(02-16-2018 09:56 PM)JRsec Wrote: (02-16-2018 09:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: Being that we've been talking a lot about TCU lately, I have a thought...
The other day I theorized that a league taking TCU might actually destabilize the Big 12 in its current state. There's no way they could replace that sort of value despite the fact they wouldn't be losing OU or UT in that particular moment. Perhaps the goal would be to force OU or UT to make a decision sooner than later...
To piggyback on that, I think TCU would be an interesting move to essentially checkmate whatever inroads any other league made into the region.
What about this?
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Kansas
Let's say Texas wants something different. That's fine. Anyone else would take them, but it would essentially take adding both Texas and Texas Tech to approach the sort of market penetration we would have.
Texas A&M gives us the 2nd most popular brand in the state and good solid numbers across the board. The combo of LSU, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State gives us a host of eyeballs in the state despite none of them being in TX.
If you add TCU though then you guarantee the domination of the largest 2 media markets in the state. You also get regular games located in or very close to the 2 largest talent centers in the state. It also keeps us from having to add a 3rd TX school while giving us the freedom to move on a school like Kansas that adds some ancillary value in addition to a new state.
It makes me think that if Texas and Oklahoma don't come as a pair that perhaps our best move is to take the 4 I just mentioned. TCU should be willing to come without strings and I can't imagine they wouldn't gravitate to the security of the SEC over the familiarity of Austin. Whereas Texas probably requires Tech as a tag along and they don't really add value. But even more than that, there's the political angle. We'd never quite be sure whether or not UT is looking out for itself and itself alone. The question with UT is as always...how well do they play with others?
Unless we really feared UT heading to the Big Ten or something like that then I'm not sure we have much to lose.
Perhaps ESPN could talk the ACC into taking a combo like this...Texas, Baylor, Houston, and SMU. The travel wouldn't be too bad if you exclude Texas Tech. Notre Dame can remain a partial for the time being. Both leagues would be well off like that and wouldn't have to do very much they aren't comfortable with.
Schools like Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State, and West Virginia could anchor a new American perhaps along with BYU.
Assuming ESPN has time to wait until the GOR approaches expiration then they have more freedom to play around with the membership and won't have to worry so much about placing a certain number.
It's true that we don't need TCU to get good penetration in Texas, but technically we don't need UT either. I think it's an interesting value proposition.
Totally locking down DFW with a 2nd Texas school is not without merit. When you posit that by taking them you could destabilize OU and UT you could, but only if T.C.U. is excused from the GOR. Until then that move wouldn't be practical. After the expiration T.C.U. may or may not be needed.
That said, and while I like the concept and see a positive upside there is another rub. Oklahoma didn't like it when T.C.U. was added to the Big 12. They recruit DFW well and felt that elevating the Frogs specifically hurt them. So if they are coming to the SEC and see our brand as a huge advantage in DFW, they might strongly object to the addition of T.C.U..
But what I like about the concept is that it really cuts Texas off at the knees within their own state. Houston is already a tough sell for the Horns. Between A&M and L.S.U. Houston is an SEC town. Although Orgeron didn't press his advantage there this year and the Horns made inroads.
So if you had to the pair of Oklahoma schools and T.C.U. to go along with Arkansas and A&M DFW would definitely become an SEC town as well. That's a lot of pressure on Texas, a lot!
Part of what I like about TCU's positioning is that the very threat of adding them has to force Texas to look at things differently.
Texas is the biggest fish left, sure, but TCU being in another league along with Oklahoma and the SEC powers could pose a serious threat to their competitive ability. UT would likely move off to another league, but they would essentially be surrounded.
The addition of Kansas, I think, would represent greater value than Texas Tech so that should help in bringing up the total value of a 4 school expansion to be in the same neighborhood with a move that included Texas and Texas Tech. I'm not sure the SEC would look at it this way, but I think it helps to have a backup option in the event Texas wants to be difficult.
I think ESPN would rather move Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas together so it's possible we get help from them to make this all work. If we could pull off Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas as a foursome then I think that's the greatest value we could get.
Texas can save face by saying ESPN just wouldn't cooperate and being that the SEC already had a presence in TX, there just wasn't a lot of room available for a 3rd state school. In the end, Texas is better off anyway as they don't have all those in-state competitors. UT can schedule these other schools regularly out of conference anyway and that's probably more enticing to their fans than regular games against Rice and the like.
I think ESPN could build a much more attractive leftover league if they've got a heavy presence in TX and they wouldn't have to pay as much for it.
Let's say the ACC took TCU and West Virginia to increase their market footprint while also adding more competition in their upper quadrant. Notre Dame can remain partial for now and the ACC could always go to 18 should ND make it worth their while.
Then ESPN can go about rebuilding the American to be a better TV product. Maybe something like this...
West: San Diego State, BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, Texas Tech
Central: Baylor, SMU, Tulsa, Kansas State, Iowa State
South: Navy, Houston, Tulane, Memphis, Cincinnati
East: UCF, USF, East Carolina, Temple, UConn