM @ Ole Miss 9.4%
Texas State @ Rutgers 5.9%
ULM@ Texas A&M 4.5%
Georgia State @ NC State 3.2%
App State @ Penn State 2.9%
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina 2.1%
Ark State @ Alabama 1.8%
South Alabama @ Oklahoma State 1.4%
Georgia Southern @ Clemson 1%
UL @ Miss State 0.9%
UL @ Alabama 0.3%

What then, is the probability that at least one of these occurs? Can one of you stats guys figure this out?

I found this, but I don't have the time to do the math right now: https://math.stackexchange.com/questions...-occurring

Chance of no wins: 60%
Chance of at least 1: 40%
Chance of 2 or more wins: about 8%

I came up with 38% chance for at least 1. Didn't do the rest. I assume you were rounding.

Tough odds.

38.19707399883491% of 1 win.

(08-07-2018 02:42 PM)_x_ Wrote:  38.19707399883491% of 1 win.

Same.

I got 38.197073999% after google rounded. Used the 1 - (nP * nP * ... nP) method.