Just for comparison... UC gave up essentially identical points per possession on defense to Mississippi State and Coppin State. (.76 and .75)

BAM

Mark: 1
Board: 0

(12-14-2017 02:02 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 01:55 PM)Topkat Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 01:39 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 01:27 PM)Topkat Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 01:19 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  That's not helpful though unless you compare other teams defensive efficiency when they play Mississippi State, Xavier and Florida. Your taking 3 difficult games and comparing them to other teams in their last 3. Do you really think Duquense and NC-Greensboro are the first and second best defenses because of the last 3 games? You are adjusting UC for competition but not adjusting anyone else. Kenpom's numbers adjust everyone.

Obviously not, but I would bet you most power conference school schedules are more closely related than what occurs in November.

It's not hard to omit the Wis-Green Bays of the world from that 3 game stretch.

The schedules only correlate more for the power conferences once league play starts.

I've started clicking on teams going down the list and I don't agree at all.

Rutgers played: 12/07 NJIT W 73-64 Home 7-3 0-2
12/09 F Dickinson W 92-54 Home 8-3 0-2
12/12 Fordham W 75-63

Michigan State played:
12/03 Nebraska W 86-57 Home 7-1 1-0
12/05 Rutgers W 62-52 Away 8-1 2-0
12/09 S Utah W 88-63 Home

Texas A&M played
12/05 Arizona L 64-67 Neutral 7-1 0-0
12/09 Prairie View W 73-53 Home 8-1 0-0
12/13 Savannah St W 113-66 Home 9-1 0-0

Louisville played
12/06 Siena W 86-60 Home 5-2 0-0
12/09 Indiana W 71-62 Home 6-2 0-0
12/11 Bryant W 102-59 Home 7-2 0-0

Illinois played:
12/06 Austin Peay W 64-57 Home 7-3 0-2
12/09 UNLV L 82-89 Away 7-4 0-2
12/13 Longwood W 92-45 Home 8-4 0-2

Purdue played:
12/03 Northwestern W 74-69 Home 8-2 2-0
12/07 Valparaiso W 80-50 Home 9-2 2-0
12/10 IUPUI W 86-61 Home 10-2 2-0

Virginia played:
11/27 Wisconsin W 49-37 Home 7-0 0-0
12/02 Lehigh W 75-54 Home 8-0 0-0
12/05 W Virginia L 61-68 Away 8-1 0-0

Mississippi State played:
12/03 Dayton W 61-59 Home 7-0 0-0
12/09 North Georgia W 95-62 Home 8-0 0-0
12/12 Cincinnati L 50-65 Away 8-1 0-0

And that's just the top. Go down the list. You won't find a comparable last 3. Taking those 3 games in isolation and not comparing them to 3 similar games for the other teams in the list, tells you next to nothing. It's why you need adjusted efficiency numbers to get a better picture.

That's closer than using November games where our 5-10 players averaged 15-20 minutes per game while other teams opened in Classics and tourneys with Top 150 games, no matter how you adjust.

Its only going to correlate more when league play starts in January. I can filter out Nov or Nov/Dec in March.

No it's just not, but there's clearly no way to convince you of it. Illinois literally played the 3 kind of buy games UC was playing early. A&M played 2 of those. In 3 game sample sizes even 1 game against dramatically different competition will complete screw things up.

Again a system like kenpom adjusts for competition level. It adjusts for blowouts against bad teams (of which UC is not the only team to have those games). UC isn't some weird outlier every single season. From the stats projections UC's adjusted defense stayed almost the same in the 3 game stretch against tough competition as it did before it. It dropped against Xavier as UC had a down defensive game, but went up against Florida and Mississippi State(actually against Miss St. the UC defense had its best game of the year when adjusting for competition) as UC performed like you'd expect a top 5 defense to perform in those games.

The same thing happened to UC's defensive rating on the site I linked.

UC def ranked #1 prior to X game.
UC def ranked #5 after X game.
UC def ranked #4 after Fla game.
UC def ranked #2 after Miss St game.

If you prefer your adjustments, great.

Do you even know the formulas for the adjustments you are defending?

C"mon Mark, we both know the rpi is a more useful tool.

(12-14-2017 02:21 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  BAM

Mark: 1
Board: 0

Mark leading a seminar at the Probabilities and Statistics Enthusiasts Order of Pi Conference:

Mark teaching Astro-Physics Statistical Theory 300:

Mark's sponsored middle school's Future Statisticians Club:

(12-14-2017 02:06 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Just for comparison... UC gave up essentially identical points per possession on defense to Mississippi State and Coppin State. (.76 and .75)

I'm not sure what your point is here?

Our reserves played far more minutes against Coppin St than Miss St.

I would have to see your adjustment formulas and how they take into account a 10-11 man rotation vs. a 6-7 man rotation against an opponent.

That's why I say November is moot for a lot of games.

The thing about all this is kenpom isn't gospel. Adjusted offense or defense can't tell you everything, but they are about as good of an objective measure we have. It's reasonable to not think uc is the 14th best team right now or that their defense is closer to 15 them 4. It's crazy for me to read a bad, statistically problematic use of statistics to make the point. The number of people that sight statistics poorly and just seem to lack a basic understanding of why that use of statistics is problematic is sadly very high.

I guess the point is that neither site should be taken as gospel.

I could be convinced of ones statistical superiority if only I knew the constructs of the formulas they staunchly defend.

I think these constructs shall remain forever hidden... defended, but unknown.

(12-14-2017 03:34 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  The thing about all this is kenpom isn't gospel.

Whaaaaaat!?!?!?!?

(12-14-2017 06:03 PM)BeerCat Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 03:34 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  The thing about all this is kenpom isn't gospel.

Whaaaaaat!?!?!?!?

I already sent a message to Ken telling on Mark.

(12-14-2017 06:03 PM)BeerCat Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 03:34 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  The thing about all this is kenpom isn't gospel.

Whaaaaaat!?!?!?!?

Blasphemy, I tell you, Blasphemy !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(12-14-2017 02:40 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Mark teaching Astro-Physics Statistical Theory 300:

Marks new nickname- The Professor

Mark vs this board

#ownage

well done sir

Dilly Dilly!!

U guys are numbnuts. Stats are based on PROBABILITY. There’s always a chance u play like ****. UC has a good defense. We just totally choked aganst X and Florida. The stats are high for choking in March as well. Hopefully we beat the probabilities this year.