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ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
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rath v2.0 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
This is a 5-7 seed schedule and team.

The only real question is whether UC will be playing in either Sacramento or San Jose and against which west coast team.
 
12-15-2017 11:04 AM
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rtaylor Offline
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Post: #22
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(12-15-2017 10:16 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 10:13 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 09:47 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  All this talk of UC struggling to make the tourney or not moving up from a 7 seed is bogus.. if we finish the year with 6 or 7 losses they'll be just fine. Don't get me wrong I'd love to beat UCLA and run rampant through the AAC, but it's not impossible to not do that and stay at a 7 spot.

We lost 5 last year and were a #6 seed.

league was worse last year. League has many more good out of conference wins this y year

Yep. Good thing the league is propping us up. 07-coffee3
 
12-15-2017 11:21 AM
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Post: #23
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(12-15-2017 11:21 AM)rtaylor Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 10:16 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 10:13 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 09:47 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  All this talk of UC struggling to make the tourney or not moving up from a 7 seed is bogus.. if we finish the year with 6 or 7 losses they'll be just fine. Don't get me wrong I'd love to beat UCLA and run rampant through the AAC, but it's not impossible to not do that and stay at a 7 spot.

We lost 5 last year and were a #6 seed.

league was worse last year. League has many more good out of conference wins this y year

Yep. Good thing the league is propping us up. 07-coffee3

It's not that the league is propping UC up, it's that the league was a huge issue last year. SMU was a legit team but literally did nothing in the nonconference. Their only wins over tournament teams all year were the two wins they got against UC. When you only have 2 top 50 and 4 top 100 RPI teams you don't get enough of the kind of wins the committee wants to see. The league has compiled a nice list of wins this year that are going to be helpful come tournament time and make the wins against each other more valuable.
 
12-15-2017 11:25 AM
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bearcatlawjd2 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(12-15-2017 10:51 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 10:31 AM)JPBearcat3 Wrote:  The league is much better than last year. 5 losses total including a win against WSU would be a 4 seed, I'm guessing.

And that doesn't count the conference tournament. Win that (with another win over WSU) and we could see a 2 or 3 seed.

I'm not saying it's likely; just that the conference won't hold us back as much this year. Let's beat UCLA and get to 2018 with only 2 losses. This board will be a much happier place.

I agree with this. I also agree with Bearcatlawjd2 that UC's buy games are going to drop UC a seedline or so. Too many buy games against sub 250 teams.

The good news is the committee cares far more about top 50/100 type wins. Last year the league only had 4 top 100 RPI teams. This year RPI forecast is projecting 7 with two others that could be close or get there. Last year I believe UC/SMU were the only top 50 RPI teams in the league... This year it's looking like there will be 4 or 5 (depending on where Houston finishes). That's many more chances for the kind of wins the committee values. Even an additional loss or 2 and UC should have a good chance at a better seed. Lets get the win against UCLA and then be a force in conference play.

The non-conference schedule has seven RPI bombs in it. The Cayman Islands tournament result that hurt UC was playing Richmond instead of UAB. That is the difference between at top 150 team and a team that could be below 250 this year. Wyoming and Miss State are still picked to be middle to lower level teams in their league. Basically beating UCLA is the Cats last chance top pick up what will likely be a column one victory.

I can't stress enough how bad the non-conference schedule was setup. UC would have been better off searching for two road/neutral games against top 125 level teams. Heck road games at Dayton or Toledo who are both nothing special this year would have changed the team sheet. Home and homes with MTSU, WKU, and Marshall would have a gone a long way. This was the year to be creative in the schedule. Play one or two less home games and go and challenge yourself. It isn't like the fan base is in love with those weeknight buy games being played across the river.

Beat UCLA this weekend and the season is back on track. Lose to the Bruins and UC has to be almost perfect until February because the conference schedule is backloaded. Essentially this season comes down to this run in conference play: Houston, at UConn, UCF, at SMU, at Houston, Wichita State, UConn. More specifically UC has to beat Wichita State and go no worse than 5-2 through that run of games or 6-1 with the lone loss to Wichita State. At SMU, at Houston, and Wichita State are going to be column one games.
 
12-15-2017 11:30 AM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Post: #25
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
We are in a dire place if we don't win tomorrow. Yes, I know we'll still make the tournament, but just making the tournament is well short of what this team's goals should be. This is the year we are supposed to break into a top 4 seed, and if we end up below the 6 line, it's going to be very difficult to advance past the first weekend of the tournament. It's time to break through. No one here is necessarily expecting a Final Four run, but we need to at least get to the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success.
 
12-15-2017 12:52 PM
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Post: #26
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
The remaining schedule would allow UC to ge a 4 seed or better. The problem I see is this is not a team that is good enough to do it.

i agree with Rath, we have a 5-7 seed team this year.
 
12-15-2017 12:55 PM
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Post: #27
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(12-15-2017 12:52 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  We are in a dire place if we don't win tomorrow. Yes, I know we'll still make the tournament, but just making the tournament is well short of what this team's goals should be. This is the year we are supposed to break into a top 4 seed, and if we end up below the 6 line, it's going to be very difficult to advance past the first weekend of the tournament. It's time to break through. No one here is necessarily expecting a Final Four run, but we need to at least get to the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success.

Everyone on here was expecting an elite eight or final four run, a lot still do.
 
12-15-2017 03:12 PM
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RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(12-15-2017 03:12 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 12:52 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  We are in a dire place if we don't win tomorrow. Yes, I know we'll still make the tournament, but just making the tournament is well short of what this team's goals should be. This is the year we are supposed to break into a top 4 seed, and if we end up below the 6 line, it's going to be very difficult to advance past the first weekend of the tournament. It's time to break through. No one here is necessarily expecting a Final Four run, but we need to at least get to the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success.

Everyone on here was expecting an elite eight or final four run, a lot still do.

Mid-major league added a mid-major team in Wichita and people are expecting a top seed. Seriously? The league schedule itself will never allow it. Just like an undefeated UCF in football, no way they get close to the playoffs. Please see UofL discussion for reasons. Anyone up for coloring outside the lines?
 
12-15-2017 04:03 PM
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rath v2.0 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(12-15-2017 03:12 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 12:52 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  We are in a dire place if we don't win tomorrow. Yes, I know we'll still make the tournament, but just making the tournament is well short of what this team's goals should be. This is the year we are supposed to break into a top 4 seed, and if we end up below the 6 line, it's going to be very difficult to advance past the first weekend of the tournament. It's time to break through. No one here is necessarily expecting a Final Four run, but we need to at least get to the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success.

Everyone on here was expecting an elite eight or final four run, a lot still do.

03-lmfao Bless their hearts.
 
12-15-2017 04:04 PM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Post: #30
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(12-15-2017 04:03 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 03:12 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 12:52 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  We are in a dire place if we don't win tomorrow. Yes, I know we'll still make the tournament, but just making the tournament is well short of what this team's goals should be. This is the year we are supposed to break into a top 4 seed, and if we end up below the 6 line, it's going to be very difficult to advance past the first weekend of the tournament. It's time to break through. No one here is necessarily expecting a Final Four run, but we need to at least get to the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success.

Everyone on here was expecting an elite eight or final four run, a lot still do.

Mid-major league added a mid-major team in Wichita and people are expecting a top seed. Seriously? The league schedule itself will never allow it. Just like an undefeated UCF in football, no way they get close to the playoffs. Please see UofL discussion for reasons. Anyone up for coloring outside the lines?

Both Wichita State and Gonzaga have been 1 seeds in the tournament within the last 3-4 years coming from weaker conferences than the AAC. Memphis used to do it too out of C-USA 2.0. There is no reason a team from the AAC can't be a 1 seed, and certainly no reason why Cincinnati couldn't do it with the right tournament resume. We may not be a blue blood, but our name still bears some weight with the selection committee.
 
12-15-2017 04:25 PM
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bearcatlawjd2 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(12-15-2017 12:52 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  We are in a dire place if we don't win tomorrow. Yes, I know we'll still make the tournament, but just making the tournament is well short of what this team's goals should be. This is the year we are supposed to break into a top 4 seed, and if we end up below the 6 line, it's going to be very difficult to advance past the first weekend of the tournament. It's time to break through. No one here is necessarily expecting a Final Four run, but we need to at least get to the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success.

I am more concerned with this team becoming good to first make the tournament and second good enough by the end of the year to be a team nobody once to play. We can talk about protected seeds but in reality it is more about having a good drawl. You can a deep run as a 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, and 12 if team is playing well enough.

Frist goal is beat UCLA. Second goal is win the conference. If those two things happen then UC's seed will no lower than six.
 
12-15-2017 05:05 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
[Image: OTwZBaFS.jpeg]
 
12-15-2017 08:06 PM
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RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketb...cid=espnTW

01/11/18 Update

UC a 4 seed (vs. William & Mary /Tennessee) in Boise
AAC 3 teams in (Houston in play in game , SMU first 4 out)
 
01-11-2018 09:38 AM
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rath v2.0 Offline
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RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
SMU looks like a team that will host a post season game. They have no game at the rim. Book is out. Run them off the 3 line and they are very average.

Larry Brown, come back...all is forgiven...
 
01-11-2018 09:59 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(01-11-2018 09:59 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  SMU looks like a team that will host a post season game. They have no game at the rim. Book is out. Run them off the 3 line and they are very average.

Larry Brown, come back...all is forgiven...

They miss the heck out of Semi Ojeleye and Ben Moore-- haven't found their replacements yet. Semi basically carried that team last year on his back in their three matchups against us.
 
01-11-2018 10:05 AM
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BearcatMan Offline
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RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
If we could get up to the 3-line and go back to Nashville that would be GREAT. Lots of positive ju-ju in Bridgestone Arena.

Personally, I'm sure Senior and I would be happy with Detroit too.
 
01-11-2018 10:11 AM
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geef Offline
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RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(01-11-2018 09:38 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketb...cid=espnTW

01/11/18 Update

UC a 4 seed (vs. William & Mary /Tennessee) in Boise
AAC 3 teams in (Houston in play in game , SMU first 4 out)

Jesus Christ. If we can't send UC to their home-away-from-home in Spokane, give 'em Boise!
 
01-11-2018 10:49 AM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #38
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(12-15-2017 04:03 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 03:12 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 12:52 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  We are in a dire place if we don't win tomorrow. Yes, I know we'll still make the tournament, but just making the tournament is well short of what this team's goals should be. This is the year we are supposed to break into a top 4 seed, and if we end up below the 6 line, it's going to be very difficult to advance past the first weekend of the tournament. It's time to break through. No one here is necessarily expecting a Final Four run, but we need to at least get to the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success.

Everyone on here was expecting an elite eight or final four run, a lot still do.

Mid-major league added a mid-major team in Wichita and people are expecting a top seed. Seriously? The league schedule itself will never allow it. Just like an undefeated UCF in football, no way they get close to the playoffs. Please see UofL discussion for reasons. Anyone up for coloring outside the lines?

Nothing screams Mid Major like being ranked #5
 
01-11-2018 12:36 PM
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geef Offline
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RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(01-11-2018 12:36 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 04:03 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 03:12 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 12:52 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  We are in a dire place if we don't win tomorrow. Yes, I know we'll still make the tournament, but just making the tournament is well short of what this team's goals should be. This is the year we are supposed to break into a top 4 seed, and if we end up below the 6 line, it's going to be very difficult to advance past the first weekend of the tournament. It's time to break through. No one here is necessarily expecting a Final Four run, but we need to at least get to the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success.

Everyone on here was expecting an elite eight or final four run, a lot still do.

Mid-major league added a mid-major team in Wichita and people are expecting a top seed. Seriously? The league schedule itself will never allow it. Just like an undefeated UCF in football, no way they get close to the playoffs. Please see UofL discussion for reasons. Anyone up for coloring outside the lines?

Nothing screams Mid Major like being ranked #5

I love when people use the term Mid-Major. It brings back lots of memories of the 90s. Wichita was a great addition.
 
01-11-2018 12:38 PM
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RealDeal Offline
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Post: #40
RE: ESPN Bracketology 12/15/17
(01-11-2018 12:38 PM)geef Wrote:  I love when people use the term Mid-Major. It brings back lots of memories of the 90s. Wichita was a great addition.

Last year a WCC team nearly won the tournament and no one would've considered it a big upset because Gonzaga is a high major program. Wichita is a high major program regardless of what conference they play in.
 
01-11-2018 02:11 PM
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