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Tigers a “Lucky” Team Per KP
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Tiger1983 Offline
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Post: #1
MyBB Tigers a “Lucky” Team Per KP
Per Kenpom after Saturday's game, the Tigers are the third "luckiest team" in D-1.

Per Kenpom, "Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky)."

https://kenpom.com
https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-glossary/
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2018 08:39 AM by Tiger1983.)
01-14-2018 08:33 AM
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holyterror Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
Lucky over good. All day long.
01-14-2018 08:50 AM
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Atlanta Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
So the Kenpom use of "luck" really isn't luck at all. It's simply the label used to show the deviation between what his model predicts vs what actually occurs....."which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record".

Probably doesn't suit your purpose when stated that way. I mean it would be awful if our team was actually better than the predictions you love to spout.
01-14-2018 08:55 AM
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Tiger1983 Offline
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RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 08:55 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  So the Kenpom use of "luck" really isn't luck at all. It's simply the label used to show the deviation between what his model predicts vs what actually occurs....."which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record".

Probably doesn't suit your purpose when stated that way. I mean it would be awful if our team was actually better than the predictions you love to spout.

Let's try to focus on aspects of our team rather than attack fellow Tiger fans. We all want success for our school.

The KenPom "luck" is not included in his metric calculations. It is an attempt (as stated above) to quantify "a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them." In other years, we have been less "lucky" but better. For example, in the 2009 season we were the 4th best KenPom team and the 190th luckiest team. In the 2012 season we were the 12th best KenPom school and 307th luckiest school.

Perhaps our "luck" this years is due to internal fortitude, a roll of the dice, or a combination thereof. It does not matter. Ultimately, winning sufficiently, within the rules, is all that matters and right now we are outside the NIT bubble list. We need to win more to become relevant again.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2018 11:07 AM by Tiger1983.)
01-14-2018 11:06 AM
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Atlanta Offline
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RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 11:06 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 08:55 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  So the Kenpom use of "luck" really isn't luck at all. It's simply the label used to show the deviation between what his model predicts vs what actually occurs....."which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record".

Probably doesn't suit your purpose when stated that way. I mean it would be awful if our team was actually better than the predictions you love to spout.

Let's try to focus on aspects of our team rather than attack fellow Tiger fans. We all want success for our school.

The KenPom "luck" is not included in his metric calculations. It is an attempt (as stated above) to quantify "a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them." In other years, we have been less "lucky" but better. For example, in the 2009 season we were the 4th best KenPom team and the 190th luckiest team. In the 2012 season we were the 12th best KenPom school and 307th luckiest school.

Perhaps our "luck" this years is due to internal fortitude, a roll of the dice, or a combination thereof. It does not matter. Ultimately, winning sufficiently, within the rules, is all that matters and right now we are outside the NIT bubble list. We need to win more to become relevant again.

I.e., let's not focus on your passive aggressive motives. Is that what you mean? OK then let's focus on this team being better than Kempom has predicted as his "luck" is actually defined.
01-14-2018 11:11 AM
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BinghamptonNed Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 11:11 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 11:06 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 08:55 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  So the Kenpom use of "luck" really isn't luck at all. It's simply the label used to show the deviation between what his model predicts vs what actually occurs....."which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record".

Probably doesn't suit your purpose when stated that way. I mean it would be awful if our team was actually better than the predictions you love to spout.

Let's try to focus on aspects of our team rather than attack fellow Tiger fans. We all want success for our school.

The KenPom "luck" is not included in his metric calculations. It is an attempt (as stated above) to quantify "a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them." In other years, we have been less "lucky" but better. For example, in the 2009 season we were the 4th best KenPom team and the 190th luckiest team. In the 2012 season we were the 12th best KenPom school and 307th luckiest school.

Perhaps our "luck" this years is due to internal fortitude, a roll of the dice, or a combination thereof. It does not matter. Ultimately, winning sufficiently, within the rules, is all that matters and right now we are outside the NIT bubble list. We need to win more to become relevant again.

I.e., let's not focus on your passive aggressive motives. Is that what you mean? OK then let's focus on this team being better than Kempom has predicted as his "luck" is actually defined.

It is funny how 1983 reacts when his negativity is pointed out
01-14-2018 11:15 AM
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bcspiker Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 08:33 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Per Kenpom after Saturday's game, the Tigers are the third "luckiest team" in D-1.

Per Kenpom, "Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky)."

https://kenpom.com
https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-glossary/
Sometimes teams learn to be "lucky".

Sent from my LG-H811 using CSNbbs mobile app
01-14-2018 11:17 AM
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Tiger1983 Offline
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RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 11:11 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 11:06 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 08:55 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  So the Kenpom use of "luck" really isn't luck at all. It's simply the label used to show the deviation between what his model predicts vs what actually occurs....."which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record".

Probably doesn't suit your purpose when stated that way. I mean it would be awful if our team was actually better than the predictions you love to spout.

Let's try to focus on aspects of our team rather than attack fellow Tiger fans. We all want success for our school.

The KenPom "luck" is not included in his metric calculations. It is an attempt (as stated above) to quantify "a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them." In other years, we have been less "lucky" but better. For example, in the 2009 season we were the 4th best KenPom team and the 190th luckiest team. In the 2012 season we were the 12th best KenPom school and 307th luckiest school.

Perhaps our "luck" this years is due to internal fortitude, a roll of the dice, or a combination thereof. It does not matter. Ultimately, winning sufficiently, within the rules, is all that matters and right now we are outside the NIT bubble list. We need to win more to become relevant again.

I.e., let's not focus on your passive aggressive motives. Is that what you mean? OK then let's focus on this team being better than Kempom has predicted as his "luck" is actually defined.

If you insist on trying to make this thread about me henceforth, then I will be obliged to ignore your posts in this thread after this post.

Our team, thankfully, is performing better than Kenpom recently predicted. However, we are still the 10th place AAC team according to his site (which is below our preseason placement on average and by the AAC coaches preseason poll).
01-14-2018 11:22 AM
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jgardne Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 08:55 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  So the Kenpom use of "luck" really isn't luck at all. It's simply the label used to show the deviation between what his model predicts vs what actually occurs....."which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record".

Probably doesn't suit your purpose when stated that way. I mean it would be awful if our team was actually better than the predictions you love to spout.

We are lucky though. I don’t need a stat to tell me that. The Brewton shot yesterday goes in maybe 1 in 20 times. A fadeaway turnaround 3 without even looking at the basket first. The Jamal Johnson 3 point play to win a game. All the comebacks in the early part of the season where everything broke just right for us to pull it out.

Generally a team should be .500 in close games. We are 5-0 in games decided by less than 5 points.
01-14-2018 11:40 AM
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450bench Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
The shot Brewton made was actually a good look. Yes, the pass was deflected, he grabbed it and had a good look and the shot went in.
01-14-2018 11:47 AM
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Post: #11
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 08:55 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  So the Kenpom use of "luck" really isn't luck at all. It's simply the label used to show the deviation between what his model predicts vs what actually occurs....."which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record".

Probably doesn't suit your purpose when stated that way. I mean it would be awful if our team was actually better than the predictions you love to spout.

I am not sure of 1983’s intention with this post, but I do agree that the Tigers have been “lucky” or good in close late-game situations. It is probably a combination of both. We have won a couple of games that we won on last-second shots - Brewton yesterday, Johnson earlier this year - if those shots dont go in, that’s 2 fewer Ws and 2 fewer Ls. Those shots could have EASILY not gone in. The play yesterday was VERY LUCKY - lucky the deflection bounced back to where he was and lucky the good shot went in, lucky Temple missed the front-end of the 1-1. Having said that, we put ourselves in position to win and got the W. I agree that we have been lucky, or fortunate, but sometimes you make your own luck.
01-14-2018 12:07 PM
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Post: #12
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 11:47 AM)450bench Wrote:  The shot Brewton made was actually a good look. Yes, the pass was deflected, he grabbed it and had a good look and the shot went in.

Perhaps, but SO LUCKY that the ball was deflected to where Brewton could get it and get off the shot. We certainly did not win because of a perfectly executed final play. I am not minimizing the win, but there was some good fortune to go along with our inspired play.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2018 12:16 PM by hsvtiger.)
01-14-2018 12:11 PM
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Atlanta Offline
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RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 11:22 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 11:11 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 11:06 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 08:55 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  So the Kenpom use of "luck" really isn't luck at all. It's simply the label used to show the deviation between what his model predicts vs what actually occurs....."which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record".

Probably doesn't suit your purpose when stated that way. I mean it would be awful if our team was actually better than the predictions you love to spout.

Let's try to focus on aspects of our team rather than attack fellow Tiger fans. We all want success for our school.

The KenPom "luck" is not included in his metric calculations. It is an attempt (as stated above) to quantify "a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them." In other years, we have been less "lucky" but better. For example, in the 2009 season we were the 4th best KenPom team and the 190th luckiest team. In the 2012 season we were the 12th best KenPom school and 307th luckiest school.

Perhaps our "luck" this years is due to internal fortitude, a roll of the dice, or a combination thereof. It does not matter. Ultimately, winning sufficiently, within the rules, is all that matters and right now we are outside the NIT bubble list. We need to win more to become relevant again.

I.e., let's not focus on your passive aggressive motives. Is that what you mean? OK then let's focus on this team being better than Kempom has predicted as his "luck" is actually defined.

If you insist on trying to make this thread about me henceforth, then I will be obliged to ignore your posts in this thread after this post.

Our team, thankfully, is performing better than Kenpom recently predicted. However, we are still the 10th place AAC team according to his site (which is below our preseason placement on average and by the AAC coaches preseason poll).

Again just confirmation that currently this team is playing better than predicted.
01-14-2018 12:18 PM
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jgardne Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 11:47 AM)450bench Wrote:  The shot Brewton made was actually a good look. Yes, the pass was deflected, he grabbed it and had a good look and the shot went in.

It was a turnaround 3 and fading away. And it was contested. And he was 2-3 feet behind the line. It wasn’t a good look.

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01-14-2018 01:12 PM
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TG4 Offline
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RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
Brewton turned, squared up and followed through. It wasn’t luck or a prayer. It was a helluva shot.

01-14-2018 01:39 PM
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eltigre Offline
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RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 11:17 AM)bcspiker Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 08:33 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Per Kenpom after Saturday's game, the Tigers are the third "luckiest team" in D-1.

Per Kenpom, "Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky)."

https://kenpom.com
https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-glossary/
Sometimes teams learn to be "lucky".

Sent from my LG-H811 using CSNbbs mobile app

There's a lot of truth to this. As has been said before, there are ways to make your own luck.
01-14-2018 01:40 PM
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AlonsoWDC Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
KenPom is a good source, but I outright reject the notion that a team is luckier because it wins more close games than a team that loses close games.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2018 01:58 PM by AlonsoWDC.)
01-14-2018 01:44 PM
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RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 11:47 AM)450bench Wrote:  The shot Brewton made was actually a good look. Yes, the pass was deflected, he grabbed it and had a good look and the shot went in.

I agree with this. He has a funny kick with his release (at least on THAT shot), but when you see the slo-mo from down-court, you see he pretty much had time to square up and shoot.
01-14-2018 01:48 PM
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jgardne Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 01:48 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 11:47 AM)450bench Wrote:  The shot Brewton made was actually a good look. Yes, the pass was deflected, he grabbed it and had a good look and the shot went in.

I agree with this. He has a funny kick with his release (at least on THAT shot), but when you see the slo-mo from down-court, you see he pretty much had time to square up and shoot.

Ok, sure. Fine. You guys clearly know what you’re talking about. A 22% 3 point shooter taking a heavily contested fading 3 2-3 feet behind the line is a good shot
01-14-2018 01:51 PM
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RE: Tigers a Lucky Team
(01-14-2018 01:51 PM)jgardne Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 01:48 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  
(01-14-2018 11:47 AM)450bench Wrote:  The shot Brewton made was actually a good look. Yes, the pass was deflected, he grabbed it and had a good look and the shot went in.

I agree with this. He has a funny kick with his release (at least on THAT shot), but when you see the slo-mo from down-court, you see he pretty much had time to square up and shoot.

Ok, sure. Fine. You guys clearly know what you’re talking about. A 22% 3 point shooter taking a heavily contested fading 3 2-3 feet behind the line is a good shot

...and he only had the ball because the defender deflected it in a way that the ball came back to him. It was a bit like nailing a 10-foot putt for the win after you skulled your approach that rolls thru the bunker and only the green. You gotta fortunate bounce, but you played well enough to be in position to win and took advantage of the fortunate bounce. It wasn’t all luck, but you did catch a break.
01-14-2018 02:18 PM
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