The unofficial online home for fans of the Western Michigan University Broncos. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

ESPN FPI loves them some 2018 WMU:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto.../undefined

"If we were asking FPI for its best bet for season win totals, the Broncos' over would be it.

One reason for the large differential: wins below expectation. At the end of each season, FPI has a pretty good sense of exactly how good each team is, given that squad's performance on offense, defense and special teams throughout the season and given which teams those performances came against. When we look back at Western Michigan's 2017 season, FPI thinks the Broncos actually won 1.1 fewer games than they ought to have.

That might not sound like a lot, but the public outlook for the Broncos surely would at least be a little different if they had won seven games last year, not six.

Another reason to like Western Michigan is that FPI is passing judgment on last year's team without knowing that quarterback Jon Wassink, who quietly ranked 21st in Total QBR, missed the team's final four games with a collarbone injury. Western Michigan lost three of those final four contests.

Keep in mind that not only is South Point's win total for the Broncos 5.5, but the vig is shaded toward the under, giving FPI even greater conviction in the over."

Interesting that, in the same article, ESPN FPI is very down on 2018 Toledo...

(06-04-2018 11:23 AM)The Colonel Wrote:  ESPN FPI loves them some 2018 WMU:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto.../undefined

"If we were asking FPI for its best bet for season win totals, the Broncos' over would be it.

One reason for the large differential: wins below expectation. At the end of each season, FPI has a pretty good sense of exactly how good each team is, given that squad's performance on offense, defense and special teams throughout the season and given which teams those performances came against. When we look back at Western Michigan's 2017 season, FPI thinks the Broncos actually won 1.1 fewer games than they ought to have.

That might not sound like a lot, but the public outlook for the Broncos surely would at least be a little different if they had won seven games last year, not six.

Another reason to like Western Michigan is that FPI is passing judgment on last year's team without knowing that quarterback Jon Wassink, who quietly ranked 21st in Total QBR, missed the team's final four games with a collarbone injury. Western Michigan lost three of those final four contests.

Keep in mind that not only is South Point's win total for the Broncos 5.5, but the vig is shaded toward the under, giving FPI even greater conviction in the over."

Interesting that, in the same article, ESPN FPI is very down on 2018 Toledo...

Especially when he says Toledo only returns 11 starters. Obviously he only looked at the depth chart going into the MAC Championship. A number of starters were out for the season that will be returning for 2018. Real number of returning will be more like 16. Grad Transfer, former FSU OT Brock Ruble(13 starts) will move into LT. Still waiting to hear if RB Bryant Koback will able to play this season, based on a hardship appeal to NCAA. Guadagni or Peters at QB, is Toledo's big question. The Rocket's Receiving group is nationally ranked #3 by Lindy's and #8 Athlon. If UT is going to air it out Peters is the guy. Running the FB with a quick passing game likely Guadagni. Early on they will both get their shots. Both are talented.The ESPN article says UT hasn't recruited to fill its losses.
An Athlon quote reads:
"How they replace Woodside will determine if they can win another conference championship. They have the most raw talent in the league."
-An opposing MAC assistant coach

Toledo has lots of talent but huge question mark at QB. The most important position on the field. Losses on the O-line and defensive front 7 will also hurt, but are more easily replaced by the talent on the roster.

This will be an interesting season. CMU, NIU and EMU all have question marks at QB as well.

I had heard at one point the whole FPI thing is really a joke when it comes to predictions. Granted, that is without conducting an independent study myself. Regardless, I feel most of the mainstream media chat about MAC schools is ridiculous anyways. We'd be better off having representatives from each of our respective boards write a piece on how we expect the team to be.

(06-07-2018 03:06 PM)SylRocketFan Wrote:  I had heard at one point the whole FPI thing is really a joke when it comes to predictions. Granted, that is without conducting an independent study myself. Regardless, I feel most of the mainstream media chat about MAC schools is ridiculous anyways. We'd be better off having representatives from each of our respective boards write a piece on how we expect the team to be.

I find it to be a good relative indicator of a team's strength, as much as Vegas betting, but stats are stats and football is football come gameday!

Where I find FPI is actually fascinating is when they predict chances to win a game during a game. It gives you a good relative idea on how important parts of a game are, like a turnover at a certain point or when a lead is more important. Of course, it has no real bearing on the gameplay, just odds.

Toledo could be the 2017 WMU team. Big hopes but short roster does them in by mid season

(06-11-2018 10:24 AM)BuickBronco Wrote:  Toledo could be the 2017 WMU team. Big hopes but short roster does them in by mid season

Toledo will have more depth due to players returning from season ending injuries, Gray/Redshirting, transfers and JUCOs. Stronger OL and Defensive front 7. Picked up some team speed. Toledo hasn't experienced a lot of attrition from recent recruiting classes.

(06-11-2018 10:53 AM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(06-11-2018 10:24 AM)BuickBronco Wrote:  Toledo could be the 2017 WMU team. Big hopes but short roster does them in by mid season

Toledo will have more depth due to players returning from season ending injuries, Gray/Redshirting, transfers and JUCOs. Stronger OL and Defensive front 7. Picked up some team speed. Toledo hasn't experienced a lot of attrition from recent recruiting classes.

All for naught if QB doesn't pan out. Without Woodside last year they aren't MAC champs

(06-12-2018 09:19 AM)BuickBronco Wrote:  

(06-11-2018 10:53 AM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(06-11-2018 10:24 AM)BuickBronco Wrote:  Toledo could be the 2017 WMU team. Big hopes but short roster does them in by mid season

Toledo will have more depth due to players returning from season ending injuries, Gray/Redshirting, transfers and JUCOs. Stronger OL and Defensive front 7. Picked up some team speed. Toledo hasn't experienced a lot of attrition from recent recruiting classes.

All for naught if QB doesn't pan out. Without Woodside last year they aren't MAC champs

True about Woodside. Last year was "a smoke and mirrors" MACC because of the injuries for Toledo. Also made it easier because of a down year for the MAC. As I posted elsewhere, the Rocket scoring offense average has varied only a few points each season since Beckman took the reins of the program through Candle's 2017 MACC. That's Opelt, Dantin, Owens, Ely, and Woodside as starters. Last season was only the 3rd best Rockets' scoring offense average in the last 5 seasons. A huge drop-off in points scored this season for UT isn't going to happen. The worst scenario for
for UT is QB#1 and#2 are injured, the #3 QB is the son of a former NFL HC/DC who was an Elite 11 Finalist becomes the starter. Not really worried about his skills or FB IQ. Certainly a better situation than most MAC teams are in.