(11-29-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Look, Trump is a full fledged White Nationalist and racist and heading into Nazi territory. There's no extended logic needed here.

There's no basic logic in your comment. Triggered much?

(11-29-2017 11:34 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Look, Trump is a full fledged White Nationalist and racist and heading into Nazi territory. There's no extended logic needed here.

He's going to drag the Republican Party off a damn cliff. Already, 52 percent of Americans are 'strongly opposed' to Trump. Another 10 to 12 percent are opposed.

Once you get to 'strongly opposed', you don't get those voters back.

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Meanwhile, he's p*ssed away

1) 90% of African American voters
2) 80% of Hispanic voters
3) 85% of LGBT voters
4) 55% of women voters

And an increasing number of white voters who are educated.

Its going to take a LOT to get those voters back.

And Trump's strong support is falling too. That's potentially a problem.

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I think Roy Moore wins on Dec 12. And Trump gets his idiotic giveaway plan through. But after that, its all downhill for him. The oligarchs/business wing will have gotten what they wanted from him. They'res no reason for them to support him anymore.

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And Trump is becoming increasingly unstable in other areas too. He's now claiming that the Access Hollywood tape is fake. He's starting up on the racist Obama birther stuff again.

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I'm beginning to think that the Dems have a shot of taking over the chamber like they did in 2001, with fed up moderate Senators walking the aisle to the Dems.

Just for the sake of argument let's just assume your statements are correct.

So you're saying that Trump will drag the GOP off a cliff... to join the Democrats?

Yes, I think that those strongly opposed to Trump will, largely be going to the Dems. And the disaffected whites will just go back into their non-voting status.

The GOP's gerrymandered majority relies on a few elements

1) Depressed turnout by Democratic leaning minority groups. Trump is not helping
2) Legacy voting by Reagan era Republicans, many of whom are not social conservatives or racists
3) The tacit support of RINO's, who simply look at party label over their views, many of which are more aligned with the Democrats.

And when it works perfectly for them, they still only get to around a 3-7% loss in voting.

And demographics are not on their side. Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million last time. Due to the differential in voting age, about 1 million more Trump voters than Dem voters will not be alive by the next election. Due to demographics of younger voters, the Dems will gain another 1 million over the GOP by the next presidential election.

And that's before the GOP leaks off the RINO's, educated whites, and greater shares of minority groups.

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In the past, the GOP could count on picking up Dem voters as they age. I don't think that's going to happen. These voters will still be educated, will still be minorities, and Trump isn't acting like an adult anyway.

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As far as creating a 'third party for Trumpism/white nationalism', all that's going to do is to put the Dems in power. The Dems have a floor, based upon minority voting, higher than the Trumpian bloc.

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Oh and about gerrymandering. The Dems need to get a 7% margin in House elections to gain a 1 seat majority. But because of the way the gerrymandering works, if the Dems can get to 10 or 12 percent margin, they gain extra seats than they would over non-gerrymandered seats at that margin. A 12 percent margin would wipe out the GOP, causing the Dems to gain 75 seats.

(11-29-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  He's going to drag the Republican Party off a damn cliff

(11-29-2017 11:51 AM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  He's going to drag the Republican Party off a damn cliff

Trump isn't bringing down the Republican Party, he is recreating it.

The Republicans were close to bridging the gap with Bush when it came to minorities. Let's face it, the elephant in the room is that Republicans, despite their policies cannot get minority votes. Bush Jr. however made a lot of head way in that regard.

Trump however has turned the Republican Party 180 degrees in the other direction.

They are no longer attempting to appeal to minorities, they are in fact saying the heck with it, not only will we stop attempting to appeal to minorities, we will actively campaign against their interests.

(11-29-2017 11:56 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:51 AM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  He's going to drag the Republican Party off a damn cliff

Trump isn't bringing down the Republican Party, he is recreating it.

The Republicans were close to bridging the gap with Bush when it came to minorities. Let's face it, the elephant in the room is that Republicans, despite their policies cannot get minority votes. Bush Jr. however made a lot of head way in that regard.

Trump however has turned the Republican Party 180 degrees in the other direction.

They are no longer attempting to appeal to minorities, they are in fact saying the heck with it, not only will we stop attempting to appeal to minorities, we will actively campaign against their interests.

If by "appealing to minorities" you mean unfettered illegal immigration and taking in tens of thousands of unvetted Muslim refugee, then you would be correct.

(11-29-2017 11:56 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Trump isn't bringing down the Republican Party, he is recreating it.

No, he's not... He's a blip created by two things (1) People tiring of the entrenched political orthodoxy and (2) 20 years of the left using political correctness and "social justice" as a weapon.

I'm not convinced Trump runs next time. I think his ego has been stroked and he will get a lot of his agenda completed by 2020 if the GOP holds the house and senate. Eventually the never trumps will have to accept him.

Quote:The Republicans were close to bridging the gap with Bush when it came to minorities.

Umm no, they we really were not. They did a bit better but how did that benefit McCain or Romney? Mitt's not racist but the left hung it on him.

Fun fact, Trump did better with Latino's (29%/27%), Asians(29%/27%), and African Americans(8%/6%) then Romney did!

Quote:Let's face it, the elephant in the room is that Republicans, despite their policies cannot get minority votes.

I don't disagree... Their is a stigma, there has been a stigma for 50 years. And it's entirely undeserved. It turns out LBJ was right. He was racist as the day is long but he knew if he signed the civil rights legislation that the republicans had been pushing for 15 years, that he could entrench the image of the dems as "your helpers".

Quote:They are no longer attempting to appeal to minorities

How did McCain do? how did Romney do? the 2004 election had no sticking power and was due I think more to Kerry running a terrible campaign.

Quote:they are in fact saying the heck with it, not only will we stop attempting to appeal to minorities, we will actively campaign against their interests.

They are saying we will let our results speak for themselves, and trying to treat minorities the same way they treat white voters. Not like children that need mother government to tell them what to do.

I laugh at people who post their hopes as fact.

(11-29-2017 11:56 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  They are no longer attempting to appeal to minorities,

Whelp, that's what happens when libreals refer to all Republicans as nazis.

I'm done fighting it. If I can see a party of all old white guys getting what we what - legal immigration, lower taxes, less government - then I'm more than happy to let identity politics roil only the Democrats.

White people account for about 70% of the electorate. Much more in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Most of the states with larger black populations are in the deep south where the still majority white vote is about as republican as the black vote is democrat. Demographics don't help the anti-white democrats in any of the swing states except perhaps Virginia (I agree that one is lost) and Florida (offset by whites moving further right).

Identity politics is the democrats worst nightmare.

(11-29-2017 12:15 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Identity politics is the democrats worst nightmare.

but MUH LBGTQRSTUVWXYZ!

(11-29-2017 12:11 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:56 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  They are no longer attempting to appeal to minorities,

Whelp, that's what happens when libreals refer to all Republicans as nazis.

I'm done fighting it. If I can see a party of all old white guys getting what we what - legal immigration, lower taxes, less government - then I'm more than happy to let identity politics roil only the Democrats.

this should definitely get him impeached...

(11-29-2017 12:15 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Identity politics is the democrats worst nightmare.

For years, Democrats encouraged identity politics but are now surprised that socially and economically disenfranchised white people are are voting as a bloc..... weird, huh?

Liberals are going to hate that the new rules, which are really just the old rules they've long pushed, are now being applied to them.

Heed my words, liberals. Also, I am available for hire as a political consultant.

(11-29-2017 12:11 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:56 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  They are no longer attempting to appeal to minorities,

Whelp, that's what happens when libreals refer to all Republicans as nazis.

I'm done fighting it. If I can see a party of all old white guys getting what we what - legal immigration, lower taxes, less government - then I'm more than happy to let identity politics roil only the Democrats.

And there it is again. The obligator blame the liberals excuse.

For someone who seems to believe in the old "pull yourself up by the boot straps" saying, you should play the blame game alot.

(11-29-2017 12:25 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  And there it is again. The obligator blame the liberals excuse.

There is some truth to it though fit. For a generation schools and universities have told white kids that they are the problem in the world. That they owned blood guilt for slavery and that their accomplishments were not valid.

The left has encouraged racial tribalism whenever they had the opportunity. So now, for the first time in a generation, white's are starting to vote more tribal. It's how Hillary lot White Women.

Republicans control the White House, both houses of Congress, the majority of Governorships and the majority of state legislatures. Why exactly do we need to change our strategy?

(11-29-2017 11:56 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:51 AM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  He's going to drag the Republican Party off a damn cliff

Trump isn't bringing down the Republican Party, he is recreating it.

The Republicans were close to bridging the gap with Bush when it came to minorities. Let's face it, the elephant in the room is that Republicans, despite their policies cannot get minority votes. Bush Jr. however made a lot of head way in that regard.

Trump however has turned the Republican Party 180 degrees in the other direction.

They are no longer attempting to appeal to minorities, they are in fact saying the heck with it, not only will we stop attempting to appeal to minorities, we will actively campaign against their interests.

In an American where whites are a minority, and will become increasingly so, that's going to be a problem. They already get a minority of votes. At some point, gerrymandering becomes impossible because the math stops working.

The other problem is that the GOP has wrung every last vote they can get. And it was only enough (barely) to cobble together a gerrymandered EC victory. The real problem the GOP has going forward isn't that Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Penn (although that one will be coming back to us - along with Michigan) are turning more GOP, but that demographics will start to make Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada impossible for the GOP moving forward. Watch out for demographic changes in North Carolina and Texas too (although I think that's still further away)

In the past, the GOP tried to do the Illeana Ros-Lehtinen plan to placate minority districts and to have a bench of minority GOP officials that actually have some support in the minority communities (people like Ted Cruz or Tim Scott or Mia Love really aren't big pulls for minority voters). You're right...the GOP is going full white nationalist.

Trump hasn't gained any votes since he lost the last popular vote by 3 million. His only hope is to try to split the anti-Trump vote.
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Trump might hold onto the House and the Senate by 1 or 2 seats in each chamber (while losing the raw vote for each chamber) in 2018. But that would be even worse for them in many respects because it will set up the Dems for a complete and massive takeover in 2020. Remember, the Trump tax cuts (raises for everyone but the very rich) will have been implemented, he will have destroyed Obamacare - and with it - our entire health care system, he will probably have f-ed up something overseas, and he will have no one to blame but himself.

Its over by 2020.

The biggest skill in politics is the ability to count. Trump and his white nationalist supporters cannot do that. Unless they simply want to make voting for whites only.

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Trump is going to bring down the Republican party.

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BTW, can the GOP imagine how great things would be for them had Hillary won? They'd be looking at getting your 2/3rds of statehouses for constitutional amendments. And 60 Seats in the Senate. Now, its possible that the liberal Republicans or Democrats will control 31 governorships by January 2019. You will lose the House in 2018. You will lose the Senate by 2020 and you're going to lose the Presidency by 2020 as well. And with all those liberal governors coming into office, and a Democratic DOJ, you can kiss much of that gerrymandering goodbye in 2022 (Remember, the GOP 'majority' in Congress was built off of gerrymanders resulting from off year out of power GOP gains in 1998 and 2010. This time, the critical election will be 2018. An awful scenario for you guys.

Even before the end of GOP gerrymandering in 2022, there's going to be a Dem President, a Dem majority in the House of 20 or so seats and a Dem majority in the Senate of 3-5 seats. With an end to much of the GOP gerrymander and the 2022 cycle coming up in the Senate, there will be little, if any backlash against the Dems in that off year election. Also, 6 more years of Dem favorable demographic changes will develop.

The problem the GOP has is this....what Trump is doing is going to leave a huge mark. Obama won due to 'turnout' and 'winning independents'. The GOP is going to lose 'turnout' and 'independents' going forward, but even worse they're starting to bleed out their core base too. The RINO's and the chamber of commerce Republicans are fed up. They'll leave slowly, but you can't afford to lose any of them.

And there's no place for the GOP to gain new voters. None.

(11-29-2017 12:25 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  For someone who seems to believe in the old "pull yourself up by the boot straps" saying, you should play the blame game alot.

As I said, you're going to hate the new rules. Which are just the old rules you played against conservatives since 1960.

You made the bed, I am laying in it. It's quite comfortable!

(11-29-2017 12:38 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:56 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:51 AM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  He's going to drag the Republican Party off a damn cliff

Trump isn't bringing down the Republican Party, he is recreating it.

The Republicans were close to bridging the gap with Bush when it came to minorities. Let's face it, the elephant in the room is that Republicans, despite their policies cannot get minority votes. Bush Jr. however made a lot of head way in that regard.

Trump however has turned the Republican Party 180 degrees in the other direction.

They are no longer attempting to appeal to minorities, they are in fact saying the heck with it, not only will we stop attempting to appeal to minorities, we will actively campaign against their interests.

In an American where whites are a minority, and will become increasingly so, that's going to be a problem. They already get a minority of votes. At some point, gerrymandering becomes impossible because the math stops working.

The other problem is that the GOP has wrung every last vote they can get. And it was only enough (barely) to cobble together a gerrymandered EC victory. The real problem the GOP has going forward isn't that Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Penn (although that one will be coming back to us - along with Michigan) are turning more GOP, but that demographics will start to make Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada impossible for the GOP moving forward. Watch out for demographic changes in North Carolina and Texas too (although I think that's still further away)

In the past, the GOP tried to do the Illeana Ros-Lehtinen plan to placate minority districts and to have a bench of minority GOP officials that actually have some support in the minority communities (people like Ted Cruz or Tim Scott or Mia Love really aren't big pulls for minority voters). You're right...the GOP is going full white nationalist.

Trump hasn't gained any votes since he lost the last popular vote by 3 million. His only hope is to try to split the anti-Trump vote.
---

Trump might hold onto the House and the Senate by 1 or 2 seats in each chamber (while losing the raw vote for each chamber) in 2018. But that would be even worse for them in many respects because it will set up the Dems for a complete and massive takeover in 2020. Remember, the Trump tax cuts (raises for everyone but the very rich) will have been implemented, he will have destroyed Obamacare - and with it - our entire health care system, he will probably have f-ed up something overseas, and he will have no one to blame but himself.

Its over by 2020.

The biggest skill in politics is the ability to count. Trump and his white nationalist supporters cannot do that. Unless they simply want to make voting for whites only.

----

Trump is going to bring down the Republican party.

----

BTW, can the GOP imagine how great things would be for them had Hillary won? They'd be looking at getting your 2/3rds of statehouses for constitutional amendments. And 60 Seats in the Senate. Now, its possible that the liberal Republicans or Democrats will control 31 governorships by January 2019. You will lose the House in 2018. You will lose the Senate by 2020 and you're going to lose the Presidency by 2020 as well. And with all those liberal governors coming into office, and a Democratic DOJ, you can kiss much of that gerrymandering goodbye in 2022 (Remember, the GOP 'majority' in Congress was built off of gerrymanders resulting from off year out of power GOP gains in 1998 and 2010. This time, the critical election will be 2018. An awful scenario for you guys.

Even before the end of GOP gerrymandering in 2022, there's going to be a Dem President, a Dem majority in the House of 20 or so seats and a Dem majority in the Senate of 3-5 seats. With an end to much of the GOP gerrymander and the 2022 cycle coming up in the Senate, there will be little, if any backlash against the Dems in that off year election. Also, 6 more years of Dem favorable demographic changes will develop.

The problem the GOP has is this....what Trump is doing is going to leave a huge mark. Obama won due to 'turnout' and 'winning independents'. The GOP is going to lose 'turnout' and 'independents' going forward, but even worse they're starting to bleed out their core base too. The RINO's and the chamber of commerce Republicans are fed up. They'll leave slowly, but you can't afford to lose any of them.

And there's no place for the GOP to gain new voters. None.

You are simply wrong. The silent backlash against the complete idiocy of the last eight years continues. Wait and watch.

(11-29-2017 11:06 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  For people to realize that this buffoon isn't acting presidential.

I think almost everybody sees that.

Quote:He's doing long term damage to our country with his antics.

This on the other hand is not actually happening.