(02-05-2018 09:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Let's be honest: the conference which needs to be split - from both a geographic and rivalry point of view - is the SEC. East should combine with the ACC while the West combines with Big XII...
Not that it will happen, but the SEC really straddled 2 regions - 2 time zones in fact. Money trumps everything... But it certainly doesn't make things better.
No, let's be brutally honest. The ACC North was product that Disney wanted to keep away from the Big 10. The Southern former independents, plus Miami is for the most part product Disney didn't want the SEC to have because our leverage would have ben too great. The old core of the ACC is the only part that has suffered a loss. Outside of that the old core of the ACC is still intact, still cohesive but one school has been changed from the old days, Clemson. It changed because it is better positioned moving forward to position itself more favorably.
And Mark the only reason the SEC seems to be in two regions was because ESPN used us to park the product from the Big 12 that it didn't want in the Big 10 or PAC.
From the old SEC through North Carolina we have the old Southern Conference.
But I'm going to stand by my old contingency here anyway. It is far more likely that ESPN tries to consume the Big 12 before it comes on the market in 2023 for 2025 than it is that it will split any of its more fully owned product. The only question is how?
Well, if it occurs what is paid out will defy conventional wisdom. Why? Texas will want it's 50 million a year that it gets now. The ACC for the trouble wants to have the economic gap which is currently its only threat removed, and the Big 12 schools other than Texas will need enough of a bump to cover minor sports competition.
So something like this might be worked out:
Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, West Virginia to the SEC.
Baylor, Notre Dame, Houston, Kansas State, Texas, T.C.U. to the ACC.
Both conferences move up in revenue. The SEC settles in a 55-60 million pay out per school the ACC settles into a 50-55 million payout per school. The Big 12 decides to dissolve early the LHN is folded back into ESPN's hands to use as it sees fit, or to dismantle. But personally I think it would be the home studio of the Spanish versions of the SECN and ACCN.
The new ACC would look like this:
Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest
Baylor, Houston, Kansas State, Texas, T.C.U.
In other words you land Texas by giving them three other Texas schools to play plus nearby Kansas State and allowing them to make as much money as they did with the LHN and putting them in a conference where they get Florida recruiting trips and Notre Dame could be a conference game. And since the SEC is under the same umbrella they get to keep the RRR and schedule Texas A&M again.
What does the SEC get out of it? A great basketball blue blood, and 4 more states added to its footprint. Now we look like this.
Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
This way the Big 12 is totally accounted for and there is no need to bid against the other competitors and risk losing Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma. And if the SEC and ACC are compensated for the trouble it works.
Now, all of the top 25 product is off the market except for a handful of Big 10 programs and the most watched area of the country picks up markets and the ACCN has a strong opening in Texas.
That would cost ESPN 93 million to move the Big 12 schools plus Houston to the ACC. It would cost them another 210 million for the ACC bump up from the move. But Texas and Notre Dame are in full time now and that adds much of the real value of that boost in pay.
ESPN would also pick up FOX's half of the current base pay for the Big 12 schools (170 million).
For the 6 schools moving to the SEC from the Big 12 the total cost would be 90 million more. And the SEC bump to 55 million would be 140 million more.
The total cost would be $703 million per year more. Minus $350 million by letting the Big 10 contract go. And minus $170 million more for the PAC time slots. So the NET expense by doing this would be $183 million. But for that additional 183 million a year they add Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Notre Dame as full participants and they give the ACCN the Texas and Notre Dame anchors they need to make it valuable.
Then they set up a 10 game conference schedule for the ACC & SEC (4 divisional games, 5 cross divisional games representing 1 whole rotating division per year, and 1 permanent rival). And they play the two OOC games against the other Disney properties. So the ACC would play 10 conference games plus 2 SEC OOC games each and the SEC would play 10 conference games plus 2 ACC OCC games each. ESPN monopolizes the largest footprint in America in the most watched areas, with about 60% of the top 25 brands, and the best basketball, baseball, softball, and gymnastics for the off season. And it has the RSN's on which to air more games.
We are talking about a company that spends billions. Another 183 million to secure that property in the face of mounting competition is nothing.
And in all of it the core of the current ACC and SEC remains exactly as is with the exception that a new division for each has been added.
I consider this kind of solution to be much more likely than the division of the ACC, school swapping, or the auctioning off of the Big 12 along about 2023.
Disney has the wherewithal to make this happen in house and literally score the product of the Big 12 before it comes on the market.
Iowa State & Kansas gives them other schools tugging at the underbelly of the Big 10 besides Notre Dame and Syracuse. ESPN will own every P5 school and promote one within the state of Texas guaranteeing that Texans will want both the SECN and ACCN. And that gives them 6 opportunities every Saturday to draw top ratings from that well for advertising.
It puts the SECN into a slither of the beltway and into the underbelly of the Big 10 while reuniting rivalries.
So from a market standpoint Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt and West Virginia can all put ESPN into the major cities across the Big 10 save for Minneapolis-St. Paul and Madison.
Oklahoma gets to keep old foes Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Missouri and Texas A&M and the RRR is guaranteed.
Texas keeps three in state games and close by K State and picks up games in Florida and with Notre Dame.
And the Irish go all in because they'll never sniff 50 million in TV rights on their own and because they'll have nowhere else to go once the Big 12 is gone.
BTW with this arrangement ESPN will own 8 of the top 10 grossing athletic departments in the nation and 15 of the top 25.