FloridaJag
All American
Posts: 3,390
Joined: Oct 2010
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I Root For: USA, FSU, and UWF
Location: Florida
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-28-2018 02:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote: (02-28-2018 01:26 PM)FloridaJag Wrote: (02-27-2018 05:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (02-27-2018 09:10 AM)cotton1991 Wrote: (02-27-2018 05:41 AM)BRtransplant Wrote: Football does indeed drive the bus. That's has always been the case. The problem facing any G5 school's aspirations of becoming a part of the P5 conferences is that there is simply nowhere to go, so what does it matter what P5 conferences "look at" now?
These days, about the most any of us can hope for is a spot one day in the AAC. Even that is questionable since it would only be possible if some of the top AAC schools had left for a decimated Big 12 after Texas, OK, OK St, and Kansas leave for the PAC 12 or the Big Ten. Would it still be worth the fees a school would incur by leaving the SBC or CUSA to join a decimated AAC? I mean, take Houston, Memphis, CINN, UCF, and USF out of the AAC and what's left? Tulsa, Tulane, SMU........bleh.
On the not worth it front, I'm also not sure it would be worth it for those AAC schools to join a depleted B12 consisting of Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Depends on the tv deal and any NY6 bowl games outside the Access Bowl, all of which would be questionable.
Depends on whats left I suppose and who the school is. Houston, SMU, Memphis, Tulsa, Tulane (western schools of the AAC) would jump in a second at a league that played those teams along with Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Kansas St, TCU, and Iowa St. Lets say 2 of the more attractive teams are eliminated (Texas Tech and Oklhoma St), thats still a more geographically coherent conference with opponent locals are more likely to be familiar with than playing east coast teams like Temple or ECU. You should end up with lower cost travel, more walkup ticket sales, and better bowls (as those old B12 schools have higher average attendance than the overall AAC).
If your far away--like UConn or UCF---maybe the decision is harder--but probably not. The fact is, you're never deciding between your current league and the leugue you are invited to in realignment. You're actually deciding between the new league your invted to vs staying in your current league MINUS everyone who decides to leave. Most of the time, its better to leave than be left behind.
The Big 12 has to add Houston and Memphis to remain viable as a P5.
I am not sure UCF and USF are automatics because of the distances for its non football sports. West Virginia will want Cincinnati.
My guess is that Big 14 would include Cinci and SMU.
Big 14 West
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
SMU
Texas
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
Big 14 East
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Memphis
West Virginia
That leaves East Carolina, Navy, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, USF, and UConn in the American. I would expect UAB and Ga State to get invites to the AAC followed by MTSU and Charlotte to get to 12 members.
Big XII needs to keep Texas and OU to remain viable as P5 and they need six others to play to remain an FBS league.
The Big 12 (8) needs more than eight teams to stay viable.
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