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OoC SoS Forecasts
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HuskyU Offline
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Post: #141
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
(12-26-2017 09:15 PM)Windiwu Wrote:  Cinncinati only plays 16 games in conference instead of 18 like the rest of the teams?

UCONN will be kicked out of the conference before Cincinnati has to play them.
12-26-2017 09:17 PM
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zdiddy513 Offline
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Post: #142
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
(12-26-2017 01:40 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  I would hope not. I don't think we are in any position to turn down a series offer from Providence or St. John's unless it is just not logistically possible for the years/dates they are requesting.

I seem to remember McCronin saying he won't schedule the big east teams anymore (except Xavier) after the butler series because of the refs lol
12-26-2017 10:22 PM
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Bearcats#1 Offline
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Post: #143
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
(12-26-2017 09:15 PM)Windiwu Wrote:  Cinncinati only plays 16 games in conference instead of 18 like the rest of the teams?

Yup, this is how we avoid the rpi drags at the bottom.
12-27-2017 10:20 AM
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stxrunner Offline
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Post: #144
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
Since we had a monthly update in December, I thought it would be worth another look.

(12-24-2017 01:29 PM)AndShock Wrote:  
(11-28-2017 03:30 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  Doing the math, I'm not sure your numbers are accurate. UC is at 284 now playing already the worst of their schedule, with 4 straight Top 50 opponents to come. Hard to see how that only jumps them up 14 spots in SoS.

Wrong.

You sure about that boss?

UC's OOC SoS is now at 172.

So when I said this...

(11-28-2017 03:52 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  I know you are using a projection model, but I'd question the assumptions there.

Sounds like I knew what I was talking about after all. UC's OOC was never going to be 'good', but I believe UC set out to make it not awful as a stop gap for this year, and it looks like it's going to be successful at least.
01-23-2018 12:29 PM
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STL_Wave Offline
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Post: #145
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
(12-26-2017 01:01 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  
(12-26-2017 12:56 PM)Huskypride Wrote:  
(12-25-2017 02:42 PM)kyucat Wrote:  It’s easy to critize Cincy for scheduling buy games but on the flip side many teams won’t play UC home and home or play UC at all do the risk they lose. Example UK Indiana, Notre Dame, WVU, Illinois, Tennessee, Vandy which are all regional schools refuse to schedule. Add all Big 12 Schools, have been asked but won’t play UC in Cincinnati or at all. So if any of you can get Kansas or Syracuse to play home and home I sure Mick will do it.


Why would WVU and Cuse not wanna play cincy?? Yall are a big name?


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Cincinnati and WVU will never schedule a series as long as Bob Huggins is there. Every time we played them in the Big East, it dragged up a lot of old BS that neither of our coaches care to deal with. Cronin has put it out there publicly that he wants to renew the Louisville series, but Pitino always dodged him despite their relationship. Hopefully that changes now with Pitino gone. We are starting a home-and-home with Ohio State next year now that they finally have a coach who is willing to schedule us. We also played a home-and-home with Butler a few years back, which is less than two hours away. I wish we would have kept that one going, as I think it was beneficial for both schools.

Pretty interesting/****** that TV realignment has made that you have to play your close schools OOC and far flung, cross country games in conference. Used to be the opposite.

Just an observation.
01-23-2018 12:46 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #146
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
It's still projected to be at 208. Not great, but not awful either.

Only problem is compared to who they're up against-
Nova- 50
Purdue-88
Virginia-68
Duke-11
Kansas-16
Mich St-204
UNC-7
Xavier-30
West Virginia-220
Oklahoma-115
Clemson-39
Ohio St-38
Auburn-84
Texas Tech-224
Arizona-55

so only 2 that Cincy is better than are West Virginia and Texas Tech. Those 3 and Oklahoma, and Mich St are the only 5 that are outside the top 100. And the 3 with the insane Big 12 all have top 40 overall projected SOS(Cincy is at 71).
01-23-2018 12:48 PM
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stxrunner Offline
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Post: #147
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
(01-23-2018 12:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's still projected to be at 208. Not great, but not awful either.

Only problem is compared to who they're up against-
Nova- 50
Purdue-88
Virginia-68
Duke-11
Kansas-16
Mich St-204
UNC-7
Xavier-30
West Virginia-220
Oklahoma-115
Clemson-39
Ohio St-38
Auburn-84
Texas Tech-224
Arizona-55

so only 2 that Cincy is better than are West Virginia and Texas Tech. Those 3 and Oklahoma, and Mich St are the only 5 that are outside the top 100. And the 3 with the insane Big 12 all have top 40 overall projected SOS(Cincy is at 71).

I can appreciate that these are just projections, but with my comment I was pointing out I wasn't sure about the system that is used to predict these. Considering our number has swung 100 spots in less than a month, I think that concern is valid.

We'll see where it shakes out at the end of the year. It's going to hurt UC a little, but I'm not sure it will mean more than a spot or two on the s curve.
01-23-2018 01:39 PM
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payday Offline
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Post: #148
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
#8 coaches, #9 AP, #6 Kenpom, #23 RPI. Wow! I didn’t realize Cincy’s OOC SOS had such a deleterious effect!
01-23-2018 02:42 PM
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AndShock Offline
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Post: #149
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
(11-29-2017 04:00 PM)AndShock Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 03:55 PM)CornellCoog Wrote:  here's why using the RPI is stupid this early in the season.

Houston rose 35 places overnight despite not playing. Why? Because Wake Forest beat Illinois.

I'm not using RPI I'm using projections. Which had Wake Forest projected to beat Illinois. Which means that RPI bump was already factored in.

Once again, forgetting the meaning of the words "current" and "projected."

And before you say projections can be wrong, I understand that. But KU isn't losing every game the rest of the season. East Carolina isn't going undefeated. Houston is finishing with a bad OoC SoS. Wichita State is finishing with a good OoC SoS. That is my freaking point. We have enough data to make reasonable assumptions about where teams and numbers are going to end up. Your projected SoS is not going to change 200+ spots throughout the course of the season.

62 spots is a reasonable estimation imo. If you were expecting it to be within 10 spots or so then that’s on you.
01-23-2018 03:19 PM
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PonyHoopsFan85 Offline
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Post: #150
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
(01-23-2018 02:42 PM)payday Wrote:  #8 coaches, #9 AP, #6 Kenpom, #23 RPI. Wow! I didn’t realize Cincy’s OOC SOS had such a deleterious effect!

Well it can be harmful come selection time. Can't complain if you get a 5-seed when you are top 10 in KenPom when your SOS isn't there (lowest of Top 40 teams in the RPI). It hurts that UCLA has really under-performed.

I think UC deserves at least a top 4 seed, but unless they go 16-2 in conference again they are going to have a tough time, because of OOC SOS/Wins, as we saw last season.
(This post was last modified: 01-23-2018 04:57 PM by PonyHoopsFan85.)
01-23-2018 04:53 PM
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ShockerFever Offline
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Post: #151
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
(01-23-2018 02:42 PM)payday Wrote:  #8 coaches, #9 AP, #6 Kenpom, #23 RPI. Wow! I didn’t realize Cincy’s OOC SOS had such a deleterious effect!

Weren’t you the one making fun of WSU’s AP poll ranks a week or two ago?

Funny how that’s changed.
01-23-2018 04:56 PM
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stxrunner Offline
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Post: #152
RE: OoC SoS Forecasts
(01-23-2018 04:56 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  
(01-23-2018 02:42 PM)payday Wrote:  #8 coaches, #9 AP, #6 Kenpom, #23 RPI. Wow! I didn’t realize Cincy’s OOC SOS had such a deleterious effect!

Weren’t you the one making fun of WSU’s AP poll ranks a week or two ago?

Funny how that’s changed.

Lol. He sets himself up for some of this.
01-23-2018 10:38 PM
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