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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Jacob at PG
Great points #1. I guess I'm still scratching my head from the fact that some b_itch about our shat conference that we're stuck in and why we can't have more teams step up since UConn and Memphis are down right now. Well, WSU, Houston and Temple are pretty good this year and as a whole, our conference is better overall. You can't have it both ways when we get beat on the road by one of the stronger teams in the American.
 
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 06:26 PM by UCGrad1992.)
02-16-2018 06:25 PM
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doss2 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-16-2018 11:51 AM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Remember when Broome was our best player in practice last year? Yeah...
I kept hearing that. Where is that guy?
 
02-16-2018 06:53 PM
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Post: #43
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-16-2018 06:53 PM)doss2 Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 11:51 AM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Remember when Broome was our best player in practice last year? Yeah...
I kept hearing that. Where is that guy?

He's on the bench right next to the guy who was unstoppable in Deveroe's Summer League games...
 
02-16-2018 07:04 PM
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jarr Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-16-2018 06:25 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Great points #1. I guess I'm still scratching my head from the fact that some b_itch about our shat conference that we're stuck in and why we can't have more teams step up since UConn and Memphis are down right now. Well, WSU, Houston and Temple are pretty good this year and as a whole, our conference is better overall. You can't have it both ways when we get beat on the road by one of the stronger teams in the American.

I don't think it was the loss itself that was bothersome, Houston is a good team and it's always hard winning on the road.

I'm more concerned about the same things I've been seeing all year, that got covered up in the long winning streak. Generally Micks teams do a very good job at beating the teams they should beat. They play hard every game, play good defense, and rebound. This will allow you to beat teams 50-350 at a high rate. I just don't think they have the makeup to beat the best teams (1-20). But I pray to Baby Jesus they prove me wrong and some blowhard like Bearcats#1 (sorry jk) can rub it in my face and tell me to eat crow.
 
02-16-2018 08:00 PM
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Bcatbog Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Jacob at PG
3 top 10 teams lost last night.

We lost to a good team that hit their key 3s.

If there is a complaint to be had it is our schedule.

If we are going to win in March we need to play teams that are actually good.

Our SOS is unworthy of a top 10 team.

Kudos to UH - if we are top 10 good UH they opened the door.
 
02-16-2018 08:13 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-16-2018 08:00 PM)jarr Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 06:25 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Great points #1. I guess I'm still scratching my head from the fact that some b_itch about our shat conference that we're stuck in and why we can't have more teams step up since UConn and Memphis are down right now. Well, WSU, Houston and Temple are pretty good this year and as a whole, our conference is better overall. You can't have it both ways when we get beat on the road by one of the stronger teams in the American.

I don't think it was the loss itself that was bothersome, Houston is a good team and it's always hard winning on the road.

I'm more concerned about the same things I've been seeing all year, that got covered up in the long winning streak. Generally Micks teams do a very good job at beating the teams they should beat. They play hard every game, play good defense, and rebound. This will allow you to beat teams 50-350 at a high rate. I just don't think they have the makeup to beat the best teams (1-20). But I pray to Baby Jesus they prove me wrong and some blowhard like Bearcats#1 (sorry jk) can rub it in my face and tell me to eat crow.

I was one of the earliest ones on here to tout "this is the year" due to talent, returning players, expectations, sports media hype/love, conference coaches' votes, etc., etc. Anything less than a share of the conference title and making it to the second weekend would be a yuge disappointment. In particular, taking into account our lack of success in the NCAAT in recent years. However, this team has thus far met, and slightly exceeded, my regular season expectations. Look at our record, our rankings, our metrics, etc. I'm not even concerned about the conference tourney let alone the NCAAT right now. Cross that bridge...we are within 5 games of Mick's first outright conference championship! I want that banner so effin' bad I can taste it. The players and coaches know that is within reach. It is a team goal. One conference loss does not a season make. We got our biggest home game on Sunday to make a statement on center stage. We shouldn't want it any other way. The team and coaches know they didn't play their best against the Coogs. I like our chances to rebound and play well at home. This team has only lost two in a row one time this year - a bad road loss followed by a neutral court close loss. That's it. For all of this team's "alleged" problems we've only lost one more game since then. That's unreal. Can we lose Sunday and not play our best or some questionable coaching moves factor in? Of course. I just don't see a pattern of where either has reared its ugly head over the course of the season to cause major concerns at this juncture.
 
02-16-2018 08:33 PM
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Post: #47
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-16-2018 08:13 PM)Bcatbog Wrote:  3 top 10 teams lost last night.

We lost to a good team that hit their key 3s.

If there is a complaint to be had it is our schedule.

If we are going to win in March we need to play teams that are actually good.

Our SOS is unworthy of a top 10 team.

Kudos to UH - if we are top 10 good UH they opened the door.

This again? Look at the OOC SOS and overall SOS of teams like Michigan State and Texas Tech. Hell look at Gonzaga. Check back.
 
02-16-2018 08:34 PM
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WalterSobchak Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-16-2018 07:04 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 06:53 PM)doss2 Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 11:51 AM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Remember when Broome was our best player in practice last year? Yeah...
I kept hearing that. Where is that guy?

He's on the bench right next to the guy who was unstoppable in Deveroe's Summer League games...

Good Stuff! So freakin true!
 
02-16-2018 09:10 PM
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jarr Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-16-2018 08:34 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 08:13 PM)Bcatbog Wrote:  3 top 10 teams lost last night.

We lost to a good team that hit their key 3s.

If there is a complaint to be had it is our schedule.

If we are going to win in March we need to play teams that are actually good.

Our SOS is unworthy of a top 10 team.

Kudos to UH - if we are top 10 good UH they opened the door.

This again? Look at the OOC SOS and overall SOS of teams like Michigan State and Texas Tech. Hell look at Gonzaga. Check back.

MSU's OOC schedule includes Duke, UNC, and Notre Dame (when they had Bonzi Colson). Even though the B1G is down, they still had to play OSU, Michigan, and Purdue. You can break out every geek ratings metric there is, but I'm not buying it. We all know how easily SOS can be manipulated one way or the other. My general point is there is something to be said about beating the best teams(especially away from home). Throw out all the other games. We are 0-3 in our 3 toughest games this year, and quite frankly haven't looked good in any of those games. I'm hoping we step it up for our next big game on Sunday.
 
02-16-2018 09:31 PM
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RE: Jacob at PG
What is wrong with this fan base? Seriously. We may need tutorials.

Did you even look at MSU’s OOC SOS? Honest Q.

It’s rated 80 freaking spots below UC at #217. Their overal SOS is a dozen spots lower. Can we agree that the schedule is not the issue?
 
02-16-2018 11:30 PM
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jarr Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-16-2018 11:30 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  What is wrong with this fan base? Seriously. We may need tutorials.

Did you even look at MSU’s OOC SOS? Honest Q.

It’s rated 80 freaking spots below UC at #217. Their overal SOS is a dozen spots lower. Can we agree that the schedule is not the issue?

Yes. MSU has a lesser SOS. I clearly stated above that SOS can be misleading.

For example, if someone plays 5 to 7 games against the top 20, and then a whole bunch of games with teams outsode of the top 100, is there schedule worse than a team that plays all games against teams between 50 and 100? I would say no, but that is subjective. Ken Pomeroy himself has admitted there are flaws in his metrics, and ways to game the ratings. Mick's teams and this team in particular are really good against 50-100 teams, even better than teams like Duke, MSU, Xavier, etc. They absolutely take care if business against these teams

The only thing I'm really trying to say, is that I personally put a lot of stock into what a team does against there top 5 or 6 games, and how good those teams are. A lot of the RPI and Kenpom metrics don't put as much stock into that, but that's just my personal view. To be fair, I don't think we have had a big enough sample size of these games to make a truly fair judgement. I really hope they much better than my expectations come March, I'm just nit buying the elite talk being thrown around until we play more of these type of games. We are good, I would never deny that.
 
02-17-2018 08:24 AM
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Post: #52
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-16-2018 08:00 PM)jarr Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 06:25 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Great points #1. I guess I'm still scratching my head from the fact that some b_itch about our shat conference that we're stuck in and why we can't have more teams step up since UConn and Memphis are down right now. Well, WSU, Houston and Temple are pretty good this year and as a whole, our conference is better overall. You can't have it both ways when we get beat on the road by one of the stronger teams in the American.

I don't think it was the loss itself that was bothersome, Houston is a good team and it's always hard winning on the road.

I'm more concerned about the same things I've been seeing all year, that got covered up in the long winning streak. Generally Micks teams do a very good job at beating the teams they should beat. They play hard every game, play good defense, and rebound. This will allow you to beat teams 50-350 at a high rate. I just don't think they have the makeup to beat the best teams (1-20). But I pray to Baby Jesus they prove me wrong and some blowhard like Bearcats#1 (sorry jk) can rub it in my face and tell me to eat crow.


hey now...I resemeble that comment
 
02-17-2018 09:03 AM
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Post: #53
RE: Jacob at PG
(02-17-2018 08:24 AM)jarr Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 11:30 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  What is wrong with this fan base? Seriously. We may need tutorials.

Did you even look at MSU’s OOC SOS? Honest Q.

It’s rated 80 freaking spots below UC at #217. Their overal SOS is a dozen spots lower. Can we agree that the schedule is not the issue?

Yes. MSU has a lesser SOS. I clearly stated above that SOS can be misleading.

For example, if someone plays 5 to 7 games against the top 20, and then a whole bunch of games with teams outsode of the top 100, is there schedule worse than a team that plays all games against teams between 50 and 100? I would say no, but that is subjective. Ken Pomeroy himself has admitted there are flaws in his metrics, and ways to game the ratings. Mick's teams and this team in particular are really good against 50-100 teams, even better than teams like Duke, MSU, Xavier, etc. They absolutely take care if business against these teams

The only thing I'm really trying to say, is that I personally put a lot of stock into what a team does against there top 5 or 6 games, and how good those teams are. A lot of the RPI and Kenpom metrics don't put as much stock into that, but that's just my personal view. To be fair, I don't think we have had a big enough sample size of these games to make a truly fair judgement. I really hope they much better than my expectations come March, I'm just nit buying the elite talk being thrown around until we play more of these type of games. We are good, I would never deny that.

RPI can be gamed, kenpom isn't really a system that you can game. That doesn't mean kenpom is going to be 100% accurate or gospel, but its not like RPI where you can buy the right games and increase your RPI by large amounts...or schedule poorly and face the opposite consequences. Because of the way kenpom adjusts for competition level it's not a system teams can really artificially inflate their accomplishments.

That said... 25 games per team is a good size sample size for good accuracy with most teams, but not enough that there won't be outliers and won't be random teams that are artificially higher or lower than they should be. Your point regarding how UC does against 50-100 teams is interesting, I would argue that history tells us teams that are that dominant in those kind of games are top 5-10 caliber teams.

I get your point about how a team does in their top 5 or 6 games... If you're at 6, UC is 3-3 in their top 6 games. Of course, 3 of those were true road games and 1 was on a neutral court. And 6 games is a small sample size. True road games are a different animal... even top 10 teams are often underdogs against teams in the 20-30 range. That doesn't mean they are not a top ten team. I guess my point is this, I get the skepticism, but I think people are reading too much into this small sample of games and that UC probably isn't far off what a top 5-10 would be expected to do against that slate. My guess is the two most likely records for a top 5-10 team in those 6 games would 3-3 and 4-2. I wish UC had done better, but it's not the kind of thing that makes me think they aren't a top 5-10 team like all the metrics seem to suggest.
 
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2018 09:27 AM by bearcatmark.)
02-17-2018 09:27 AM
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cpawstoney Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Jacob at PG
UC's Jacob Evans will likely play in the NBA in the near future -- but how near? He's not saying

Quote:"I look up and see the names, and it's just a reminder of where I want to be," Evans said. "I just try to push myself to reach those goals and that dream."

Evans just doesn't know when he will declare himself eligible. That's a decision that will come after the season.
 
02-27-2018 02:39 PM
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Post: #55
RE: Jacob at PG
i know this is a jacob thread, but i'd like to see keith run some point next year. take over in year three
 
02-28-2018 08:23 AM
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