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Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #1
Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
I guess we'll see what direction ESPN takes when their new CEO is named, but for now it's rampant speculation time!

The only 2 leagues that are currently signed on for long term deals are the SEC and ACC. I'm sure it's no coincidence that these 2 leagues are under the umbrella of ESPN.

There are 2 wildcards there as the SEC's 1st Tier deal(which currently belongs to CBS) will come up for bid in 2024. Respectively, the ACC is supposed to launch a network in 2019.

For the Big Ten, their current deal runs only 6 years and finishes in 2023, however, their BTN deal runs through 2032

It should be noted that the Big Ten had to make some concessions to get the deal they have.

1. Friday night games
2. 9 conferences games
3. no FCS schools on the schedule, however, with exceptions

The Pac 12 also runs through 2024.

The Big 12 runs though 2025.

It's a very interesting confluence and it could lead to massive realignment as the next wave of contracts approaches.

Let me offer a slightly different take on things...

The recent shakeup at ESPN creates a few new possibilities. It's not only that ESPN purchased the RSNs, but that a very ACC friendly CEO went out. Given all the changes in the marketplace in the coming few years, what sort of outlook does ESPN have on it's current properties? What's most efficient and what's most profitable? Now I'm not suggesting that ESPN is on the verge of breaking up the ACC, but I think an interesting opportunity presents itself.

A reorganized Power 5 that better reflects the disparities in college athletics and that better sets the foundation for a new division.

The Big Ten will get to negotiate first in the new landscape unless a few more dramatic decisions are made in the coming years. That might not be in ESPN's best interests as the B1G is not likely to ally itself with Disney again anytime soon.

Currently, the SEC is ESPN's tentpole programming as far as college sports goes. Frankly, ESPN can't afford to tick the league off. The content is too important and the investment is too deep at this point. The problem is that the SEC bridges a geographical gap between some of the most profitable college properties on the table. Oklahoma and Texas may well be there for the taking and if the SEC ever allies itself with another network then ACC properties could move as well. No matter how you look at it, the SEC is going to get more powerful and it's a question of what serves ESPN's interests in the long term rather than an issue of what sort of move will the SEC make.

I would argue as well that the coming decisions are even more precarious because there is a chance that the entire West Coast could be rendered 2nd fiddle if their money doesn't pick up. A significant weakening of one region or the other could devalue the game in the long run.

What to do? Well, it's time for some fancy footwork.

The first thing ESPN needs to do is guarantee the SEC that they can take whatever they want out of the ACC and in fact should take about 10 schools.

I would suggest these:

Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Louisville. I would also suggest Wake Forest be given a partial membership as I think it's likely they could drop football without an ACC to play in.

Now that the SEC has been satiated, this gives ESPN the opportunity to tell Texas and Oklahoma that their best bet is to unite with the PAC. Well, unification with the PAC might be an exaggeration.

If ESPN can purchase the PAC Network then they can create a better foundation for those schools to make additions and move forward. The PAC really doesn't have another option as some of the properties could get absorbed by the Big Ten which I wouldn't think they would prefer because of geographical distance. Or a handful of schools could bolt for the Big 12, but that could leave several regional partners without a decent home.

After all, ESPN can get the PAC universal carriage which is what they desperately need. They can arrange for certain schools to be added which is also what the PAC needs. They also offer a better platform that, in a new world of college athletics, could prove crucial.

Here's the kicker though...how are we going to divide the Big 12? Isn't that the age old problem? That GOR runs through 2025 and most of these schools have no motivation to vote to dissolve early if they don't have a decent landing spot. What to do?

Bottom line is certain schools need solid guarantees or they might as well wait for their inevitable fate in 2025. Remnants of the Big 12 and ACC could be easily put together along with a few top schools from the AAC to form a profitable league. If this league is given Power status then everything should work pretty smoothly.

The key for all of this is to make it happen before the Big Ten has another shot at renegotiation. Why? Because the B1G has nothing to gain by playing ball. Every league is in it for themselves, but some leagues have a motivation to be a malleable partner to ESPN. The B1G does not and yet it's necessary to create a new sort of equilibrium. A new established order that benefits the college game and undergirds ESPN's new investment in the RSNs.

-Behold a new PAC...

North: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
East: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State


-The Big Ten remains the same for now...

West: Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue
East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers


-The SEC adds the aforementioned 10 + 1 partial from the ACC.


-A new remnant league is formed that makes decent money, but doesn't cost too much. This league also gives the larger powers some cannon fodder during the regular season and creates an interesting dynamic where a "cinderella" could qualify for the CFP.

West: BYU, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Tulane

East: Boston College, UConn, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF, USF

This league also gives Notre Dame an opportunity to remain independent.

Now if ESPN were to move on something like this sooner than later then they bring everything to a close before the Big Ten gets an opportunity to throw another wrench in their efforts. There simply aren't many properties that the B1G would be interested in at this point due to the financial reality that they are making more than everyone else. Now, taking those properties off the board is easier said than done, but I think this alignment would actually give each of those parties essentially what they wanted and an opportunity to make competitive to great money while doing it.
02-05-2018 08:38 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
Let's be honest: the conference which needs to be split - from both a geographic and rivalry point of view - is the SEC. East should combine with the ACC while the West combines with Big XII...

Not that it will happen, but the SEC really straddled 2 regions - 2 time zones in fact. Money trumps everything... But it certainly doesn't make things better.
02-05-2018 09:47 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 09:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's be honest: the conference which needs to be split - from both a geographic and rivalry point of view - is the SEC. East should combine with the ACC while the West combines with Big XII...

Not that it will happen, but the SEC really straddled 2 regions - 2 time zones in fact. Money trumps everything... But it certainly doesn't make things better.

Said as the ACC is a conference that arguably crosses 3 different regions. 03-lmfao

If the goal is to improve the ACC and B12 then sure that is the easiest suggestion. The doesn't mean there aren't other alternative that could yield similar to better results.
02-05-2018 12:22 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
ATU,

Unless a couple of those mega-corporations finally decide to get into the bidding, I have a hard time seeing who ESPN would be negotiating against.
02-05-2018 12:40 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 12:22 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 09:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's be honest: the conference which needs to be split - from both a geographic and rivalry point of view - is the SEC. East should combine with the ACC while the West combines with Big XII...

Not that it will happen, but the SEC really straddled 2 regions - 2 time zones in fact. Money trumps everything... But it certainly doesn't make things better.

Said as the ACC is a conference that arguably crosses 3 different regions. 03-lmfao

If the goal is to improve the ACC and B12 then sure that is the easiest suggestion. The doesn't mean there aren't other alternative that could yield similar to better results.

03-shhhh

IDK. Is there more difference between Virginia and Florida, or Alabama and Florida? No doubt Massachusetts is unique, but so is Texas. I guess your point is that both conferences are now multi-regional.

So maybe a better question is how big can they get before they need to split? The OP essentially describes the per-SEC Southern conference, with a few tweaks. That became unwieldy.
02-05-2018 12:47 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 09:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's be honest: the conference which needs to be split - from both a geographic and rivalry point of view - is the SEC. East should combine with the ACC while the West combines with Big XII...

Not that it will happen, but the SEC really straddled 2 regions - 2 time zones in fact. Money trumps everything... But it certainly doesn't make things better.

No, let's be brutally honest. The ACC North was product that Disney wanted to keep away from the Big 10. The Southern former independents, plus Miami is for the most part product Disney didn't want the SEC to have because our leverage would have ben too great. The old core of the ACC is the only part that has suffered a loss. Outside of that the old core of the ACC is still intact, still cohesive but one school has been changed from the old days, Clemson. It changed because it is better positioned moving forward to position itself more favorably.

And Mark the only reason the SEC seems to be in two regions was because ESPN used us to park the product from the Big 12 that it didn't want in the Big 10 or PAC.

From the old SEC through North Carolina we have the old Southern Conference.

But I'm going to stand by my old contingency here anyway. It is far more likely that ESPN tries to consume the Big 12 before it comes on the market in 2023 for 2025 than it is that it will split any of its more fully owned product. The only question is how?

Well, if it occurs what is paid out will defy conventional wisdom. Why? Texas will want it's 50 million a year that it gets now. The ACC for the trouble wants to have the economic gap which is currently its only threat removed, and the Big 12 schools other than Texas will need enough of a bump to cover minor sports competition.

So something like this might be worked out:
Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, West Virginia to the SEC.

Baylor, Notre Dame, Houston, Kansas State, Texas, T.C.U. to the ACC.

Both conferences move up in revenue. The SEC settles in a 55-60 million pay out per school the ACC settles into a 50-55 million payout per school. The Big 12 decides to dissolve early the LHN is folded back into ESPN's hands to use as it sees fit, or to dismantle. But personally I think it would be the home studio of the Spanish versions of the SECN and ACCN.

The new ACC would look like this:

Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

Baylor, Houston, Kansas State, Texas, T.C.U.

In other words you land Texas by giving them three other Texas schools to play plus nearby Kansas State and allowing them to make as much money as they did with the LHN and putting them in a conference where they get Florida recruiting trips and Notre Dame could be a conference game. And since the SEC is under the same umbrella they get to keep the RRR and schedule Texas A&M again.

What does the SEC get out of it? A great basketball blue blood, and 4 more states added to its footprint. Now we look like this.

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia

Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

This way the Big 12 is totally accounted for and there is no need to bid against the other competitors and risk losing Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma. And if the SEC and ACC are compensated for the trouble it works.

Now, all of the top 25 product is off the market except for a handful of Big 10 programs and the most watched area of the country picks up markets and the ACCN has a strong opening in Texas.

That would cost ESPN 93 million to move the Big 12 schools plus Houston to the ACC. It would cost them another 210 million for the ACC bump up from the move. But Texas and Notre Dame are in full time now and that adds much of the real value of that boost in pay.

ESPN would also pick up FOX's half of the current base pay for the Big 12 schools (170 million).

For the 6 schools moving to the SEC from the Big 12 the total cost would be 90 million more. And the SEC bump to 55 million would be 140 million more.

The total cost would be $703 million per year more. Minus $350 million by letting the Big 10 contract go. And minus $170 million more for the PAC time slots. So the NET expense by doing this would be $183 million. But for that additional 183 million a year they add Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Notre Dame as full participants and they give the ACCN the Texas and Notre Dame anchors they need to make it valuable.

Then they set up a 10 game conference schedule for the ACC & SEC (4 divisional games, 5 cross divisional games representing 1 whole rotating division per year, and 1 permanent rival). And they play the two OOC games against the other Disney properties. So the ACC would play 10 conference games plus 2 SEC OOC games each and the SEC would play 10 conference games plus 2 ACC OCC games each. ESPN monopolizes the largest footprint in America in the most watched areas, with about 60% of the top 25 brands, and the best basketball, baseball, softball, and gymnastics for the off season. And it has the RSN's on which to air more games.

We are talking about a company that spends billions. Another 183 million to secure that property in the face of mounting competition is nothing.

And in all of it the core of the current ACC and SEC remains exactly as is with the exception that a new division for each has been added.

I consider this kind of solution to be much more likely than the division of the ACC, school swapping, or the auctioning off of the Big 12 along about 2023.

Disney has the wherewithal to make this happen in house and literally score the product of the Big 12 before it comes on the market.

Iowa State & Kansas gives them other schools tugging at the underbelly of the Big 10 besides Notre Dame and Syracuse. ESPN will own every P5 school and promote one within the state of Texas guaranteeing that Texans will want both the SECN and ACCN. And that gives them 6 opportunities every Saturday to draw top ratings from that well for advertising.

It puts the SECN into a slither of the beltway and into the underbelly of the Big 10 while reuniting rivalries.

So from a market standpoint Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt and West Virginia can all put ESPN into the major cities across the Big 10 save for Minneapolis-St. Paul and Madison.

Oklahoma gets to keep old foes Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Missouri and Texas A&M and the RRR is guaranteed.

Texas keeps three in state games and close by K State and picks up games in Florida and with Notre Dame.

And the Irish go all in because they'll never sniff 50 million in TV rights on their own and because they'll have nowhere else to go once the Big 12 is gone.

BTW with this arrangement ESPN will own 8 of the top 10 grossing athletic departments in the nation and 15 of the top 25.
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2018 03:04 PM by JRsec.)
02-05-2018 01:25 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 12:40 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  ATU,

Unless a couple of those mega-corporations finally decide to get into the bidding, I have a hard time seeing who ESPN would be negotiating against.

I think that's the question.

If Amazon or another plans on getting in then we should know before long. If they do then ESPN could face some difficulties.
02-05-2018 02:35 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 02:35 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 12:40 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  ATU,

Unless a couple of those mega-corporations finally decide to get into the bidding, I have a hard time seeing who ESPN would be negotiating against.

I think that's the question.

If Amazon or another plans on getting in then we should know before long. If they do then ESPN could face some difficulties.

The trick here guys is for ESPN to lock up the top product before an Amazon gets into the mix. ESPN won't mind leasing product to Amazon, but they dang sure don't want to bid against them for it.

And if this forces the PAC to merge with the Big 10 by dropping Washington State and Oregon State then so be it. We move to a P3 of a 20 team ACC, 20 team SEC, and a 24 team Big 10.
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2018 03:09 PM by JRsec.)
02-05-2018 02:50 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
Everyone needs to pay close attention to the Big 12 and PAC 12. The real disruption in college athletics could come from those two conferences splitting up and forming new conferences that rival the Big 10 and SEC in monetary value.
02-05-2018 04:47 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 09:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's be honest: the conference which needs to be split - from both a geographic and rivalry point of view - is the SEC. East should combine with the ACC while the West combines with Big XII...

Not that it will happen, but the SEC really straddled 2 regions - 2 time zones in fact. Money trumps everything... But it certainly doesn't make things better.

ACC
Florida, Georgia, Clemson, South Carolina, Wake Forest, NC State, Va. Tech, Boston College
Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Duke, Carolina, UVa, Syracuse, Pitt
02-05-2018 04:48 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 04:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 09:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's be honest: the conference which needs to be split - from both a geographic and rivalry point of view - is the SEC. East should combine with the ACC while the West combines with Big XII...

Not that it will happen, but the SEC really straddled 2 regions - 2 time zones in fact. Money trumps everything... But it certainly doesn't make things better.

ACC
Florida, Georgia, Clemson, South Carolina, Wake Forest, NC State, Va. Tech, Boston College
Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Duke, Carolina, UVa, Syracuse, Pitt

The SEC
Kentucky, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss. State

LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
02-05-2018 04:52 PM
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Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 04:47 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Everyone needs to pay close attention to the Big 12 and PAC 12. The real disruption in college athletics could come from those two conferences splitting up and forming new conferences that rival the Big 10 and SEC in monetary value.


Something like this?

USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, TT, TCU, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Arizona St


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
02-05-2018 05:05 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 02:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 02:35 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 12:40 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  ATU,

Unless a couple of those mega-corporations finally decide to get into the bidding, I have a hard time seeing who ESPN would be negotiating against.

I think that's the question.

If Amazon or another plans on getting in then we should know before long. If they do then ESPN could face some difficulties.

The trick here guys is for ESPN to lock up the top product before an Amazon gets into the mix. ESPN won't mind leasing product to Amazon, but they dang sure don't want to bid against them for it.

And if this forces the PAC to merge with the Big 10 by dropping Washington State and Oregon State then so be it. We move to a P3 of a 20 team ACC, 20 team SEC, and a 24 team Big 10.

I concur JR, which is why if its going to happen, it’s got to be with either the SEC games on CBS, the B1G when the 6 year deal runs out or the B12 in 2024. The fact that FOX got TNF from the NFL without any real alt-media competition was telling IMO.
02-05-2018 06:49 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 05:05 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:47 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Everyone needs to pay close attention to the Big 12 and PAC 12. The real disruption in college athletics could come from those two conferences splitting up and forming new conferences that rival the Big 10 and SEC in monetary value.


Something like this?

USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, TT, TCU, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Arizona St


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hey guys, the PAC is not splitting up. They may be in hands other than ESPN and the Mouse is going to go after the Big 12 product.

And X, nobody is leaving the SEC or ACC when it happens.
02-05-2018 06:49 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 04:47 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Everyone needs to pay close attention to the Big 12 and PAC 12. The real disruption in college athletics could come from those two conferences splitting up and forming new conferences that rival the Big 10 and SEC in monetary value.

As long as the California schools remain committed the PAC will be fine. Their issues can be resolved with restructuring the PACN or a B1G scheduling agreement. There doesn’t appear to be any commitment by UTX and OU to the B12.
02-05-2018 06:53 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 06:49 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 02:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 02:35 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 12:40 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  ATU,

Unless a couple of those mega-corporations finally decide to get into the bidding, I have a hard time seeing who ESPN would be negotiating against.

I think that's the question.

If Amazon or another plans on getting in then we should know before long. If they do then ESPN could face some difficulties.

The trick here guys is for ESPN to lock up the top product before an Amazon gets into the mix. ESPN won't mind leasing product to Amazon, but they dang sure don't want to bid against them for it.

And if this forces the PAC to merge with the Big 10 by dropping Washington State and Oregon State then so be it. We move to a P3 of a 20 team ACC, 20 team SEC, and a 24 team Big 10.

I concur JR, which is why if its going to happen, it’s got to be with either the SEC games on CBS, the B1G when the 6 year deal runs out or the B12 in 2024. The fact that FOX got TNF from the NFL without any real alt-media competition was telling IMO.

The key here is not to wait for Amazon to buy the rest of FOX's college product along with FS1 an FS2. ESPN has what is necessary in their power right now to wrap this up in house and renegotiate a deal well into the future for the ACC and SEC by simply absorbing the Big 12.

That's why my first post was so long. If they have the ACC and SEC with the Big 12 absorbed into it then ESPN has 8 of the top 10 products and 15 of the top 25. They don't have to hold the PAC contract or the Big 10's for that matter because they have not only the cream of the football product, but also of the basketball, baseball, softball, and gymnastics.
02-05-2018 06:59 PM
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 05:05 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:47 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Everyone needs to pay close attention to the Big 12 and PAC 12. The real disruption in college athletics could come from those two conferences splitting up and forming new conferences that rival the Big 10 and SEC in monetary value.


Something like this?

USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, TT, TCU, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Arizona St


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hey guys, the PAC is not splitting up. They may be in hands other than ESPN and the Mouse is going to go after the Big 12 product.

And X, nobody is leaving the SEC or ACC when it happens.

I know that more than likely no one will leave either the ACC or the SEC.
02-05-2018 09:15 PM
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XLance Online
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RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 06:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 06:49 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 02:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 02:35 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 12:40 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  ATU,

Unless a couple of those mega-corporations finally decide to get into the bidding, I have a hard time seeing who ESPN would be negotiating against.

I think that's the question.

If Amazon or another plans on getting in then we should know before long. If they do then ESPN could face some difficulties.

The trick here guys is for ESPN to lock up the top product before an Amazon gets into the mix. ESPN won't mind leasing product to Amazon, but they dang sure don't want to bid against them for it.

And if this forces the PAC to merge with the Big 10 by dropping Washington State and Oregon State then so be it. We move to a P3 of a 20 team ACC, 20 team SEC, and a 24 team Big 10.

I concur JR, which is why if its going to happen, it’s got to be with either the SEC games on CBS, the B1G when the 6 year deal runs out or the B12 in 2024. The fact that FOX got TNF from the NFL without any real alt-media competition was telling IMO.

The key here is not to wait for Amazon to buy the rest of FOX's college product along with FS1 an FS2. ESPN has what is necessary in their power right now to wrap this up in house and renegotiate a deal well into the future for the ACC and SEC by simply absorbing the Big 12.

That's why my first post was so long. If they have the ACC and SEC with the Big 12 absorbed into it then ESPN has 8 of the top 10 products and 15 of the top 25. They don't have to hold the PAC contract or the Big 10's for that matter because they have not only the cream of the football product, but also of the basketball, baseball, softball, and gymnastics.

I do think that it is within the realm of possibility that if ESPN absorbs the Big 12, that the SEC could shift Arkansas and Missouri to the Big 12.
02-05-2018 09:27 PM
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Post: #19
RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 05:05 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:47 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Everyone needs to pay close attention to the Big 12 and PAC 12. The real disruption in college athletics could come from those two conferences splitting up and forming new conferences that rival the Big 10 and SEC in monetary value.


Something like this?

USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, TT, TCU, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Arizona St


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I don't know if I would go that extreme. But it might not be out of the realm of possibility to see some movement one way or the other.
02-05-2018 10:06 PM
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Post: #20
RE: Now that ESPN's leadership is in flux...
(02-05-2018 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  But I'm going to stand by my old contingency here anyway. It is far more likely that ESPN tries to consume the Big 12 before it comes on the market in 2023 for 2025 than it is that it will split any of its more fully owned product. The only question is how?

Well, if it occurs what is paid out will defy conventional wisdom. Why? Texas will want it's 50 million a year that it gets now. The ACC for the trouble wants to have the economic gap which is currently its only threat removed, and the Big 12 schools other than Texas will need enough of a bump to cover minor sports competition.

So something like this might be worked out:
Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, West Virginia to the SEC.

Baylor, Notre Dame, Houston, Kansas State, Texas, T.C.U. to the ACC.

Both conferences move up in revenue. The SEC settles in a 55-60 million pay out per school the ACC settles into a 50-55 million payout per school. The Big 12 decides to dissolve early the LHN is folded back into ESPN's hands to use as it sees fit, or to dismantle. But personally I think it would be the home studio of the Spanish versions of the SECN and ACCN.

The interesting part is the money.

ESPN would have to agree to pay both leagues more money than what the additions would demand. They might well do it for the reasons you're stating.

Would the leagues go all in on that assuming the money was guaranteed? I think they probably would.

I would suggest maybe a couple of alterations though. If we're promoting a single school from the G5 then I think Cincinnati would be the more economical decision. Something like this...

SEC adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, Cincinnati, and West Virginia

Midwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, Missouri
West: Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
South: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Cincinnati

ACC adds Notre Dame, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State

West: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State
North: Notre Dame, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College
Atlantic: Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, NC State, Duke
South: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest

Reason being is this:

ESPN will own the TX market handily without Houston. While UH is probably the better long term prospect for football success, that can also be used to the network's advantage in the tweener league. More Sun Belt products in the AAC will lead to better quality and more watchable games.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati offers a large new market for the conglomerate. That's especially true if they abandon the Big Ten's contract. OH is a great college football market and if UC has better resources they could likely make a dent in OSU's overall support although obviously the two would never be truly equal. Nonetheless, it's a large market with a lot of recruits and I think it would pay dividends to have it in the fold especially if the SECN and ACCN are bundled together...plenty of Notre Dame fans in OH.

For the SEC specifically, Texas Tech is a decent program, but they don't really give us anything we wouldn't already have. The additions of OU and OSU would supplement our support in TX and I think Tech would probably be more valuable if they were playing their more familiar regional schools.
02-06-2018 05:59 AM
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