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U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
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stinkfist Online
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Post: #21
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-15-2017 06:00 PM)bullet Wrote:  Lower value of the US $ isn't necessarily a bad thing.

maintaining consistent value during short term peaks and valleys is critical....I get the the consumer side relative to short term devaluation....most people aren't savvy that way.....

the 401k could be the greatest financial/capitalist scheme ever devised that now basically protects the USD......

****'s gonna hit the fan one day......I can only hope I'm dead long before that.....
11-15-2017 06:11 PM
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UofMstateU Offline
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Post: #22
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-15-2017 05:28 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  trading range of 92-102 since 2015

What's the problem?



Hint.... It was 70-90 between 2008 and 2015, hence the abbreviated chart... lol...

You guys are SOOOOOOO transparent.

I had a feeling that was the case, I just havent had time to look it up. 04-cheers
11-15-2017 11:32 PM
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Post: #23
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
Dollar doesn't need be too strong. I think the fact that it's weakened is actually a good thing as it signifies that the global economy is performing better, etc.
11-16-2017 09:08 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
I don't disagree and wasn't saying that.... I was merely responding to the claim about a 'problem' and then the obvious snip job (much as they did with the economy during Obama's Presidency.

The WORST that could be said about the chart is that it appears that Trump's election caused a huge run up that has now been mostly retraced. We can certainly discuss 'why', but I don't think many people on here are qualified to have that discussion.

A few, but not many
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2017 02:50 PM by Hambone10.)
11-16-2017 02:49 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #25
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-16-2017 02:49 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I don't disagree and wasn't saying that.... I was merely responding to the claim about a 'problem' and then the obvious snip job (much as they did with the economy during Obama's Presidency.

The WORST that could be said about the chart is that it appears that Trump's election caused a huge run up that has now been mostly retraced. We can certainly discuss 'why', but I don't think many people on here are qualified to have that discussion.

A few, but not many

If you're talking to me, I clearly said it could be a problem going forward...mainly if they R's can't get a tax cut through...as weakened dollars are often followed by recessions.
Opinion - The Weak Dollar Caused the Great Recession
11-16-2017 04:00 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-16-2017 04:00 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(11-16-2017 02:49 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I don't disagree and wasn't saying that.... I was merely responding to the claim about a 'problem' and then the obvious snip job (much as they did with the economy during Obama's Presidency.

The WORST that could be said about the chart is that it appears that Trump's election caused a huge run up that has now been mostly retraced. We can certainly discuss 'why', but I don't think many people on here are qualified to have that discussion.

A few, but not many

If you're talking to me, I clearly said it could be a problem going forward...mainly if they R's can't get a tax cut through...as weakened dollars are often followed by recessions.
Opinion - The Weak Dollar Caused the Great Recession

You presented an intentionally timed snippet (since you spoke about 2017 but included the chart back to 2016, but not before) that over-dramatizes the reality... and then you provide an opinion piece I believe written in 2012 mostly about when we were on a gold-standard that admits that it is going against the common beliefs held by respected economists and investment professional... so to quote you, 'Apropos of nothing'

Since we're still above the trend, I think a far more appropriate way of looking at things is that people thought Trump would be far more isolationist/protectionist than he has turned out to be. Whether you want to credit him, the right or the left doesn't matter... the 'fears' of Trump have by and large turned into a nothing-burger.

As others have said, a strong dollar in and of itself can mean all sorts of things.... some good and some bad. You have to look at other measures in concert to draw any meaningful conclusions.


The OP is essentially like someone saying "I grew 6 inches last year' and someone concerned about a problem because one person who grew 6 inches in a year got cancer.
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2017 05:47 PM by Hambone10.)
11-16-2017 05:45 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #27
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-16-2017 05:45 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(11-16-2017 04:00 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(11-16-2017 02:49 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I don't disagree and wasn't saying that.... I was merely responding to the claim about a 'problem' and then the obvious snip job (much as they did with the economy during Obama's Presidency.

The WORST that could be said about the chart is that it appears that Trump's election caused a huge run up that has now been mostly retraced. We can certainly discuss 'why', but I don't think many people on here are qualified to have that discussion.

A few, but not many

If you're talking to me, I clearly said it could be a problem going forward...mainly if they R's can't get a tax cut through...as weakened dollars are often followed by recessions.
Opinion - The Weak Dollar Caused the Great Recession

You presented an intentionally timed snippet (since you spoke about 2017 but included the chart back to 2016, but not before) that over-dramatizes the reality... and then you provide an opinion piece I believe written in 2012 mostly about when we were on a gold-standard that admits that it is going against the common beliefs held by respected economists and investment professional... so to quote you, 'Apropos of nothing'

Since we're still above the trend, I think a far more appropriate way of looking at things is that people thought Trump would be far more isolationist/protectionist than he has turned out to be. Whether you want to credit him, the right or the left doesn't matter... the 'fears' of Trump have by and large turned into a nothing-burger.

As others have said, a strong dollar in and of itself can mean all sorts of things.... some good and some bad. You have to look at other measures in concert to draw any meaningful conclusions.


The OP is essentially like someone saying "I grew 6 inches last year' and someone concerned about a problem because one person who grew 6 inches in a year got cancer.

Dude, I only presented the stuff in the article from September which was the most recent stuff I found on it. I was not "intentionally" making any statement. I found the article interesting as it's not something usually discussed and that other might also find it an interesting topic, that's all.
11-17-2017 09:09 AM
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miko33 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-17-2017 09:09 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(11-16-2017 05:45 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(11-16-2017 04:00 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(11-16-2017 02:49 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I don't disagree and wasn't saying that.... I was merely responding to the claim about a 'problem' and then the obvious snip job (much as they did with the economy during Obama's Presidency.

The WORST that could be said about the chart is that it appears that Trump's election caused a huge run up that has now been mostly retraced. We can certainly discuss 'why', but I don't think many people on here are qualified to have that discussion.

A few, but not many

If you're talking to me, I clearly said it could be a problem going forward...mainly if they R's can't get a tax cut through...as weakened dollars are often followed by recessions.
Opinion - The Weak Dollar Caused the Great Recession

You presented an intentionally timed snippet (since you spoke about 2017 but included the chart back to 2016, but not before) that over-dramatizes the reality... and then you provide an opinion piece I believe written in 2012 mostly about when we were on a gold-standard that admits that it is going against the common beliefs held by respected economists and investment professional... so to quote you, 'Apropos of nothing'

Since we're still above the trend, I think a far more appropriate way of looking at things is that people thought Trump would be far more isolationist/protectionist than he has turned out to be. Whether you want to credit him, the right or the left doesn't matter... the 'fears' of Trump have by and large turned into a nothing-burger.

As others have said, a strong dollar in and of itself can mean all sorts of things.... some good and some bad. You have to look at other measures in concert to draw any meaningful conclusions.


The OP is essentially like someone saying "I grew 6 inches last year' and someone concerned about a problem because one person who grew 6 inches in a year got cancer.

Dude, I only presented the stuff in the article from September which was the most recent stuff I found on it. I was not "intentionally" making any statement. I found the article interesting as it's not something usually discussed and that other might also find it an interesting topic, that's all.

Kudos for bringing up a topic that is way more important than the sideshows we see cloaked as news. Interestingly enough, the dollar is NOT an ignored issue by people working in the gov't - just on this board.

Ironically, economics has largely become an ignored orphan on this board. Economics is by far the most important reason for why Trump will (or won't) get reelected. It's still the economy...stupid (quoting Carville).
11-17-2017 09:28 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-17-2017 09:28 AM)miko33 Wrote:  
(11-17-2017 09:09 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(11-16-2017 05:45 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(11-16-2017 04:00 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(11-16-2017 02:49 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I don't disagree and wasn't saying that.... I was merely responding to the claim about a 'problem' and then the obvious snip job (much as they did with the economy during Obama's Presidency.

The WORST that could be said about the chart is that it appears that Trump's election caused a huge run up that has now been mostly retraced. We can certainly discuss 'why', but I don't think many people on here are qualified to have that discussion.

A few, but not many

If you're talking to me, I clearly said it could be a problem going forward...mainly if they R's can't get a tax cut through...as weakened dollars are often followed by recessions.
Opinion - The Weak Dollar Caused the Great Recession

You presented an intentionally timed snippet (since you spoke about 2017 but included the chart back to 2016, but not before) that over-dramatizes the reality... and then you provide an opinion piece I believe written in 2012 mostly about when we were on a gold-standard that admits that it is going against the common beliefs held by respected economists and investment professional... so to quote you, 'Apropos of nothing'

Since we're still above the trend, I think a far more appropriate way of looking at things is that people thought Trump would be far more isolationist/protectionist than he has turned out to be. Whether you want to credit him, the right or the left doesn't matter... the 'fears' of Trump have by and large turned into a nothing-burger.

As others have said, a strong dollar in and of itself can mean all sorts of things.... some good and some bad. You have to look at other measures in concert to draw any meaningful conclusions.


The OP is essentially like someone saying "I grew 6 inches last year' and someone concerned about a problem because one person who grew 6 inches in a year got cancer.

Dude, I only presented the stuff in the article from September which was the most recent stuff I found on it. I was not "intentionally" making any statement. I found the article interesting as it's not something usually discussed and that other might also find it an interesting topic, that's all.

Kudos for bringing up a topic that is way more important than the sideshows we see cloaked as news. Interestingly enough, the dollar is NOT an ignored issue by people working in the gov't - just on this board.

Ironically, economics has largely become an ignored orphan on this board. Economics is by far the most important reason for why Trump will (or won't) get reelected. It's still the economy...stupid (quoting Carville).

Agree with this....

But Tom, I didn't accuse you of the snippet. I said you presented an intentionally timed snippet.... and then noted that you spoke of 2017, and the chart compares it to 2016 (to create the 'problem') and then proceeds to mostly talk about when we were on the gold standard and then his opinion about 2008... which is (to me anyway) a transparent attempt to claim a 'problem' without actually looking at meaningful periods and data... not you... the author.

People who really understand and know this stuff are often compromised by people (like it seems this author) who know how to manipulate the data in order to 'sell' it for a variety of purposes... whether or not they really understand it is somewhat immaterial.

People like me who spent a long time in this industry know to be wary of 'academic' or 'political' articles like this one.... whether or not we are experts... but most people do not. The FIRST THINGS I thought of when looking at the chart which shows a run up and a run down are....
Where is the long term support line?
What was the trend BEFORE this period
What were the factors DURING this period

there are others, but those are the big ones
(This post was last modified: 11-17-2017 02:47 PM by Hambone10.)
11-17-2017 02:41 PM
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Post: #30
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
FWIW - I posted the image from the article. Nothing more.
11-17-2017 03:16 PM
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Post: #31
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
[Image: historical.png?s=DXY&v=201711172...2=20171231]

Going back 10 years...
11-17-2017 03:27 PM
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Post: #32
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-17-2017 03:27 PM)Chappy Wrote:  [Image: historical.png?s=DXY&v=201711172...2=20171231]

Going back 10 years...

good chart....

I was never a technical analyst, but if you draw lines between the bottoms in 08,12 and 15 (or so)... and then draw tops in 09 and 11, it seems that there may be a convergence somewhere around 88 and I'd expect there to be SIGNIFICANT support around there.... eyeballing it, I'd probably be a buyer at around 89 and selling on a stop around 87 and short around 86 looking to cover it around 80

Probably also a buyer around 96 and sell it at 104 (but not go short), trading the range inside.

Of course you also have to consider non-technical actions like tax policy and elections and threats of war etc as impetus to move out of these ranges
(This post was last modified: 11-17-2017 03:44 PM by Hambone10.)
11-17-2017 03:43 PM
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Post: #33
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
Why is it you never see this sort of thing from the left when a Democrat is an office? If you posted that when ya boy Obama was racking up record deficits and record debt totals amid ****** stagflation and a weak dollar I'd be the first to cheer you right now. Maybe you did and you can joyously prove me wrong. But I doubt you did. And so while this post is soooooooo close to being meaningful, I can't shake the feeling that it is really a nice wallpaper placed over partisanship.
11-17-2017 07:12 PM
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Post: #34
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-17-2017 07:12 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Why is it you never see this sort of thing from the left when a Democrat is an office? If you posted that when ya boy Obama was racking up record deficits and record debt totals amid ****** stagflation and a weak dollar I'd be the first to cheer you right now. Maybe you did and you can joyously prove me wrong. But I doubt you did. And so while this post is soooooooo close to being meaningful, I can't shake the feeling that it is really a nice wallpaper placed over partisanship.

alex, I'll take "who is/should be in prison" for $2k
11-17-2017 07:25 PM
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miko33 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-17-2017 07:12 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Why is it you never see this sort of thing from the left when a Democrat is an office? If you posted that when ya boy Obama was racking up record deficits and record debt totals amid ****** stagflation and a weak dollar I'd be the first to cheer you right now. Maybe you did and you can joyously prove me wrong. But I doubt you did. And so while this post is soooooooo close to being meaningful, I can't shake the feeling that it is really a nice wallpaper placed over partisanship.

That goes right along with politicians caring about the debt and deficits whenever they are in the minority party yet forget all of that when they win majorities.
11-17-2017 07:25 PM
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Post: #36
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-17-2017 07:25 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(11-17-2017 07:12 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Why is it you never see this sort of thing from the left when a Democrat is an office? If you posted that when ya boy Obama was racking up record deficits and record debt totals amid ****** stagflation and a weak dollar I'd be the first to cheer you right now. Maybe you did and you can joyously prove me wrong. But I doubt you did. And so while this post is soooooooo close to being meaningful, I can't shake the feeling that it is really a nice wallpaper placed over partisanship.

That goes right along with politicians caring about the debt and deficits whenever they are in the minority party yet forget all of that when they win majorities.

04-cheers
11-17-2017 07:46 PM
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bubbapt Offline
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Post: #37
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
Europe and East Asia have been very lucrative this year.
11-17-2017 11:17 PM
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Post: #38
RE: U.S. Dollar - An Ignored Issue?
(11-17-2017 07:46 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(11-17-2017 07:25 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(11-17-2017 07:12 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Why is it you never see this sort of thing from the left when a Democrat is an office? If you posted that when ya boy Obama was racking up record deficits and record debt totals amid ****** stagflation and a weak dollar I'd be the first to cheer you right now. Maybe you did and you can joyously prove me wrong. But I doubt you did. And so while this post is soooooooo close to being meaningful, I can't shake the feeling that it is really a nice wallpaper placed over partisanship.

That goes right along with politicians caring about the debt and deficits whenever they are in the minority party yet forget all of that when they win majorities.

04-cheers

Lot's of republicans don't feel that way... not necessarily politicians, but 'republicans'.

I've never heard of a DINO, have any of you? At least Republicans have a WORD for someone who doesn't embrace those tenants of republican government, not to mention the Tea Party
11-20-2017 11:16 AM
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