RE: Pence Gives Sobering Reminder About Kim Jong Un's Sister
Pence is absolutely correct. If I recall correctly, one of her responsibilities is the gulags, which have probably outlived their usefulness to the Norks.
On the other hand, the US may be missing the opportunity of a lifetime. My opinion is that there is more chance of re-unification today than there ever has been, and I think that the Norks are signalling that to the South. They could signal that by closing the gulags, and/or deporting its residence to the south.
This is a pretty unique time in history for Korea. The North has demonstrated the capability to at least threaten the US mainland. Kim Jung Un is not the one responsible for many of the atrocities in the North, and has signaled the desire to improve conditions for citizens of the North. He seems to be a very capable leader, and is young.
IMHO, it makes sense for Kim to come to an arrangement where Korea re-unifies, the world accepts them as a nuclear power, and the Kim family agrees to stay out of politics for ten years or so, after which they could run for office in a Korea that is unified under the South's economic and political system. After that waiting period, he would almost certainly have a tremendous amount of political power and could easily resume the role of leader.
I think Koreans value their identity as a bulwark immune to invasion from the south (Japan) and North (China). A divided Korea with American troops in the South has helped that role, and South Koreans see the US as both a blessing and curse - they provide relative freedom and security from invasion by North Korea, but they also have considerable control over what decisions South Korea can make. The US was never a party to the Korean war (they were there under pretext of UN forces), but they still have wartime control over South Korea's military, and South Korea reimburses the US for its military presence, and that's not really a voluntary decision on the part of the South ... it's just reflective of post-WWII history, and it's something that I think they both know is necessary and that they have no choice of accepting.
With regards to the North, the US bombing destroyed nearly the entire existing infrastructure of North Korea (I think considerable parts of the South) and the US killed 3 million Koreans in a two year war police action... this included the first military use of napalm as an anti-personnel weapon (not as a defoliant as it was used in Vietnam). I think it was Lyndon B. Johnson that was quoted as saying "I don't want Vietnam to become another Korea". Consider the weight of that statement to someone of my generation (I came of age in the 1980s), where Vietnam was the epitome of the double failure of US policy and military power, and that stands as LBJ's legacy in foreign relations.
Korea was strategically important enough that China essentially threw millions of troops into a buzzsaw in order to prevent US victory. The Chinese basically destroyed General MacArthur's career in the process after he miscalculated their commitment, and his staff disregarded clear signs of Chinese intervention.
Korea remains strategically important to help contain Chinese naval power, amplifying the importance of the South China Sea to China.
The question is whether unification is worth the risk of talking to the North. The US is not in the position of being able to dictate terms to the North. It's unlikely that the North will ever trust the US. Does the US want unification? What does the US lose by talking to the North at this time? What does the US lose from listening to the North at this time?
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